日本每年要向驻日美军交多少保护费？24楼更新——嘉手纳 ...

原创翻译，原文链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... kyos-transformation

翻译工兵终于成为《外交事务》的付费用户，自豪一下！
该双月刊在美国影响极大，有点像中国的《求是》或《半月谈》，几乎所有排得上号的政客与学者都在此刊发表过文章，我有空会翻译一些有意思的文章，希望大家喜欢美版八股文。

文章提要：美日同盟关系的重心是美国驻日军事基地，这层关系目前受到如下因素影响，变得日益复杂：日本国内政治风云变幻；日本财政问题；中美日韩互动。请结合阅读韩国济州岛军事基地风波一文http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1211080-1-1.html
且看日韩两国如何争相抱美国大腿，联手对付中国。

September/October 2011
2011年9/10月期

Tokyo's Transformation
日本的蜕变
How Japan Is Changing -- and What It Means for the United States
日本如何改变——对美国意味着什么？

The earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011, caused almost unimaginable damage and misery. In a surge of floodwater that lasted just two minutes, Japan lost nearly as many people as a proportion of its population as the United States did during the entire Vietnam War. The subsequent meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear reactors deepened the crisis.

2011年3月11日的地震和海啸给日本带来无尽的损失和伤痛。持续仅两分钟的滔天洪水毁去的日本人口比例与美国在整个越战中的损失相当。其后的福岛融堆更是为灾情雪上加霜。

But some see a silver lining to these dark tragedies. After 20 years of economic stagnation, the crisis could bring the Japanese together, catalyze much-needed reforms, and reverse decades of malaise. Many in the United States predict that the disaster will give a welcome boost to the U.S.-Japanese alliance. In an interview with Japan's national public television network on March 22, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proclaimed, "Our alliance, which was already strong and enduring, has become even more so." Indeed, the U.S. response to the disaster showcased its lasting commitment to Japan, as well as the unique logistical and material capabilities that the U.S. military forces stationed in the Pacific can provide. In what was dubbed Operation Tomodachi (Operation Friendship), the United States mobilized some 20,000 service members to assist with relief activities. It was the largest joint operation in the history of the alliance, and it generated widespread public support in both countries.

有些人认为这一系列灾难中亦有积极的一面。经过20年的停滞不前，本次危机将日本团结起来，推动了急需的改革，扫除数十年来的弊病。许多美国人预言这场灾难将推进美日同盟关系。3月22日，在接受日本全国公共电视网的采访时，美国国务卿希拉里克林顿宣称：＂我们本已坚定和悠久的盟友关系将更上一层楼。＂诚然，美国对日本灾难的反应展现了美国对日承诺以及太平洋美军的独有的后勤能力。在代号为＂友谊＂的行动中，美国动用二万兵力参与救援工作。这是同盟关系史上最大规模的联合行动，在两国都赢得了广泛的支持。

Despite the warmth of that the moment, however, deeper trends portend a far less certain future for the U.S.-Japanese relationship. Japan is undergoing profound changes aimed at empowering the political leadership at the expense of its historically preeminent bureaucracy. But rather than bringing about a clean transfer of institutional authority, the reforms have triggered battles among politicians and between politicians and bureaucrats, creating a power vacuum and undermining the government's ability to make policy. Complicating matters further are Japan's piecemeal policymaking institutions, a hypercompetitive media environment, and an increasingly dire fiscal outlook. The result has been uncertainty and gridlock, which are affecting alliance policymaking and are unlikely to disappear in the years ahead.

尽管当下火热，深层次的动向预示着今后不确定的美日双边关系。目前，日本正经历着赋予政治领导人更大权威的重大变革——相应地削减长期以来处于主导地位的办事官员的权力。但这项改革未能产生有序的权力移交，反而在政治领导人之间、政治领导与办事官员之间引起争斗，造成权力真空并损及政府制定政策的能力。此外，零敲碎打的决策机制、争先恐后的媒体以及越来越糟的财政前景等因素皆来搅局。由此产生的不确定性和僵局已影响到同盟决策，并极可能在未来几年里持续。

（译注：政治领导人指通过民选上台的政客，办事官员指各机关里多年媳妇熬成婆、不经选任的职业公务员。）

These hurdles will not cause a fundamental rift in the U.S.-Japanese alliance. But they will make it more complicated, which will require Washington to become more flexible and creative in its dealings with Tokyo.….
Safeguarding the U.S.-Japanese alliance must remain a top priority, but Washington should also be prepared to work more closely with other partners in the region.

这些困难不会造成美日同盟根本性的变化，但将使事情更加复杂，这将要求华盛顿在处理双边关系时变得更加灵活和富有创造力。
维护美日同盟关系仍是工作重心，但华盛顿应做好与该地区其它伙伴展开更紧密合作的准备。

BEYOND THE "1955 SYSTEM"

There is little question that Japan remains a linchpin of the United States' strategy in Asia. It is the United States' fourth-largest trading partner, behind Canada, Mexico, and China. Japan has cooperated with the United States in recent multilateral military efforts, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and in antipiracy activities in the Gulf of Aden, where Japan recently built a small military base. The country is a pillar of the United States' military presence in Asia, home to 66 U.S. military bases and 35,000 U.S. airmen, soldiers, sailors, and marines.

毫无疑问，日本仍是美国亚洲策略的关键。它是美国的第四大贸易伙伴，仅次于加拿大、墨西哥和中国。在近年的多国军事行动中日本曾协助美国，包括阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争和亚丁湾反海盗行动——日本最近在亚丁湾建立了一个小型军事基地。美国在亚洲建有66个军事基地、驻扎3万5千名军人，日本是这一军事存在的支柱之一。

Both countries have common interests in the stability of East Asia, freedom of navigation, deterring potential aggressors, and maintaining U.S. involvement in regional affairs. The security environment is evolving rapidly, and demands that both countries be more responsive are rising accordingly. In particular, the continued development of China's military capabilities will require adjustments. To cite but one example, the United States will need to protect its military installations in Japan and elsewhere in the region against increasingly accurate Chinese ballistic missiles. To do so, it will need to build hardened aircraft shelters, disperse its aircraft over a larger number of bases, and adjust its mix of fighter jets and support aircraft. In the years ahead, these adjustments may require revising long-standing basing agreements and operating practices.

美日两国在维护东亚稳定、保证自由通行权、威慑潜在敌手和维持美国参与该区域事务等方面拥有共同的利益。目前安全局势快速变化，相应地要求两国反应更为灵敏。特别地，由于中国军力的不断提升，两国都要进行调整。例如，要保护其位于日本与亚洲其它地区的军事设施不受中国日益精确的弹道导弹袭击，美国须修建坚固的飞机库、将机队疏散致众多的军事基地并调整战斗机和后援机的配置。在未来几年，要对长期以来的基地协定和行动守则进行修订。

Yet the flexibility necessary to update the alliance is currently in short supply in Japan. The Japanese system of governance remains in the middle of a profound and messy transition. Although these reforms -- opening up the political system and strengthening political control over the bureaucracy -- may ultimately improve Japan's policymaking process, in the meantime they have resulted in policy gridlock and confusion. 

但是如今的日本缺乏必需的灵活性，以促使同盟关系与时俱进。日本的政府机制仍处于重大且混乱的转型之中。虽然这些改革——开放政治体系并增强政治领导人对办事官员的控制——在长期看来可能会改进日本的决策过程，但目前它们产生了政治僵局和混乱。

接下来的几百字讲自民党兴衰、民选领导人物与职业办事官员的权力之争，略。

…the country remains hamstrung by ongoing fiscal and budgetary problems. Japan's public debt now amounts to 225 percent of GDP and by that measure is the highest in the world. And reconstruction after the earthquake is imposing additional demands on Japanese finances. The country's defense budgets have long been flat, and Japanese leaders have had to repeal social programs, raise taxes, and make substantial cuts to overseas development assistance as the country struggles to cope with the March 2011 disaster. Japan's stalled governance reform and intractable fiscal problems are also affecting the U.S.-Japanese alliance. The most obvious instance of that, although by no means the only one, concerns U.S. basing issues.

日本依然受到财政与预算问题的制约。该国的公共债务目前相当于GDP的225%，为全球最高，震后重建更是加重了财政负担。日本的军事预算经年未涨，在应对震灾的同时，社会项目被删，税负提高，海外援建被裁。日本的政改僵局和财政难题也已影响到美日同盟关系。最明显的例子当属美国驻日军队问题。


BASE WRANGLING

U.S. bases occupy about 19 percent of the land on the main island of Okinawa, in Japan's southernmost prefecture. They are also home to about half the U.S. military personnel in Japan, despite the fact that the island accounts for less than one percent of the country's landmass. The bases there have long been a point of contention between the United States and Japan because of their size, and because of the crime, noise, and safety risks associated with them. In 1995, the United States and Japan entered into negotiations to relocate some U.S. forces off Okinawa and reduce the bases' burden on local communities.

美军基地群占据冲绳岛面积的百分之十九。虽然该岛不及日本国土的百分之一，但美国驻日军人约有一半在此服役。由于占地面积、军人犯罪、噪音、安全因素等，美军冲绳基地一直是美日两国的争议焦点。1995年，美日展开旨在迁移部分基地、减少冲绳岛民负担的谈判。

The Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, in southern Okinawa, was a central part of the negotiations. Since 1945, when the base was built, the surrounding city of Ginowan had grown to the edge of Futenma's runway, and flights in and out of the base had been posing increasingly large accident risks and noise problems. Highlighting the urgency of the issue, in August 2004, a U.S. Marine Corps helicopter crashed and burned on the grounds of a local university. In 2006, the two sides finally agreed to close the runway at Futenma and open a new one at a base farther north on Okinawa. The move was just one part of a larger transformation designed to relocate some 8,000 U.S. marines from Japan to Guam with Japanese financial support.

位于冲绳岛南部的普天间海军陆战队航空基地是谈判的中心部分。自1945年建立以来，附近的Ginowan市扩建至该基地的跑道边缘，起降的飞机给周边带来越来越大的风险和噪音。2004年，美国海军陆战队的一架直升机在当地大学校园内坠毁燃烧，这起事故突显出问题的紧迫性。06年，双方终于同意关闭该基地跑道，在冲绳北部的另一基地新辟一条跑道。此举仅是美军利用日本财政支持、将约八千名士兵从日本转移至关岛的庞大计划的一部分。

Before the plan could be put into action, however, Japan's new politics intervened. Responding to popular sentiments that Tokyo had for too long played a subservient role in the alliance, the DPJ pledged in its 2009 election campaign to create a "more equal alliance" with the United States. Soon after becoming prime minister, the DPJ's Yukio Hatoyama reopened the Futenma negotiations, promising to move the base off Okinawa. To assert his leadership, Hatoyama reportedly excluded bureaucrats from the Foreign and Defense Ministries from taking part in the decision-making. He did not consult them before announcing that he was reopening the Futenma issue, and he barely conferred with them during the subsequent negotiations.

但在该计划得以实施之前，日本的政治就动向就进行了干预。为了响应不满东京在同盟关系中长期扮演从属角色的大众民意，日本民主党在09年竞选中承诺建立一个更平等的美日同盟。当选首相之后，民主党的鸠山由纪夫很快重启普天间基地谈判，誓将基地赶出冲绳。据传由纪夫为树立权威，将外交部与国防部的办事官员排除在决策过程之外。他在宣布重开谈判前未征求他们的意见，在接下来的谈判中也很少与他们会商。

With the bureaucracy sidelined, political infighting in Tokyo soon broke out, both within the three-party DPJ-led governing coalition and between the DPJ and the opposition LDP. By April 2010, when the United States made clear that it objected to renegotiating the deal (and then Chinese provocations gave him more pause), Hatoyama had realized that reopening the negotiations had been a mistake. But by the time he signaled his willingness to back down, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a member of the governing coalition, was adamant that the base be moved.

随着办事官员被搁置一旁，政客们的争斗迅速在东京爆发：民主党领导的三党执政联盟内斗、民主党与反对派自民党互斗。2010年4月，由于美国明确反对重开谈判加之中国的挑衅不断，首相由纪夫意识到重新谈判是一个错误。但当他示意让步时，执政联盟之一的社会民主党已扛起驱逐美军基地的大旗。

As Hatoyama wavered, the SDP's leader, Mizuho Fukushima, launched a one-woman political campaign against him. She visited Okinawa to seek the support of the prefecture's governor, Hirokazu Nakaima, against the agreement and lobbied tirelessly in the media for her position. In the end, when Hatoyama made an about-face and came out openly in support of a modified version of the original relocation plan, the SDP left the coalition. Three days later, in early June, Hatoyama announced his resignation. In the meantime, however, Fukushima's antibase campaign had raised hopes in Okinawa, and it had unwittingly proved that in the new political environment, a small party such as the SDP (which had only 12 members in parliament) could alter the dynamics of an important defense issue.

当由纪夫动摇时，社民党女党魁福岛瑞穗展开活动，单挑由纪夫。她访问冲绳以寻求冲绳县长的支持，并在媒体上无休止地造势。最后，当由纪夫掉头公开支持稍经修改的原有协议时，社民党离开了执政联盟。三天后，由纪夫宣布辞职。但社民党的造势运动已让冲绳岛民燃起了希望。这一过程在无意间说明了，在新的政治环境下，一个如同社民党的小党派也可影响防卫事务的大局。

…. Nakaima had originally supported the 2006 agreement, but the media spotlight that followed visits to Okinawa by Fukushima and Hatoyama, along with the tough antibase position taken by Nakaima's opponent in Okinawa's upcoming gubernatorial election, forced the governor's hand. He reversed course and came out against the agreement in September 2010. Underscoring the extent to which politics overshadowed strategy, Nakaima's announcement came in the middle of a mounting crisis with China over the disputed Senkaku Islands -- precisely a time when the deterrent value of U.S. troops in Japan should have been most apparent.

冲绳县长原本支持06年的美日协议，但因招架不住媒体舆论和岛内反对党，于2010年12月改变初衷，转而反对该协议。当时正值中日两国就钓鱼岛问题闹得沸沸扬扬，按理说正是最能体现驻日美军威慑力价值的时刻，冲绳县长选择这一时机倒戈，充分说明了政治斗争在多大程度上影响了战略格局。

The delay in the Futenma move also puts the broader 2006 basing agreement in jeopardy. As Gates said in February, "We really can't go forward on Guam . . . until we have clarity on what happens on Okinawa." Futenma is a harbinger of Japan's increasing unpredictability.

普天间跑道搬迁的推延还危及06年协议中的其它项目。正如今年二月美国国防部长盖茨所言：＂在冲绳局势明朗前，我们难以在关岛取得进展。＂普天间是日本愈发阴晴不定的凶兆。

THE PEOPLE'S BUDGET

A second major storm in the alliance is brewing, this one over Japan's financial support for U.S. forces in the country. Historically, the creation and approval of Japan's national budget were administrative functions, conducted by the Ministry of Finance. The process was largely invisible to the public. Starting in 2009, the DPJ dramatically increased the transparency of budgeting by introducing so-called budget review panels. The panels are made up of members of parliament and leaders from industry, the media, and academia -- few of whom are specialists in the budgetary matters they are being asked to assess. The panels' rules and procedures are largely improvised, and the proceedings are streamed live over the Internet, at times garnering hundreds of thousands of hits a day.

目前，美日同盟关系中的第二个风暴正蓄势待发，这一次涉及日本对美国驻军的财政支持。历史上，日本全国预算的制定和批准属于行政职能，由财政部负责，公众对此知之甚少。从09年开始，民主党引入预算审议委员会的机制，极大地提高了预算透明度。该委员会由国会议员和产业、媒体、学界领袖组成——鲜有预算事务专家。委员会的规则和程度大多是临时性的，审议过程网上直播，有时点击率可达每日数十万。

The panels have improved transparency, but they have also provided a platform for grandstanding in the media. Last year, Renho Murata, a politician and television personality, relentlessly questioned Japanese defense bureaucrats about their spending requirements and managed to force the Ministry of Defense to charge admission to army recruitment centers that house combat simulators and other "entertainment" designed to attract recruits. Of the 17 defense budget items reviewed by the panels in the last budget cycle, only one was passed as proposed. The days in which bureaucratic decisions would translate directly into military budgets and policy are long gone.

委员会虽然增进了透明度，但同时提供了一个在媒体上哗众取宠的平台。去年，政客与电视人物村田莲舫毫不留情地质疑日本国防官员的预算请求，并迫使国防部在征兵中心收取入场费——这些中心装备有战斗模拟器及其它＂娱乐设施＂以吸引新兵。在上一预算年度，该委员会审议的17项国防预算中，只有一项原封不动地获得通过。过去办事官员的决定直接转换成军事预算的日子一去不复返。

During the public budget debates in the spring of 2011, the issue of financial support for U.S. forces in Japan, which Japan has been paying since the 1978, became something of a political lightning rod. In 2010, Tokyo provided $3.3 billion to Washington for everything from utilities on U.S. bases to the construction of new facilities on Guam. Some of this money also pays for amenities such as bowling alleys and snack bars, which have become associated with U.S. extravagance. The majority of these funds fall under the category of "host-nation support," although most Japanese derisively refer to them as "the sympathy budget." When the United States requested that Japan raise its level of host-nation support during bilateral discussions this January, Japanese defense officials responded with an unusually public rebuttal. Their comments suggested an increasingly zero-sum view of support for the United States, on the one hand, and for Japan's own military requirements, on the other.

2011年春的公开预算辩论中，日本对美国驻军的财政支持成为众矢之的——尽管日本自1978年以来一直承担这一费用。2010年，东京向华盛顿支付了33亿美元，用于从美军基地水电到关岛新设施的一应开销。一部分资金还用于支付保龄球道和零食等福利——这项开支被与美国的奢侈浪费联系起来。这些资金的大部分属于＂东道国支持＂，尽管多数日本人斥之为＂怜悯预算＂。今年一月份，美国在双边会谈时提出增加东道国支持，日本国防官员罕见地公开表示反对。日方的言论暗示着日本逐渐对驻日美军开支与本国军队开支采取零和游戏的态度。（译注：美日两军此长彼消，总开支是固定的，一方多吃，另一方就得少吃。）

The debate over Japan's host-nation support was brought to an abrupt close after a Chinese fishing trawler crashed into a Japanese coast guard vessel in September 2010. Following the arrest and detention of the fishermen, the incident escalated into a major diplomatic row with China. As anger toward Beijing grew, Japanese public opinion tipped back in favor of the United States. Early this year, Tokyo agreed to maintain fiscal support for U.S. bases at the 2010 level. Nevertheless, many Japanese government and media sources have indicated that without the crisis with China, financial support would almost certainly have been cut substantially.

2010年9月中国渔船撞击日本海岸卫队船只后，围绕日本＂东道国支持＂的争论嘎然而止。中国渔民被逮捕和拘留之后，该事件演化成中日两国重大外交争端。日本群情激愤，民意重新倒向美方。今年早些时候，东京同意维持2010年度的财政支持水平。许多日本政界、媒体人士认为，若非与中国交恶，今年的财政支持几乎铁定会被大幅削减。

未完待续

原创翻译，原文链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... kyos-transformation

翻译工兵终于成为《外交事务》的付费用户，自豪一下！
该双月刊在美国影响极大，有点像中国的《求是》或《半月谈》，几乎所有排得上号的政客与学者都在此刊发表过文章，我有空会翻译一些有意思的文章，希望大家喜欢美版八股文。

文章提要：美日同盟关系的重心是美国驻日军事基地，这层关系目前受到如下因素影响，变得日益复杂：日本国内政治风云变幻；日本财政问题；中美日韩互动。请结合阅读韩国济州岛军事基地风波一文http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1211080-1-1.html
且看日韩两国如何争相抱美国大腿，联手对付中国。

September/October 2011
2011年9/10月期

Tokyo's Transformation
日本的蜕变
How Japan Is Changing -- and What It Means for the United States
日本如何改变——对美国意味着什么？

The earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011, caused almost unimaginable damage and misery. In a surge of floodwater that lasted just two minutes, Japan lost nearly as many people as a proportion of its population as the United States did during the entire Vietnam War. The subsequent meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear reactors deepened the crisis.

2011年3月11日的地震和海啸给日本带来无尽的损失和伤痛。持续仅两分钟的滔天洪水毁去的日本人口比例与美国在整个越战中的损失相当。其后的福岛融堆更是为灾情雪上加霜。

But some see a silver lining to these dark tragedies. After 20 years of economic stagnation, the crisis could bring the Japanese together, catalyze much-needed reforms, and reverse decades of malaise. Many in the United States predict that the disaster will give a welcome boost to the U.S.-Japanese alliance. In an interview with Japan's national public television network on March 22, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proclaimed, "Our alliance, which was already strong and enduring, has become even more so." Indeed, the U.S. response to the disaster showcased its lasting commitment to Japan, as well as the unique logistical and material capabilities that the U.S. military forces stationed in the Pacific can provide. In what was dubbed Operation Tomodachi (Operation Friendship), the United States mobilized some 20,000 service members to assist with relief activities. It was the largest joint operation in the history of the alliance, and it generated widespread public support in both countries.

有些人认为这一系列灾难中亦有积极的一面。经过20年的停滞不前，本次危机将日本团结起来，推动了急需的改革，扫除数十年来的弊病。许多美国人预言这场灾难将推进美日同盟关系。3月22日，在接受日本全国公共电视网的采访时，美国国务卿希拉里克林顿宣称：＂我们本已坚定和悠久的盟友关系将更上一层楼。＂诚然，美国对日本灾难的反应展现了美国对日承诺以及太平洋美军的独有的后勤能力。在代号为＂友谊＂的行动中，美国动用二万兵力参与救援工作。这是同盟关系史上最大规模的联合行动，在两国都赢得了广泛的支持。

Despite the warmth of that the moment, however, deeper trends portend a far less certain future for the U.S.-Japanese relationship. Japan is undergoing profound changes aimed at empowering the political leadership at the expense of its historically preeminent bureaucracy. But rather than bringing about a clean transfer of institutional authority, the reforms have triggered battles among politicians and between politicians and bureaucrats, creating a power vacuum and undermining the government's ability to make policy. Complicating matters further are Japan's piecemeal policymaking institutions, a hypercompetitive media environment, and an increasingly dire fiscal outlook. The result has been uncertainty and gridlock, which are affecting alliance policymaking and are unlikely to disappear in the years ahead.

尽管当下火热，深层次的动向预示着今后不确定的美日双边关系。目前，日本正经历着赋予政治领导人更大权威的重大变革——相应地削减长期以来处于主导地位的办事官员的权力。但这项改革未能产生有序的权力移交，反而在政治领导人之间、政治领导与办事官员之间引起争斗，造成权力真空并损及政府制定政策的能力。此外，零敲碎打的决策机制、争先恐后的媒体以及越来越糟的财政前景等因素皆来搅局。由此产生的不确定性和僵局已影响到同盟决策，并极可能在未来几年里持续。

（译注：政治领导人指通过民选上台的政客，办事官员指各机关里多年媳妇熬成婆、不经选任的职业公务员。）

These hurdles will not cause a fundamental rift in the U.S.-Japanese alliance. But they will make it more complicated, which will require Washington to become more flexible and creative in its dealings with Tokyo.….
Safeguarding the U.S.-Japanese alliance must remain a top priority, but Washington should also be prepared to work more closely with other partners in the region.

这些困难不会造成美日同盟根本性的变化，但将使事情更加复杂，这将要求华盛顿在处理双边关系时变得更加灵活和富有创造力。
维护美日同盟关系仍是工作重心，但华盛顿应做好与该地区其它伙伴展开更紧密合作的准备。

BEYOND THE "1955 SYSTEM"

There is little question that Japan remains a linchpin of the United States' strategy in Asia. It is the United States' fourth-largest trading partner, behind Canada, Mexico, and China. Japan has cooperated with the United States in recent multilateral military efforts, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and in antipiracy activities in the Gulf of Aden, where Japan recently built a small military base. The country is a pillar of the United States' military presence in Asia, home to 66 U.S. military bases and 35,000 U.S. airmen, soldiers, sailors, and marines.

毫无疑问，日本仍是美国亚洲策略的关键。它是美国的第四大贸易伙伴，仅次于加拿大、墨西哥和中国。在近年的多国军事行动中日本曾协助美国，包括阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争和亚丁湾反海盗行动——日本最近在亚丁湾建立了一个小型军事基地。美国在亚洲建有66个军事基地、驻扎3万5千名军人，日本是这一军事存在的支柱之一。

Both countries have common interests in the stability of East Asia, freedom of navigation, deterring potential aggressors, and maintaining U.S. involvement in regional affairs. The security environment is evolving rapidly, and demands that both countries be more responsive are rising accordingly. In particular, the continued development of China's military capabilities will require adjustments. To cite but one example, the United States will need to protect its military installations in Japan and elsewhere in the region against increasingly accurate Chinese ballistic missiles. To do so, it will need to build hardened aircraft shelters, disperse its aircraft over a larger number of bases, and adjust its mix of fighter jets and support aircraft. In the years ahead, these adjustments may require revising long-standing basing agreements and operating practices.

美日两国在维护东亚稳定、保证自由通行权、威慑潜在敌手和维持美国参与该区域事务等方面拥有共同的利益。目前安全局势快速变化，相应地要求两国反应更为灵敏。特别地，由于中国军力的不断提升，两国都要进行调整。例如，要保护其位于日本与亚洲其它地区的军事设施不受中国日益精确的弹道导弹袭击，美国须修建坚固的飞机库、将机队疏散致众多的军事基地并调整战斗机和后援机的配置。在未来几年，要对长期以来的基地协定和行动守则进行修订。

Yet the flexibility necessary to update the alliance is currently in short supply in Japan. The Japanese system of governance remains in the middle of a profound and messy transition. Although these reforms -- opening up the political system and strengthening political control over the bureaucracy -- may ultimately improve Japan's policymaking process, in the meantime they have resulted in policy gridlock and confusion. 

但是如今的日本缺乏必需的灵活性，以促使同盟关系与时俱进。日本的政府机制仍处于重大且混乱的转型之中。虽然这些改革——开放政治体系并增强政治领导人对办事官员的控制——在长期看来可能会改进日本的决策过程，但目前它们产生了政治僵局和混乱。

接下来的几百字讲自民党兴衰、民选领导人物与职业办事官员的权力之争，略。

…the country remains hamstrung by ongoing fiscal and budgetary problems. Japan's public debt now amounts to 225 percent of GDP and by that measure is the highest in the world. And reconstruction after the earthquake is imposing additional demands on Japanese finances. The country's defense budgets have long been flat, and Japanese leaders have had to repeal social programs, raise taxes, and make substantial cuts to overseas development assistance as the country struggles to cope with the March 2011 disaster. Japan's stalled governance reform and intractable fiscal problems are also affecting the U.S.-Japanese alliance. The most obvious instance of that, although by no means the only one, concerns U.S. basing issues.

日本依然受到财政与预算问题的制约。该国的公共债务目前相当于GDP的225%，为全球最高，震后重建更是加重了财政负担。日本的军事预算经年未涨，在应对震灾的同时，社会项目被删，税负提高，海外援建被裁。日本的政改僵局和财政难题也已影响到美日同盟关系。最明显的例子当属美国驻日军队问题。


BASE WRANGLING

U.S. bases occupy about 19 percent of the land on the main island of Okinawa, in Japan's southernmost prefecture. They are also home to about half the U.S. military personnel in Japan, despite the fact that the island accounts for less than one percent of the country's landmass. The bases there have long been a point of contention between the United States and Japan because of their size, and because of the crime, noise, and safety risks associated with them. In 1995, the United States and Japan entered into negotiations to relocate some U.S. forces off Okinawa and reduce the bases' burden on local communities.

美军基地群占据冲绳岛面积的百分之十九。虽然该岛不及日本国土的百分之一，但美国驻日军人约有一半在此服役。由于占地面积、军人犯罪、噪音、安全因素等，美军冲绳基地一直是美日两国的争议焦点。1995年，美日展开旨在迁移部分基地、减少冲绳岛民负担的谈判。

The Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, in southern Okinawa, was a central part of the negotiations. Since 1945, when the base was built, the surrounding city of Ginowan had grown to the edge of Futenma's runway, and flights in and out of the base had been posing increasingly large accident risks and noise problems. Highlighting the urgency of the issue, in August 2004, a U.S. Marine Corps helicopter crashed and burned on the grounds of a local university. In 2006, the two sides finally agreed to close the runway at Futenma and open a new one at a base farther north on Okinawa. The move was just one part of a larger transformation designed to relocate some 8,000 U.S. marines from Japan to Guam with Japanese financial support.

位于冲绳岛南部的普天间海军陆战队航空基地是谈判的中心部分。自1945年建立以来，附近的Ginowan市扩建至该基地的跑道边缘，起降的飞机给周边带来越来越大的风险和噪音。2004年，美国海军陆战队的一架直升机在当地大学校园内坠毁燃烧，这起事故突显出问题的紧迫性。06年，双方终于同意关闭该基地跑道，在冲绳北部的另一基地新辟一条跑道。此举仅是美军利用日本财政支持、将约八千名士兵从日本转移至关岛的庞大计划的一部分。

Before the plan could be put into action, however, Japan's new politics intervened. Responding to popular sentiments that Tokyo had for too long played a subservient role in the alliance, the DPJ pledged in its 2009 election campaign to create a "more equal alliance" with the United States. Soon after becoming prime minister, the DPJ's Yukio Hatoyama reopened the Futenma negotiations, promising to move the base off Okinawa. To assert his leadership, Hatoyama reportedly excluded bureaucrats from the Foreign and Defense Ministries from taking part in the decision-making. He did not consult them before announcing that he was reopening the Futenma issue, and he barely conferred with them during the subsequent negotiations.

但在该计划得以实施之前，日本的政治就动向就进行了干预。为了响应不满东京在同盟关系中长期扮演从属角色的大众民意，日本民主党在09年竞选中承诺建立一个更平等的美日同盟。当选首相之后，民主党的鸠山由纪夫很快重启普天间基地谈判，誓将基地赶出冲绳。据传由纪夫为树立权威，将外交部与国防部的办事官员排除在决策过程之外。他在宣布重开谈判前未征求他们的意见，在接下来的谈判中也很少与他们会商。

With the bureaucracy sidelined, political infighting in Tokyo soon broke out, both within the three-party DPJ-led governing coalition and between the DPJ and the opposition LDP. By April 2010, when the United States made clear that it objected to renegotiating the deal (and then Chinese provocations gave him more pause), Hatoyama had realized that reopening the negotiations had been a mistake. But by the time he signaled his willingness to back down, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a member of the governing coalition, was adamant that the base be moved.

随着办事官员被搁置一旁，政客们的争斗迅速在东京爆发：民主党领导的三党执政联盟内斗、民主党与反对派自民党互斗。2010年4月，由于美国明确反对重开谈判加之中国的挑衅不断，首相由纪夫意识到重新谈判是一个错误。但当他示意让步时，执政联盟之一的社会民主党已扛起驱逐美军基地的大旗。

As Hatoyama wavered, the SDP's leader, Mizuho Fukushima, launched a one-woman political campaign against him. She visited Okinawa to seek the support of the prefecture's governor, Hirokazu Nakaima, against the agreement and lobbied tirelessly in the media for her position. In the end, when Hatoyama made an about-face and came out openly in support of a modified version of the original relocation plan, the SDP left the coalition. Three days later, in early June, Hatoyama announced his resignation. In the meantime, however, Fukushima's antibase campaign had raised hopes in Okinawa, and it had unwittingly proved that in the new political environment, a small party such as the SDP (which had only 12 members in parliament) could alter the dynamics of an important defense issue.

当由纪夫动摇时，社民党女党魁福岛瑞穗展开活动，单挑由纪夫。她访问冲绳以寻求冲绳县长的支持，并在媒体上无休止地造势。最后，当由纪夫掉头公开支持稍经修改的原有协议时，社民党离开了执政联盟。三天后，由纪夫宣布辞职。但社民党的造势运动已让冲绳岛民燃起了希望。这一过程在无意间说明了，在新的政治环境下，一个如同社民党的小党派也可影响防卫事务的大局。

…. Nakaima had originally supported the 2006 agreement, but the media spotlight that followed visits to Okinawa by Fukushima and Hatoyama, along with the tough antibase position taken by Nakaima's opponent in Okinawa's upcoming gubernatorial election, forced the governor's hand. He reversed course and came out against the agreement in September 2010. Underscoring the extent to which politics overshadowed strategy, Nakaima's announcement came in the middle of a mounting crisis with China over the disputed Senkaku Islands -- precisely a time when the deterrent value of U.S. troops in Japan should have been most apparent.

冲绳县长原本支持06年的美日协议，但因招架不住媒体舆论和岛内反对党，于2010年12月改变初衷，转而反对该协议。当时正值中日两国就钓鱼岛问题闹得沸沸扬扬，按理说正是最能体现驻日美军威慑力价值的时刻，冲绳县长选择这一时机倒戈，充分说明了政治斗争在多大程度上影响了战略格局。

The delay in the Futenma move also puts the broader 2006 basing agreement in jeopardy. As Gates said in February, "We really can't go forward on Guam . . . until we have clarity on what happens on Okinawa." Futenma is a harbinger of Japan's increasing unpredictability.

普天间跑道搬迁的推延还危及06年协议中的其它项目。正如今年二月美国国防部长盖茨所言：＂在冲绳局势明朗前，我们难以在关岛取得进展。＂普天间是日本愈发阴晴不定的凶兆。

THE PEOPLE'S BUDGET

A second major storm in the alliance is brewing, this one over Japan's financial support for U.S. forces in the country. Historically, the creation and approval of Japan's national budget were administrative functions, conducted by the Ministry of Finance. The process was largely invisible to the public. Starting in 2009, the DPJ dramatically increased the transparency of budgeting by introducing so-called budget review panels. The panels are made up of members of parliament and leaders from industry, the media, and academia -- few of whom are specialists in the budgetary matters they are being asked to assess. The panels' rules and procedures are largely improvised, and the proceedings are streamed live over the Internet, at times garnering hundreds of thousands of hits a day.

目前，美日同盟关系中的第二个风暴正蓄势待发，这一次涉及日本对美国驻军的财政支持。历史上，日本全国预算的制定和批准属于行政职能，由财政部负责，公众对此知之甚少。从09年开始，民主党引入预算审议委员会的机制，极大地提高了预算透明度。该委员会由国会议员和产业、媒体、学界领袖组成——鲜有预算事务专家。委员会的规则和程度大多是临时性的，审议过程网上直播，有时点击率可达每日数十万。

The panels have improved transparency, but they have also provided a platform for grandstanding in the media. Last year, Renho Murata, a politician and television personality, relentlessly questioned Japanese defense bureaucrats about their spending requirements and managed to force the Ministry of Defense to charge admission to army recruitment centers that house combat simulators and other "entertainment" designed to attract recruits. Of the 17 defense budget items reviewed by the panels in the last budget cycle, only one was passed as proposed. The days in which bureaucratic decisions would translate directly into military budgets and policy are long gone.

委员会虽然增进了透明度，但同时提供了一个在媒体上哗众取宠的平台。去年，政客与电视人物村田莲舫毫不留情地质疑日本国防官员的预算请求，并迫使国防部在征兵中心收取入场费——这些中心装备有战斗模拟器及其它＂娱乐设施＂以吸引新兵。在上一预算年度，该委员会审议的17项国防预算中，只有一项原封不动地获得通过。过去办事官员的决定直接转换成军事预算的日子一去不复返。

During the public budget debates in the spring of 2011, the issue of financial support for U.S. forces in Japan, which Japan has been paying since the 1978, became something of a political lightning rod. In 2010, Tokyo provided $3.3 billion to Washington for everything from utilities on U.S. bases to the construction of new facilities on Guam. Some of this money also pays for amenities such as bowling alleys and snack bars, which have become associated with U.S. extravagance. The majority of these funds fall under the category of "host-nation support," although most Japanese derisively refer to them as "the sympathy budget." When the United States requested that Japan raise its level of host-nation support during bilateral discussions this January, Japanese defense officials responded with an unusually public rebuttal. Their comments suggested an increasingly zero-sum view of support for the United States, on the one hand, and for Japan's own military requirements, on the other.

2011年春的公开预算辩论中，日本对美国驻军的财政支持成为众矢之的——尽管日本自1978年以来一直承担这一费用。2010年，东京向华盛顿支付了33亿美元，用于从美军基地水电到关岛新设施的一应开销。一部分资金还用于支付保龄球道和零食等福利——这项开支被与美国的奢侈浪费联系起来。这些资金的大部分属于＂东道国支持＂，尽管多数日本人斥之为＂怜悯预算＂。今年一月份，美国在双边会谈时提出增加东道国支持，日本国防官员罕见地公开表示反对。日方的言论暗示着日本逐渐对驻日美军开支与本国军队开支采取零和游戏的态度。（译注：美日两军此长彼消，总开支是固定的，一方多吃，另一方就得少吃。）

The debate over Japan's host-nation support was brought to an abrupt close after a Chinese fishing trawler crashed into a Japanese coast guard vessel in September 2010. Following the arrest and detention of the fishermen, the incident escalated into a major diplomatic row with China. As anger toward Beijing grew, Japanese public opinion tipped back in favor of the United States. Early this year, Tokyo agreed to maintain fiscal support for U.S. bases at the 2010 level. Nevertheless, many Japanese government and media sources have indicated that without the crisis with China, financial support would almost certainly have been cut substantially.

2010年9月中国渔船撞击日本海岸卫队船只后，围绕日本＂东道国支持＂的争论嘎然而止。中国渔民被逮捕和拘留之后，该事件演化成中日两国重大外交争端。日本群情激愤，民意重新倒向美方。今年早些时候，东京同意维持2010年度的财政支持水平。许多日本政界、媒体人士认为，若非与中国交恶，今年的财政支持几乎铁定会被大幅削减。

未完待续