美国的经济增长全都是一种幻觉

美国的经济增长全都是一种幻觉

November 6, 2014 | 6:22am

http://m.ltaaa.com/Index-article-pid-14855.html

As voters were coming out of thepolls on Tuesday, pesky reporters were asking why they voted the way they did — and what was goingthrough their heads?
The most popular response — from 45 percent ofthe voters — was the economy.
Only 28 percent said their families weredoing better financially.
The economy is always the major issue inan election during times like these.
So no one should have been shocked thatvoters took their anger out on the party that controls the White House, eventhough Republicans are just as much to blamefor our economy’sfailures.
John Harwood, a political reporter forCNBC, asked a very good question before the votes were counted: Why?
As in, “Why did people appear so angry and unhappywhen the stock market was at record levels, the unemployment rate is downsharply, inflation is subdued and the number of jobs is increasing?”
Harwood’s explanation was that the benefits ofthis economic growth weren’t being evenly distributedand were being felt only by the blessed in the American economy — the upper 1 percent, if you will.
Harwood is only a little right. Yes, theeconomy is blessing the few and leaving the rest of us in limbo.
What Harwood and the rest of the folkswho rely solely on Washington’s mainstream thinkers and Wall Street boosters for theirinformation don’t realize is this: The economy isn’t really doing what the statistics say it is doing.

周二，正值选民们都出来投票，讨厌的记者们就问他们，为何而投？想要达到目的是什么？
多数人的回答——来自45%的选民——（表示）是经济。
只有28%的选民表示是为了让他们的家庭财务状况能变得更好点。
每到选举的这个时候，经济就毫无例外地变成焦点话题。
因此没人对选民迁怒于（民主）党所操控的白宫感到意外，尽管同共和党们指责我们经济失败（的原因）一样。
约翰哈伍德，CNBC政治专栏记者，在投票结果出来前，就抛出个相当有趣的问题：为什么？
其中的意思是，“当股票市场达到创纪录水平，失业率下降，通胀减缓，就业数量增长，人们为什么还表现出如此的愤怒和悲观？“
哈伍德的解释是，经济增长所带来的好处分布不均。美国经济涨1个百分点，你就会感到有一种被祝福的感觉。
哈伍德只说对了一点。是的，经济是祝福到了一少部分人，但剩下的大部分仍处在地狱边缘。
哈伍德和其他的人唯有依靠华盛顿主流思想家和华尔街死忠们，对于他们手中数据，没意识到：经济并不是如实进行所谓的统计，就说它起到效果了。

Our nation’s economic statistics are nipped andtucked, massaged, managed, fabricated and dolled up.
In short, our statistics are wrong andMain Street folks know it.
Here’s what a Wall Street hedge fundmogul, Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management Corp., told his clients theother day:
“Nobody can predict howlong governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fakefinancial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth,” Singer wrote. “When confidence is lost,that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets andsectors.”
I’m glad someone is reading my column.
But it’s not like Singer — whom I don’t know —was willing to say that out loud so that everyone could understand. He wrotethat in his newsletter to his clients.
So, shhhhh! It’s a secret. Don’t tell Americans that the economy isn’tdoing so well. (Oh, that’s right, they’ve already caught on.)
I won’t get into the year-long investigationI have been conducting into the Census Bureau’s faulty economic data. Now that the Republicans control both housesof Congress, I’m sure what is going on at Census willbe looked at very carefully.
But fabrication of data isn’t the only problem.Put enough academics and statisticians in a room and they can turn anystatistic into something it isn’t. Let’s use Singer’slist.

我们国家的经济统计数据是被动过手脚并掩盖过的，是被修改、设计、编造并精心打扮过的
一句话，我们的统计数据是错的，街上的人都知道。
此刻有位所谓的华尔街对冲基金大亨，保罗辛格，埃利奥特管理公司的主管，几天前曾对他的客户说：
“没人能猜到政府要多久才能摆脱掉假增长，假财富，假就业，假金融稳定，假通胀数据和假收入增长”辛格说道。“一旦信心丢失，损失可能会变得极其惨重而突然，同时一些市场和行业也会被波及。”
我非常高兴有人在读我的专栏。
但我和辛格不同——管他呢——想要说就大声说出来让大家都明白。他在短讯中给他的客户写道。
所以…嘘~，这是个秘密。可千万别让美国人知道，现在的经济其实没那么好。(啊，对了，现在都已流传开了)
我不会去进行长达一年的深入调查，但我会一直盯着人口财产普查局错误的经济数据。现在，共和党拿下了国会参众两院，我知道该怎样接近人口财产普查局，我会很小心的去一探究竟。
但数据造假并不是唯一的问题。把足够的学者和统计学家塞到一个屋子里，他们可以把任何统计数据还原成它原本面目，是吧？让我们看看辛格都得出了什么结果。

Fake growth: The USeconomy is growing moderately. That’s pretty much certain — but it’s notgrowing as fast as the government would have you believe. The CommerceDepartment recently pegged third-quarter growth at a 3.5 percent annual rate —but earlier this week, some real numbers came out. Our exports declined in thethird quarter  and construction spending was weak. So that 3.5 percent guesswill probably be revised down to a 2.9 percent annual rate on those numbersalone. But Singer is probably also referring to the artificially low inflationnumber that Commerce uses in its GDP calculations. If inflation were measuredcorrectly, GDP growth for all years might be 30 percent lower than reported.

Fake money: Singeris referring to the $4 trillion in dough the Federal Reserve printed underquantitative easing that has resulted in millions of regular folks not gettingmuch interest income and, therefore, they’re cutting back spending. That’s whythe economy is weak.

Fake jobs: TheLabor Department adds hundreds of thousandsof jobs a year to its count for positions it thinks, but can’t prove, are beingcreated by new companies. This practice, which has gone on for decades, needsto be investigated. On Friday, Labor is expected to report job growth of230,000 for October. That figure will be boosted by another heapingserving of job guesstimates.

Fake financial stability: Theartificially low interest rates are not only propping up banks andWall Street profits but also making the US government’s financial position lookbetter than reality. If Washington had to pay market rates for themoney it borrows, the US budget deficit and debt levels — alreadyexcessive — would be worse.

Fakeinflation numbers: Commerce doesn’t only play trickswith the inflation number used to calculate the GDP. It also tamps down theconsumer price index — and cheats Social Security recipients andothers — through academically approved methods likegeometric weighting and hedonics.
And that, Mr. Harwood, is why people areso nervous.

伪增长：美国经济增长略有上浮。这毫无疑问——但增长速度绝不是政府让你以为的那样快。最近商务部把第三季度增长率上调到3.5%——但是在本周早些时候，一些真实数据流出。第三季度我们的出口在呈现下降，建设支出出现萎缩。从这些数据可以看出，预计3.5%的增长率很可能修正下调至2.9%。但辛格也同时指出，为便于商务部用于计算GDP，通胀数据可能被人为地压低了。如果通胀真实数据统计出来，全年GDP增长率要低于所公布的30%数值。

伪财富：辛格指的是美联储抛出（印刷）4万亿美元的量化宽松政策，但结果没有让成千上万的普通人从中受益，于是，他们削减开支。这就是为什么经济疲软的原因。
伪就业（率）：劳工部统计后认为，今年增加了几十万个工作岗位，但这并不证明是一些新企业做出的贡献。几十年来一直在实行这种做法（统计方式），需要进一步调查。周五，劳工部预计，十月的就业增长人数有望达到23万人。通过高估其他服务类岗位，这个数字被夸大了。

伪金融稳定：人为压低利率不仅能维持银行和华尔街利润，同时还能让美国政府的财政状况看起来比较真实。如果华盛顿不注入资金补偿市场利率，美国的预算赤字和债务水平在已过度情况下将变得更为糟糕。

伪通胀数据：商业部不仅通过玩些修改通胀数据的花招来计算GDP。同时还压低了消费价格指数——通过学术认证方式，例如几何加权和享乐主义，欺骗社保接受者及其他人。
综上所述，哈伍德先生，这就是人们感到如此不安的根本原因。

@水晶溪谷
@白云居士
@模拟城市

美国的经济增长全都是一种幻觉

November 6, 2014 | 6:22am

http://m.ltaaa.com/Index-article-pid-14855.html

As voters were coming out of thepolls on Tuesday, pesky reporters were asking why they voted the way they did — and what was goingthrough their heads?
The most popular response — from 45 percent ofthe voters — was the economy.
Only 28 percent said their families weredoing better financially.
The economy is always the major issue inan election during times like these.
So no one should have been shocked thatvoters took their anger out on the party that controls the White House, eventhough Republicans are just as much to blamefor our economy’sfailures.
John Harwood, a political reporter forCNBC, asked a very good question before the votes were counted: Why?
As in, “Why did people appear so angry and unhappywhen the stock market was at record levels, the unemployment rate is downsharply, inflation is subdued and the number of jobs is increasing?”
Harwood’s explanation was that the benefits ofthis economic growth weren’t being evenly distributedand were being felt only by the blessed in the American economy — the upper 1 percent, if you will.
Harwood is only a little right. Yes, theeconomy is blessing the few and leaving the rest of us in limbo.
What Harwood and the rest of the folkswho rely solely on Washington’s mainstream thinkers and Wall Street boosters for theirinformation don’t realize is this: The economy isn’t really doing what the statistics say it is doing.

周二，正值选民们都出来投票，讨厌的记者们就问他们，为何而投？想要达到目的是什么？
多数人的回答——来自45%的选民——（表示）是经济。
只有28%的选民表示是为了让他们的家庭财务状况能变得更好点。
每到选举的这个时候，经济就毫无例外地变成焦点话题。
因此没人对选民迁怒于（民主）党所操控的白宫感到意外，尽管同共和党们指责我们经济失败（的原因）一样。
约翰哈伍德，CNBC政治专栏记者，在投票结果出来前，就抛出个相当有趣的问题：为什么？
其中的意思是，“当股票市场达到创纪录水平，失业率下降，通胀减缓，就业数量增长，人们为什么还表现出如此的愤怒和悲观？“
哈伍德的解释是，经济增长所带来的好处分布不均。美国经济涨1个百分点，你就会感到有一种被祝福的感觉。
哈伍德只说对了一点。是的，经济是祝福到了一少部分人，但剩下的大部分仍处在地狱边缘。
哈伍德和其他的人唯有依靠华盛顿主流思想家和华尔街死忠们，对于他们手中数据，没意识到：经济并不是如实进行所谓的统计，就说它起到效果了。

Our nation’s economic statistics are nipped andtucked, massaged, managed, fabricated and dolled up.
In short, our statistics are wrong andMain Street folks know it.
Here’s what a Wall Street hedge fundmogul, Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management Corp., told his clients theother day:
“Nobody can predict howlong governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fakefinancial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth,” Singer wrote. “When confidence is lost,that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets andsectors.”
I’m glad someone is reading my column.
But it’s not like Singer — whom I don’t know —was willing to say that out loud so that everyone could understand. He wrotethat in his newsletter to his clients.
So, shhhhh! It’s a secret. Don’t tell Americans that the economy isn’tdoing so well. (Oh, that’s right, they’ve already caught on.)
I won’t get into the year-long investigationI have been conducting into the Census Bureau’s faulty economic data. Now that the Republicans control both housesof Congress, I’m sure what is going on at Census willbe looked at very carefully.
But fabrication of data isn’t the only problem.Put enough academics and statisticians in a room and they can turn anystatistic into something it isn’t. Let’s use Singer’slist.

我们国家的经济统计数据是被动过手脚并掩盖过的，是被修改、设计、编造并精心打扮过的
一句话，我们的统计数据是错的，街上的人都知道。
此刻有位所谓的华尔街对冲基金大亨，保罗辛格，埃利奥特管理公司的主管，几天前曾对他的客户说：
“没人能猜到政府要多久才能摆脱掉假增长，假财富，假就业，假金融稳定，假通胀数据和假收入增长”辛格说道。“一旦信心丢失，损失可能会变得极其惨重而突然，同时一些市场和行业也会被波及。”
我非常高兴有人在读我的专栏。
但我和辛格不同——管他呢——想要说就大声说出来让大家都明白。他在短讯中给他的客户写道。
所以…嘘~，这是个秘密。可千万别让美国人知道，现在的经济其实没那么好。(啊，对了，现在都已流传开了)
我不会去进行长达一年的深入调查，但我会一直盯着人口财产普查局错误的经济数据。现在，共和党拿下了国会参众两院，我知道该怎样接近人口财产普查局，我会很小心的去一探究竟。
但数据造假并不是唯一的问题。把足够的学者和统计学家塞到一个屋子里，他们可以把任何统计数据还原成它原本面目，是吧？让我们看看辛格都得出了什么结果。

Fake growth: The USeconomy is growing moderately. That’s pretty much certain — but it’s notgrowing as fast as the government would have you believe. The CommerceDepartment recently pegged third-quarter growth at a 3.5 percent annual rate —but earlier this week, some real numbers came out. Our exports declined in thethird quarter  and construction spending was weak. So that 3.5 percent guesswill probably be revised down to a 2.9 percent annual rate on those numbersalone. But Singer is probably also referring to the artificially low inflationnumber that Commerce uses in its GDP calculations. If inflation were measuredcorrectly, GDP growth for all years might be 30 percent lower than reported.

Fake money: Singeris referring to the $4 trillion in dough the Federal Reserve printed underquantitative easing that has resulted in millions of regular folks not gettingmuch interest income and, therefore, they’re cutting back spending. That’s whythe economy is weak.

Fake jobs: TheLabor Department adds hundreds of thousandsof jobs a year to its count for positions it thinks, but can’t prove, are beingcreated by new companies. This practice, which has gone on for decades, needsto be investigated. On Friday, Labor is expected to report job growth of230,000 for October. That figure will be boosted by another heapingserving of job guesstimates.

Fake financial stability: Theartificially low interest rates are not only propping up banks andWall Street profits but also making the US government’s financial position lookbetter than reality. If Washington had to pay market rates for themoney it borrows, the US budget deficit and debt levels — alreadyexcessive — would be worse.

Fakeinflation numbers: Commerce doesn’t only play trickswith the inflation number used to calculate the GDP. It also tamps down theconsumer price index — and cheats Social Security recipients andothers — through academically approved methods likegeometric weighting and hedonics.
And that, Mr. Harwood, is why people areso nervous.

伪增长：美国经济增长略有上浮。这毫无疑问——但增长速度绝不是政府让你以为的那样快。最近商务部把第三季度增长率上调到3.5%——但是在本周早些时候，一些真实数据流出。第三季度我们的出口在呈现下降，建设支出出现萎缩。从这些数据可以看出，预计3.5%的增长率很可能修正下调至2.9%。但辛格也同时指出，为便于商务部用于计算GDP，通胀数据可能被人为地压低了。如果通胀真实数据统计出来，全年GDP增长率要低于所公布的30%数值。

伪财富：辛格指的是美联储抛出（印刷）4万亿美元的量化宽松政策，但结果没有让成千上万的普通人从中受益，于是，他们削减开支。这就是为什么经济疲软的原因。
伪就业（率）：劳工部统计后认为，今年增加了几十万个工作岗位，但这并不证明是一些新企业做出的贡献。几十年来一直在实行这种做法（统计方式），需要进一步调查。周五，劳工部预计，十月的就业增长人数有望达到23万人。通过高估其他服务类岗位，这个数字被夸大了。

伪金融稳定：人为压低利率不仅能维持银行和华尔街利润，同时还能让美国政府的财政状况看起来比较真实。如果华盛顿不注入资金补偿市场利率，美国的预算赤字和债务水平在已过度情况下将变得更为糟糕。

伪通胀数据：商业部不仅通过玩些修改通胀数据的花招来计算GDP。同时还压低了消费价格指数——通过学术认证方式，例如几何加权和享乐主义，欺骗社保接受者及其他人。
综上所述，哈伍德先生，这就是人们感到如此不安的根本原因。

@水晶溪谷
@白云居士
@模拟城市