PoliticsForum：中国军演，意在日本？

http://www.politicsforum.org/for ... p?f=27&t=155334
翻译：龙腾

A senior U.S. military officer has accused China’s People Liberation Army oftraining for a “short sharp war” against Japan in the East China Sea aimed atseizing the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

美国一位高级军事官员指责中国人民解放军的军演是为了准备与日本在中国东海爆发一场“短期且剧烈的战争”，旨在夺取钓鱼岛/尖阁诸岛。

According to the U.S. Naval Institute, Captain James Fanell, Director,Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said that the massive Mission Action 2013 exercise between all three branches of the PLA last year was aimed at preparing for a war to defeat Japan’s Self Defense Forces in a conflict in the East China Sea.

据美国海军学院，美国太平洋舰队情报和信息作战的主任，上尉James Fanell说，去年解放军三军进行的大规模使命行动2013军演的目的是为了在与日本自卫队在东中国海的冲突中击败日本做准备。

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise —Mission Action 2013,” USNI News quoted Capt. Fanell as saying. “[We] concludedthat the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharpwar to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Seafollowing with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even asouthern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

“我们见证了（中国的）大规模的两栖和跨军区演习 - 使命行动2013年，”USNI新闻引用上尉Fanell的话。 “（我们）认为解放军已被赋予了新的任务。新任务要求他们能够进行一场短而有力的战争并且在东中国海摧毁日本海军。我们能预测到他们接下来（的任务）就是夺取钓鱼岛，甚至——如同中国的一些学者所说——（他们甚至会）夺取琉球南部的岛屿”。

During the speech delivered at the USNI-sponsored WEST 2014 conference, Capt.Fanell also took aim at some of China’sbroader maritime activities in the East and South China Seas.

在USNI主办的“西方2014会议”上发表的讲话的同时，上尉Fanell也注意到了中国在东中国海和南中国海进行的更广泛的海上活动。

“Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with the ChineseCoast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing China’s neighbors whilePLA Navy ships, their protectors, (make) port calls throughout the regionpromising friendship and cooperation,” Fanell said, according to USNI News.

据USNI新闻报道，Fanell上尉表示：“在南中国海和东中国海紧张局势已经恶化。中国海警充当反派，骚扰邻国，而作为海警保护者的解放军海军舰艇，他们在整个区域中的港口停靠，并许诺友谊与合作”。

He went on to add: “By the way, protection of maritime rights is a Chinese euphemism for coerce[d] seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbors.”

他还说道：“另外，保护海洋权益只是中国强制剥夺其邻国沿海权利的一种委婉的说法。”


Fanell has wide experience serving in the Pacific, giving him unique insightinto how the region’s navies operate and how this is changing over time. Healso has broad expertise on Chinaitself. According to his official biography, in 1991 JointIntelligence Center,Pacific (JICPAC) named him as one of the first China maritime watch officers.Between 2005 and 2006 he studied China’snaval operations at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and from 2006through 2008 he was the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)’s seniorintelligence officer on China.He currently serves as the moderator of Red Star Rising, an information servicethat monitors the rise of China.

Fanell在太平洋地区服役期间积累了大量经验，这些经验使得他对于这一地区的海军应该如何运作、运作方式如何演变拥有自己独特的见解。他还拥有关于中国的大量专业知识。据他的官方传记所述，1991年太平洋联合情报中心（JICPAC）任命他为中国第一个海上监视人员之一。 2005至2006年间，他在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究了中国的海军作战。从2006到2008年，他是海军情报办公室（ONI）负责中国地区的高级情报官员。他目前是一个名为“红星升起”的信息服务的主导者，这个信息服务用于监视中国崛起。

Although Fanell’s remarks were far blunter than is typical of senior U.S. militaryleaders, they were not uncharacteristic for him. Fanell has often offered morewithering criticism of China’smilitary than many of his counterparts in the U.S. armed services. At the sameUSNI conference last year, for example, Capt. Fanell stated:

虽然Fanell的言论远比典型的美国高级军事领导人更加直言不讳，领导人们并不把他当做异类。 Fanell经常说出比他同在美国军队服役的同行们更加令人难堪的话语来批评中国军事。（以Fanell上尉在）去年举行的USNI会议（中的表现）为例，上尉Fanell说：

“In my opinion, China is knowingly, operationally and incrementally seizingmaritime rights of its neighbors under the rubric of a maritime history that isnot only contested in the international community, but has largely been fabricatedby Chinese government propaganda bureaus in order to quote-unquote ‘educate’the populace about China’s ‘rich maritime history’ clearly as a tool to helpsustain the Party’s control.”】

“在我看来，中国是明知故犯。中国打着航海历史的名义不断夺取其邻国海洋权益，而这些航海历史不但在国际社会备受争议，且在很大程度上，（这些航海历史）是中宣部为了‘告诉’民众‘中国拥有丰富的海洋历史’而捏造出来的。（这种宣传）很明显是用来维持共产党的统治的。”
（来自：http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/c ... -war-against-japan/

Well, guess China isn't afraid of japan, despite what some fearful nationals on here would like to believe. However i don't believe a short sharp war against Japanese would work, not because japan could fend off china, but because history shows when nations plan for short quick wars they always end up lasting much longer than first plan.

好吧，这里除了某些感到恐惧的国民之外，（大家都认为）中国并不怕日本。但是，我并不认为一场“短期且有力的战争”会起到任何作用。这并不是因为日本可以抵御中国，而是因为历史证明，当一个国家计划爆发一场短期战争时，这场战争通常都会远比最初计划持续得更久。

评论：

Rei Murasame
So in other words, you are saying that Japan would fend off China. My view is that Chinais simply wasting time again, and this controversy is their way of distractingfrom the dire economic situation that they have walked themselves into.

所以，换句话说，你的意思是：日本可以抵御中国。我认为，中国又在浪费时间了。而这场争论就是他们（为了把国民视线）从他们正踏上的严峻经济形势上转移走的一种方法。

AhovkingRei Murasame
No, i believe maybe if war was declared the island hopping may takes longer than expected, or Japan might be able to hold the Chinese advancements, a whole number of things could happen that couldhappen that could cause the Chinese plan for a shortwar to last much longer than planed.
Also the massive Mission Action 2013 exercise was not a public exercise thing, though itwas not kept top secret it nether was it widely talked or promoted about fromthe Chinese, most of the information we are receivingare from the Americans and not the Chinese. This is why the 'West' isworried/interested in these exercises.

不，我相信，也许，如果这场战争被宣布为越岛作战的话，这场战争可能会花费比预期更长的时间，还是日本或许能够抵挡住中国的优势，许多变数都可能导致中国短暂战争的计划被无限延长。
同样，这些大量的2013使命行动军演并不是面向公众的演习，虽然这些军演并不是顶级机密，但它也不会允许被中国人广泛地讨论。我们大多数的信息来源都是从美国那里得来的而不是中国。这就是为什么“西方国家”非常担心/感兴趣这些军演。

mikema63
Or perhaps they are looking for something to throw resources at as a stimulus?
If they do invade Japan and quickly take over it would give the US an excellent excuse to take back Japan and perhaps beat china up a bit and increase its control over the two countries. As long as the US avoids a land war on the Chinese mainland I think they won't have much trouble.

或者也许中国在寻找一个消耗资源（这里大概指中国过剩的产能？）的途径来刺激（经济）？
如果中国的确入侵且迅速控制了日本，那么这将给美国一个极好的借口去夺回日本，并且也许会稍微打败中国一下，同时提升自己对于这两个国家的掌控。只要美国避免在中国大陆的陆战，我认为美国就不会有什么大麻烦。

Akuma
lol that fun stuff again. Chinese soldiers always come into contact with Japanese land only one way, as floating androtting corpses.
If Chinatries to "invade" JapanI believe that’s a good opportunity to test unusual weapons. China is a topcountry for biological warfare for example. I would find it very interesting ifEbola or Marburggenome is mixed with the cellular hull of a flu virus. Such tests were already conducted and it would be interesting tosee how the society would react. The great cities would break apart within daysand civilian society would come completely to a halt.
I support unusual methods 100% and in wareverything is allowed.

啊哈哈哈，又是这些有趣的东西。中国军人总是能够接触到日本本土，并且（他们接触到日本本土）只有一种方法，那就是漂浮（过来），以及（变成）腐烂的尸体。
如果中国“入侵”日本，我相信这是一个很好的检验（我们的）非常规武器的机会。比如说，中国就是（我们）进行生物战的最佳选择。我会觉得如果埃博拉病毒或马尔堡基因与流感病毒的细胞（蛋白质）壳混合起来的话，将会非常有趣。这样的测试已经进行过了，看看社会会有什么样的反应是很有趣的。大城市会在几天之内分崩离析，并且平民社会会完全陷入停滞（状态）。
我100%支持（这种）非常规方法，在战争中，（做）任何事情都是被允许的。

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Changes in theaverage physique of Chinese soldiers over the past 20 years havecreated a need for newer and larger armaments.
The PLA Daily cited research findings onTuesday by an unidentified institute of the PLA General Armament Departmentthat today's averageChinese soldieris 2 cm taller and has a waistline 5 centimeters larger than the average 20years ago.
The findings come from a survey beganin 2009 of more than 20,000 soldiers in the PLA's ground force. The survey measured and analyzed the body size,strength and other factors. Because the soldiers' average size has grown,larger military equipment is urgently needed, the researchers said.
A soldier of average size could feel crampedin some commonly used tanks, which were designed to accommodate the smallertroops of 30 years ago.
"Armaments and military personnel'sphysiques should be matched because that is the only way to ensure proper useof the equipment," said Ding Songtao, who led the research.
The research measured 28 features of the humanbody, compared with seven in previous studies. Anew database ofergonomic parameters was compiled on such factors as hand strength, which wouldhelp determine the optimum sensitivity of triggers.
Ding said the survey findings have been used in designingweapons and equipment for artillery, armored forces, engineers and the chemicaldefense corps.
The changes in physique have otherconsequences, said Wang Ya'nan, a military expert in Beijing. "The improvement of Chinese people's physical condition makes iteasier to recruit military personnel," Wang said. "Although soldiersdo not have to do much manual labor requiring physical strength, unlike theirpredecessors, many jobs in the military and especially the army still requirestrong soldiers."
For instance, he said, thoughdesigners have been striving to reduce the weight of foot soldiers' individualequipment, the overall load carried by each soldier is not significantlylighter than before.
"That is because the army wants to addmore functions to soldiers' backpacks to diversify their roles in combat,"Wang said. "Soldiers must be strong to carry this equipment. So the factthat Chinese people are becoming taller andstronger provides more options to the military."
Meanwhile, advances in technology, engineeringand manufacturing have enabled the air force to relax its criteria in choosingpilots, he said.
"In the past, the air force would notselect tall pilots because military aircraft cockpits were usually small. Butsince the advanced aerodynamic design and cutting-edge electronics have beenadopted in new-generation planes, there is considerably more space for pilots,allowing tall people to fit in."

在过去的20年中，中国士兵的平均体格已经有所变化，中国军队需要更新的以及更大的武器（来适应士兵体格的改变）。周二，解放军日报援引解放军总装备部某研究机构的机构研究结果显示，如今的普通中国士兵比20年前的平均身高高2cm，且腰围比20年前的平均值增加5厘米。这项研究结果源自于一项从2009年开始的调查，该研究调查了超过20,000名解放军的陆军士兵。这项调查测量和分析了身体尺寸，强壮程度等因素。研究人员表示，因为士兵的平均体格不断增长，军队迫切需要更大的军事装备。普通体格的士兵在一些常用坦克中会感到拥挤，因为这些坦克是30年为（和现在比）身材较小的士兵们设计的。领导这项研究的丁宋涛（音译）表示：“军队装备应该和军事人员的体格大小相匹配，因为这样才能确保士兵们正确使用这些装备”。
与以往（只测量）7项指标不同，这次的研究测量了人体的28项指标。专家们编译了一个新型的人体工程学参数数据库，使得我们可以考虑到例如手的力量等因素，由此，帮助我们确定触发器的最佳灵敏度。丁宋涛（音译）表示，这些调查结果已经被用于火炮，装甲部队，工程师和防化兵的武器装备设计中。“士兵身体素质的变化还有其他影响”，北京的军事专家王雅南（音译）如此说道。 “中国人体质的改善使国家更容易招募士兵”。 王雅南同时提到，“虽然和老一辈士兵不同，现如今的士兵们不用做太多消耗体能的体力劳动，但军队里的许多工作，特别是陆军，仍然需要强壮的士兵”。“例如”，他说，“虽然设计师一直在努力减少步兵单兵装备的重量，但每个士兵所需携带的总重量，并没有比之前轻多少”。
“那是因为，为了让战士们在战斗中有不同的分工，陆军需要给士兵的背包中添加更多的装备”，王雅南说。 “士兵们必须能够抗起这些设备。所以，中国人正在变得更高、变壮这件事，事实上为中国军队提供了更多的选择”。“同时”，他说，“技术、工程和制造业的进步也使得空军在选择飞行员时放宽了标准”。“在过去，空军不会选择身材高大的飞行员，因为军用飞机驾驶舱通常很小，但自从我们在新一代飞机上采用了先进的空气动力学设计和尖端的电子产品，驾驶舱内就给飞行员们留出了很多空间，身材高大的飞行员也可以钻进去了。“

ThirdTerm
The Philippines lost its battle over the ScarboroughShoal and Chinatook effective control of the shoal after erecting a barrier to its entranceand started turning away Filipino vessels approaching the shoal. Theinternational community has done nothing so far to contain China's territorial expansionism in the SouthChina Sea but economic sanctions could have been imposed on China undernormal circumstances. China's illegal seizure of the Scarborough Shoal set abad precedent for Asian nations, which is similar to the Sudeten Crisis in1938, but the Senkakus would not be seized easily by the PLA as any Chineseattempt to take over the disputed islands will automatically trigger a US-ledmilitary response in accordance of the US-Japan mutual defence treaty. Hitlerunderestimated Britain's determination to defend Poland in 1939 when NaziGermany invaded the country in defiance of the Munich Agreement and the PLA maybe about to repeat Hitler's mistake.
“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, thereis growing concern that China’spattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assertcontrol of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite theobjections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation orapparent basis under international law.” Fannell said. Fannell noted the nationhas allocated $1.6 million on improvements to disputed South China Sea outposts. Developing ports, air fields, waterpurification and surveillance systems. “Meanwhile, China describes efforts by othernations to improve the navigability of their outposts as egregious provocationsand responded with threats.” Fannell’s assessment of the Chinese lies seeminglyin contrast to American efforts to forge close military-to-military ties withthe country. On the same panel the Navy’s head of operations, plans andstrategy, Rear Adm. James Foggo described a successful meeting between U.S.Navy officials and the head of the PLAN, Adm. Wu Shengli. The U.S. delegationtoured PLAN ships and submarines. However, shortly after they left, the Chinesedeclared the controversial Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over a largeswath over the East China Sea in November.

菲律宾在与中国的抗争中失去了黄岩岛。并且，在中国有效控制了黄岩岛并在岛礁的入口处设置了障碍之后，中国回过头开始驱离接近黄岩岛的菲律宾的船只了。至今为止，国际社会在遏制中国在南中国海的领土扩张方面，除了通常情况下的经济制裁之外什么都没有做。中国的非法获得黄岩岛给亚洲诸国的开了一个坏的先例，这种行为类似于1938年的苏台德危机，但钓鱼岛不会轻易地被解放军获得，因为任何一个试图接收这个争议岛屿的中国人，都会自动触发美日安保条例，从而导致以美国为首的军事应对。当纳粹德国蔑视慕尼黑协定而入侵波兰的时候，希特勒低估了英国的1939年捍卫波兰的决心。而PLA也许即将重复希特勒犯下的错误。
“正如一名美国政府高级官员近日表示的那样，人们越来越担心这种行为在中国在南中国海的这种中国模式。他们认为这种模式表明了中国在努力扩张，通过控制9段线以内的这片海域，且无视邻国的反对以及相关国际法的解释或明确依据的缺失。” Fannell上尉如此说道。 Fannell同时指出，国家已拨款160万用于改善位于有争议的中国南海的警戒部队。这些钱用于发展港口，飞机场，净水系统以及监控系统。“同时，中国将其他国家为了保证通航而改善其基地的行为描述为令人震惊的挑衅行为，并且（中方负责人）回答的语气带有威胁性。”与Fannell对中国的评价正相反，美国在努力与中国建立密切的军事关系。在同一小组中，美国海军作战、策划以及战略指挥，海军少将James Foggo描述了美国海军官员与中国海军上将吴胜利（音译）之间一次成功的会议。美国代表团参观了中国海军舰艇和潜艇。然而，美国代表团离开后不久，中国就于去年11月宣布了涵盖东中国海大片地区的富有争议的防空识别区（ADIZ）。

nucklepunche
Chinacould never defeat Japanbecause NATO would immediately come to Japan's aid. In spite of China's powerNATO is technologically superior and would defeat them. A lot of Chinesemilitarism, howeve,r, is sabre rattling. They don't really intend to invade Japan, they are just trying to show they havemuscle and be a thorn in Japan'sside.

中国永远也打不败日本，因为北约会迅速驰援日本。暂且不说中国的力量，北约在技术上超过中国并将会击败中国。中国的军国主义正在增长，但这都只是剑拔弩张的惊悚场面而已。他们并不是真心想进攻日本，他们只是在试图展现肌肉，并且（试图）成为日本的眼中钉而已。

Istanbuller
Quote:
The Philippines lost its battle over the ScarboroughShoal and Chinatook ……
Hopefully Chinawill invade the Philippinestoo and put an end to that absurd American construction state.

引用之前“菲律宾失去了黄岩岛”的评论
我希望中国也能进攻菲律宾，并且结束菲律宾现在这种荒唐的美式国家的状态。

mikema63
Quote:
absurd Americanconstruction state
What's your beef with the Philippines?

回复上文Istanbller
你对菲律宾有什么牢骚可发的？

Ahovking
ThirdTerm wrote:
The Philippineslost its battle over the Scarborough Shoal and China
How could economic sanctions be imposed on China? China the most important and largest tradingpartner to more counties than the USand alot of counties including Australiais heavily depended on Chinaand her growth as well as her wiliness to spend large sums of money in ourcountry. Economic sanctions would hurt most counties including the United States as much as it would hurt China, remember the UShas a massive trading deficit with Chinaand if trade was to stop, the US would hurt as much as China would if China faced globe economic sanctions. reality is.. you cant sanctions the world ssecond largest economy in the world.

回复上文 ThirdTerm 关于菲律宾失去黄岩岛的发言
你怎么可能把经济制裁强加给中国？相对于美国，中国是更多国家的最重要的且是最大贸易伙伴。许多国家，包括澳大利亚都严重依赖中国、中国的（经济）增长、以及中国是否愿意在我们国家砸大钱（投资）。经济制裁（中国）会使得包括美国在内的绝大多数国家受到和中国一样的伤害。记住，美国和中国的贸易有着巨大的贸易赤字，如果经济制裁中国导致这些贸易停止，那么美国和中国受到的伤害是一样深的。事实就是……你无法制裁世界第二大经济体。

nucklepunche wrote:
China could never defeat Japan because NATO would immediately come to Japan's aid.
Please Remember that Reports published by Taiwan and another report published by the United States has concluded that China's arms buildup over the last two decades would give it the power to invade Taiwan (and surrounding islands) by 2020 even if allies(the United States and Japan) came to the island's aid. (similar conclusions have been made by Rssia, Australia, Philippines,UK and Germany)
Around 2020, Chinawill be able to take the islands by force and the US and its allies will be helplessto do anything about it.

回复nucklepunche：“中国永远也打不败日本，因为北约会迅速驰援日本。”
请记住，台湾和美国都各发表过一份报告，且两份报告均表示，中国在过去20年间的军备扩张使得中国在2020年有能力在有美日盟友的支援台湾的情况下，入侵台湾（以及台湾周边岛屿）。（俄罗斯，澳大利亚，菲律宾，英国以及德国都做出了同样的结论）。2020年左右，中国将可以武力接管台湾，无奈美国和她的盟友却什么都做不了。

Beren
I think China will take Taiwan peacefully, but they willtake the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands by force.
Time seems to be on their side anyway.

我认为中国会和平统一台湾，但是他们会在钓鱼岛动用武力。
无路如何，时间站在他们（中国）那边。

nucklepunche
Quote:
Please Remembe rthat Reports published by Taiwan and another report published by the United States has concluded that China's arms……
The issue is how much force NATO and Japan are willing to use. I'm not sure they would be willing to spend the levels of resources it would take to defeat China. I think Japan might be more willing to fight for Taiwan for ideological and historical reasons,but the USAmight end up caving to American businessmen who would fear losing access toChinese markets and cheap labor due to retaliation. I think this is what the Chinese are counting on.
Their ultimate problem is they can't makethemselves look too bad and result in economic sanctions. Otherwise they wouldhave taken over Taiwanalready. They just count on slowly absorbing Taiwanby making the USAtoo economically beholden to them to do anything about it.
I still believe if NATO totally committeditself to the cause, without bowing to economic pressure from businessintertests, could defeat China.However I hope it never comes to a situation like that.

引用上文nucklepunche 自己说的
问题是，北约和日本愿意出多大力？我不认为他们愿意花费用于击败中国所要消耗的巨额的资源。我倒是认为日本为了意识形态和历史原因会更愿意为台湾而战，而美国最终可能会屈服于美国商人。因为美国商人们害怕会因中国的报复而失去中国市场以及廉价劳动力。我认为，中国人正是寄希望于（美国的）这一点。
他们（中国人面临的）最终的问题是他们不能让自己看起来太邪恶，从而导致（被他国）经济制裁。如果不是考虑到这一点，他们早就收复台湾了。中国人寄希望于通过让美国在经济上过度依赖自己，使美国人（为了经济利益）愿意听命于中国，从而慢慢吸收台湾。我仍然相信，如果北约全心致力于自己的事业，而不是因为经济压力而向商业利益低头，那么我们就可以打败中国。虽然我并不希望这一天到来。

Akuma
That’s a wrongassumption, i believe this situation is a historic imperative and will happen. Chinaneeds to be put in place。

这是一个错误的假设，我相信这种情况具有历史必要性，并这种情况将会发生。我们需要把中国放回属于她的位置。

Dagoth Ur
By who Akuma? Japan? You onlyresist China now because America needsAsian vassal of some importance. This isn't 1940 anymore bro.

谁来（把中国）放（回属于她的位置）？日本？你抵制中国只是因为美国需要一个比较有分量的亚洲附庸（国）。现在已经不是1940年了，兄弟。

Akuma
Dagoth Ur wrote:
By who Akuma? Japan? ……
we beat china since 660 before christ. Wecrushed them when they were stronger than today compared to us. Why do youthink Japannever felt under their influence and crushed the sinocentric world view? Chinais a glass giant.

回复上文Dagoth Ur “谁来放”
在公元前660年我们就击退了中国。我们击败他们的时候，他们比今天的中国对我们来说更强大。你为什么认为日本从未感到受其影响并且粉碎了以中国为中心的世界观呢？中国就是一个玻璃（做的）巨人。

Dagoth Ur
Because you'reon islands and islands are notoriously hard to invade (especially mountainousones). And China today isquite different from any Chinayou've ever dealt with before. Certainly the most organized (on a leadershiplevel) China.

那是因为日本是岛国，而岛国是出了名的易守难攻（尤其是山地岛国）。而现在的中国，和日本之前认识的中国是完全不一样的。当然，我指的是领导层面上有组织的中国。

Akuma
Dagoth Ur wrote:
Because you're onislands ……
that is wrong, china is deeply divided insideand corrupted to the core. It was never before more easy to use divide etimpera tactics

回复上文Dagoth Ur
错，中国内部已经完全分裂并且核心已经损坏。（对于现在这种分裂状态的中国）这是前所未有的更易于使用“分而治之”策略的。

Far-Right Sage
Well, I wouldsay it was easier in the past, such as in thecase with the First Sino-Japanese War which resulted in the Japanese annexationof Taiwanin the first place. Qing Dynasty China was an easier nut to crackbecause it was led by a Manchu elite which many Han Chinese resented andultimately didn't want to sacrifice everything to defend. That and the factthat Empire of Japan enjoyed an extremely advantageous edge in innovation.
That said, I believe the modern People'sRepublic of China still hasmany understated internal weaknesses which will be easy to exploit, no lessfrom a Japanwhich has an extremely creative capacity and leads the world in innovation.
As for the comments about the Filipinodispute with China,I wouldn't even put the two in the same league. Japanis most definitely not the Philippines.Though the Filipino weakness in that area underscores why a deadly serioussecurity arrangement must be drawn up between Japan,South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia,the Philippines, and Thailand.

好吧，我觉得过去（打败中国）更容易一点。比如在第一次中日战争中，日本原先吞并了台湾。清朝时期的中国是一个更容易啃的骨头，因为清朝是由一名满族精英（统治的），而许多中国汉族怨恨（满族统治），（并且）不想牺牲一切来捍卫（清朝统治下的中国）。这些事实（说明了），大日本帝国当时正在享受着创新带来的极为有利的优势（地位）。
不过，我相信，现代的中华人民共和国内部仍然有很多不为人注意的弱点，这会很容易被利用，不过日本这个拥有极高创新能力且引导世界创新的国家（内部应该）也有不少（不为人注意的弱点）。
关于那些菲律宾和中国争端的评论，我从来不会把（日本和菲律宾）这两个（国家）放在一个等级中（对比）。日本绝绝对对和菲律宾不一样。虽然菲律宾在那一地区的弱点凸显了必须在日本，韩国，越南，印尼，菲律宾和泰国之间制定一个安全协定是多么紧急的事情。

benpenguin
Guys, I think Ineed to point out the fact that military exercises are always based on"possible scenarios" - Japanis currently no.1 enemy of China,and Diaoyu island is the frontier of disputes - so why the hell wouldn't thePLA use that as their imaginary battlefield?
Remember that PLA has been conducting militaryexercises EVEN against imaginary Soviets wayyyyy before the Sino-Russian split,when USSRis still "Big brother". It is the duty of the military to guess +prepare where potential conflicts could be, and politicians to decide whatactually to do.
Yes, we are hostile to far right Japan,but this particular exercise is no indication of wanting to go to war.
Akuma, you will be surprised how united peoplewill get against a commonly hated enemy. This is just basic psychology.

伙计们，我想我需要指出，军事演习始终基于“可能出现的情况”这一事实。日本目前是中国的头号敌人，而钓鱼岛是争议的前沿。那么，（中国）为什么不在他们的假想战场使用PLA呢？请记住，即使在中苏同盟瓦解之前，当苏联还是（中国的）“老大哥”的时候，PLA就始终致力于对抗苏联的假想军事演习。这是军队的职责是去猜测和准备哪里存在潜在冲突的可能性，政治家的职责是来决定实际上做什么。
是的，我们敌对的是极端右倾的日本，但这个特殊的演习并不代表我们想要发动战争。
Akuma，你会惊奇地发现团结一致的人们是如何对待人民公敌的。这不过是基本的心理学（而已）。

Rei Murasame
Actually, thatmight be a pretty good point. This might be a whole lot of thinking about ascenario that simply won't unfold.

事实上，（我认为）这是一个非常好的观点。所有的这些想象大概都是关于一个永远不可能发生的场景的。

Ahovking
nucklepunche wrote:
The issue is how much force NATO and Japan are willing to use.
You can’t sanctions the worlds second largesteconomy in the world.
China's the most important and largest tradingpartner to more counties than the US and a lot of counties including Australia isheavily depended on China and her growth as well as her wiliness to spend largesums of money in their country. Economic sanctions would hurt most counties includingthe United States as much asit would hurt China,remember the US has amassive trading deficit with China andif trade was to stop, the USwould hurt as much as Chinawould if Chinafaced globe economic sanctions. reality is.. you cant sanctions the worldssecond largest economy in the world.

回复nucklepunche 关于北约会驰援日本的发言
你无法制裁世界第二大经济体。
（注：原文中的counties[县]，应该换成countries[国家]更说得通。于是自主更换。）（斜体这段是引用上文的发言）
对于更多的国家来说，中国才是她们最重要的，且最大的贸易伙伴而非美国。许多国家，包括澳大利亚，在很大程度上依赖于中国、中国的成长、以及中国是否愿意在这些国家花大笔的钱。经济制裁会伤害大多数国家，包括美国，而中国也会受到同等的伤害。记住了美国和中国之间有着巨大的贸易赤字。如果停止贸易，如果中国面临全球经济制裁，美国会受到和中国所受同等级的伤害。（所以）现实就是......你不能制裁的世界第二大经济体。

Akuma
benpenguin wrote:
Guys, I think Ineed to point out the fact that military exercises are always based on"possible scenarios"……
I doubt Uighurs will be very united againstus. I also doubt that the corrupted elite will be very united when we freezetheir money on the cayman islands.
Oh and Ahovking, the German empire was thelargest economy in WW I, that did not mean it was not sanctioned and isolatedin a marine blockade. I'm against sanctions though. Sanctions don't create thepressure like ABC weapons. I believe such a war would be the best possibilityto create new types of warfare and creative solutions. Why damage suchpossibilities with sanctions?

回复benpenguin
我怀疑维吾尔族人是否会团结一致对抗我们。我同样也怀疑，当我们冻结了那些腐败精英们在开曼群岛的资金时，他们是否会团结一致。
哦对了，Ahovking，德意志帝国是第一次世界大战时世界第一大经济体，单着并不意味着他不会被制裁，并被孤立于海洋封锁。虽然我反对制裁。制裁并不会带来如同ABC武器那样的压力。我相信这种战争（生化战）极有可能创造出新型的战争形式并出现创造性的解决方案。为什么要用制裁破坏这种可能性？

benpenguin
Well, we gotinvaded constantly by barbarians in the last 5 thousand years, and we have theproblem of corrupted elites and incited minority tribes on our backs all thetime - every single one of our enemies use that tactic you mentioned. We arepretty experienced with that kinda stuff.
Oh, the Japs actually failed to do the minority bit last time, because behaving like the belligerent brutes you are,you lot failed to win over anybody. They joined the Chinese resistance. This time around, sinceyour Western masters stirred enough trouble inUighur and Tibet,you might have a chance! Who knows.
Anyway, lets stop the pissing contest shall we? Your opinion will always be "JAPAN IS SUPERIOR WE CRUSHCHINAAA!", and I think we are already very familiar with each other'sviewpoint by now.

好吧，在过去5000年的历史中，我们不断地被蛮夷入侵，我们有一群腐败的精英，我们身后还始终有被煽动少数民族部落的问题。而我们的每一个敌人都会使用你提到的那种战术。我们对这种情况还是是相当有经验的。
哦，小日本上次居然没有成为少数入主中原的民族，因为你们的行为就像好战畜生，你们没有赢得过任何人。他们（少数民族）加入了中国的抵抗。这一次，你的西方师傅在XJ和XZ搅和了不少麻烦事，所以你们可能会有机会！不过谁知道呢。
不管怎样，让我们停止这场撒尿比赛好吗？您的意见将永远是“我们日本是卓越的！我们粉碎了中国！”，我想目前为止，大家都已经很熟悉对方的观点了。

Akuma
benpenguin wrote:
Well, we gotinvaded constantly by barbarians in the last 5 thousand years,……
That’s quite wrong and you know this. I believe separatist movements and sanctions are just one side of the medal.Nuclear weapons also only serve as warning and are not functional in such a scenario. I believe biological warfare is a perfect tool in a clash between China and Japan. Since China acts asthe aggressor I would be interested in several aspects. It would solve many aspects. The Chinese society would collapse into chaos within days and so would China‘s ability to wage war.
We would force sanctions on Chinain this step, if other nations want it or not. China must be isolated in thatcase, no matter what, simply to stop the outbreak.
The psychological effect of an attack likethis is enormous and as powerful as the virus itself. Dependingon the virus it would even lead to the possibility that China has to nuke its own cities.
Japan is a leading nation in GM technology andvirology. Chinais not. Japanese institutions already created supervirus in thepast, putting Ebola into the virus hull of highlyinfectious flu virus for example. The possibilities today areendless. If you look at the outbreaks of several birdfluvirus in the past, suchoperations could already start before any war and bring chinas ability to wagewar at the beginning stage without bringing japan in danger. It could even geta positive end for japan. Since evry bioweapon consists of two parts, the virus and the cure,japan could bring the cure after letting the virus run rampage for 2or 3 weeks.
This could improve chinese - japan relationsin a great way.

回复上面benpenguin
你知道这是完全错误的。我相信，分离主义运动和制裁只是奖牌的一面。核武器在这种情况下也只能作为警告而起不到任何作用。我相信生物战是中日冲突中（日本应该对中国使用）的最佳工具。由于中国是侵略者，我会对几个方面感兴趣。这将解决很多方面的问题。中国社会会在几天之内崩溃，因此中国会失去发动战争的能力。
在这种情况下，不管其他国家愿意与否，我们都会强制对中国实施制裁。这种情况下中国必须被隔离，不管怎样，就是为了阻止（中国）爆发。这样的攻击（指生化武器）所带来的心理影响是巨大的，和（生化武器所使用的）病毒本身是一样强大的。取决于（日本所选的）病毒的种类的不同，中国甚至有可能不得不核平自己的城市。
日本在转基因技术和病毒学领域的研究处于国际领先地位，而中国不是。日本的（研究）机构已经合成了超级病毒，把埃博拉病毒放入具有高度传染性的病毒的（蛋白质）外壳内，例如流感病毒的外壳。现今世界，一切皆有可能。如果你看看之前爆发的几起禽流感疫情（你就会知道），我们可以在任何战争爆发前做这些动作（投放病毒，让中国爆发疫情），从而在最开始阶段夺去中国发动战争的能力，且不伤及日本分毫。这（种行动）甚至可以给日本带来一个良好的结局。由于每种生化武器都有两个部分组成，也即病毒部分和解药部分。日本可以让这种病毒（在中国）肆虐2到3周以后再带去（提供）解药。
这将会极大地促进中日关系（的好转）。

Ahovking
Akuma wrote:
Oh and Ahovking,the german empire was the largest economy in WW I, ……
Akuma the United States Was the worldslargest economy in World War 1 (USA achieved the title in 1900 from memory). Also Germany was very muchisolated,
It became a great power, boasting a rapidlygrowing rail network, the world's strongest army, and a fast-growing industrialbase.[11] Its navy went from being negligible to second only behind the Royal Navy in less than adecade. After the removal of the powerful Chancellor Otto von Bismarck in 1890following the death of Emperor Wilhelm I, the young Emperor Wilhelm II engagedin increasingly reckless foreign policies that left the Empire isolated.
Just like the Soviet Union, German empire waseconomically isolated from its neighbors and its main competitor the British empire. Being economically isolated allowed Germany to be "sanctioned" and laterblockaded during the war with little effect domestically to Germany's neighbors and Britain.
This can’t happen to China. First China is not aneconomically isolated, nations like Australia heavily depends on China tradeand without we would immediately go into a recession as well as 72 counties(most developed) who also heavily depends on China trade, Blockading orsanctioning the world second largest economy which most developed counties relyon to buy their debt (to fund theirgrowth) and for cheep goods to sell as well as developing countries to buytheir reasoues could result in a global great depression, harming the West asmuch as it would harm China.
The same thing would happen if we sanctioned Japan or the United States. Too many countriesIncluding the United States depend to heavily on China.

回复上篇Akuma发言
Akuma，第一次世界大战时，美国是当时世界上最大的经济体（没记错的话，美国在1900年成为了第一名）。此外，德国（当时）是非常孤立的，
她（美国）成为了一个大国，她拥有快速成长的铁路网，世界上最强的军队，以及快速增长的产业基地。[11]美国世界排名第二的海军被忽略了，她的海军仅次于英国皇家海军而且差距不到10年。1890年，（德国）在撤换掉强大的总理奥托·冯·俾斯麦之后，皇帝威廉一世不久也去世了。年轻皇帝威廉二世鲁莽的外交政策使得帝国日益被孤立起来。（译注：这里为某文章的引用）
就如同苏联，德意志帝国在经济上被她的邻居和她最主要的对手，大英帝国所孤立。被经济上孤立事实上表明了德国可以被“孤立”，同时也表明了即使（德国）在战时被封锁，对于德国周边国家和英国来说也几乎没有什么影响。
（但）这不可能发生在中国。首先，中国不是一个被孤立的经济体，很多国家，比如澳大利亚，就严重依赖同中国的贸易。没有（与中国的贸易），我们会立即进入经济衰退，另外72个严重依赖同中国贸易的国家（大部分是发达国家）也会如此。世界上最发达的国家依靠买中国的国债（用于资助中国的发展）以及从她那里买便宜货来过活。同样的，发展中国家需要购买中国的资源。制裁这样一个世界第二大经济体可能会导致全球经济大萧条，西方国家会遭受到和中国同等程度的损害。
如果我们制裁美国或者日本，相同的事情也会发生。太多的国家，包括美国，已经过分依赖中国了。



http://www.politicsforum.org/for ... p?f=27&t=155334
翻译：龙腾

A senior U.S. military officer has accused China’s People Liberation Army oftraining for a “short sharp war” against Japan in the East China Sea aimed atseizing the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

美国一位高级军事官员指责中国人民解放军的军演是为了准备与日本在中国东海爆发一场“短期且剧烈的战争”，旨在夺取钓鱼岛/尖阁诸岛。

According to the U.S. Naval Institute, Captain James Fanell, Director,Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said that the massive Mission Action 2013 exercise between all three branches of the PLA last year was aimed at preparing for a war to defeat Japan’s Self Defense Forces in a conflict in the East China Sea.

据美国海军学院，美国太平洋舰队情报和信息作战的主任，上尉James Fanell说，去年解放军三军进行的大规模使命行动2013军演的目的是为了在与日本自卫队在东中国海的冲突中击败日本做准备。

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise —Mission Action 2013,” USNI News quoted Capt. Fanell as saying. “[We] concludedthat the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharpwar to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Seafollowing with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even asouthern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

“我们见证了（中国的）大规模的两栖和跨军区演习 - 使命行动2013年，”USNI新闻引用上尉Fanell的话。 “（我们）认为解放军已被赋予了新的任务。新任务要求他们能够进行一场短而有力的战争并且在东中国海摧毁日本海军。我们能预测到他们接下来（的任务）就是夺取钓鱼岛，甚至——如同中国的一些学者所说——（他们甚至会）夺取琉球南部的岛屿”。

During the speech delivered at the USNI-sponsored WEST 2014 conference, Capt.Fanell also took aim at some of China’sbroader maritime activities in the East and South China Seas.

在USNI主办的“西方2014会议”上发表的讲话的同时，上尉Fanell也注意到了中国在东中国海和南中国海进行的更广泛的海上活动。

“Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with the ChineseCoast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing China’s neighbors whilePLA Navy ships, their protectors, (make) port calls throughout the regionpromising friendship and cooperation,” Fanell said, according to USNI News.

据USNI新闻报道，Fanell上尉表示：“在南中国海和东中国海紧张局势已经恶化。中国海警充当反派，骚扰邻国，而作为海警保护者的解放军海军舰艇，他们在整个区域中的港口停靠，并许诺友谊与合作”。

He went on to add: “By the way, protection of maritime rights is a Chinese euphemism for coerce[d] seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbors.”

他还说道：“另外，保护海洋权益只是中国强制剥夺其邻国沿海权利的一种委婉的说法。”


Fanell has wide experience serving in the Pacific, giving him unique insightinto how the region’s navies operate and how this is changing over time. Healso has broad expertise on Chinaitself. According to his official biography, in 1991 JointIntelligence Center,Pacific (JICPAC) named him as one of the first China maritime watch officers.Between 2005 and 2006 he studied China’snaval operations at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and from 2006through 2008 he was the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)’s seniorintelligence officer on China.He currently serves as the moderator of Red Star Rising, an information servicethat monitors the rise of China.

Fanell在太平洋地区服役期间积累了大量经验，这些经验使得他对于这一地区的海军应该如何运作、运作方式如何演变拥有自己独特的见解。他还拥有关于中国的大量专业知识。据他的官方传记所述，1991年太平洋联合情报中心（JICPAC）任命他为中国第一个海上监视人员之一。 2005至2006年间，他在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究了中国的海军作战。从2006到2008年，他是海军情报办公室（ONI）负责中国地区的高级情报官员。他目前是一个名为“红星升起”的信息服务的主导者，这个信息服务用于监视中国崛起。

Although Fanell’s remarks were far blunter than is typical of senior U.S. militaryleaders, they were not uncharacteristic for him. Fanell has often offered morewithering criticism of China’smilitary than many of his counterparts in the U.S. armed services. At the sameUSNI conference last year, for example, Capt. Fanell stated:

虽然Fanell的言论远比典型的美国高级军事领导人更加直言不讳，领导人们并不把他当做异类。 Fanell经常说出比他同在美国军队服役的同行们更加令人难堪的话语来批评中国军事。（以Fanell上尉在）去年举行的USNI会议（中的表现）为例，上尉Fanell说：

“In my opinion, China is knowingly, operationally and incrementally seizingmaritime rights of its neighbors under the rubric of a maritime history that isnot only contested in the international community, but has largely been fabricatedby Chinese government propaganda bureaus in order to quote-unquote ‘educate’the populace about China’s ‘rich maritime history’ clearly as a tool to helpsustain the Party’s control.”】

“在我看来，中国是明知故犯。中国打着航海历史的名义不断夺取其邻国海洋权益，而这些航海历史不但在国际社会备受争议，且在很大程度上，（这些航海历史）是中宣部为了‘告诉’民众‘中国拥有丰富的海洋历史’而捏造出来的。（这种宣传）很明显是用来维持共产党的统治的。”
（来自：http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/c ... -war-against-japan/

Well, guess China isn't afraid of japan, despite what some fearful nationals on here would like to believe. However i don't believe a short sharp war against Japanese would work, not because japan could fend off china, but because history shows when nations plan for short quick wars they always end up lasting much longer than first plan.

好吧，这里除了某些感到恐惧的国民之外，（大家都认为）中国并不怕日本。但是，我并不认为一场“短期且有力的战争”会起到任何作用。这并不是因为日本可以抵御中国，而是因为历史证明，当一个国家计划爆发一场短期战争时，这场战争通常都会远比最初计划持续得更久。

评论：

Rei Murasame
So in other words, you are saying that Japan would fend off China. My view is that Chinais simply wasting time again, and this controversy is their way of distractingfrom the dire economic situation that they have walked themselves into.

所以，换句话说，你的意思是：日本可以抵御中国。我认为，中国又在浪费时间了。而这场争论就是他们（为了把国民视线）从他们正踏上的严峻经济形势上转移走的一种方法。

AhovkingRei Murasame
No, i believe maybe if war was declared the island hopping may takes longer than expected, or Japan might be able to hold the Chinese advancements, a whole number of things could happen that couldhappen that could cause the Chinese plan for a shortwar to last much longer than planed.
Also the massive Mission Action 2013 exercise was not a public exercise thing, though itwas not kept top secret it nether was it widely talked or promoted about fromthe Chinese, most of the information we are receivingare from the Americans and not the Chinese. This is why the 'West' isworried/interested in these exercises.

不，我相信，也许，如果这场战争被宣布为越岛作战的话，这场战争可能会花费比预期更长的时间，还是日本或许能够抵挡住中国的优势，许多变数都可能导致中国短暂战争的计划被无限延长。
同样，这些大量的2013使命行动军演并不是面向公众的演习，虽然这些军演并不是顶级机密，但它也不会允许被中国人广泛地讨论。我们大多数的信息来源都是从美国那里得来的而不是中国。这就是为什么“西方国家”非常担心/感兴趣这些军演。

mikema63
Or perhaps they are looking for something to throw resources at as a stimulus?
If they do invade Japan and quickly take over it would give the US an excellent excuse to take back Japan and perhaps beat china up a bit and increase its control over the two countries. As long as the US avoids a land war on the Chinese mainland I think they won't have much trouble.

或者也许中国在寻找一个消耗资源（这里大概指中国过剩的产能？）的途径来刺激（经济）？
如果中国的确入侵且迅速控制了日本，那么这将给美国一个极好的借口去夺回日本，并且也许会稍微打败中国一下，同时提升自己对于这两个国家的掌控。只要美国避免在中国大陆的陆战，我认为美国就不会有什么大麻烦。

Akuma
lol that fun stuff again. Chinese soldiers always come into contact with Japanese land only one way, as floating androtting corpses.
If Chinatries to "invade" JapanI believe that’s a good opportunity to test unusual weapons. China is a topcountry for biological warfare for example. I would find it very interesting ifEbola or Marburggenome is mixed with the cellular hull of a flu virus. Such tests were already conducted and it would be interesting tosee how the society would react. The great cities would break apart within daysand civilian society would come completely to a halt.
I support unusual methods 100% and in wareverything is allowed.

啊哈哈哈，又是这些有趣的东西。中国军人总是能够接触到日本本土，并且（他们接触到日本本土）只有一种方法，那就是漂浮（过来），以及（变成）腐烂的尸体。
如果中国“入侵”日本，我相信这是一个很好的检验（我们的）非常规武器的机会。比如说，中国就是（我们）进行生物战的最佳选择。我会觉得如果埃博拉病毒或马尔堡基因与流感病毒的细胞（蛋白质）壳混合起来的话，将会非常有趣。这样的测试已经进行过了，看看社会会有什么样的反应是很有趣的。大城市会在几天之内分崩离析，并且平民社会会完全陷入停滞（状态）。
我100%支持（这种）非常规方法，在战争中，（做）任何事情都是被允许的。

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Changes in theaverage physique of Chinese soldiers over the past 20 years havecreated a need for newer and larger armaments.
The PLA Daily cited research findings onTuesday by an unidentified institute of the PLA General Armament Departmentthat today's averageChinese soldieris 2 cm taller and has a waistline 5 centimeters larger than the average 20years ago.
The findings come from a survey beganin 2009 of more than 20,000 soldiers in the PLA's ground force. The survey measured and analyzed the body size,strength and other factors. Because the soldiers' average size has grown,larger military equipment is urgently needed, the researchers said.
A soldier of average size could feel crampedin some commonly used tanks, which were designed to accommodate the smallertroops of 30 years ago.
"Armaments and military personnel'sphysiques should be matched because that is the only way to ensure proper useof the equipment," said Ding Songtao, who led the research.
The research measured 28 features of the humanbody, compared with seven in previous studies. Anew database ofergonomic parameters was compiled on such factors as hand strength, which wouldhelp determine the optimum sensitivity of triggers.
Ding said the survey findings have been used in designingweapons and equipment for artillery, armored forces, engineers and the chemicaldefense corps.
The changes in physique have otherconsequences, said Wang Ya'nan, a military expert in Beijing. "The improvement of Chinese people's physical condition makes iteasier to recruit military personnel," Wang said. "Although soldiersdo not have to do much manual labor requiring physical strength, unlike theirpredecessors, many jobs in the military and especially the army still requirestrong soldiers."
For instance, he said, thoughdesigners have been striving to reduce the weight of foot soldiers' individualequipment, the overall load carried by each soldier is not significantlylighter than before.
"That is because the army wants to addmore functions to soldiers' backpacks to diversify their roles in combat,"Wang said. "Soldiers must be strong to carry this equipment. So the factthat Chinese people are becoming taller andstronger provides more options to the military."
Meanwhile, advances in technology, engineeringand manufacturing have enabled the air force to relax its criteria in choosingpilots, he said.
"In the past, the air force would notselect tall pilots because military aircraft cockpits were usually small. Butsince the advanced aerodynamic design and cutting-edge electronics have beenadopted in new-generation planes, there is considerably more space for pilots,allowing tall people to fit in."

在过去的20年中，中国士兵的平均体格已经有所变化，中国军队需要更新的以及更大的武器（来适应士兵体格的改变）。周二，解放军日报援引解放军总装备部某研究机构的机构研究结果显示，如今的普通中国士兵比20年前的平均身高高2cm，且腰围比20年前的平均值增加5厘米。这项研究结果源自于一项从2009年开始的调查，该研究调查了超过20,000名解放军的陆军士兵。这项调查测量和分析了身体尺寸，强壮程度等因素。研究人员表示，因为士兵的平均体格不断增长，军队迫切需要更大的军事装备。普通体格的士兵在一些常用坦克中会感到拥挤，因为这些坦克是30年为（和现在比）身材较小的士兵们设计的。领导这项研究的丁宋涛（音译）表示：“军队装备应该和军事人员的体格大小相匹配，因为这样才能确保士兵们正确使用这些装备”。
与以往（只测量）7项指标不同，这次的研究测量了人体的28项指标。专家们编译了一个新型的人体工程学参数数据库，使得我们可以考虑到例如手的力量等因素，由此，帮助我们确定触发器的最佳灵敏度。丁宋涛（音译）表示，这些调查结果已经被用于火炮，装甲部队，工程师和防化兵的武器装备设计中。“士兵身体素质的变化还有其他影响”，北京的军事专家王雅南（音译）如此说道。 “中国人体质的改善使国家更容易招募士兵”。 王雅南同时提到，“虽然和老一辈士兵不同，现如今的士兵们不用做太多消耗体能的体力劳动，但军队里的许多工作，特别是陆军，仍然需要强壮的士兵”。“例如”，他说，“虽然设计师一直在努力减少步兵单兵装备的重量，但每个士兵所需携带的总重量，并没有比之前轻多少”。
“那是因为，为了让战士们在战斗中有不同的分工，陆军需要给士兵的背包中添加更多的装备”，王雅南说。 “士兵们必须能够抗起这些设备。所以，中国人正在变得更高、变壮这件事，事实上为中国军队提供了更多的选择”。“同时”，他说，“技术、工程和制造业的进步也使得空军在选择飞行员时放宽了标准”。“在过去，空军不会选择身材高大的飞行员，因为军用飞机驾驶舱通常很小，但自从我们在新一代飞机上采用了先进的空气动力学设计和尖端的电子产品，驾驶舱内就给飞行员们留出了很多空间，身材高大的飞行员也可以钻进去了。“

ThirdTerm
The Philippines lost its battle over the ScarboroughShoal and Chinatook effective control of the shoal after erecting a barrier to its entranceand started turning away Filipino vessels approaching the shoal. Theinternational community has done nothing so far to contain China's territorial expansionism in the SouthChina Sea but economic sanctions could have been imposed on China undernormal circumstances. China's illegal seizure of the Scarborough Shoal set abad precedent for Asian nations, which is similar to the Sudeten Crisis in1938, but the Senkakus would not be seized easily by the PLA as any Chineseattempt to take over the disputed islands will automatically trigger a US-ledmilitary response in accordance of the US-Japan mutual defence treaty. Hitlerunderestimated Britain's determination to defend Poland in 1939 when NaziGermany invaded the country in defiance of the Munich Agreement and the PLA maybe about to repeat Hitler's mistake.
“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, thereis growing concern that China’spattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assertcontrol of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite theobjections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation orapparent basis under international law.” Fannell said. Fannell noted the nationhas allocated $1.6 million on improvements to disputed South China Sea outposts. Developing ports, air fields, waterpurification and surveillance systems. “Meanwhile, China describes efforts by othernations to improve the navigability of their outposts as egregious provocationsand responded with threats.” Fannell’s assessment of the Chinese lies seeminglyin contrast to American efforts to forge close military-to-military ties withthe country. On the same panel the Navy’s head of operations, plans andstrategy, Rear Adm. James Foggo described a successful meeting between U.S.Navy officials and the head of the PLAN, Adm. Wu Shengli. The U.S. delegationtoured PLAN ships and submarines. However, shortly after they left, the Chinesedeclared the controversial Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over a largeswath over the East China Sea in November.

菲律宾在与中国的抗争中失去了黄岩岛。并且，在中国有效控制了黄岩岛并在岛礁的入口处设置了障碍之后，中国回过头开始驱离接近黄岩岛的菲律宾的船只了。至今为止，国际社会在遏制中国在南中国海的领土扩张方面，除了通常情况下的经济制裁之外什么都没有做。中国的非法获得黄岩岛给亚洲诸国的开了一个坏的先例，这种行为类似于1938年的苏台德危机，但钓鱼岛不会轻易地被解放军获得，因为任何一个试图接收这个争议岛屿的中国人，都会自动触发美日安保条例，从而导致以美国为首的军事应对。当纳粹德国蔑视慕尼黑协定而入侵波兰的时候，希特勒低估了英国的1939年捍卫波兰的决心。而PLA也许即将重复希特勒犯下的错误。
“正如一名美国政府高级官员近日表示的那样，人们越来越担心这种行为在中国在南中国海的这种中国模式。他们认为这种模式表明了中国在努力扩张，通过控制9段线以内的这片海域，且无视邻国的反对以及相关国际法的解释或明确依据的缺失。” Fannell上尉如此说道。 Fannell同时指出，国家已拨款160万用于改善位于有争议的中国南海的警戒部队。这些钱用于发展港口，飞机场，净水系统以及监控系统。“同时，中国将其他国家为了保证通航而改善其基地的行为描述为令人震惊的挑衅行为，并且（中方负责人）回答的语气带有威胁性。”与Fannell对中国的评价正相反，美国在努力与中国建立密切的军事关系。在同一小组中，美国海军作战、策划以及战略指挥，海军少将James Foggo描述了美国海军官员与中国海军上将吴胜利（音译）之间一次成功的会议。美国代表团参观了中国海军舰艇和潜艇。然而，美国代表团离开后不久，中国就于去年11月宣布了涵盖东中国海大片地区的富有争议的防空识别区（ADIZ）。

nucklepunche
Chinacould never defeat Japanbecause NATO would immediately come to Japan's aid. In spite of China's powerNATO is technologically superior and would defeat them. A lot of Chinesemilitarism, howeve,r, is sabre rattling. They don't really intend to invade Japan, they are just trying to show they havemuscle and be a thorn in Japan'sside.

中国永远也打不败日本，因为北约会迅速驰援日本。暂且不说中国的力量，北约在技术上超过中国并将会击败中国。中国的军国主义正在增长，但这都只是剑拔弩张的惊悚场面而已。他们并不是真心想进攻日本，他们只是在试图展现肌肉，并且（试图）成为日本的眼中钉而已。

Istanbuller
Quote:
The Philippines lost its battle over the ScarboroughShoal and Chinatook ……
Hopefully Chinawill invade the Philippinestoo and put an end to that absurd American construction state.

引用之前“菲律宾失去了黄岩岛”的评论
我希望中国也能进攻菲律宾，并且结束菲律宾现在这种荒唐的美式国家的状态。

mikema63
Quote:
absurd Americanconstruction state
What's your beef with the Philippines?

回复上文Istanbller
你对菲律宾有什么牢骚可发的？

Ahovking
ThirdTerm wrote:
The Philippineslost its battle over the Scarborough Shoal and China
How could economic sanctions be imposed on China? China the most important and largest tradingpartner to more counties than the USand alot of counties including Australiais heavily depended on Chinaand her growth as well as her wiliness to spend large sums of money in ourcountry. Economic sanctions would hurt most counties including the United States as much as it would hurt China, remember the UShas a massive trading deficit with Chinaand if trade was to stop, the US would hurt as much as China would if China faced globe economic sanctions. reality is.. you cant sanctions the world ssecond largest economy in the world.

回复上文 ThirdTerm 关于菲律宾失去黄岩岛的发言
你怎么可能把经济制裁强加给中国？相对于美国，中国是更多国家的最重要的且是最大贸易伙伴。许多国家，包括澳大利亚都严重依赖中国、中国的（经济）增长、以及中国是否愿意在我们国家砸大钱（投资）。经济制裁（中国）会使得包括美国在内的绝大多数国家受到和中国一样的伤害。记住，美国和中国的贸易有着巨大的贸易赤字，如果经济制裁中国导致这些贸易停止，那么美国和中国受到的伤害是一样深的。事实就是……你无法制裁世界第二大经济体。

nucklepunche wrote:
China could never defeat Japan because NATO would immediately come to Japan's aid.
Please Remember that Reports published by Taiwan and another report published by the United States has concluded that China's arms buildup over the last two decades would give it the power to invade Taiwan (and surrounding islands) by 2020 even if allies(the United States and Japan) came to the island's aid. (similar conclusions have been made by Rssia, Australia, Philippines,UK and Germany)
Around 2020, Chinawill be able to take the islands by force and the US and its allies will be helplessto do anything about it.

回复nucklepunche：“中国永远也打不败日本，因为北约会迅速驰援日本。”
请记住，台湾和美国都各发表过一份报告，且两份报告均表示，中国在过去20年间的军备扩张使得中国在2020年有能力在有美日盟友的支援台湾的情况下，入侵台湾（以及台湾周边岛屿）。（俄罗斯，澳大利亚，菲律宾，英国以及德国都做出了同样的结论）。2020年左右，中国将可以武力接管台湾，无奈美国和她的盟友却什么都做不了。

Beren
I think China will take Taiwan peacefully, but they willtake the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands by force.
Time seems to be on their side anyway.

我认为中国会和平统一台湾，但是他们会在钓鱼岛动用武力。
无路如何，时间站在他们（中国）那边。

nucklepunche
Quote:
Please Remembe rthat Reports published by Taiwan and another report published by the United States has concluded that China's arms……
The issue is how much force NATO and Japan are willing to use. I'm not sure they would be willing to spend the levels of resources it would take to defeat China. I think Japan might be more willing to fight for Taiwan for ideological and historical reasons,but the USAmight end up caving to American businessmen who would fear losing access toChinese markets and cheap labor due to retaliation. I think this is what the Chinese are counting on.
Their ultimate problem is they can't makethemselves look too bad and result in economic sanctions. Otherwise they wouldhave taken over Taiwanalready. They just count on slowly absorbing Taiwanby making the USAtoo economically beholden to them to do anything about it.
I still believe if NATO totally committeditself to the cause, without bowing to economic pressure from businessintertests, could defeat China.However I hope it never comes to a situation like that.

引用上文nucklepunche 自己说的
问题是，北约和日本愿意出多大力？我不认为他们愿意花费用于击败中国所要消耗的巨额的资源。我倒是认为日本为了意识形态和历史原因会更愿意为台湾而战，而美国最终可能会屈服于美国商人。因为美国商人们害怕会因中国的报复而失去中国市场以及廉价劳动力。我认为，中国人正是寄希望于（美国的）这一点。
他们（中国人面临的）最终的问题是他们不能让自己看起来太邪恶，从而导致（被他国）经济制裁。如果不是考虑到这一点，他们早就收复台湾了。中国人寄希望于通过让美国在经济上过度依赖自己，使美国人（为了经济利益）愿意听命于中国，从而慢慢吸收台湾。我仍然相信，如果北约全心致力于自己的事业，而不是因为经济压力而向商业利益低头，那么我们就可以打败中国。虽然我并不希望这一天到来。

Akuma
That’s a wrongassumption, i believe this situation is a historic imperative and will happen. Chinaneeds to be put in place。

这是一个错误的假设，我相信这种情况具有历史必要性，并这种情况将会发生。我们需要把中国放回属于她的位置。

Dagoth Ur
By who Akuma? Japan? You onlyresist China now because America needsAsian vassal of some importance. This isn't 1940 anymore bro.

谁来（把中国）放（回属于她的位置）？日本？你抵制中国只是因为美国需要一个比较有分量的亚洲附庸（国）。现在已经不是1940年了，兄弟。

Akuma
Dagoth Ur wrote:
By who Akuma? Japan? ……
we beat china since 660 before christ. Wecrushed them when they were stronger than today compared to us. Why do youthink Japannever felt under their influence and crushed the sinocentric world view? Chinais a glass giant.

回复上文Dagoth Ur “谁来放”
在公元前660年我们就击退了中国。我们击败他们的时候，他们比今天的中国对我们来说更强大。你为什么认为日本从未感到受其影响并且粉碎了以中国为中心的世界观呢？中国就是一个玻璃（做的）巨人。

Dagoth Ur
Because you'reon islands and islands are notoriously hard to invade (especially mountainousones). And China today isquite different from any Chinayou've ever dealt with before. Certainly the most organized (on a leadershiplevel) China.

那是因为日本是岛国，而岛国是出了名的易守难攻（尤其是山地岛国）。而现在的中国，和日本之前认识的中国是完全不一样的。当然，我指的是领导层面上有组织的中国。

Akuma
Dagoth Ur wrote:
Because you're onislands ……
that is wrong, china is deeply divided insideand corrupted to the core. It was never before more easy to use divide etimpera tactics

回复上文Dagoth Ur
错，中国内部已经完全分裂并且核心已经损坏。（对于现在这种分裂状态的中国）这是前所未有的更易于使用“分而治之”策略的。

Far-Right Sage
Well, I wouldsay it was easier in the past, such as in thecase with the First Sino-Japanese War which resulted in the Japanese annexationof Taiwanin the first place. Qing Dynasty China was an easier nut to crackbecause it was led by a Manchu elite which many Han Chinese resented andultimately didn't want to sacrifice everything to defend. That and the factthat Empire of Japan enjoyed an extremely advantageous edge in innovation.
That said, I believe the modern People'sRepublic of China still hasmany understated internal weaknesses which will be easy to exploit, no lessfrom a Japanwhich has an extremely creative capacity and leads the world in innovation.
As for the comments about the Filipinodispute with China,I wouldn't even put the two in the same league. Japanis most definitely not the Philippines.Though the Filipino weakness in that area underscores why a deadly serioussecurity arrangement must be drawn up between Japan,South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia,the Philippines, and Thailand.

好吧，我觉得过去（打败中国）更容易一点。比如在第一次中日战争中，日本原先吞并了台湾。清朝时期的中国是一个更容易啃的骨头，因为清朝是由一名满族精英（统治的），而许多中国汉族怨恨（满族统治），（并且）不想牺牲一切来捍卫（清朝统治下的中国）。这些事实（说明了），大日本帝国当时正在享受着创新带来的极为有利的优势（地位）。
不过，我相信，现代的中华人民共和国内部仍然有很多不为人注意的弱点，这会很容易被利用，不过日本这个拥有极高创新能力且引导世界创新的国家（内部应该）也有不少（不为人注意的弱点）。
关于那些菲律宾和中国争端的评论，我从来不会把（日本和菲律宾）这两个（国家）放在一个等级中（对比）。日本绝绝对对和菲律宾不一样。虽然菲律宾在那一地区的弱点凸显了必须在日本，韩国，越南，印尼，菲律宾和泰国之间制定一个安全协定是多么紧急的事情。

benpenguin
Guys, I think Ineed to point out the fact that military exercises are always based on"possible scenarios" - Japanis currently no.1 enemy of China,and Diaoyu island is the frontier of disputes - so why the hell wouldn't thePLA use that as their imaginary battlefield?
Remember that PLA has been conducting militaryexercises EVEN against imaginary Soviets wayyyyy before the Sino-Russian split,when USSRis still "Big brother". It is the duty of the military to guess +prepare where potential conflicts could be, and politicians to decide whatactually to do.
Yes, we are hostile to far right Japan,but this particular exercise is no indication of wanting to go to war.
Akuma, you will be surprised how united peoplewill get against a commonly hated enemy. This is just basic psychology.

伙计们，我想我需要指出，军事演习始终基于“可能出现的情况”这一事实。日本目前是中国的头号敌人，而钓鱼岛是争议的前沿。那么，（中国）为什么不在他们的假想战场使用PLA呢？请记住，即使在中苏同盟瓦解之前，当苏联还是（中国的）“老大哥”的时候，PLA就始终致力于对抗苏联的假想军事演习。这是军队的职责是去猜测和准备哪里存在潜在冲突的可能性，政治家的职责是来决定实际上做什么。
是的，我们敌对的是极端右倾的日本，但这个特殊的演习并不代表我们想要发动战争。
Akuma，你会惊奇地发现团结一致的人们是如何对待人民公敌的。这不过是基本的心理学（而已）。

Rei Murasame
Actually, thatmight be a pretty good point. This might be a whole lot of thinking about ascenario that simply won't unfold.

事实上，（我认为）这是一个非常好的观点。所有的这些想象大概都是关于一个永远不可能发生的场景的。

Ahovking
nucklepunche wrote:
The issue is how much force NATO and Japan are willing to use.
You can’t sanctions the worlds second largesteconomy in the world.
China's the most important and largest tradingpartner to more counties than the US and a lot of counties including Australia isheavily depended on China and her growth as well as her wiliness to spend largesums of money in their country. Economic sanctions would hurt most counties includingthe United States as much asit would hurt China,remember the US has amassive trading deficit with China andif trade was to stop, the USwould hurt as much as Chinawould if Chinafaced globe economic sanctions. reality is.. you cant sanctions the worldssecond largest economy in the world.

回复nucklepunche 关于北约会驰援日本的发言
你无法制裁世界第二大经济体。
（注：原文中的counties[县]，应该换成countries[国家]更说得通。于是自主更换。）（斜体这段是引用上文的发言）
对于更多的国家来说，中国才是她们最重要的，且最大的贸易伙伴而非美国。许多国家，包括澳大利亚，在很大程度上依赖于中国、中国的成长、以及中国是否愿意在这些国家花大笔的钱。经济制裁会伤害大多数国家，包括美国，而中国也会受到同等的伤害。记住了美国和中国之间有着巨大的贸易赤字。如果停止贸易，如果中国面临全球经济制裁，美国会受到和中国所受同等级的伤害。（所以）现实就是......你不能制裁的世界第二大经济体。

Akuma
benpenguin wrote:
Guys, I think Ineed to point out the fact that military exercises are always based on"possible scenarios"……
I doubt Uighurs will be very united againstus. I also doubt that the corrupted elite will be very united when we freezetheir money on the cayman islands.
Oh and Ahovking, the German empire was thelargest economy in WW I, that did not mean it was not sanctioned and isolatedin a marine blockade. I'm against sanctions though. Sanctions don't create thepressure like ABC weapons. I believe such a war would be the best possibilityto create new types of warfare and creative solutions. Why damage suchpossibilities with sanctions?

回复benpenguin
我怀疑维吾尔族人是否会团结一致对抗我们。我同样也怀疑，当我们冻结了那些腐败精英们在开曼群岛的资金时，他们是否会团结一致。
哦对了，Ahovking，德意志帝国是第一次世界大战时世界第一大经济体，单着并不意味着他不会被制裁，并被孤立于海洋封锁。虽然我反对制裁。制裁并不会带来如同ABC武器那样的压力。我相信这种战争（生化战）极有可能创造出新型的战争形式并出现创造性的解决方案。为什么要用制裁破坏这种可能性？

benpenguin
Well, we gotinvaded constantly by barbarians in the last 5 thousand years, and we have theproblem of corrupted elites and incited minority tribes on our backs all thetime - every single one of our enemies use that tactic you mentioned. We arepretty experienced with that kinda stuff.
Oh, the Japs actually failed to do the minority bit last time, because behaving like the belligerent brutes you are,you lot failed to win over anybody. They joined the Chinese resistance. This time around, sinceyour Western masters stirred enough trouble inUighur and Tibet,you might have a chance! Who knows.
Anyway, lets stop the pissing contest shall we? Your opinion will always be "JAPAN IS SUPERIOR WE CRUSHCHINAAA!", and I think we are already very familiar with each other'sviewpoint by now.

好吧，在过去5000年的历史中，我们不断地被蛮夷入侵，我们有一群腐败的精英，我们身后还始终有被煽动少数民族部落的问题。而我们的每一个敌人都会使用你提到的那种战术。我们对这种情况还是是相当有经验的。
哦，小日本上次居然没有成为少数入主中原的民族，因为你们的行为就像好战畜生，你们没有赢得过任何人。他们（少数民族）加入了中国的抵抗。这一次，你的西方师傅在XJ和XZ搅和了不少麻烦事，所以你们可能会有机会！不过谁知道呢。
不管怎样，让我们停止这场撒尿比赛好吗？您的意见将永远是“我们日本是卓越的！我们粉碎了中国！”，我想目前为止，大家都已经很熟悉对方的观点了。

Akuma
benpenguin wrote:
Well, we gotinvaded constantly by barbarians in the last 5 thousand years,……
That’s quite wrong and you know this. I believe separatist movements and sanctions are just one side of the medal.Nuclear weapons also only serve as warning and are not functional in such a scenario. I believe biological warfare is a perfect tool in a clash between China and Japan. Since China acts asthe aggressor I would be interested in several aspects. It would solve many aspects. The Chinese society would collapse into chaos within days and so would China‘s ability to wage war.
We would force sanctions on Chinain this step, if other nations want it or not. China must be isolated in thatcase, no matter what, simply to stop the outbreak.
The psychological effect of an attack likethis is enormous and as powerful as the virus itself. Dependingon the virus it would even lead to the possibility that China has to nuke its own cities.
Japan is a leading nation in GM technology andvirology. Chinais not. Japanese institutions already created supervirus in thepast, putting Ebola into the virus hull of highlyinfectious flu virus for example. The possibilities today areendless. If you look at the outbreaks of several birdfluvirus in the past, suchoperations could already start before any war and bring chinas ability to wagewar at the beginning stage without bringing japan in danger. It could even geta positive end for japan. Since evry bioweapon consists of two parts, the virus and the cure,japan could bring the cure after letting the virus run rampage for 2or 3 weeks.
This could improve chinese - japan relationsin a great way.

回复上面benpenguin
你知道这是完全错误的。我相信，分离主义运动和制裁只是奖牌的一面。核武器在这种情况下也只能作为警告而起不到任何作用。我相信生物战是中日冲突中（日本应该对中国使用）的最佳工具。由于中国是侵略者，我会对几个方面感兴趣。这将解决很多方面的问题。中国社会会在几天之内崩溃，因此中国会失去发动战争的能力。
在这种情况下，不管其他国家愿意与否，我们都会强制对中国实施制裁。这种情况下中国必须被隔离，不管怎样，就是为了阻止（中国）爆发。这样的攻击（指生化武器）所带来的心理影响是巨大的，和（生化武器所使用的）病毒本身是一样强大的。取决于（日本所选的）病毒的种类的不同，中国甚至有可能不得不核平自己的城市。
日本在转基因技术和病毒学领域的研究处于国际领先地位，而中国不是。日本的（研究）机构已经合成了超级病毒，把埃博拉病毒放入具有高度传染性的病毒的（蛋白质）外壳内，例如流感病毒的外壳。现今世界，一切皆有可能。如果你看看之前爆发的几起禽流感疫情（你就会知道），我们可以在任何战争爆发前做这些动作（投放病毒，让中国爆发疫情），从而在最开始阶段夺去中国发动战争的能力，且不伤及日本分毫。这（种行动）甚至可以给日本带来一个良好的结局。由于每种生化武器都有两个部分组成，也即病毒部分和解药部分。日本可以让这种病毒（在中国）肆虐2到3周以后再带去（提供）解药。
这将会极大地促进中日关系（的好转）。

Ahovking
Akuma wrote:
Oh and Ahovking,the german empire was the largest economy in WW I, ……
Akuma the United States Was the worldslargest economy in World War 1 (USA achieved the title in 1900 from memory). Also Germany was very muchisolated,
It became a great power, boasting a rapidlygrowing rail network, the world's strongest army, and a fast-growing industrialbase.[11] Its navy went from being negligible to second only behind the Royal Navy in less than adecade. After the removal of the powerful Chancellor Otto von Bismarck in 1890following the death of Emperor Wilhelm I, the young Emperor Wilhelm II engagedin increasingly reckless foreign policies that left the Empire isolated.
Just like the Soviet Union, German empire waseconomically isolated from its neighbors and its main competitor the British empire. Being economically isolated allowed Germany to be "sanctioned" and laterblockaded during the war with little effect domestically to Germany's neighbors and Britain.
This can’t happen to China. First China is not aneconomically isolated, nations like Australia heavily depends on China tradeand without we would immediately go into a recession as well as 72 counties(most developed) who also heavily depends on China trade, Blockading orsanctioning the world second largest economy which most developed counties relyon to buy their debt (to fund theirgrowth) and for cheep goods to sell as well as developing countries to buytheir reasoues could result in a global great depression, harming the West asmuch as it would harm China.
The same thing would happen if we sanctioned Japan or the United States. Too many countriesIncluding the United States depend to heavily on China.

回复上篇Akuma发言
Akuma，第一次世界大战时，美国是当时世界上最大的经济体（没记错的话，美国在1900年成为了第一名）。此外，德国（当时）是非常孤立的，
她（美国）成为了一个大国，她拥有快速成长的铁路网，世界上最强的军队，以及快速增长的产业基地。[11]美国世界排名第二的海军被忽略了，她的海军仅次于英国皇家海军而且差距不到10年。1890年，（德国）在撤换掉强大的总理奥托·冯·俾斯麦之后，皇帝威廉一世不久也去世了。年轻皇帝威廉二世鲁莽的外交政策使得帝国日益被孤立起来。（译注：这里为某文章的引用）
就如同苏联，德意志帝国在经济上被她的邻居和她最主要的对手，大英帝国所孤立。被经济上孤立事实上表明了德国可以被“孤立”，同时也表明了即使（德国）在战时被封锁，对于德国周边国家和英国来说也几乎没有什么影响。
（但）这不可能发生在中国。首先，中国不是一个被孤立的经济体，很多国家，比如澳大利亚，就严重依赖同中国的贸易。没有（与中国的贸易），我们会立即进入经济衰退，另外72个严重依赖同中国贸易的国家（大部分是发达国家）也会如此。世界上最发达的国家依靠买中国的国债（用于资助中国的发展）以及从她那里买便宜货来过活。同样的，发展中国家需要购买中国的资源。制裁这样一个世界第二大经济体可能会导致全球经济大萧条，西方国家会遭受到和中国同等程度的损害。
如果我们制裁美国或者日本，相同的事情也会发生。太多的国家，包括美国，已经过分依赖中国了。