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'Dangerous Scenario': Strong Dollar To Take Down Weak China
危险来临：强势美元将拿下虚弱中国
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gord ... ke-down-weak-china/
Just hours after the Federal Open MarketCommittee announced the end of its bond-buying program, Xinhua News Agencyissued an article explaining how China’s economy was put at risk by thelong-awaited move. Beijing, among emerging market capitals, is especiallynervous about the Fed’s exit from the six-year, $3.9 trillion effort.

Ma Guangyuan, an independent Beijing-basedeconomist, told Xinhua, the official media outlet, that two things are certainin the wake of Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed: the dollar will go higherand dollars will flow from emerging markets back home.
龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
At first glance, China should be relativelyimmune from a strengthening greenback. After all, the renminbi is essentiallytied to the dollar as the People’s Bank of China , the central bank, makes surethe Chinese currency trades near a mid-point it fixes every trading day.
在联邦公开市场委员会公布结束其债券购买前的几个小时，新华社发表了一篇文章解释了中国经济如何被这个期待已久的举措置于危险境地。北京比其他的新兴经济体对美联储退出6年3.9万亿宽松刺激更加忧虑。
马光远，一位独立的北京经济学家，告诉官方媒体新华社，美联储周三的公告将会伴随而来的两件事是：美元汇率将走强，美元将会从新兴经济体回流美国。
乍看上去，中国应该相对而言对走强的绿钞是有免疫力。别忘了央行中国人民银行会确保中国货币每个交易日内在其制定的基准点附近只能小幅波动，人民币汇率实质上是紧盯美元的。
Consequently, there should be no rush outof the yuan, as the renminbi is informally known, into safe-haven Americanmoney. Yet China is only theoretically immune from the crises that ravishedEast Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998, both triggered by a strong buck.
因此元（人民币的正式称谓）不会陷入回流避险美元的洪流中。然而强势美元在1997年东亚、1998年俄罗斯引发的金融危机中，中国只是理论上不受影响。
For one thing, the link between the Chineseand American currencies costs China dearly: a rising dollar pushes the renminbihigher and the Chinese economy lower. Net exports, dependent on a cheap currency,are now the main prop for China’s growth as consumption is falling andinvestment stagnating. A strengthening renminbi will not affect sales to theU.S., China’s most important customer, but it will price Chinese manufacturersout of their newest markets, where margins are already thin.
龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
As a result of the stronger currency,Beijing will essentially have three choices to create growth. First, it canimplement structural reform, something it has been reluctant to do and which inany event will not produce results in the short-term. Second, Chinesetechnocrats can resort to even more state stimulus, but that stratagem hasalready lost much of its effectiveness. Third, the central bank can engineer adecline in the yuan, something it did in the beginning of this year.
首先，中国与美国货币的紧盯让中国付出沉重代价：上升的美元让人民币汇率走强、中国经济被打压。在内需不振、投资停滞的时候，中国增长的主要支柱就是有赖于廉价货币的净出口。汇率走强的人民币不会影响对美国--中国最重要的客户的销售，但却会让中国制造商本来就已经利润微薄的产品在其他新兴市场上价格过高。
作为强势货币的后果，中国要保持增长基本上只有三个选项。首先，可以考虑结构改革，这是之前不情愿而且也不太可能在短期内产生效果。其次，中国专家可以可以考虑刺激全国性措施，这招业已越来越不灵了。第三，央行可以谋划元的走弱，正如今年年初所做的那样。

Another round of depreciating the currency,however, is probably the last thing Chinese leaders should be thinking about atthis particular time. As Ma Guangyuan, the economist, told Xinhua, the end ofthe Fed’s bond-buying will surely suck money out of emerging economies. Chinais close to the top of the list of countries bound to be hurt.

In the first months of this year Beijingcrushed speculators betting on a rising yuan by borrowing dollars, the “carrytrade” as it is called. Yet now the general flow of currency is inthe other direction. In Q3, outflows triggered a surprising drop in thecountry’s foreign currency reserves of $100 billion.
不过，此时再发动新一轮的货币贬值或许应该是中国领导人迫不得已去考虑的最后一个选项。正如经济学家马光远对新华社所说的，美联储不再购买债券肯定会使得资金从新兴经济体回流。而中国几乎肯定会是首当其冲的受害者。
在今年的头几个月里，面对升值压力北京通过借入美元打压套息交易投机者。不过现在资金的综合流向发生了逆转。在第三季度，资金外流引发该国的外汇储备出乎意料的下降了1000亿美金。
And there is a lot more money to flow out.Chinese borrowers have gorged on cheap greenbacks in the past half decade, manyof them from Hong Kong. Some believe China’s share of the global carry tradeapproaches $2 trillion, and perhaps half of recent lending to emerging marketshas been to the country’s ravenous borrowers. Worryingly, about four-fifths ofsuch loans to China are for maturities of less than a year. At higherrates—perhaps coming next year—some of these loans may end up looking as bad bets, and banks might be unwilling to roll them over.
还有更大量的资金即将流出。中国的借贷人在过去的6年里吞下了巨量的廉价美金，这些资金有许多是来自香港。有人认为中国占全球套息交易额度达到2万亿美元，可能占最近流向新兴市场的一半左右资金流向了该国饥渴的借贷人。让人忧虑的是，大约五分之四借给中国的贷款其到期日短于一年，在明年利息提高之后，这些借贷可能会以套利失败告终，银行也很可能不会延期。
As Citigroup C -0.11%’sGuilermo Mondino and David Lubin note, the combination of increasing short-termU.S. rates and a “more volatile” yuan could create “a dangerous scenario” of “arather large capital outflow from China.”
The majority of analysts are not especiallyconcerned about “fickle” money, however. “China is somewhat of a unique casegiven the degree of state control over the system, and so we don’t think afinancial crisis is likely,” notes Julian Evans-Pritchard of CapitalEconomics to CNN Money.
花旗集团（Citigroup）的吉列尔莫·蒙迪诺（Guilermo Mondino）和大卫·鲁宾（DavidLubin）指出，短期美国利率上升和“更加不稳定”的人民币这两件事的组合将会导致“一个危险的情况”即“中国相当巨量的资本流出”。
不过大部分的分析家并不是特别的担心“反复无常”的资金。CNN财经负责资本经济的Julian Evans-Pritchard 指出：“中国是个特例，国家对金融系统的控制程度是空前的，因此我们并不认为会发生金融危机。”
It is true Beijing maintains a tightlycontrolled financial system, including a high currency wall, but China’scurrency regulators are usually no match for inventive, deceptive, anddetermined speculators. September’s import and export numbers reveal how porousthe country’s borders are. During that month exports were up an astounding 15.3%.The number, however, was undoubtedly inaccurate as there was a surge of salesto Hong Kong. China reported it exported $37.6 billion to Hong Kong, but HongKong said it imported only $24.1 billion from China.
北京虽然对金融系统控制牢固，有一堵高大的货币长城，但是中国的金融监管者与那些非凡的、狡黠的、意志坚定的投机者无法相提并论。9月份的进出口数据就可以看得出来该国的监管漏洞百出。9月的出口令人震惊的增加了15.3%，这个数字毫无疑问是不准确的，里边包括了对香港出口的激增。中国的报告称其对香港的出口数字是376美元，而香港称自中国的进口额是241美元。
The difference is largely attributed tospeculators sending cash into the People’s Republic, perhaps to take advantageof an anticipated rise in Shanghai stocks when the Shanghai and Hong Kongmarkets are linked. September’s suspicious export number brought to mind thefictitious figures of last spring, a sign of another boutof hot money inflows involving Hong Kong.
差值大部分可以归结于看好沪港通而将资金汇入人民共和国的投机者。九月份可疑的出口数字让我们记起去年春季的虚幻数字，一个热钱类似的经由香港流入的信号。
And on the other side of the ledger,September imports were up 7.0%. Consensus estimates for themonth had imports down 2.7%. The difference? Undoubtedly,hot money flowing out, perhaps disguised by paperwork for goods allegedlycoming from South Korea.
而在另一方面，九月份的出口数字上升了7.0%。舆论认为该月份的进口实际上下降了2.7%。差额哪去了？毫无疑问，是热钱在流出，也许是通过与韩国的虚假货物贸易来掩饰。
The Federal Open Market Committee onWednesday pledged to keep interest rates near zero “for a considerable time.”When speculators want to exit China—either when the Fed raises rates or beforethen—they will take their cash out as they please. Beijing, it is now clear,cannot enforce its currency rules.
联邦公开市场委员会周三保证，将“在相当长的时间内“维持利息接近于0。当美联储加息时或之前，如果投机者想退出中国，他们将会如愿以偿的将资金流出。北京现在应该明白，她是无法控制的。

以下是读者评论：
laoqiao 1 week ago
The value of the yuan has always beenartificial.
人民币的币值一直是人为操控的。
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Rick Montalban Rick Montalban 1 week ago
“Net exports, dependent on a cheap currency, are now the main propfor China’s growth as consumption is falling and investment stagnating. ”

Jesus, get the facts straight Gordo!Aren’t you supposed to be an economist? China’s service sector is the MAINdriver of growth in China as of 2013. And just by looking at the manufacturingand service PMIs, you can see which sector is getting larger and in turncontributing the most to China’s GDP growth.
“在内需不振、投资停滞的时候，中国增长的主要支柱就是有赖于廉价货币的净出口。“
天啊，家敦，让我们搞清楚事实吧！你究竟是不是个经济学家？2013年中国的服务业才是经济增长的主要引擎。只需要看看制造业和服务业的PMI指数，你就能发现哪个板块在变得更大、对中国的GDP增长贡献最多。
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MrAndiconda MrAndiconda MrAndicondaMrAndiconda 1 week ago
Fiat currency, we are all tired of it
法定货币，我们都受够了。
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andrew li andrew li 1 week ago
Gordan, what’s the point of keep spittingmore venom? Everything you said about China is wrong so far.
家敦，不知道你为何继续抹黑？迄今为止你所说的关于中国的一切都是错的。
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Robert Fisher Robert Fisher 1 week ago
This guy is certifiably crazy. Really.
这家伙是个被鉴定完毕的疯子。真的。
The problem is that there are too manyinsane and illogical people in the US that pay attention to this kind of trash.
问题是美国有太多这样愚蠢无理之人，他们只关心这种废话。
Has he been on drugs the whole time Chinahas been replacing the IMF, winning every global infrastructure contract,contracting for every major (non-american) natural resource on the planet,forging strong ties with almost every country in the world, and increasing itsown societal wealth every single year?
是不是在不停的攻击中国诸如取代IMF、攫取所有的基建合同、承包所有的主要（非美）资源合同、加强与几乎所有国家的联系、每年都在提高其社会财富的时候，他都是在吸毒的同时？
Is Mr. Chang still drinking the “we mustbuild our economy on the defense industry” coolaid? Remember….he is a defenseindustry consultant. The fact that he “consults” on nuclear proliferation afterwriting this load of crap is really scary.
章先生是否还在孩童般的复读“我们必须将经济建立在国防工业之上”？大家别忘了，他是国防工业顾问。在读完这坨垃圾之后，他为核扩散的“献策”的事实让人不寒而栗。
The idea that the RMB is tied to the dollaris lunacy. The RMB is set to trade a mark set by the Chinese government becauseEVERYONE KNOWS (except Mr. Chang) that the dollar is controlled byinternational banks and has no real value due to the debt of the nation. If theRMB was allowed to float, then these same bankers could cause serious damage tothe people’s currency in China. If the bankers start playing “economic war”against China, then China simply responds by setting a new fixed exchange pointthat will continue to benefit the Chinese people.
人民币紧盯美元的观点很愚蠢。人民币交易点是由中国政府设定的，这是因为大家（除了章先生以外）都知道美元是被跨国银行操控、由于美国债务缠身其实没有真正价值。如果人民币可以自由浮动，这些银行家将会让中国遭受严重损失。当银行家们发动针对中国的“金融战争”时，中国只需要设定一个新的交易中间点就可以继续造福中国人民。
Face it Gordon. China does not play by thecorrupt rules of the international bankers. Your article is completepropaganda……as is your career.
面对现实吧家敦。中国不会按那些国际银行家们的规矩出牌的。你的文章只是一篇洗脑文。。。正如你的职业。
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famulla12 famulla12 1 week ago
GOOD NEWS??? Banks are unlikely to lowertheir lending rates unless there are clear indications of a sustained dip ininflation.
好消息？？？除非通胀有持续的下降，否则银行肯定不会降低贷款利率。
Retail inflation in terms of consumer price index eased to 6.46 per cent inSeptember from 7.72 per cent in August, strengthening the case for lowerinterest rates to boost the economy. However, bankers said they would like towait and watch the trend instead of having to reverse a decision if inflationrevives before cutting lending rates.

“Inflation is softening. But one will have to assess how sustained willthis softening (before taking a call on rates) be,” said Arun Tiwari,chairman and managing director of Union Bank. “At the industry level, rates canbe brought down on certain brackets of deposits depending on each bank’s assetliability position. But one could expect a base rate revision only afterDecember
以消费者价格指数为参考的零售通胀，九月份是6.46%，比八月份的7.72%要温和，增加了降息以提振经济的可能系。不过银行家们称要再等等、观察观察接下来的走势是否逆转再决定是否降息，以免反复。
“通胀是在缓解。不过（在讨论降息前）我们需要评价这种缓解是否能持续，”联合银行董事长兼总经理Arun Tiwari称。“在行业层面，特定类别的储蓄利率可以依据各家银行的资产负载负债水平降低。不过基准利率预料在12月以后才会调整。”
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Marie Arouet Marie Arouet 1 week ago
Gordon Chang has been predicting the fallof the Chinese economy for 15 years. During this time the Chinese economy hastripled in size. He still can’t figure out the currency issue. For one he saysthe U.S. dollar has been cheap (not true with almost zero interest rate) andChinese have been gorging on it for a decade, then he says that the Yuan ispegged to the dollar (also not true), then he says the Chinese manipulate theircurrency as if no other nation (ever heard of QE and Fed interest rates, inU.S. or Japan?) do so. Thanks Gordon for another piece of vacuous trash.
章家墩在过去的15年间都在预言中国崩溃。在这期间中国经济规模增至三倍。他还是没整明白货币问题。首先他认为美元之前廉价（在几乎是零利率的情况下这是不对的）并且中国人在过去的十来年间一直吃进，接着他又说人民币紧盯美元（同样是错的），然后又说中国人操控汇率，好像是其他国家从来没干过这事（听说过美国或日本版的QE和美联储利率吗？）。谢谢家墩制造了又一篇空洞的废文。
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DiDi Wu DiDi Wu 1 week ago
The author made one assumption in hisscenario. The US can unilaterally strengthen or weaken the $$. But he forgotthat current trade is a 2 way affair, and the Chinese has enough US reserve toaffect it too. Moreover, the Chinese can unilaterally manipulate their Yuan (doyou have Yuan reserve to play?).
作者在他的剧本里有个假设，就是美国可以单方面做强或做弱美元，不过他忘记了交易应该是双向的，而中国拥有充足的美元储备去改变走势。再者，中国人可以单方面操控人民币汇率（你有人民币储备可以玩吗？）。
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hc lee hc lee 1 week ago
Chang likes to specialize in scare articleson China; so far none of his doom scenarios seems to have panned out. Ofcourse, one cannot predict the future by extrapolation, so this time he justmight be right.
章是关于中国的骇人文章专家，至今为止他那些末日场景从未在现实中出现过。当然，没人能够靠推理去预告未来，所以这次他有可能是对的。
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Howard Lee Howard Lee 1 week ago
There is an old saying that goes like this,“there is no such thing as bad publicity”.
有句老话：“世上没有坏的新闻媒体”。
Gordan Chang has been wrong about China forso long that at this point, he is just receiving scorn.
章家墩在这么长的时间里关于中国的说法都是错的，现在迎接他的只有嘲笑。
But receiving notoriety for being wrong isstill better than irrelevance for someone making a career injournalism.
然而坚持错误的臭名与从事新闻行业似乎毫不相干。
So while China’s economyhas gone from half the size of Canada’ 20 years ago totwice the size of Japan’s today and projected to surpass the US by the early 2020′s, GordanChang has been and will continue to be bearish on China.
因此当中国经济从20年前加拿大的一半变成现今日本的两倍、预计将会在2020年前超过美国的期间，章家墩仍在并且仍将看衰中国。
All the while his notoriety and the scornhe will receive for being wrong will carry his career. Again, “there is no suchthing as bad publicity”.
与此同时他坚持错误的臭名与笑柄将提携他的事业。再次证明: “世上没有坏的新闻媒体”。

Paromita Raghwa 6 days ago
Chang, firstly I must congratulate you on avery deep, fair and enlightening article on the upcoming APEC meet. Theunderstanding of the current world economic condition and the historicalperspective on how we reached here you provide is a clear mirror into yourdeep, unbiased perspective on the subject. I do have few clarification oncertain points that you raised :
章，首先我要恭喜你在APEC会议前写了一篇非常深刻、合理且让人茅塞顿开的文章。对现今世界经济问题的理解及基于史实的角度对我们如何走到这一步你提供了一幅深刻的、不偏不倚的明镜。我有不多的几个问题希望请教：
1. The fact that US and other nations helped Chinaenhance its global trade, I do wonder what could be business reasons, if any,behind this obviously philanthropic gesture of US and Europe ( I presume as the“other countries”)? And reasons in your opinion that they may not continue thishelp going forward?
1. 美国及其他国家帮助中国增强其国际贸易能力的证据，我很好奇是基于什么样的商业理由，美国或者欧洲（及我所指的“其他国家”）做出这些明显过于博爱的姿态？为何他们又不再继续帮助了呢？
2. The good work which has been done by US, EU dulysupported by IMF , WTO and World Bank is known to most of us. History alsotells us how NAFTA, WTO agreements have helpother nations and was wondering why you didn’t elaborate on benefits that Asiancountries can expect from TPP?
2. 那些美国、欧盟及时的通过IMF、WTO和世界银行所做的好事大家都知道。历史也告诉过大家NAFTA、WTO之类的协议是如何帮助其他国家的，我很好奇为何你不详细说明亚洲国家可以从TPP中得到何种好处？
3.TPP in fact ignore many countries BRICS nations besides China, do you have anydata on what could be getting missed by US and Japan in terms of potentialbusiness by not including china, India and Russia? Reasons why??
3. TPP实际上排除了除中国以外的许多国家，包括金砖国家，你有排除中国、印度及俄罗斯之后美国、日本将会损失的潜在生意的数据吗？什么理由？？
4. Youmentioned about debt of china and how it may be calamitous in future, do youhave any views on debts of US, Japan ?
Iknow that you are not a propaganda bull horn for US/Japan and I can get somekeen insight on these areas from you. Thanks in advance
4. 你提到关于中国的债务及将来可能的灾难，你有看过美国、日本的债务吗？
我知道你不是美国、日本的宣传机器，你是它们的号角，我能从你那里得到些真知灼见。先谢过了。
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http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-324896-1-1.html'Dangerous Scenario': Strong Dollar To Take Down Weak China
危险来临：强势美元将拿下虚弱中国
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gord ... ke-down-weak-china/
Just hours after the Federal Open MarketCommittee announced the end of its bond-buying program, Xinhua News Agencyissued an article explaining how China’s economy was put at risk by thelong-awaited move. Beijing, among emerging market capitals, is especiallynervous about the Fed’s exit from the six-year, $3.9 trillion effort.

Ma Guangyuan, an independent Beijing-basedeconomist, told Xinhua, the official media outlet, that two things are certainin the wake of Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed: the dollar will go higherand dollars will flow from emerging markets back home.
龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
At first glance, China should be relativelyimmune from a strengthening greenback. After all, the renminbi is essentiallytied to the dollar as the People’s Bank of China , the central bank, makes surethe Chinese currency trades near a mid-point it fixes every trading day.
在联邦公开市场委员会公布结束其债券购买前的几个小时，新华社发表了一篇文章解释了中国经济如何被这个期待已久的举措置于危险境地。北京比其他的新兴经济体对美联储退出6年3.9万亿宽松刺激更加忧虑。
马光远，一位独立的北京经济学家，告诉官方媒体新华社，美联储周三的公告将会伴随而来的两件事是：美元汇率将走强，美元将会从新兴经济体回流美国。
乍看上去，中国应该相对而言对走强的绿钞是有免疫力。别忘了央行中国人民银行会确保中国货币每个交易日内在其制定的基准点附近只能小幅波动，人民币汇率实质上是紧盯美元的。
Consequently, there should be no rush outof the yuan, as the renminbi is informally known, into safe-haven Americanmoney. Yet China is only theoretically immune from the crises that ravishedEast Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998, both triggered by a strong buck.
因此元（人民币的正式称谓）不会陷入回流避险美元的洪流中。然而强势美元在1997年东亚、1998年俄罗斯引发的金融危机中，中国只是理论上不受影响。
For one thing, the link between the Chineseand American currencies costs China dearly: a rising dollar pushes the renminbihigher and the Chinese economy lower. Net exports, dependent on a cheap currency,are now the main prop for China’s growth as consumption is falling andinvestment stagnating. A strengthening renminbi will not affect sales to theU.S., China’s most important customer, but it will price Chinese manufacturersout of their newest markets, where margins are already thin.
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As a result of the stronger currency,Beijing will essentially have three choices to create growth. First, it canimplement structural reform, something it has been reluctant to do and which inany event will not produce results in the short-term. Second, Chinesetechnocrats can resort to even more state stimulus, but that stratagem hasalready lost much of its effectiveness. Third, the central bank can engineer adecline in the yuan, something it did in the beginning of this year.
首先，中国与美国货币的紧盯让中国付出沉重代价：上升的美元让人民币汇率走强、中国经济被打压。在内需不振、投资停滞的时候，中国增长的主要支柱就是有赖于廉价货币的净出口。汇率走强的人民币不会影响对美国--中国最重要的客户的销售，但却会让中国制造商本来就已经利润微薄的产品在其他新兴市场上价格过高。
作为强势货币的后果，中国要保持增长基本上只有三个选项。首先，可以考虑结构改革，这是之前不情愿而且也不太可能在短期内产生效果。其次，中国专家可以可以考虑刺激全国性措施，这招业已越来越不灵了。第三，央行可以谋划元的走弱，正如今年年初所做的那样。

Another round of depreciating the currency,however, is probably the last thing Chinese leaders should be thinking about atthis particular time. As Ma Guangyuan, the economist, told Xinhua, the end ofthe Fed’s bond-buying will surely suck money out of emerging economies. Chinais close to the top of the list of countries bound to be hurt.

In the first months of this year Beijingcrushed speculators betting on a rising yuan by borrowing dollars, the “carrytrade” as it is called. Yet now the general flow of currency is inthe other direction. In Q3, outflows triggered a surprising drop in thecountry’s foreign currency reserves of $100 billion.
不过，此时再发动新一轮的货币贬值或许应该是中国领导人迫不得已去考虑的最后一个选项。正如经济学家马光远对新华社所说的，美联储不再购买债券肯定会使得资金从新兴经济体回流。而中国几乎肯定会是首当其冲的受害者。
在今年的头几个月里，面对升值压力北京通过借入美元打压套息交易投机者。不过现在资金的综合流向发生了逆转。在第三季度，资金外流引发该国的外汇储备出乎意料的下降了1000亿美金。
And there is a lot more money to flow out.Chinese borrowers have gorged on cheap greenbacks in the past half decade, manyof them from Hong Kong. Some believe China’s share of the global carry tradeapproaches $2 trillion, and perhaps half of recent lending to emerging marketshas been to the country’s ravenous borrowers. Worryingly, about four-fifths ofsuch loans to China are for maturities of less than a year. At higherrates—perhaps coming next year—some of these loans may end up looking as bad bets, and banks might be unwilling to roll them over.
还有更大量的资金即将流出。中国的借贷人在过去的6年里吞下了巨量的廉价美金，这些资金有许多是来自香港。有人认为中国占全球套息交易额度达到2万亿美元，可能占最近流向新兴市场的一半左右资金流向了该国饥渴的借贷人。让人忧虑的是，大约五分之四借给中国的贷款其到期日短于一年，在明年利息提高之后，这些借贷可能会以套利失败告终，银行也很可能不会延期。
As Citigroup C -0.11%’sGuilermo Mondino and David Lubin note, the combination of increasing short-termU.S. rates and a “more volatile” yuan could create “a dangerous scenario” of “arather large capital outflow from China.”
The majority of analysts are not especiallyconcerned about “fickle” money, however. “China is somewhat of a unique casegiven the degree of state control over the system, and so we don’t think afinancial crisis is likely,” notes Julian Evans-Pritchard of CapitalEconomics to CNN Money.
花旗集团（Citigroup）的吉列尔莫·蒙迪诺（Guilermo Mondino）和大卫·鲁宾（DavidLubin）指出，短期美国利率上升和“更加不稳定”的人民币这两件事的组合将会导致“一个危险的情况”即“中国相当巨量的资本流出”。
不过大部分的分析家并不是特别的担心“反复无常”的资金。CNN财经负责资本经济的Julian Evans-Pritchard 指出：“中国是个特例，国家对金融系统的控制程度是空前的，因此我们并不认为会发生金融危机。”
It is true Beijing maintains a tightlycontrolled financial system, including a high currency wall, but China’scurrency regulators are usually no match for inventive, deceptive, anddetermined speculators. September’s import and export numbers reveal how porousthe country’s borders are. During that month exports were up an astounding 15.3%.The number, however, was undoubtedly inaccurate as there was a surge of salesto Hong Kong. China reported it exported $37.6 billion to Hong Kong, but HongKong said it imported only $24.1 billion from China.
北京虽然对金融系统控制牢固，有一堵高大的货币长城，但是中国的金融监管者与那些非凡的、狡黠的、意志坚定的投机者无法相提并论。9月份的进出口数据就可以看得出来该国的监管漏洞百出。9月的出口令人震惊的增加了15.3%，这个数字毫无疑问是不准确的，里边包括了对香港出口的激增。中国的报告称其对香港的出口数字是376美元，而香港称自中国的进口额是241美元。
The difference is largely attributed tospeculators sending cash into the People’s Republic, perhaps to take advantageof an anticipated rise in Shanghai stocks when the Shanghai and Hong Kongmarkets are linked. September’s suspicious export number brought to mind thefictitious figures of last spring, a sign of another boutof hot money inflows involving Hong Kong.
差值大部分可以归结于看好沪港通而将资金汇入人民共和国的投机者。九月份可疑的出口数字让我们记起去年春季的虚幻数字，一个热钱类似的经由香港流入的信号。
And on the other side of the ledger,September imports were up 7.0%. Consensus estimates for themonth had imports down 2.7%. The difference? Undoubtedly,hot money flowing out, perhaps disguised by paperwork for goods allegedlycoming from South Korea.
而在另一方面，九月份的出口数字上升了7.0%。舆论认为该月份的进口实际上下降了2.7%。差额哪去了？毫无疑问，是热钱在流出，也许是通过与韩国的虚假货物贸易来掩饰。
The Federal Open Market Committee onWednesday pledged to keep interest rates near zero “for a considerable time.”When speculators want to exit China—either when the Fed raises rates or beforethen—they will take their cash out as they please. Beijing, it is now clear,cannot enforce its currency rules.
联邦公开市场委员会周三保证，将“在相当长的时间内“维持利息接近于0。当美联储加息时或之前，如果投机者想退出中国，他们将会如愿以偿的将资金流出。北京现在应该明白，她是无法控制的。

以下是读者评论：
laoqiao 1 week ago
The value of the yuan has always beenartificial.
人民币的币值一直是人为操控的。
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Rick Montalban Rick Montalban 1 week ago
“Net exports, dependent on a cheap currency, are now the main propfor China’s growth as consumption is falling and investment stagnating. ”

Jesus, get the facts straight Gordo!Aren’t you supposed to be an economist? China’s service sector is the MAINdriver of growth in China as of 2013. And just by looking at the manufacturingand service PMIs, you can see which sector is getting larger and in turncontributing the most to China’s GDP growth.
“在内需不振、投资停滞的时候，中国增长的主要支柱就是有赖于廉价货币的净出口。“
天啊，家敦，让我们搞清楚事实吧！你究竟是不是个经济学家？2013年中国的服务业才是经济增长的主要引擎。只需要看看制造业和服务业的PMI指数，你就能发现哪个板块在变得更大、对中国的GDP增长贡献最多。
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MrAndiconda MrAndiconda MrAndicondaMrAndiconda 1 week ago
Fiat currency, we are all tired of it
法定货币，我们都受够了。
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andrew li andrew li 1 week ago
Gordan, what’s the point of keep spittingmore venom? Everything you said about China is wrong so far.
家敦，不知道你为何继续抹黑？迄今为止你所说的关于中国的一切都是错的。
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Robert Fisher Robert Fisher 1 week ago
This guy is certifiably crazy. Really.
这家伙是个被鉴定完毕的疯子。真的。
The problem is that there are too manyinsane and illogical people in the US that pay attention to this kind of trash.
问题是美国有太多这样愚蠢无理之人，他们只关心这种废话。
Has he been on drugs the whole time Chinahas been replacing the IMF, winning every global infrastructure contract,contracting for every major (non-american) natural resource on the planet,forging strong ties with almost every country in the world, and increasing itsown societal wealth every single year?
是不是在不停的攻击中国诸如取代IMF、攫取所有的基建合同、承包所有的主要（非美）资源合同、加强与几乎所有国家的联系、每年都在提高其社会财富的时候，他都是在吸毒的同时？
Is Mr. Chang still drinking the “we mustbuild our economy on the defense industry” coolaid? Remember….he is a defenseindustry consultant. The fact that he “consults” on nuclear proliferation afterwriting this load of crap is really scary.
章先生是否还在孩童般的复读“我们必须将经济建立在国防工业之上”？大家别忘了，他是国防工业顾问。在读完这坨垃圾之后，他为核扩散的“献策”的事实让人不寒而栗。
The idea that the RMB is tied to the dollaris lunacy. The RMB is set to trade a mark set by the Chinese government becauseEVERYONE KNOWS (except Mr. Chang) that the dollar is controlled byinternational banks and has no real value due to the debt of the nation. If theRMB was allowed to float, then these same bankers could cause serious damage tothe people’s currency in China. If the bankers start playing “economic war”against China, then China simply responds by setting a new fixed exchange pointthat will continue to benefit the Chinese people.
人民币紧盯美元的观点很愚蠢。人民币交易点是由中国政府设定的，这是因为大家（除了章先生以外）都知道美元是被跨国银行操控、由于美国债务缠身其实没有真正价值。如果人民币可以自由浮动，这些银行家将会让中国遭受严重损失。当银行家们发动针对中国的“金融战争”时，中国只需要设定一个新的交易中间点就可以继续造福中国人民。
Face it Gordon. China does not play by thecorrupt rules of the international bankers. Your article is completepropaganda……as is your career.
面对现实吧家敦。中国不会按那些国际银行家们的规矩出牌的。你的文章只是一篇洗脑文。。。正如你的职业。
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famulla12 famulla12 1 week ago
GOOD NEWS??? Banks are unlikely to lowertheir lending rates unless there are clear indications of a sustained dip ininflation.
好消息？？？除非通胀有持续的下降，否则银行肯定不会降低贷款利率。
Retail inflation in terms of consumer price index eased to 6.46 per cent inSeptember from 7.72 per cent in August, strengthening the case for lowerinterest rates to boost the economy. However, bankers said they would like towait and watch the trend instead of having to reverse a decision if inflationrevives before cutting lending rates.

“Inflation is softening. But one will have to assess how sustained willthis softening (before taking a call on rates) be,” said Arun Tiwari,chairman and managing director of Union Bank. “At the industry level, rates canbe brought down on certain brackets of deposits depending on each bank’s assetliability position. But one could expect a base rate revision only afterDecember
以消费者价格指数为参考的零售通胀，九月份是6.46%，比八月份的7.72%要温和，增加了降息以提振经济的可能系。不过银行家们称要再等等、观察观察接下来的走势是否逆转再决定是否降息，以免反复。
“通胀是在缓解。不过（在讨论降息前）我们需要评价这种缓解是否能持续，”联合银行董事长兼总经理Arun Tiwari称。“在行业层面，特定类别的储蓄利率可以依据各家银行的资产负载负债水平降低。不过基准利率预料在12月以后才会调整。”
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Marie Arouet Marie Arouet 1 week ago
Gordon Chang has been predicting the fallof the Chinese economy for 15 years. During this time the Chinese economy hastripled in size. He still can’t figure out the currency issue. For one he saysthe U.S. dollar has been cheap (not true with almost zero interest rate) andChinese have been gorging on it for a decade, then he says that the Yuan ispegged to the dollar (also not true), then he says the Chinese manipulate theircurrency as if no other nation (ever heard of QE and Fed interest rates, inU.S. or Japan?) do so. Thanks Gordon for another piece of vacuous trash.
章家墩在过去的15年间都在预言中国崩溃。在这期间中国经济规模增至三倍。他还是没整明白货币问题。首先他认为美元之前廉价（在几乎是零利率的情况下这是不对的）并且中国人在过去的十来年间一直吃进，接着他又说人民币紧盯美元（同样是错的），然后又说中国人操控汇率，好像是其他国家从来没干过这事（听说过美国或日本版的QE和美联储利率吗？）。谢谢家墩制造了又一篇空洞的废文。
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DiDi Wu DiDi Wu 1 week ago
The author made one assumption in hisscenario. The US can unilaterally strengthen or weaken the $$. But he forgotthat current trade is a 2 way affair, and the Chinese has enough US reserve toaffect it too. Moreover, the Chinese can unilaterally manipulate their Yuan (doyou have Yuan reserve to play?).
作者在他的剧本里有个假设，就是美国可以单方面做强或做弱美元，不过他忘记了交易应该是双向的，而中国拥有充足的美元储备去改变走势。再者，中国人可以单方面操控人民币汇率（你有人民币储备可以玩吗？）。
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hc lee hc lee 1 week ago
Chang likes to specialize in scare articleson China; so far none of his doom scenarios seems to have panned out. Ofcourse, one cannot predict the future by extrapolation, so this time he justmight be right.
章是关于中国的骇人文章专家，至今为止他那些末日场景从未在现实中出现过。当然，没人能够靠推理去预告未来，所以这次他有可能是对的。
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Howard Lee Howard Lee 1 week ago
There is an old saying that goes like this,“there is no such thing as bad publicity”.
有句老话：“世上没有坏的新闻媒体”。
Gordan Chang has been wrong about China forso long that at this point, he is just receiving scorn.
章家墩在这么长的时间里关于中国的说法都是错的，现在迎接他的只有嘲笑。
But receiving notoriety for being wrong isstill better than irrelevance for someone making a career injournalism.
然而坚持错误的臭名与从事新闻行业似乎毫不相干。
So while China’s economyhas gone from half the size of Canada’ 20 years ago totwice the size of Japan’s today and projected to surpass the US by the early 2020′s, GordanChang has been and will continue to be bearish on China.
因此当中国经济从20年前加拿大的一半变成现今日本的两倍、预计将会在2020年前超过美国的期间，章家墩仍在并且仍将看衰中国。
All the while his notoriety and the scornhe will receive for being wrong will carry his career. Again, “there is no suchthing as bad publicity”.
与此同时他坚持错误的臭名与笑柄将提携他的事业。再次证明: “世上没有坏的新闻媒体”。

Paromita Raghwa 6 days ago
Chang, firstly I must congratulate you on avery deep, fair and enlightening article on the upcoming APEC meet. Theunderstanding of the current world economic condition and the historicalperspective on how we reached here you provide is a clear mirror into yourdeep, unbiased perspective on the subject. I do have few clarification oncertain points that you raised :
章，首先我要恭喜你在APEC会议前写了一篇非常深刻、合理且让人茅塞顿开的文章。对现今世界经济问题的理解及基于史实的角度对我们如何走到这一步你提供了一幅深刻的、不偏不倚的明镜。我有不多的几个问题希望请教：
1. The fact that US and other nations helped Chinaenhance its global trade, I do wonder what could be business reasons, if any,behind this obviously philanthropic gesture of US and Europe ( I presume as the“other countries”)? And reasons in your opinion that they may not continue thishelp going forward?
1. 美国及其他国家帮助中国增强其国际贸易能力的证据，我很好奇是基于什么样的商业理由，美国或者欧洲（及我所指的“其他国家”）做出这些明显过于博爱的姿态？为何他们又不再继续帮助了呢？
2. The good work which has been done by US, EU dulysupported by IMF , WTO and World Bank is known to most of us. History alsotells us how NAFTA, WTO agreements have helpother nations and was wondering why you didn’t elaborate on benefits that Asiancountries can expect from TPP?
2. 那些美国、欧盟及时的通过IMF、WTO和世界银行所做的好事大家都知道。历史也告诉过大家NAFTA、WTO之类的协议是如何帮助其他国家的，我很好奇为何你不详细说明亚洲国家可以从TPP中得到何种好处？
3.TPP in fact ignore many countries BRICS nations besides China, do you have anydata on what could be getting missed by US and Japan in terms of potentialbusiness by not including china, India and Russia? Reasons why??
3. TPP实际上排除了除中国以外的许多国家，包括金砖国家，你有排除中国、印度及俄罗斯之后美国、日本将会损失的潜在生意的数据吗？什么理由？？
4. Youmentioned about debt of china and how it may be calamitous in future, do youhave any views on debts of US, Japan ?
Iknow that you are not a propaganda bull horn for US/Japan and I can get somekeen insight on these areas from you. Thanks in advance
4. 你提到关于中国的债务及将来可能的灾难，你有看过美国、日本的债务吗？
我知道你不是美国、日本的宣传机器，你是它们的号角，我能从你那里得到些真知灼见。先谢过了。
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