超级军网[原创翻译]美国专家：朝鲜卫星非常接近武器
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 12:45:56
这是半年多以前，美国太空专家James Oberg参观朝鲜西海卫星发射场以后的访谈记录。朝鲜太空计划正在稳步推进，关于朝鲜准备发射的卫星和火箭与军事技术到底有多大关联，应该听听亲历者的意见。
原文地址：
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_ne ... -but-its-darn-close
NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close'
NBC太空专家评论朝鲜卫星发射：“这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。”
By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer
When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.
当我们了解到，朝鲜正在计划第一次向外国记者开放其严格保密的西海卫星发射场时，NBC新闻迅速决定，我们将需要一双专家的眼睛，来判断平壤宣布其最新一次火箭发射是出于和平的科学意图的准确性和可靠性。
North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.
朝鲜说，它正计划在四月中旬，使用三级火箭，发射一颗气象观测卫星，以纪念朝鲜创始人金日成百年诞辰。但是美国和韩国表示，这是一次弹道导弹的实验。
So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.
因此，NBC新闻邀请我们的“太空顾问”詹姆斯·奥伯格陪伴我们前往朝鲜，去观摩光明星1号卫星。
With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.
奥伯格作为太空工程师支持美国宇航局航天业务，职业生涯长达22年，他具有判断朝鲜对此次任务所宣布意图真实性的经验和技术专长。
NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.
在周日参观了西海卫星发射场以后，NBC记者与奥伯格坐在一起，以期获得他对这一设施本身、神秘的卫星，以及朝鲜太空计划未来发展的最初印象。
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Q. What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?
A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.
问：这次访问西海以后，您的第一印象是什么？
答：前往那里正是令人惊讶的，印象就是朝鲜政府中有人做出了一个非常大胆的决定：让我们去。
Q. Going into this, you said you had a couple of standards you were looking for in this satellite that would in your mind, settle whether it was real. What were they?
A: I expected the satellite to be in a clean room; a clean environment free of dust, smudges and things. I expected the satellite to probably be already mounted on the third stage [hardware that connects to the booster] and ready to move out to the launch pad. I expected the satellite to have a reasonable design; it should follow standard designs, like power and solar panels and so forth. I was really surprised by what we saw.
问：来到这里时，您说您在脑海中有几条标准，您在这颗卫星上面寻找这些标准，来决定它的真伪问题。是什么标准呢？
答：我预计这颗卫星是在干净的房间里，没有灰尘、污迹和杂物的干净环境。我预计这颗卫星可能已经完成了第三阶段安装（连接助推器的硬件）并且准备转移到发射台。我预计这颗卫星设计合理；它应该遵循标准的设计，如电源和太阳能电池板等等。我真的因为看到的东西而惊讶。
Q. So did this satellite pass muster?
A: The satellite did not meet the expectations I had. I have to ask myself whether these expectations may have been too narrow, but at the same time it raised questions in my mind as to how real what we were being shown was. We asked whether this was a mock-up; in fact, we kept on asking them again and again because they insisted this was a real satellite.
问：那么这颗卫星符合您的清单吗？
答：这颗卫星没有达到我的预计。我不得不问自己，这些预计是否可能过于狭窄，但是与此同时，我脑海里也提出了新的问题：我们面前展示的东西到底有多真实。我们问，这是不是一个模拟卫星；事实上，我们一遍又一遍地不断问他们，因为他们坚持说这是一颗真正的卫星。
The problem is the North Koreans didn’t just let us in [to the same room as the satellite], they let us get much too close. I could’ve walked three steps and poked it with my finger. But I didn’t want to put grease and smudges on the outside because it could lead the device to overheat in space or it could change a lot of things about the electro-static environment. So you need to protect the satellite from contamination – from touching, from people breathing on it, sneezing on it. And we were all coming in covered in dust after a long road trip. They didn’t protect the satellite from any of that.
问题是，朝鲜人不仅让我们（与这颗卫星）同处一室，他们让我们过于接近了。我可以向前走上三步，并用手指戳它。但是我不想把油脂和污迹留在它的外面，因为这些可能导致设备在外太空过热，或改变关于静电环境的很多东西。因此你需要保护卫星免受污染 -- 污染来自接触，来自人们在它上面的呼吸，还有打喷嚏。经过一段漫长的旅途，我们到来的每个人身上都布满灰尘。他们没有保护卫星，使它免受上面这些污染。
Maybe the satellite is built to be rugged; maybe they don’t care. We’ll find out if they launch it, if it works or not.
也许这颗卫星被造得很结实；也许他们不在乎。我们会发现是否他们发射了卫星，是否卫星在工作。
Q. Talk about your first impressions of the satellite. Was there anything surprising about the satellite to you?
A: I thought at first it was a model. I thought it was a symbolic representation. I couldn’t believe it was flight hardware. I couldn’t believe it was the one being launched in a few days.
问：谈谈您对卫星的第一印象。对您来说，这颗卫星有什么令人惊奇的地方吗？
答：我首先认为，它是个模型。我想它是个象征性的表示。我不敢相信它是可以飞行的装置。我不敢相信它是一个将在几天内发射的东西。
It’s certainly not a design I’ve seen much before. Right now, I’m curious about how the satellite was designed. I think perhaps they were worried we would be interested because until today they had not released a photograph or even a drawing of it. They kept its configurations a secret. Maybe it’s because they realized it was going to puzzle people.
这当然不是一个我在以前见过的设计。现在，我很好奇，到底这颗卫星是如何设计的。我想他们也许担心我们可能会感兴趣，因为直到今天，他们都没有公布有关它的一张照片甚至一幅画。他们对它的配置保密。可能这是因为，他们认识到这将会困扰人们。
Q. Talk about the significance of this launch. Why is it important?
A: This is a very significant launch because of the publicity on it. It’s going to be much harder to fake it if something does go wrong. But we should be prepared to accept a launch abort or a mission failure in a mature way, because that’s what happens to space powers when they start their program.
问：请说说本次发射的意义。为什么这很重要？
答：这是一次意义重大的发射，因为它的宣传效用。如果有什么事出问题了，想要弄虚作假就会更困难。但是，我们应该准备好，以自然而然的方式接受一次发射取消或任务失败，因为在太空大国开始他们的计划时，这是经常发生的。
The significance of the launch, of course, is the booster itself. The booster is bigger than it has to be. It’s based on Han missiles. It’s not a military missile … but it’s darn close. Like we’ve said on TV, this rocket is not a weapon, but it’s maybe 98 percent of one.
本次发射的意义，当然，它本身是一个助推器。这个助推器大于它应有的尺寸。它以汉式导弹为基础。这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。正如我们在电视上所说，这枚火箭不是武器，但是它也许是一件武器的98%。
It can be converted all too easily and all too frighteningly into a weapon, and they don’t need it. They don’t need a booster of this size, of this cost, to launch a satellite they say they want to. They seem to be overdoing it, and that can hurt a country, not help it.
它可以十分容易、十分令人恐惧地转化成为武器，而且他们并不需要它。他们不需要这种尺寸、这种价格的推进器，用来发射一颗他们自称想要发射的卫星。他们似乎做得太多了，这会伤害一个国家，而不是帮助它。
For example, the Russians were seriously involved in building similar projects like their own Buran space shuttle just to compete and show off to the West. And they contributed significantly to bankrupting their own intellectual potential and real budgets in the 1980s as [the Soviet Union] was grinding to a halt.
例如，俄罗斯人处心积虑地投入建造类似于暴风雪号航天飞机这样的项目，只是为了与西方竞争和炫耀。他们的做法显然导致了他们自己在1980年代的知识潜力与实际预算的损失，因此（苏联）逐渐停止了这个项目。
They didn’t go bankrupt because of the Buran project, but it did symbolize the wasteful spending that they were doing based on merely show-off projects. Those lessons should be taken to heart in a rational -- hypothetically rational -- North Korean regime.
他们没有因为暴风雪项目而破产，但是他们在仅仅为了炫耀的项目基础上所做的一切，确实象征着浪费性支出。这些教训，在一个理性的 -- 假设是理性的 -- 朝鲜政权里，应该被牢记在心。
Q: In your opinion, what are some of the problems the North Koreans face in launching this satellite?
A: The North Koreans face scheduling pressures as they have stated publicly already that they will launch it in time for a national holiday, and not just any holiday, one of the most profound national holidays in the country’s history [the 100th birthday of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung]. That kind of pressure has frequently led to disaster in other countries’ programs.
问：在您看来，对于发射这颗卫星，朝鲜人面对的问题有哪些呢？
答：朝鲜人面对着进度的压力，因为他们已经公开宣称，他们将在一个全国性的节日期间发射它。这个节日不同于其他节日，这是该国历史上最具重大意义的全国性节日之一（朝鲜开国领袖金日成的百年诞辰）。在其他国家的计划中，这种压力经常导致灾难。
So I think the odds of them actually successfully launching is a real toss-up. I wouldn’t want to put a number on it, but in my opinion it’s significantly in doubt that they’ll get this thing into orbit. And then, once it’s in orbit, I think it’s significantly in doubt that they can make it work. But they’re going to try, and they’ve chosen to do it in the full glare of publicity.
因此，我认为，他们实际成功发射的几率确实是难以确定。我不希望用一个数字来表示这种几率，但在我看来，他们能否把这颗卫星送进轨道，明显存在疑问。然后，当它进入轨道，我认为他们能否使它工作，明显存在疑问。但是他们要去尝试。他们选择在众多目光的关注下完成这件事。
But I think they need to be rewarded for making that decision. It doesn’t mean that we have to believe everything they have said, but we should at least pay some attention to it. It is a very dynamic situation because of the North Koreans' unprecedented openness. If we don’t want them to slam the door shut, we probably need to find some way of making it pay off for them.
但是我认为，他们做出这一决定，需要获得回报。这并不意味着我们必须相信他们所说的一切，但我们至少应该付出一定的关注。这是非常充满变数的情况，因为朝鲜表现出前所未有的公开性。如果我们不想让他们呯地一声关上大门，我们可能需要找到一些方法，使他们获得足够的报答。
Q. We only had limited access to the North Koreans’ launch control room, but can you give us your impressions of the area and its team?
A: As I’ve observed the control team, they were obviously set up in staged positions. The main thing I was impressed with was the familiarity of it from my own experience on our mission control. It really struck me as too elaborate and too authentic to be a fake. It felt real to me. The director’s presentation and answers felt real. They resonated with my own experiences, and so I have no doubt that they’re showing a genuine launch control center. To see this team there, it was a remarkable feeling of familiarity, even though I couldn’t understand them except through the interpreters.
问：我们仅仅有限度地接触了朝鲜的发射控制室，但是您能告诉我们对于这个地方及其团队的印象吗？
答：正如我观察到的控制团队，他们显然被安置在排练好的位置。我留下深刻印象的，主要是我在这个控制室的经历，与我在我们自己的任务控制中心的经历似曾相识。真正让我吃惊的，是它太复杂精密、太真实可信，而不像假的。它让我感到真实。主管的介绍和回答都让我感到真实。他们与我自己的经历产生了共鸣。因此我毫不怀疑，他们展示的是真正的发射控制中心。看到这个团队以后，我有一种明显的熟悉感，尽管我听不懂他们的话，除了通过口译员。
Q. If the launch is successful and the satellite deploys and accomplishes its mission, would that be a step toward North Korea becoming an equal partner in space?
A: It’s a sign they’ve put a lot of money on show-off projects because the actual services they expect to get from this [alleged weather] satellite can be obtained tomorrow with a credit card. There are a number of providers who already supply the information this satellite is supposed to provide like taking orbital pictures, providing weather data, etc. For a country of approximately 24 million in the economic state it’s in now, it basically can’t afford a rocket of this size. They are spending far too much money for a service they can easily obtain elsewhere. So the reasons for the launch must lie elsewhere. They probably want to sell these rockets to other countries. These other countries probably don’t want them for peaceful purposes either.
问：如果发射成功，卫星部署并完成了它的任务，这是否会成为朝鲜迈向平等的太空合作伙伴的一步？
答：这是一个信号，他们已经在炫耀性项目上投入了大量金钱，因为他们期待从这颗（宣称是气象）卫星上得到的实际服务，可以在明天通过一张信用卡来获得。有一定数量的提供商已经在供应这颗卫星预计会提供的信息，例如拍摄轨道图像，提供气象数据等。作为一个大约有2400万人口、经济处于现在这种状况的国家，朝鲜基本上无法负担这样大的一枚火箭。他们正在花费太多的金钱，用来获得他们可以轻易从其他地方得到的服务。因此，本次发射的原因一定在其他方面。他们也许希望向其他国家出售这些火箭。其他那些国家也许根本不会把它们用于和平目的。这是半年多以前，美国太空专家James Oberg参观朝鲜西海卫星发射场以后的访谈记录。朝鲜太空计划正在稳步推进，关于朝鲜准备发射的卫星和火箭与军事技术到底有多大关联，应该听听亲历者的意见。
原文地址：
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_ne ... -but-its-darn-close
NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close'
NBC太空专家评论朝鲜卫星发射：“这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。”
By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer
When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.
当我们了解到，朝鲜正在计划第一次向外国记者开放其严格保密的西海卫星发射场时，NBC新闻迅速决定，我们将需要一双专家的眼睛，来判断平壤宣布其最新一次火箭发射是出于和平的科学意图的准确性和可靠性。
North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.
朝鲜说，它正计划在四月中旬，使用三级火箭，发射一颗气象观测卫星，以纪念朝鲜创始人金日成百年诞辰。但是美国和韩国表示，这是一次弹道导弹的实验。
So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.
因此，NBC新闻邀请我们的“太空顾问”詹姆斯·奥伯格陪伴我们前往朝鲜，去观摩光明星1号卫星。
With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.
奥伯格作为太空工程师支持美国宇航局航天业务，职业生涯长达22年，他具有判断朝鲜对此次任务所宣布意图真实性的经验和技术专长。
NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.
在周日参观了西海卫星发射场以后，NBC记者与奥伯格坐在一起，以期获得他对这一设施本身、神秘的卫星，以及朝鲜太空计划未来发展的最初印象。
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Q. What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?
A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.
问：这次访问西海以后，您的第一印象是什么？
答：前往那里正是令人惊讶的，印象就是朝鲜政府中有人做出了一个非常大胆的决定：让我们去。
Q. Going into this, you said you had a couple of standards you were looking for in this satellite that would in your mind, settle whether it was real. What were they?
A: I expected the satellite to be in a clean room; a clean environment free of dust, smudges and things. I expected the satellite to probably be already mounted on the third stage [hardware that connects to the booster] and ready to move out to the launch pad. I expected the satellite to have a reasonable design; it should follow standard designs, like power and solar panels and so forth. I was really surprised by what we saw.
问：来到这里时，您说您在脑海中有几条标准，您在这颗卫星上面寻找这些标准，来决定它的真伪问题。是什么标准呢？
答：我预计这颗卫星是在干净的房间里，没有灰尘、污迹和杂物的干净环境。我预计这颗卫星可能已经完成了第三阶段安装（连接助推器的硬件）并且准备转移到发射台。我预计这颗卫星设计合理；它应该遵循标准的设计，如电源和太阳能电池板等等。我真的因为看到的东西而惊讶。
Q. So did this satellite pass muster?
A: The satellite did not meet the expectations I had. I have to ask myself whether these expectations may have been too narrow, but at the same time it raised questions in my mind as to how real what we were being shown was. We asked whether this was a mock-up; in fact, we kept on asking them again and again because they insisted this was a real satellite.
问：那么这颗卫星符合您的清单吗？
答：这颗卫星没有达到我的预计。我不得不问自己，这些预计是否可能过于狭窄，但是与此同时，我脑海里也提出了新的问题：我们面前展示的东西到底有多真实。我们问，这是不是一个模拟卫星；事实上，我们一遍又一遍地不断问他们，因为他们坚持说这是一颗真正的卫星。
The problem is the North Koreans didn’t just let us in [to the same room as the satellite], they let us get much too close. I could’ve walked three steps and poked it with my finger. But I didn’t want to put grease and smudges on the outside because it could lead the device to overheat in space or it could change a lot of things about the electro-static environment. So you need to protect the satellite from contamination – from touching, from people breathing on it, sneezing on it. And we were all coming in covered in dust after a long road trip. They didn’t protect the satellite from any of that.
问题是，朝鲜人不仅让我们（与这颗卫星）同处一室，他们让我们过于接近了。我可以向前走上三步，并用手指戳它。但是我不想把油脂和污迹留在它的外面，因为这些可能导致设备在外太空过热，或改变关于静电环境的很多东西。因此你需要保护卫星免受污染 -- 污染来自接触，来自人们在它上面的呼吸，还有打喷嚏。经过一段漫长的旅途，我们到来的每个人身上都布满灰尘。他们没有保护卫星，使它免受上面这些污染。
Maybe the satellite is built to be rugged; maybe they don’t care. We’ll find out if they launch it, if it works or not.
也许这颗卫星被造得很结实；也许他们不在乎。我们会发现是否他们发射了卫星，是否卫星在工作。
Q. Talk about your first impressions of the satellite. Was there anything surprising about the satellite to you?
A: I thought at first it was a model. I thought it was a symbolic representation. I couldn’t believe it was flight hardware. I couldn’t believe it was the one being launched in a few days.
问：谈谈您对卫星的第一印象。对您来说，这颗卫星有什么令人惊奇的地方吗？
答：我首先认为，它是个模型。我想它是个象征性的表示。我不敢相信它是可以飞行的装置。我不敢相信它是一个将在几天内发射的东西。
It’s certainly not a design I’ve seen much before. Right now, I’m curious about how the satellite was designed. I think perhaps they were worried we would be interested because until today they had not released a photograph or even a drawing of it. They kept its configurations a secret. Maybe it’s because they realized it was going to puzzle people.
这当然不是一个我在以前见过的设计。现在，我很好奇，到底这颗卫星是如何设计的。我想他们也许担心我们可能会感兴趣，因为直到今天，他们都没有公布有关它的一张照片甚至一幅画。他们对它的配置保密。可能这是因为，他们认识到这将会困扰人们。
Q. Talk about the significance of this launch. Why is it important?
A: This is a very significant launch because of the publicity on it. It’s going to be much harder to fake it if something does go wrong. But we should be prepared to accept a launch abort or a mission failure in a mature way, because that’s what happens to space powers when they start their program.
问：请说说本次发射的意义。为什么这很重要？
答：这是一次意义重大的发射，因为它的宣传效用。如果有什么事出问题了，想要弄虚作假就会更困难。但是，我们应该准备好，以自然而然的方式接受一次发射取消或任务失败，因为在太空大国开始他们的计划时，这是经常发生的。
The significance of the launch, of course, is the booster itself. The booster is bigger than it has to be. It’s based on Han missiles. It’s not a military missile … but it’s darn close. Like we’ve said on TV, this rocket is not a weapon, but it’s maybe 98 percent of one.
本次发射的意义，当然，它本身是一个助推器。这个助推器大于它应有的尺寸。它以汉式导弹为基础。这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。正如我们在电视上所说，这枚火箭不是武器，但是它也许是一件武器的98%。
It can be converted all too easily and all too frighteningly into a weapon, and they don’t need it. They don’t need a booster of this size, of this cost, to launch a satellite they say they want to. They seem to be overdoing it, and that can hurt a country, not help it.
它可以十分容易、十分令人恐惧地转化成为武器，而且他们并不需要它。他们不需要这种尺寸、这种价格的推进器，用来发射一颗他们自称想要发射的卫星。他们似乎做得太多了，这会伤害一个国家，而不是帮助它。
For example, the Russians were seriously involved in building similar projects like their own Buran space shuttle just to compete and show off to the West. And they contributed significantly to bankrupting their own intellectual potential and real budgets in the 1980s as [the Soviet Union] was grinding to a halt.
例如，俄罗斯人处心积虑地投入建造类似于暴风雪号航天飞机这样的项目，只是为了与西方竞争和炫耀。他们的做法显然导致了他们自己在1980年代的知识潜力与实际预算的损失，因此（苏联）逐渐停止了这个项目。
They didn’t go bankrupt because of the Buran project, but it did symbolize the wasteful spending that they were doing based on merely show-off projects. Those lessons should be taken to heart in a rational -- hypothetically rational -- North Korean regime.
他们没有因为暴风雪项目而破产，但是他们在仅仅为了炫耀的项目基础上所做的一切，确实象征着浪费性支出。这些教训，在一个理性的 -- 假设是理性的 -- 朝鲜政权里，应该被牢记在心。
Q: In your opinion, what are some of the problems the North Koreans face in launching this satellite?
A: The North Koreans face scheduling pressures as they have stated publicly already that they will launch it in time for a national holiday, and not just any holiday, one of the most profound national holidays in the country’s history [the 100th birthday of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung]. That kind of pressure has frequently led to disaster in other countries’ programs.
问：在您看来，对于发射这颗卫星，朝鲜人面对的问题有哪些呢？
答：朝鲜人面对着进度的压力，因为他们已经公开宣称，他们将在一个全国性的节日期间发射它。这个节日不同于其他节日，这是该国历史上最具重大意义的全国性节日之一（朝鲜开国领袖金日成的百年诞辰）。在其他国家的计划中，这种压力经常导致灾难。
So I think the odds of them actually successfully launching is a real toss-up. I wouldn’t want to put a number on it, but in my opinion it’s significantly in doubt that they’ll get this thing into orbit. And then, once it’s in orbit, I think it’s significantly in doubt that they can make it work. But they’re going to try, and they’ve chosen to do it in the full glare of publicity.
因此，我认为，他们实际成功发射的几率确实是难以确定。我不希望用一个数字来表示这种几率，但在我看来，他们能否把这颗卫星送进轨道，明显存在疑问。然后，当它进入轨道，我认为他们能否使它工作，明显存在疑问。但是他们要去尝试。他们选择在众多目光的关注下完成这件事。
But I think they need to be rewarded for making that decision. It doesn’t mean that we have to believe everything they have said, but we should at least pay some attention to it. It is a very dynamic situation because of the North Koreans' unprecedented openness. If we don’t want them to slam the door shut, we probably need to find some way of making it pay off for them.
但是我认为，他们做出这一决定，需要获得回报。这并不意味着我们必须相信他们所说的一切，但我们至少应该付出一定的关注。这是非常充满变数的情况，因为朝鲜表现出前所未有的公开性。如果我们不想让他们呯地一声关上大门，我们可能需要找到一些方法，使他们获得足够的报答。
Q. We only had limited access to the North Koreans’ launch control room, but can you give us your impressions of the area and its team?
A: As I’ve observed the control team, they were obviously set up in staged positions. The main thing I was impressed with was the familiarity of it from my own experience on our mission control. It really struck me as too elaborate and too authentic to be a fake. It felt real to me. The director’s presentation and answers felt real. They resonated with my own experiences, and so I have no doubt that they’re showing a genuine launch control center. To see this team there, it was a remarkable feeling of familiarity, even though I couldn’t understand them except through the interpreters.
问：我们仅仅有限度地接触了朝鲜的发射控制室，但是您能告诉我们对于这个地方及其团队的印象吗？
答：正如我观察到的控制团队，他们显然被安置在排练好的位置。我留下深刻印象的，主要是我在这个控制室的经历，与我在我们自己的任务控制中心的经历似曾相识。真正让我吃惊的，是它太复杂精密、太真实可信，而不像假的。它让我感到真实。主管的介绍和回答都让我感到真实。他们与我自己的经历产生了共鸣。因此我毫不怀疑，他们展示的是真正的发射控制中心。看到这个团队以后，我有一种明显的熟悉感，尽管我听不懂他们的话，除了通过口译员。
Q. If the launch is successful and the satellite deploys and accomplishes its mission, would that be a step toward North Korea becoming an equal partner in space?
A: It’s a sign they’ve put a lot of money on show-off projects because the actual services they expect to get from this [alleged weather] satellite can be obtained tomorrow with a credit card. There are a number of providers who already supply the information this satellite is supposed to provide like taking orbital pictures, providing weather data, etc. For a country of approximately 24 million in the economic state it’s in now, it basically can’t afford a rocket of this size. They are spending far too much money for a service they can easily obtain elsewhere. So the reasons for the launch must lie elsewhere. They probably want to sell these rockets to other countries. These other countries probably don’t want them for peaceful purposes either.
问：如果发射成功，卫星部署并完成了它的任务，这是否会成为朝鲜迈向平等的太空合作伙伴的一步？
答：这是一个信号，他们已经在炫耀性项目上投入了大量金钱，因为他们期待从这颗（宣称是气象）卫星上得到的实际服务，可以在明天通过一张信用卡来获得。有一定数量的提供商已经在供应这颗卫星预计会提供的信息，例如拍摄轨道图像，提供气象数据等。作为一个大约有2400万人口、经济处于现在这种状况的国家，朝鲜基本上无法负担这样大的一枚火箭。他们正在花费太多的金钱，用来获得他们可以轻易从其他地方得到的服务。因此，本次发射的原因一定在其他方面。他们也许希望向其他国家出售这些火箭。其他那些国家也许根本不会把它们用于和平目的。
原文地址：
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_ne ... -but-its-darn-close
NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close'
NBC太空专家评论朝鲜卫星发射：“这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。”
By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer
When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.
当我们了解到，朝鲜正在计划第一次向外国记者开放其严格保密的西海卫星发射场时，NBC新闻迅速决定，我们将需要一双专家的眼睛，来判断平壤宣布其最新一次火箭发射是出于和平的科学意图的准确性和可靠性。
North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.
朝鲜说，它正计划在四月中旬，使用三级火箭，发射一颗气象观测卫星，以纪念朝鲜创始人金日成百年诞辰。但是美国和韩国表示，这是一次弹道导弹的实验。
So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.
因此，NBC新闻邀请我们的“太空顾问”詹姆斯·奥伯格陪伴我们前往朝鲜，去观摩光明星1号卫星。
With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.
奥伯格作为太空工程师支持美国宇航局航天业务，职业生涯长达22年，他具有判断朝鲜对此次任务所宣布意图真实性的经验和技术专长。
NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.
在周日参观了西海卫星发射场以后，NBC记者与奥伯格坐在一起，以期获得他对这一设施本身、神秘的卫星，以及朝鲜太空计划未来发展的最初印象。
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Q. What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?
A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.
问：这次访问西海以后，您的第一印象是什么？
答：前往那里正是令人惊讶的，印象就是朝鲜政府中有人做出了一个非常大胆的决定：让我们去。
Q. Going into this, you said you had a couple of standards you were looking for in this satellite that would in your mind, settle whether it was real. What were they?
A: I expected the satellite to be in a clean room; a clean environment free of dust, smudges and things. I expected the satellite to probably be already mounted on the third stage [hardware that connects to the booster] and ready to move out to the launch pad. I expected the satellite to have a reasonable design; it should follow standard designs, like power and solar panels and so forth. I was really surprised by what we saw.
问：来到这里时，您说您在脑海中有几条标准，您在这颗卫星上面寻找这些标准，来决定它的真伪问题。是什么标准呢？
答：我预计这颗卫星是在干净的房间里，没有灰尘、污迹和杂物的干净环境。我预计这颗卫星可能已经完成了第三阶段安装（连接助推器的硬件）并且准备转移到发射台。我预计这颗卫星设计合理；它应该遵循标准的设计，如电源和太阳能电池板等等。我真的因为看到的东西而惊讶。
Q. So did this satellite pass muster?
A: The satellite did not meet the expectations I had. I have to ask myself whether these expectations may have been too narrow, but at the same time it raised questions in my mind as to how real what we were being shown was. We asked whether this was a mock-up; in fact, we kept on asking them again and again because they insisted this was a real satellite.
问：那么这颗卫星符合您的清单吗？
答：这颗卫星没有达到我的预计。我不得不问自己，这些预计是否可能过于狭窄，但是与此同时，我脑海里也提出了新的问题：我们面前展示的东西到底有多真实。我们问，这是不是一个模拟卫星；事实上，我们一遍又一遍地不断问他们，因为他们坚持说这是一颗真正的卫星。
The problem is the North Koreans didn’t just let us in [to the same room as the satellite], they let us get much too close. I could’ve walked three steps and poked it with my finger. But I didn’t want to put grease and smudges on the outside because it could lead the device to overheat in space or it could change a lot of things about the electro-static environment. So you need to protect the satellite from contamination – from touching, from people breathing on it, sneezing on it. And we were all coming in covered in dust after a long road trip. They didn’t protect the satellite from any of that.
问题是，朝鲜人不仅让我们（与这颗卫星）同处一室，他们让我们过于接近了。我可以向前走上三步，并用手指戳它。但是我不想把油脂和污迹留在它的外面，因为这些可能导致设备在外太空过热，或改变关于静电环境的很多东西。因此你需要保护卫星免受污染 -- 污染来自接触，来自人们在它上面的呼吸，还有打喷嚏。经过一段漫长的旅途，我们到来的每个人身上都布满灰尘。他们没有保护卫星，使它免受上面这些污染。
Maybe the satellite is built to be rugged; maybe they don’t care. We’ll find out if they launch it, if it works or not.
也许这颗卫星被造得很结实；也许他们不在乎。我们会发现是否他们发射了卫星，是否卫星在工作。
Q. Talk about your first impressions of the satellite. Was there anything surprising about the satellite to you?
A: I thought at first it was a model. I thought it was a symbolic representation. I couldn’t believe it was flight hardware. I couldn’t believe it was the one being launched in a few days.
问：谈谈您对卫星的第一印象。对您来说，这颗卫星有什么令人惊奇的地方吗？
答：我首先认为，它是个模型。我想它是个象征性的表示。我不敢相信它是可以飞行的装置。我不敢相信它是一个将在几天内发射的东西。
It’s certainly not a design I’ve seen much before. Right now, I’m curious about how the satellite was designed. I think perhaps they were worried we would be interested because until today they had not released a photograph or even a drawing of it. They kept its configurations a secret. Maybe it’s because they realized it was going to puzzle people.
这当然不是一个我在以前见过的设计。现在，我很好奇，到底这颗卫星是如何设计的。我想他们也许担心我们可能会感兴趣，因为直到今天，他们都没有公布有关它的一张照片甚至一幅画。他们对它的配置保密。可能这是因为，他们认识到这将会困扰人们。
Q. Talk about the significance of this launch. Why is it important?
A: This is a very significant launch because of the publicity on it. It’s going to be much harder to fake it if something does go wrong. But we should be prepared to accept a launch abort or a mission failure in a mature way, because that’s what happens to space powers when they start their program.
问：请说说本次发射的意义。为什么这很重要？
答：这是一次意义重大的发射，因为它的宣传效用。如果有什么事出问题了，想要弄虚作假就会更困难。但是，我们应该准备好，以自然而然的方式接受一次发射取消或任务失败，因为在太空大国开始他们的计划时，这是经常发生的。
The significance of the launch, of course, is the booster itself. The booster is bigger than it has to be. It’s based on Han missiles. It’s not a military missile … but it’s darn close. Like we’ve said on TV, this rocket is not a weapon, but it’s maybe 98 percent of one.
本次发射的意义，当然，它本身是一个助推器。这个助推器大于它应有的尺寸。它以汉式导弹为基础。这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。正如我们在电视上所说，这枚火箭不是武器，但是它也许是一件武器的98%。
It can be converted all too easily and all too frighteningly into a weapon, and they don’t need it. They don’t need a booster of this size, of this cost, to launch a satellite they say they want to. They seem to be overdoing it, and that can hurt a country, not help it.
它可以十分容易、十分令人恐惧地转化成为武器，而且他们并不需要它。他们不需要这种尺寸、这种价格的推进器，用来发射一颗他们自称想要发射的卫星。他们似乎做得太多了，这会伤害一个国家，而不是帮助它。
For example, the Russians were seriously involved in building similar projects like their own Buran space shuttle just to compete and show off to the West. And they contributed significantly to bankrupting their own intellectual potential and real budgets in the 1980s as [the Soviet Union] was grinding to a halt.
例如，俄罗斯人处心积虑地投入建造类似于暴风雪号航天飞机这样的项目，只是为了与西方竞争和炫耀。他们的做法显然导致了他们自己在1980年代的知识潜力与实际预算的损失，因此（苏联）逐渐停止了这个项目。
They didn’t go bankrupt because of the Buran project, but it did symbolize the wasteful spending that they were doing based on merely show-off projects. Those lessons should be taken to heart in a rational -- hypothetically rational -- North Korean regime.
他们没有因为暴风雪项目而破产，但是他们在仅仅为了炫耀的项目基础上所做的一切，确实象征着浪费性支出。这些教训，在一个理性的 -- 假设是理性的 -- 朝鲜政权里，应该被牢记在心。
Q: In your opinion, what are some of the problems the North Koreans face in launching this satellite?
A: The North Koreans face scheduling pressures as they have stated publicly already that they will launch it in time for a national holiday, and not just any holiday, one of the most profound national holidays in the country’s history [the 100th birthday of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung]. That kind of pressure has frequently led to disaster in other countries’ programs.
问：在您看来，对于发射这颗卫星，朝鲜人面对的问题有哪些呢？
答：朝鲜人面对着进度的压力，因为他们已经公开宣称，他们将在一个全国性的节日期间发射它。这个节日不同于其他节日，这是该国历史上最具重大意义的全国性节日之一（朝鲜开国领袖金日成的百年诞辰）。在其他国家的计划中，这种压力经常导致灾难。
So I think the odds of them actually successfully launching is a real toss-up. I wouldn’t want to put a number on it, but in my opinion it’s significantly in doubt that they’ll get this thing into orbit. And then, once it’s in orbit, I think it’s significantly in doubt that they can make it work. But they’re going to try, and they’ve chosen to do it in the full glare of publicity.
因此，我认为，他们实际成功发射的几率确实是难以确定。我不希望用一个数字来表示这种几率，但在我看来，他们能否把这颗卫星送进轨道，明显存在疑问。然后，当它进入轨道，我认为他们能否使它工作，明显存在疑问。但是他们要去尝试。他们选择在众多目光的关注下完成这件事。
But I think they need to be rewarded for making that decision. It doesn’t mean that we have to believe everything they have said, but we should at least pay some attention to it. It is a very dynamic situation because of the North Koreans' unprecedented openness. If we don’t want them to slam the door shut, we probably need to find some way of making it pay off for them.
但是我认为，他们做出这一决定，需要获得回报。这并不意味着我们必须相信他们所说的一切，但我们至少应该付出一定的关注。这是非常充满变数的情况，因为朝鲜表现出前所未有的公开性。如果我们不想让他们呯地一声关上大门，我们可能需要找到一些方法，使他们获得足够的报答。
Q. We only had limited access to the North Koreans’ launch control room, but can you give us your impressions of the area and its team?
A: As I’ve observed the control team, they were obviously set up in staged positions. The main thing I was impressed with was the familiarity of it from my own experience on our mission control. It really struck me as too elaborate and too authentic to be a fake. It felt real to me. The director’s presentation and answers felt real. They resonated with my own experiences, and so I have no doubt that they’re showing a genuine launch control center. To see this team there, it was a remarkable feeling of familiarity, even though I couldn’t understand them except through the interpreters.
问：我们仅仅有限度地接触了朝鲜的发射控制室，但是您能告诉我们对于这个地方及其团队的印象吗？
答：正如我观察到的控制团队，他们显然被安置在排练好的位置。我留下深刻印象的，主要是我在这个控制室的经历，与我在我们自己的任务控制中心的经历似曾相识。真正让我吃惊的，是它太复杂精密、太真实可信，而不像假的。它让我感到真实。主管的介绍和回答都让我感到真实。他们与我自己的经历产生了共鸣。因此我毫不怀疑，他们展示的是真正的发射控制中心。看到这个团队以后，我有一种明显的熟悉感，尽管我听不懂他们的话，除了通过口译员。
Q. If the launch is successful and the satellite deploys and accomplishes its mission, would that be a step toward North Korea becoming an equal partner in space?
A: It’s a sign they’ve put a lot of money on show-off projects because the actual services they expect to get from this [alleged weather] satellite can be obtained tomorrow with a credit card. There are a number of providers who already supply the information this satellite is supposed to provide like taking orbital pictures, providing weather data, etc. For a country of approximately 24 million in the economic state it’s in now, it basically can’t afford a rocket of this size. They are spending far too much money for a service they can easily obtain elsewhere. So the reasons for the launch must lie elsewhere. They probably want to sell these rockets to other countries. These other countries probably don’t want them for peaceful purposes either.
问：如果发射成功，卫星部署并完成了它的任务，这是否会成为朝鲜迈向平等的太空合作伙伴的一步？
答：这是一个信号，他们已经在炫耀性项目上投入了大量金钱，因为他们期待从这颗（宣称是气象）卫星上得到的实际服务，可以在明天通过一张信用卡来获得。有一定数量的提供商已经在供应这颗卫星预计会提供的信息，例如拍摄轨道图像，提供气象数据等。作为一个大约有2400万人口、经济处于现在这种状况的国家，朝鲜基本上无法负担这样大的一枚火箭。他们正在花费太多的金钱，用来获得他们可以轻易从其他地方得到的服务。因此，本次发射的原因一定在其他方面。他们也许希望向其他国家出售这些火箭。其他那些国家也许根本不会把它们用于和平目的。这是半年多以前，美国太空专家James Oberg参观朝鲜西海卫星发射场以后的访谈记录。朝鲜太空计划正在稳步推进，关于朝鲜准备发射的卫星和火箭与军事技术到底有多大关联，应该听听亲历者的意见。
原文地址：
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_ne ... -but-its-darn-close
NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close'
NBC太空专家评论朝鲜卫星发射：“这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。”
By Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer
When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.
当我们了解到，朝鲜正在计划第一次向外国记者开放其严格保密的西海卫星发射场时，NBC新闻迅速决定，我们将需要一双专家的眼睛，来判断平壤宣布其最新一次火箭发射是出于和平的科学意图的准确性和可靠性。
North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.
朝鲜说，它正计划在四月中旬，使用三级火箭，发射一颗气象观测卫星，以纪念朝鲜创始人金日成百年诞辰。但是美国和韩国表示，这是一次弹道导弹的实验。
So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.
因此，NBC新闻邀请我们的“太空顾问”詹姆斯·奥伯格陪伴我们前往朝鲜，去观摩光明星1号卫星。
With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.
奥伯格作为太空工程师支持美国宇航局航天业务，职业生涯长达22年，他具有判断朝鲜对此次任务所宣布意图真实性的经验和技术专长。
NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.
在周日参观了西海卫星发射场以后，NBC记者与奥伯格坐在一起，以期获得他对这一设施本身、神秘的卫星，以及朝鲜太空计划未来发展的最初印象。
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Q. What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?
A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.
问：这次访问西海以后，您的第一印象是什么？
答：前往那里正是令人惊讶的，印象就是朝鲜政府中有人做出了一个非常大胆的决定：让我们去。
Q. Going into this, you said you had a couple of standards you were looking for in this satellite that would in your mind, settle whether it was real. What were they?
A: I expected the satellite to be in a clean room; a clean environment free of dust, smudges and things. I expected the satellite to probably be already mounted on the third stage [hardware that connects to the booster] and ready to move out to the launch pad. I expected the satellite to have a reasonable design; it should follow standard designs, like power and solar panels and so forth. I was really surprised by what we saw.
问：来到这里时，您说您在脑海中有几条标准，您在这颗卫星上面寻找这些标准，来决定它的真伪问题。是什么标准呢？
答：我预计这颗卫星是在干净的房间里，没有灰尘、污迹和杂物的干净环境。我预计这颗卫星可能已经完成了第三阶段安装（连接助推器的硬件）并且准备转移到发射台。我预计这颗卫星设计合理；它应该遵循标准的设计，如电源和太阳能电池板等等。我真的因为看到的东西而惊讶。
Q. So did this satellite pass muster?
A: The satellite did not meet the expectations I had. I have to ask myself whether these expectations may have been too narrow, but at the same time it raised questions in my mind as to how real what we were being shown was. We asked whether this was a mock-up; in fact, we kept on asking them again and again because they insisted this was a real satellite.
问：那么这颗卫星符合您的清单吗？
答：这颗卫星没有达到我的预计。我不得不问自己，这些预计是否可能过于狭窄，但是与此同时，我脑海里也提出了新的问题：我们面前展示的东西到底有多真实。我们问，这是不是一个模拟卫星；事实上，我们一遍又一遍地不断问他们，因为他们坚持说这是一颗真正的卫星。
The problem is the North Koreans didn’t just let us in [to the same room as the satellite], they let us get much too close. I could’ve walked three steps and poked it with my finger. But I didn’t want to put grease and smudges on the outside because it could lead the device to overheat in space or it could change a lot of things about the electro-static environment. So you need to protect the satellite from contamination – from touching, from people breathing on it, sneezing on it. And we were all coming in covered in dust after a long road trip. They didn’t protect the satellite from any of that.
问题是，朝鲜人不仅让我们（与这颗卫星）同处一室，他们让我们过于接近了。我可以向前走上三步，并用手指戳它。但是我不想把油脂和污迹留在它的外面，因为这些可能导致设备在外太空过热，或改变关于静电环境的很多东西。因此你需要保护卫星免受污染 -- 污染来自接触，来自人们在它上面的呼吸，还有打喷嚏。经过一段漫长的旅途，我们到来的每个人身上都布满灰尘。他们没有保护卫星，使它免受上面这些污染。
Maybe the satellite is built to be rugged; maybe they don’t care. We’ll find out if they launch it, if it works or not.
也许这颗卫星被造得很结实；也许他们不在乎。我们会发现是否他们发射了卫星，是否卫星在工作。
Q. Talk about your first impressions of the satellite. Was there anything surprising about the satellite to you?
A: I thought at first it was a model. I thought it was a symbolic representation. I couldn’t believe it was flight hardware. I couldn’t believe it was the one being launched in a few days.
问：谈谈您对卫星的第一印象。对您来说，这颗卫星有什么令人惊奇的地方吗？
答：我首先认为，它是个模型。我想它是个象征性的表示。我不敢相信它是可以飞行的装置。我不敢相信它是一个将在几天内发射的东西。
It’s certainly not a design I’ve seen much before. Right now, I’m curious about how the satellite was designed. I think perhaps they were worried we would be interested because until today they had not released a photograph or even a drawing of it. They kept its configurations a secret. Maybe it’s because they realized it was going to puzzle people.
这当然不是一个我在以前见过的设计。现在，我很好奇，到底这颗卫星是如何设计的。我想他们也许担心我们可能会感兴趣，因为直到今天，他们都没有公布有关它的一张照片甚至一幅画。他们对它的配置保密。可能这是因为，他们认识到这将会困扰人们。
Q. Talk about the significance of this launch. Why is it important?
A: This is a very significant launch because of the publicity on it. It’s going to be much harder to fake it if something does go wrong. But we should be prepared to accept a launch abort or a mission failure in a mature way, because that’s what happens to space powers when they start their program.
问：请说说本次发射的意义。为什么这很重要？
答：这是一次意义重大的发射，因为它的宣传效用。如果有什么事出问题了，想要弄虚作假就会更困难。但是，我们应该准备好，以自然而然的方式接受一次发射取消或任务失败，因为在太空大国开始他们的计划时，这是经常发生的。
The significance of the launch, of course, is the booster itself. The booster is bigger than it has to be. It’s based on Han missiles. It’s not a military missile … but it’s darn close. Like we’ve said on TV, this rocket is not a weapon, but it’s maybe 98 percent of one.
本次发射的意义，当然，它本身是一个助推器。这个助推器大于它应有的尺寸。它以汉式导弹为基础。这不是军用导弹...但是它极为接近。正如我们在电视上所说，这枚火箭不是武器，但是它也许是一件武器的98%。
It can be converted all too easily and all too frighteningly into a weapon, and they don’t need it. They don’t need a booster of this size, of this cost, to launch a satellite they say they want to. They seem to be overdoing it, and that can hurt a country, not help it.
它可以十分容易、十分令人恐惧地转化成为武器，而且他们并不需要它。他们不需要这种尺寸、这种价格的推进器，用来发射一颗他们自称想要发射的卫星。他们似乎做得太多了，这会伤害一个国家，而不是帮助它。
For example, the Russians were seriously involved in building similar projects like their own Buran space shuttle just to compete and show off to the West. And they contributed significantly to bankrupting their own intellectual potential and real budgets in the 1980s as [the Soviet Union] was grinding to a halt.
例如，俄罗斯人处心积虑地投入建造类似于暴风雪号航天飞机这样的项目，只是为了与西方竞争和炫耀。他们的做法显然导致了他们自己在1980年代的知识潜力与实际预算的损失，因此（苏联）逐渐停止了这个项目。
They didn’t go bankrupt because of the Buran project, but it did symbolize the wasteful spending that they were doing based on merely show-off projects. Those lessons should be taken to heart in a rational -- hypothetically rational -- North Korean regime.
他们没有因为暴风雪项目而破产，但是他们在仅仅为了炫耀的项目基础上所做的一切，确实象征着浪费性支出。这些教训，在一个理性的 -- 假设是理性的 -- 朝鲜政权里，应该被牢记在心。
Q: In your opinion, what are some of the problems the North Koreans face in launching this satellite?
A: The North Koreans face scheduling pressures as they have stated publicly already that they will launch it in time for a national holiday, and not just any holiday, one of the most profound national holidays in the country’s history [the 100th birthday of North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung]. That kind of pressure has frequently led to disaster in other countries’ programs.
问：在您看来，对于发射这颗卫星，朝鲜人面对的问题有哪些呢？
答：朝鲜人面对着进度的压力，因为他们已经公开宣称，他们将在一个全国性的节日期间发射它。这个节日不同于其他节日，这是该国历史上最具重大意义的全国性节日之一（朝鲜开国领袖金日成的百年诞辰）。在其他国家的计划中，这种压力经常导致灾难。
So I think the odds of them actually successfully launching is a real toss-up. I wouldn’t want to put a number on it, but in my opinion it’s significantly in doubt that they’ll get this thing into orbit. And then, once it’s in orbit, I think it’s significantly in doubt that they can make it work. But they’re going to try, and they’ve chosen to do it in the full glare of publicity.
因此，我认为，他们实际成功发射的几率确实是难以确定。我不希望用一个数字来表示这种几率，但在我看来，他们能否把这颗卫星送进轨道，明显存在疑问。然后，当它进入轨道，我认为他们能否使它工作，明显存在疑问。但是他们要去尝试。他们选择在众多目光的关注下完成这件事。
But I think they need to be rewarded for making that decision. It doesn’t mean that we have to believe everything they have said, but we should at least pay some attention to it. It is a very dynamic situation because of the North Koreans' unprecedented openness. If we don’t want them to slam the door shut, we probably need to find some way of making it pay off for them.
但是我认为，他们做出这一决定，需要获得回报。这并不意味着我们必须相信他们所说的一切，但我们至少应该付出一定的关注。这是非常充满变数的情况，因为朝鲜表现出前所未有的公开性。如果我们不想让他们呯地一声关上大门，我们可能需要找到一些方法，使他们获得足够的报答。
Q. We only had limited access to the North Koreans’ launch control room, but can you give us your impressions of the area and its team?
A: As I’ve observed the control team, they were obviously set up in staged positions. The main thing I was impressed with was the familiarity of it from my own experience on our mission control. It really struck me as too elaborate and too authentic to be a fake. It felt real to me. The director’s presentation and answers felt real. They resonated with my own experiences, and so I have no doubt that they’re showing a genuine launch control center. To see this team there, it was a remarkable feeling of familiarity, even though I couldn’t understand them except through the interpreters.
问：我们仅仅有限度地接触了朝鲜的发射控制室，但是您能告诉我们对于这个地方及其团队的印象吗？
答：正如我观察到的控制团队，他们显然被安置在排练好的位置。我留下深刻印象的，主要是我在这个控制室的经历，与我在我们自己的任务控制中心的经历似曾相识。真正让我吃惊的，是它太复杂精密、太真实可信，而不像假的。它让我感到真实。主管的介绍和回答都让我感到真实。他们与我自己的经历产生了共鸣。因此我毫不怀疑，他们展示的是真正的发射控制中心。看到这个团队以后，我有一种明显的熟悉感，尽管我听不懂他们的话，除了通过口译员。
Q. If the launch is successful and the satellite deploys and accomplishes its mission, would that be a step toward North Korea becoming an equal partner in space?
A: It’s a sign they’ve put a lot of money on show-off projects because the actual services they expect to get from this [alleged weather] satellite can be obtained tomorrow with a credit card. There are a number of providers who already supply the information this satellite is supposed to provide like taking orbital pictures, providing weather data, etc. For a country of approximately 24 million in the economic state it’s in now, it basically can’t afford a rocket of this size. They are spending far too much money for a service they can easily obtain elsewhere. So the reasons for the launch must lie elsewhere. They probably want to sell these rockets to other countries. These other countries probably don’t want them for peaceful purposes either.
问：如果发射成功，卫星部署并完成了它的任务，这是否会成为朝鲜迈向平等的太空合作伙伴的一步？
答：这是一个信号，他们已经在炫耀性项目上投入了大量金钱，因为他们期待从这颗（宣称是气象）卫星上得到的实际服务，可以在明天通过一张信用卡来获得。有一定数量的提供商已经在供应这颗卫星预计会提供的信息，例如拍摄轨道图像，提供气象数据等。作为一个大约有2400万人口、经济处于现在这种状况的国家，朝鲜基本上无法负担这样大的一枚火箭。他们正在花费太多的金钱，用来获得他们可以轻易从其他地方得到的服务。因此，本次发射的原因一定在其他方面。他们也许希望向其他国家出售这些火箭。其他那些国家也许根本不会把它们用于和平目的。
美帝这不是废话吗 不就想拦截吗
那罗老号像什么？
赤裸裸的双重标准啊文明世界.去你妈的文明{:soso_e194:}