超级军网基辛格撰文指出对中国实行遏制政策不明智
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/27 22:33:03
新华网华盛顿６月９日电 美国前国务卿基辛格９日在《国际先驱论坛报》发表文章指出，对中国实行遏制政策是不明智的。
基辛格在这篇题为《冲突不是选择》的文章中说，美国７任总统都强调与中国合作关系的重要性，承诺奉行一个中国政策。另一方面，许多美国官员、国会议员和媒体则对中国的汇率和加强军备等政策进行攻击。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起将在未来几十年使国际体系发生重大变化。世界事务的重心正在从大西洋转向太平洋。他指出，中国的崛起常被比作上个世纪初德国的崛起，其含义是（中美之间的）战略对抗是必然，美国对此必须有所准备。这种假设既是错误的，也是危险的。对中国实行冷战的军事遏制政策也是不明智的。
他说，中国无疑在发展自己的军事力量，但即便按最高估计，中国军事预算也不到美国军事预算的２０％。
关于台湾问题，基辛格说，世界上所有大国都承认中国的主张，即台湾是中国的一部分。来自共和与民主两党的美国７任总统也都承认这一点，没有谁比布什总统更强调这一点。
基辛格最后说，在新世纪开始之际，中美关系或许将决定我们的下一代是生活在比２０世纪更糟的混乱中，还是他们将目睹一个与渴望和平与进步相和谐的新的世界秩序的诞生。新华网华盛顿６月９日电 美国前国务卿基辛格９日在《国际先驱论坛报》发表文章指出，对中国实行遏制政策是不明智的。
基辛格在这篇题为《冲突不是选择》的文章中说，美国７任总统都强调与中国合作关系的重要性，承诺奉行一个中国政策。另一方面，许多美国官员、国会议员和媒体则对中国的汇率和加强军备等政策进行攻击。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起将在未来几十年使国际体系发生重大变化。世界事务的重心正在从大西洋转向太平洋。他指出，中国的崛起常被比作上个世纪初德国的崛起，其含义是（中美之间的）战略对抗是必然，美国对此必须有所准备。这种假设既是错误的，也是危险的。对中国实行冷战的军事遏制政策也是不明智的。
他说，中国无疑在发展自己的军事力量，但即便按最高估计，中国军事预算也不到美国军事预算的２０％。
关于台湾问题，基辛格说，世界上所有大国都承认中国的主张，即台湾是中国的一部分。来自共和与民主两党的美国７任总统也都承认这一点，没有谁比布什总统更强调这一点。
基辛格最后说，在新世纪开始之际，中美关系或许将决定我们的下一代是生活在比２０世纪更糟的混乱中，还是他们将目睹一个与渴望和平与进步相和谐的新的世界秩序的诞生。
基辛格在这篇题为《冲突不是选择》的文章中说，美国７任总统都强调与中国合作关系的重要性，承诺奉行一个中国政策。另一方面，许多美国官员、国会议员和媒体则对中国的汇率和加强军备等政策进行攻击。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起将在未来几十年使国际体系发生重大变化。世界事务的重心正在从大西洋转向太平洋。他指出，中国的崛起常被比作上个世纪初德国的崛起，其含义是（中美之间的）战略对抗是必然，美国对此必须有所准备。这种假设既是错误的，也是危险的。对中国实行冷战的军事遏制政策也是不明智的。
他说，中国无疑在发展自己的军事力量，但即便按最高估计，中国军事预算也不到美国军事预算的２０％。
关于台湾问题，基辛格说，世界上所有大国都承认中国的主张，即台湾是中国的一部分。来自共和与民主两党的美国７任总统也都承认这一点，没有谁比布什总统更强调这一点。
基辛格最后说，在新世纪开始之际，中美关系或许将决定我们的下一代是生活在比２０世纪更糟的混乱中，还是他们将目睹一个与渴望和平与进步相和谐的新的世界秩序的诞生。新华网华盛顿６月９日电 美国前国务卿基辛格９日在《国际先驱论坛报》发表文章指出，对中国实行遏制政策是不明智的。
基辛格在这篇题为《冲突不是选择》的文章中说，美国７任总统都强调与中国合作关系的重要性，承诺奉行一个中国政策。另一方面，许多美国官员、国会议员和媒体则对中国的汇率和加强军备等政策进行攻击。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起将在未来几十年使国际体系发生重大变化。世界事务的重心正在从大西洋转向太平洋。他指出，中国的崛起常被比作上个世纪初德国的崛起，其含义是（中美之间的）战略对抗是必然，美国对此必须有所准备。这种假设既是错误的，也是危险的。对中国实行冷战的军事遏制政策也是不明智的。
他说，中国无疑在发展自己的军事力量，但即便按最高估计，中国军事预算也不到美国军事预算的２０％。
关于台湾问题，基辛格说，世界上所有大国都承认中国的主张，即台湾是中国的一部分。来自共和与民主两党的美国７任总统也都承认这一点，没有谁比布什总统更强调这一点。
基辛格最后说，在新世纪开始之际，中美关系或许将决定我们的下一代是生活在比２０世纪更糟的混乱中，还是他们将目睹一个与渴望和平与进步相和谐的新的世界秩序的诞生。
凤凰卫视华盛顿6月9日消息 （记者 隗静萧燕）前美国国务卿基辛格周四在《国际先驱论坛报》上以“冲突不是选择”为题目发表评论文章说，中国和亚洲的崛起将大幅改变现有的世界秩序，但是中国在历史上从来不是一个军国主义的国家，认为中美必将走向对抗的观点是错误和危险的。
正当美国国防部即将出台的《中国军力评估报告》在中美两国引起各种猜测的时候，基辛格发表评论指出，有人将中国的崛起和德国在20世纪初期的崛起相比，认为中美必将走向对抗，这样的假设是错误和危险的。他说，从历史上看，军国主义从来不是中国的风格，因此美国在对华政策上也不应该使用冷战时期的遏制政策。
基辛格说，台湾问题经常被看作是引发中美军事冲突的一个可能性。他说，中美双方在过去的几十年来都在这个问题上保持克制，只有双方都放弃了坚持多年的克制才可能引发冲突，而这样的冲突远远不是不可避免的。
他说，世界上所有的主要国家和中美建交以来的七位美国总统都承认台湾是中国的一部分，而现任总统布什对这一立场的强调还要胜过他的前任。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起正在将国际政治的重心从大西洋移向太平洋。这一现象将在未来几十年内大幅改变现有的世界秩序。美国应该认识到中国不会消失，而和中国冷战对美国也没有好处。他说，为了世界和平，美国应该和中国合作。
基辛格还指出，中美双方都应该认识到他们对待对方的态度是很重要的。中国不应该将美国排斥在亚洲事务之外，而美国也必须明白，对于一个有着四千年连续发展史的中国，在交往中使用恃强凌弱的口吻是不合适的。
正当美国国防部即将出台的《中国军力评估报告》在中美两国引起各种猜测的时候，基辛格发表评论指出，有人将中国的崛起和德国在20世纪初期的崛起相比，认为中美必将走向对抗，这样的假设是错误和危险的。他说，从历史上看，军国主义从来不是中国的风格，因此美国在对华政策上也不应该使用冷战时期的遏制政策。
基辛格说，台湾问题经常被看作是引发中美军事冲突的一个可能性。他说，中美双方在过去的几十年来都在这个问题上保持克制，只有双方都放弃了坚持多年的克制才可能引发冲突，而这样的冲突远远不是不可避免的。
他说，世界上所有的主要国家和中美建交以来的七位美国总统都承认台湾是中国的一部分，而现任总统布什对这一立场的强调还要胜过他的前任。
基辛格说，中国和亚洲的崛起正在将国际政治的重心从大西洋移向太平洋。这一现象将在未来几十年内大幅改变现有的世界秩序。美国应该认识到中国不会消失，而和中国冷战对美国也没有好处。他说，为了世界和平，美国应该和中国合作。
基辛格还指出，中美双方都应该认识到他们对待对方的态度是很重要的。中国不应该将美国排斥在亚洲事务之外，而美国也必须明白，对于一个有着四千年连续发展史的中国，在交往中使用恃强凌弱的口吻是不合适的。
以下是基辛格在国际论坛报的文章原文，值得一读。
Conflict is not an option
Henry A. Kissinger International Herald Tribune
THURSDAY, JUNE 9, 2005
The relationship between the United States and China is beset by ambiguity. On the one hand, seven presidents have affirmed the importance of cooperative relations with China and a commitment to a one-China policy.
Nevertheless, ambivalence has suddenly re-emerged. Various U.S. officials, members of Congress and the news media are attacking China's policies, from the exchange rate to military buildup, much of it in a tone implying that China is on some sort of probation.
Before continuing on this subject, I must point out that the consulting company I chair advises clients with business interests around the world, including China. Also, in early May, I spent a week in China, much of it as a guest of the government.
The rise of China - and Asia - will, over the next decades, bring about a substantial reordering of the international system. The center of gravity of world affairs is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
China's emerging role is often compared to that of imperial Germany at the beginning of the last century, the implication being that a strategic confrontation is inevitable and the United States had best prepare for it. That assumption is as dangerous as it is wrong. Military imperialism is not the Chinese style. China seeks its objectives by careful study, patience and the accumulation of nuances.
It is also unwise to apply to China the policy of military containment of the cold war. The Soviet Union was the heir of an imperialist tradition. The Chinese state in its present dimensions has existed substantially for 2,000 years.
is often invoked as a potential trigger. This could happen if either side abandons the restraint that has characterized U.S.-Chinese relations on the subject for more than a generation. But it is far from inevitable. All major countries have recognized China's claim that Taiwan is part of China. So have seven American presidents of both parties, none more emphatically than President George W. Bush.
With respect to the overall balance, China's large and educated population, its vast markets, its growing role in the world economy and global financial system foreshadow an increasing capacity to pose an array of incentives and risks, the currency of international influence.
Short of seeking to destroy China as a functioning entity, however, this capacity is inherent in the global economic and financial processes that America has been pre-eminent in fostering.
The test of China's intentions will be whether its growing capacity will be used to seek to exclude America from Asia or whether it will be part of a cooperative effort.
Paradoxically, the best strategy for achieving antihegemonic objectives is to maintain close relations with all the major countries of Asia, including China. In that sense, the rise of Asia will be a test of America's competitiveness in the world now emerging, especially in the countries of Asia.
The vast majority of Asian nations view their relations with the United States in terms of their perception of their own interests. In a U.S. confrontation with China, they would seek to avoid choosing sides; at the same time, they would generally have greater incentives for participating in a multilateral system with America than adopting an exclusionary Asian nationalism.
They will not want to be seen as pieces of an American design. India, for example, finds no inconsistency between its improving relations with the United States and proclaiming a strategic partnership with China.
China, in its own interest, is seeking cooperation with the United States for many reasons, including the need to close the gap between its own developed and developing regions; the imperative of adjusting its political institutions to the accelerating economic and technological revolutions; the potentially catastrophic impact of a cold war with America on the continued raising of the standard of living, on which the legitimacy of the government depends.
But from this it does not follow that any damage to China caused by a cold war would benefit America. The United States would have few followers anywhere in Asia. Asian countries would continue trading with China. Whatever happens, China will not disappear. The American interest in cooperative relations with China is for the pursuit of world peace.
Attitudes are psychologically important. China needs to be careful about policies that seem to exclude America from Asia and about U.S. sensitivities regarding human rights, which will influence the flexibility and scope of America's stance toward China.
America needs to understand that a hectoring tone evokes in China memories of imperialist condescension and is not appropriate in dealing with a country that has managed 4,000 years of uninterrupted self-government.
As a new century begins, the relations between China and the United States may well determine whether our children will live in turmoil even worse than the 20th century or whether they will witness a new world order compatible with universal aspirations for peace and progress.
(Henry A. Kissinger heads the consulting firm Kissinger and Associates. Distributed by Tribune Media Services International.)
Conflict is not an option
Henry A. Kissinger International Herald Tribune
THURSDAY, JUNE 9, 2005
The relationship between the United States and China is beset by ambiguity. On the one hand, seven presidents have affirmed the importance of cooperative relations with China and a commitment to a one-China policy.
Nevertheless, ambivalence has suddenly re-emerged. Various U.S. officials, members of Congress and the news media are attacking China's policies, from the exchange rate to military buildup, much of it in a tone implying that China is on some sort of probation.
Before continuing on this subject, I must point out that the consulting company I chair advises clients with business interests around the world, including China. Also, in early May, I spent a week in China, much of it as a guest of the government.
The rise of China - and Asia - will, over the next decades, bring about a substantial reordering of the international system. The center of gravity of world affairs is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
China's emerging role is often compared to that of imperial Germany at the beginning of the last century, the implication being that a strategic confrontation is inevitable and the United States had best prepare for it. That assumption is as dangerous as it is wrong. Military imperialism is not the Chinese style. China seeks its objectives by careful study, patience and the accumulation of nuances.
It is also unwise to apply to China the policy of military containment of the cold war. The Soviet Union was the heir of an imperialist tradition. The Chinese state in its present dimensions has existed substantially for 2,000 years.
is often invoked as a potential trigger. This could happen if either side abandons the restraint that has characterized U.S.-Chinese relations on the subject for more than a generation. But it is far from inevitable. All major countries have recognized China's claim that Taiwan is part of China. So have seven American presidents of both parties, none more emphatically than President George W. Bush.
With respect to the overall balance, China's large and educated population, its vast markets, its growing role in the world economy and global financial system foreshadow an increasing capacity to pose an array of incentives and risks, the currency of international influence.
Short of seeking to destroy China as a functioning entity, however, this capacity is inherent in the global economic and financial processes that America has been pre-eminent in fostering.
The test of China's intentions will be whether its growing capacity will be used to seek to exclude America from Asia or whether it will be part of a cooperative effort.
Paradoxically, the best strategy for achieving antihegemonic objectives is to maintain close relations with all the major countries of Asia, including China. In that sense, the rise of Asia will be a test of America's competitiveness in the world now emerging, especially in the countries of Asia.
The vast majority of Asian nations view their relations with the United States in terms of their perception of their own interests. In a U.S. confrontation with China, they would seek to avoid choosing sides; at the same time, they would generally have greater incentives for participating in a multilateral system with America than adopting an exclusionary Asian nationalism.
They will not want to be seen as pieces of an American design. India, for example, finds no inconsistency between its improving relations with the United States and proclaiming a strategic partnership with China.
China, in its own interest, is seeking cooperation with the United States for many reasons, including the need to close the gap between its own developed and developing regions; the imperative of adjusting its political institutions to the accelerating economic and technological revolutions; the potentially catastrophic impact of a cold war with America on the continued raising of the standard of living, on which the legitimacy of the government depends.
But from this it does not follow that any damage to China caused by a cold war would benefit America. The United States would have few followers anywhere in Asia. Asian countries would continue trading with China. Whatever happens, China will not disappear. The American interest in cooperative relations with China is for the pursuit of world peace.
Attitudes are psychologically important. China needs to be careful about policies that seem to exclude America from Asia and about U.S. sensitivities regarding human rights, which will influence the flexibility and scope of America's stance toward China.
America needs to understand that a hectoring tone evokes in China memories of imperialist condescension and is not appropriate in dealing with a country that has managed 4,000 years of uninterrupted self-government.
As a new century begins, the relations between China and the United States may well determine whether our children will live in turmoil even worse than the 20th century or whether they will witness a new world order compatible with universal aspirations for peace and progress.
(Henry A. Kissinger heads the consulting firm Kissinger and Associates. Distributed by Tribune Media Services International.)