超级军网中文标题:三万亿大款，伤不起啊 (转帖）
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 15:22:35
中文标题:三万亿大款，伤不起啊 原文标题:Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
译文信息
发布人:solar115 协作:康康Tainy 发布日期：2011-05-14 17:56:34 原文国家:英国 阅读:5390 评论:37条
来源:
来源连接:http://www.economist.com/node/18560525
导读: 都说人怕出名猪怕壮，不怕贼偷就怕贼惦记。世界看中国是不是就好像在看着一只大如火星的烤乳猪……
前言：中国的外汇是个世界性蛋糕+世界级难题；三万亿大款，你伤不起啊。有国内砖家说，中国的外汇因为升值损失了2711亿美元。而在国外，盯着中国这笔钱的眼睛，不说多如牛毛，起码也多如兔毛，不妨看看《经济学人》的国外砖家们流着口水说要怎么花这笔钱。《经济学人》的读者评论一向是亮点，我们按推荐数排序，翻译了第一页所有评论，后面的评论推荐数只有个位数的就不翻译了。
特别感谢康康Tainy的合作翻译。黑色是原文，蓝色是译文，红色是注释。有翻译不当的地方，Solar先道歉了，还请各位指点。
China's foreign reserves
Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
Window-shopping with China’s central bank
中国的外汇储备
谁想过把万亿大款的瘾？
那就陪着中国央行来次扫街吧?
【window-shopping：只看不买的逛街】
图：梦幻血拼：
今年石油的总产量 3.41万亿美元；
美国农田1.87万亿；
“笨猪”四国*主权债务：1.51万亿美元；
货币黄金**：1.43万亿美元；
苹果微软IBM和古狗：9160亿美元；
美国军事装备：4140亿美元；
曼哈顿不动产：2870亿美元；
华盛顿不动产：2320亿美元；
50支最贵的运动俱乐部：500亿美元
【*笨猪四国：葡萄牙(Portugal)、意大利(Italy)、希腊(Greece)、西班牙(Spain)四国英文首字母接成一个词，正好是“PIGS”(群猪)，于是，将陷入债务危机中这四个国家称为“笨猪四国”，如果加上爱尔兰（Ireland）就是PIIGS，笨猪五国。
**货币黄金是一国货币当局所持有的货币性黄金。货币性黄金的交易仅在不同国家的货币当局之间或货币当局与国际货币基金组织之间进行。】
BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.
截止去年年底，中国的外汇储备已经有2.85万亿美元了。虽然中国在今年第一季度很稀罕地入超了，但4月14日中国央行发布的最新数据显示他们的外汇储备在3月底已经飙过了3万亿美元。
China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.
中国的央行有的是钱，但没啥想象力。它的外汇储备里，划了巨大的一块投在无聊的美国国债上。这意味着它可以指望着把自己美元捞回来。但是，如果美国败给了通胀或者贬值，那中国就要为这些美元能值多少而头疼了。
So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.
那么，中国拿着这笔钱还能干嘛？抛去美元，中国也许会迷恋上欧元。中国可以一气买下西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊四国所有未偿还的主权债券，瞬间解决欧元区的债务危机*。而且中国仍然还能剩余近一半的储备在手。
【译者注：欧元区债务危机：2009年12月，全球三大评级公司标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级，此后欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机，“欧猪五国 PIIGS”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)的信用评级被调低，经济下滑，债台高筑，整个欧洲面临严峻考验。2010年5月10日，欧盟27国财长被迫决定设立总额为7500亿欧元的救助机制，帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国，防止危机继续蔓延。危机至今还在困扰着欧洲。】
It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.
中国也可以换个方向，选择抛开所有债券去炒股。中国可以用不到一万亿美元一口吞下苹果、微软、IBM和古狗*。它也可以学学中东油霸和俄国寡头买买英超俱乐部**。根据《福布斯》***杂志，去年全球价值最高的前50个运动俱乐部总值504亿美元，还不到中国外汇储备的2% .
【译者注：*苹果Apple，4月20日市值3154.5亿美元；微软Microsoft，4月20日市值2164.5亿美元；IBM，4月20日市值2009.2亿美元；古狗Google4月20日市值1690.3亿美元。四家公司总市值是9018.5亿美元。
**俄罗斯富豪阿布拉莫维奇在2003年买下英超切尔西俱乐部，至今总投入超过4.5亿英镑；阿布扎比联合集团2008年买下英超曼城俱乐部，至今总投入超过5.7亿英镑。
***《福布斯》Forbes为双周刊杂志，每期刊登60多篇对公司和公司经营者的评论性文章，被誉为“美国经济的晴雨表”。】
Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?
国际富豪们还青睐于投资在不动产上。也许中国应该买下一些曼哈顿的尊贵房产。诶，干嘛不买下整个曼哈顿呢？按照纽约市政府的说法，整个岛可征税的房产总之也就仅仅2870亿美元而已。而华盛顿特区的房产只值区区2320亿美元。中国已经习惯当华盛顿*的债主了，何不干脆直接当地主算了？
【*华盛顿，此处双关，指美国。前面的华盛顿特区Washington, D.C是首都，总面积177平方公里。】
China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.
中国也可以减轻他们对能源、食物和军事安全的焦虑。三万亿美元可以买下今年全球石油总供应量的88% .在美国大陆买下所有农田（包括农场建筑）仅仅需要1.86万亿美元（2009年的价格）。而中国理论上可以买下美国的整个国防部，根据国防部的2010年资产报表，它的财产总值是1.9万亿美元。而且这个数据中很大部分还是土地、建筑物和投资所值；那些枪啊炮啊坦克啊啥啥的军事装备其实只值4137亿美元罢了。
These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.
以上这些琐细无厘头的计算，反映了中国外汇储备规模之巨大，但同时也说明了中国在投资多样化时所面对的巨大困难。任何一项购置交易，只要规模大到足以确保得到中国的关注，就也会引发市场为之而动荡。中国可以报价买下几乎任何东西——但想用现价那基本上什么也买不到。
评论翻译
reconst wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:12 GMT
China should buy The Economist.
中国就该买下经济学人。
Recommend (195)PermalinkReport abuse 【推荐数195，下同】
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ghaliban wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:10 GMT
"China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice"
I know you're only trying to illustrate the scale of the numbers involved light-heartedly, but just to note that China buying the outstanding debt of the PIGS will not solve their debt crisis. It would only change the identity of their creditors.
“中国可以买下所有西班牙，爱尔兰，葡萄牙还有希腊未偿还的主权债券。立即解决欧元区的债务危机。”
我想你只是在说明了（中国外汇）数量有多大，但是还是要注意即使中国购买了欧猪四国的未偿还债务，欧猪的危机还是没解决。只不过债务的债权人更换了而已。
Recommend (68)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yongke wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:05 GMT
Even the Chinese (me included) realise that at this point, forex are just numbers on papers. I don't think the Chinese government want to lend to the US anymore than the US want to borrow from China. Yet it is necessary to current keep the economy going.
So there is no need to preach, everyone (including the Chinese) are already on the same page. You just have to be patient while it is being fixed.
即使是中国人（包括我自己）也明白外汇只是纸上的数字而已。我认为与美国想向中国借钱的意愿相比中国不政府不是那么愿意把钱借给美国。但是保持现在的经济增长还是必要的。
所以啊不用宣讲了。每个人（包括中国人）都已经在这个问题（指外汇）上达成共识，你们只是不得不耐心等待一切好转。
Also, certain options are not acceptable so it's pointless to demand them. Specifically I am talking about a large one-time re-eva luation of the Chinese Yuan.
Also also, may I point out to other readers that the Chinese holding on US debt is less than 5% of the entire US debt holdings. So even if the US default on China's loans, it will not solve their problem.
还有，如果有的要求是不能被接受的就用不着再提出这种要求了。我说的就是一次性大幅重估人民币。
另外，我要向其他读者指出中国拥有的美国债务只占美国债务总数的不到5%。所以即使美国没和中国借到钱他也有办法解决这个问题。
Recommend (55)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SunT wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:14 GMT
The money could be spent as partial compensation for all the technology and IP stolen and being stolen by the Chinese.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-china-usa-cyberespionage-id...
这些钱应该拿来补偿中国人已经偷取和正在偷取的技术和知识产权（的损失），（即使这样也只能补偿）一部分。
Recommend (47)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lpc1998 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 2:44 GMT
At US$3 trillion, China's foreign reserves looks huge, but it works out to be only US$2,150 per capita which is lesser than many other countries'. Moreover, China's external debts rose exponentially in recent years hitting US$550 billion by the end of 2010. So the actual net foreign reserves is much lesser.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/2011/03/31/chinas-external-debt-nears-550-bil...
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=dt_dod_dect_cd&idim=count...
说到3万亿美元，中国的外汇储备看上去很多，实际每个人只有2150美元，这低于很多国家的水平。还有，中国的外债近年来成倍增加，在2010年已经达到了5500亿美元。所以实际的外汇储备比看上去的要少。
China's soaring external debts in the midst of rapidly increasing foreign reserves appear counter-intuitive. However, they are the consequences of many Chinese companies borrowing in foreign currencies and depositing them in the Chinese banks in exchange for RMB in expectation of making substantial gains from the appreciation of RMB against the foreign currencies. This is one manifestation of the intrinsic weakness of the world's major currencies.
中国飙升的外债在迅速增长的外汇储备的映衬下看上去挺不真实的。但是这就是很多中国公司借贷外汇再把外汇抵押给中国银行兑换成人民币以期在人民币对外汇升值的过程中持续获利的后果呢。这就是世界主要货币固有弱点的一个体现。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave222 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:38 GMT
Manhattan sure has gone up in value. 60 guilders of beads?
曼哈顿毫无疑问当然是升值了。60荷兰盾的小玩物*？
【60 guilders of beads 60荷兰盾的小玩物：1626年荷兰殖民者以价值60荷兰盾(相当于24美元)的一些小玩物从印第安人手中购买了“曼哈顿”作为贸易站，称之为“新阿姆斯特丹”。事后印第安人大呼“曼哈顿”(意为“受骗了”)。“曼哈顿”的名字即源于此。1664年英王查理二世的弟弟约克公爵成了这块土地的主人，改称“新约克”(New York)(英国有约克郡)即纽约。】
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ari g wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:31 GMT
Everybody wants to get their filthy hands on Chinese money. The money rightfully belongs to the average Chinese. They had worked worked and sacrificed tremendously, earning below what they ought to have been entitled to in terms of a fair day's wage for a fair day's work. Beijing should return part (at least 30%) of the gains from this huge reserves to every Chinese above 18 years of age. The average Chinese citizen had been living beneath their means subsidising the rich In China, America and Europe. It's about time, Socialist China lives up to its name and make the next Spring festival a memorable festival with dividends to the Chinese citizen "shareholders" of "China Inc.", backdating to 2009 and 2010.
每个家伙都想把他们肮脏的手伸向中国人的钱包。这笔钱理所应当属于普通的中国大众。他们努力工作并且做出极大牺牲，而他们拿到的收入却低于按照“诚实工作得公平工资”的原则所应得的数字。对于由这个巨大储备而得到的收益，北京政府应该返还部分（至少30%）给每一个18岁以上的中国人。普通的中国公民们生活在他们的手段下补助着中国、美国和欧洲的富人们。是时候了，社会主义中国要不愧于自己的名字，让下一个春节变成一个值得纪念的节日——让中国公民也成为“中国公司”的“股东”获得分红收益，这期限回溯到2009和2010年。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Varun GuptaIndia wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:18 GMT
How about using these reserves to improve the countryside and the rural and poor population.
How about China finally lets its currency float - a fixed rate regime would mean dollars accumulation would go on and the world would keep suffering the imbalances.
用这些储备用来改善帮助农村以及贫困人口怎么样？
中国最后放任货币浮动怎么样？——一个固定汇率制度就意味着美元的堆积会继续，并且让世界受失衡的折磨。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mac maRtin wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:34 GMT
Please Do not refer the group of Spain, Greece, Portugal, ireland as "PIGS". It is quite offensive. Thank you
请不要把西班牙、希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰归类称呼为“笨猪四国”，这实在很辱人不快。谢谢。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freak on a Mountain wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:23 GMT
They're going to invest it on infrastructure. Trust me on this. The money's going to go to migrant workers building subway lines and highways. There's still the convertability problem, but all those dollars are building railways and riverways and ports. Oh, and solar panels and windmills, and your usual bureaucratic nonsense that gets in the way, but it's going to infrastructure in China, mostly. Thank God almighty that the Chinese haven't gotten that heavily into weapons manufacturing; otherwise the whole world would be full of cheap plastic AK-74s.
他们打算把这钱投资在基础设施上。这一点请相信我。钱会话给民工们去建设地铁和高速路。兑换性问题仍然存在，但所有这些美元都在建设铁路、河道以及港口。对了，还有太阳能电站和风力电站。还有，你们常说的官僚政治什么的废话的确会挡点道，但大多数钱还是流向了基础设施。感谢万能的上帝，中国人没有大量投资在武器制造上；否则这个世界会充斥着廉价的塑料AK-74冲锋枪*。
【AK-74：大名鼎鼎的AK-47的升级版，译者不清楚他是专门指这个型号，还是47的笔误。AK-47及其各种改型是全世界流传最广的枪族，廉价实用杀伤力大，即使是儿童在最恶劣的使用环境下也能正常开火，常见于第三世界国家和非正规军、恐怖组织。这里译者要注明一下，一是AK-74的确有部分部件是塑料制的；二是中国制造的AK-47枪族已经行销全球了，包括美国国内……】
Recommend (24)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
nschomer wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:53 GMT
@AphexTriplet"when you get to figures like that it's just a number."
I think that's sort of the point of this article, China has a lot of U.S. "dollars", which in reality means it has nothing, just a string of digits in a computer someplace of questionable actual value. In fact with the recent quantitative easings the U.S.government has demonstrated that even the number itself is subject to whimsical change. A lot of people complain that this was the government "printing a bunch of new money", but the reality is even more scary - they didn't print a single new bill, they just decided that certain bank accounts, with their permission, could go ahead and add another 0 or two. Sort of undercuts this whole mutually shared illusion of the value of floating currency, don't it.
In any case China is getting stuck with the bill as the U.S. comes to inevitable conclusion that the choices for shinking our debt are either A. A sound fiscal policy based on shared sacrifice and responsible cuts in spending paired with unpopular tax hikes, or, B. Inflation.
I don't think it will be hard to choose the winner on that count.
回复AphexTriplet
“但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。”
我想这在就是本文的观点之一。中国有很多“美元”，但实际上它什么也没有，只不过是存在计算机里使用价值存疑的一串数字罢了。实际上，考虑到近来美国政府一系列的定量宽松*，即便是这个数字本身也手浮动变化的影响。许多人抱怨这就是政府在“印大堆大堆的钱”，但事实却是更加惊人——他们不是印刷新的纸币，他们只不过仗着他们的权限，来决定让银行账号继续增大，在数字后面加上一两个零。这样的降价竞争完全是相互地分享了对浮动货币价值的虚幻观念【这一句译者不是太确定，请指点】，不是么？
无论如何，中国被这账单套牢了，而美国必然会得出结论：要想缩减我们的债务只有俩选项，要么就选项A，一个稳健的财政政策，这要基于共担的牺牲和责任，减少花销并配上不受欢迎的加税；要么就选项B，通胀。
我不认为选出这道单选题的答案会很难。
【quantitative easing “定量宽松”政策，实际上就是加大货币发行量，以放松（ease）借贷环境，属于扩张性的货币政策。具体而言，就是由央行发行一定量的新货币，然后用它在公开市场买入政府债券；银行把债券卖给央行后就有了更多的现金，就可以向外贷款。西方一些经济学家认为，所谓“定量宽松”政策，其实就是央行开动印钞机器的一种委婉说法，这一政策经常在银行利率已经降无可降的情况下采用。“定量宽松”政策的目的是为了促进贷款发放，企业增加投资，从而推动就业率的上升和经济的增长。】
Recommend (22)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrates76 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:01 GMT
This is exactly what I've been saying. China's geniuses socked away all this money but they can't spend it without putting even more pressure on the RMB, it amounts to a bunch of worthless IOUs while American corporations hold the actual dollars thanks to cheap labour and the West's greed for cheap crap.
这个恰恰就是我所说的。中国的精英天才们积攒了这些财富，但他们却不能在不给人民币施压的前提下花销这笔钱。它们只不过是一堆没价值的借条，而对亏了低价劳动力以及西方对廉价垃圾的贪婪，美国的公司持有了实际的美元
Any harm the communist government thinks it can do to foreign countries by tanking a currency, will ultimately come back and hit them even harder. American economy "collapses" and China's won't be far behind.
这个共产党政府所想的通过货币所能带给外国的任何伤害，最终都会反馈回去，且对他们伤害得更深。美国经济“崩溃”了那么中国也很快会步其后尘。
Recommend (19)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AphexTriplet wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:04 GMT
I don't know if it's the same for anyone else, but when you get to figures like that it's just a number.
我不知道其他人是否也这样，但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。
Recommend (17)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aly-Khan Satchu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:06 GMT
Who has the Dollars? Hu does. In a c21st World, Where nearly Everyone is a 'Busted Flush', it makes the Creditor ever more powerful You said 'China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price' is in many ways a Narrative Fallacy about China. China can simply crater practically any Asset if they so choose. To assume they won't, seems a very poor Risk-Adjusted Position to be clinging to.
哪个有美刀？胡哥有美刀【英文里的“谁”who和“胡”hu谐音】。在现在这21世纪，几乎人人都是“同花却不顺”*，这就使得债主们更有势利了。你所说的“中国可以出价买下几乎任何物品——但若以现价那几乎什么也买不到”，这对中国来说在许多方面都是自说自话的叙事谬误**。只要中国决定了，他们可以轻易实际坑下任何资产。谁要是假设他们不买，那看起来他就是死守着极糟糕的风险评估态度。
【*'Busted Flush同花却不顺。原意出自扑克，指握了一手同花的牌，很有机会同花顺的，最后没顺失败了。后来引申为开始有很大潜力但结果没有价值。
** Narrative Fallacy叙事谬误，就算周围环境中的所有事件都是随机的，我们也能讲出有头有尾的故事来阐述因果关系。】
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi
http://rich.co.ke
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MorallyBankrupt wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:58 GMT
Uhm, FX reserves are just that, reserves. They can't be "spent." They can be swapped for other assets that can be kept as reserves, but they are not a piggy bank. They are just something on the asset side of a CB balance sheet. Would it be wise to invest them properly? Yes. but they can't just buy illiquid assets with them. Those reserves are what is used to defend currencies when liquidity crises spill-over to FX markets. they are vital to keeping FX markets in range and must be kept liquid.
嗯，外汇储备也就仅仅是“储备”。它们不可以拿来“花”的。它们可以交换成其他能作为储备的财产，但却不是存钱罐。它们只不过是央行财务状况表里“资产”一栏里的条目而已。 用它们来适当投资明智吗？明智。但是不能用来买非流动资产。这些储备是在外汇市场流动性危机溢出之时，用来保卫货币的。他们对确保外汇市场受控至关重要，而且必须保持流动。
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lesterliu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:12 GMT
i dont know but can u hostile takeover IBM Apple? what about BP, Rio Tinto. Will FIRB approve these kind of takeovers? The chances are not.
Can you put a monetary values on the best universities, Think tank ect...
China has money, but those things worthing buying are not on the market.
humm how do you solve this.. any takers?
我不明白，但是你可以对IBM、苹果搞恶意收购吗？那BP石油公司*、力拓**怎么样？外资审查委员会能批准这样的收购？没有可能性。
你可以为最好的大学、智库等等标价么？
中国是有钱，但那些值得花钱买的，却无价也无市。
嗯，你怎么解决这问题？有人接招吗？
【*BP石油公司（British Petroleum)，英国石油集团公司。BP是世界上最大的石油和石化集团公司之一。由前英国石油、阿莫科、阿科和嘉实多等公司整合重组形成。公司的主要业务是油气勘探开发；炼油；天然气销售和发电；油品零售和运输；以及石油化工产品生产和销售。
**力拓（Rio Tinto）：世界第三大矿业公司，为世界第二大铁矿石生产商，在中国的市场占有率为第一。
*** FIRB澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会， (Foreign Investment Review Board)成立于1976年，负责向财长提供政府外资政策和执行的咨询。财长享有外国投资政策制定及外国投资项目的审批权。】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:01 GMT
@ reconst - good idea, but considering the value of that purchase, the Chinese still have $1,999,999,999,999.99 trillion in change
Perhaps the economist should have made comparisons to purchasing assets of developing countries, or investments to uplift developing countries. With that kind of money China could easily upgrade most developing countries into (at least) middle income, which could be a good investment when those middle income countries turn around and buy more Chinese products.
But that is just me dreaming. China has no intention of uplifting developing countries....
回复reconst
好主意，但是考虑到这项采购的价值，中国仍然握有1.999 999 999 999 99万亿。
也许经济学人应该做个对比：购买发展中国家的资产，或者投资来促进提升发展中国家。有这样大量的钱，中国可以轻易地把大多数发展中国家提升到（至少是）中等收入的水平，而这会是很好的投资，届时那些中等收入的国家会反过来购买更多的中国产品。
但这只是我的梦想而已。中国没有意愿去帮助提升发展中国家……
【我怎么想起了，捐赠的羊羔被直接吃掉的路边社小谣言……TG出门自带施工队的传统可不是闲得想为航运公司做贡献啊】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:06 GMT
@ ari g - and then one could open the window and watch the pigs fly bye (no offense Mac maRtin). China socialist? It is only socialist when it suits the government. In fact it is only 'anything' when it suits them. Right now China is a dictatorship arresting free speech activists, but tomorrow they will tell us they are communist and the next day capitalist and the next day anti-imperialist and the next day.....
回复ari g
到那时你可以打开窗然后看见猪在天上飞（不是在冒犯 Mac martin*）。
中国，社会主义者？只有当配合政府时才算是社会主义者；实际上只要配合政府，它可以被叫做任何主义者。当下，中国就是个独裁政权，压迫自由发言的活跃分子；但到了明天，他们会自称是共产主义者；到了后天，是资本主义者；大后天，是反帝国主义者；再后一天……
【*Mac martin是前面的一个读者，他觉得把葡萄牙、爱尔兰等四国称作“笨猪”四国是一个冒犯的说法】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wayne Bernard wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:57 GMT
Not only is China sitting on a pile of cash, they are sitting on a massive pile of gold as shown here:
中国不止是攒了一堆的现金，他们还攒了大堆的黄金，看看这里：
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/10/china-and-their-gigantic-pi...
Recommend (14)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stratofile wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:25 GMT
such amount of kept money is like to WMD and it will make huge problems to the entire world. Also,Chinas government can sink USA economics and it will lead us to destruction of global economics!
如此巨量的钱抓在手里，就和大杀器*一样啊，它会给整个世界造成极大问题。而且，中国政府可以击沉美国经济，并将领着我们走向全球经济的毁灭。
【*WMD weapon of mass destruction 大规模杀伤性武器，指用来大规模屠杀的武器，一般针对的是平民，但是也可以针对军事人员。它包括三类武器：核武器（包括放射性武器）、化学武器、生物武器。】
Recommend (13)中文标题:三万亿大款，伤不起啊 原文标题:Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
译文信息
发布人:solar115 协作:康康Tainy 发布日期：2011-05-14 17:56:34 原文国家:英国 阅读:5390 评论:37条
来源:
来源连接:http://www.economist.com/node/18560525
导读: 都说人怕出名猪怕壮，不怕贼偷就怕贼惦记。世界看中国是不是就好像在看着一只大如火星的烤乳猪……
前言：中国的外汇是个世界性蛋糕+世界级难题；三万亿大款，你伤不起啊。有国内砖家说，中国的外汇因为升值损失了2711亿美元。而在国外，盯着中国这笔钱的眼睛，不说多如牛毛，起码也多如兔毛，不妨看看《经济学人》的国外砖家们流着口水说要怎么花这笔钱。《经济学人》的读者评论一向是亮点，我们按推荐数排序，翻译了第一页所有评论，后面的评论推荐数只有个位数的就不翻译了。
特别感谢康康Tainy的合作翻译。黑色是原文，蓝色是译文，红色是注释。有翻译不当的地方，Solar先道歉了，还请各位指点。
China's foreign reserves
Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
Window-shopping with China’s central bank
中国的外汇储备
谁想过把万亿大款的瘾？
那就陪着中国央行来次扫街吧?
【window-shopping：只看不买的逛街】
图：梦幻血拼：
今年石油的总产量 3.41万亿美元；
美国农田1.87万亿；
“笨猪”四国*主权债务：1.51万亿美元；
货币黄金**：1.43万亿美元；
苹果微软IBM和古狗：9160亿美元；
美国军事装备：4140亿美元；
曼哈顿不动产：2870亿美元；
华盛顿不动产：2320亿美元；
50支最贵的运动俱乐部：500亿美元
【*笨猪四国：葡萄牙(Portugal)、意大利(Italy)、希腊(Greece)、西班牙(Spain)四国英文首字母接成一个词，正好是“PIGS”(群猪)，于是，将陷入债务危机中这四个国家称为“笨猪四国”，如果加上爱尔兰（Ireland）就是PIIGS，笨猪五国。
**货币黄金是一国货币当局所持有的货币性黄金。货币性黄金的交易仅在不同国家的货币当局之间或货币当局与国际货币基金组织之间进行。】
BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.
截止去年年底，中国的外汇储备已经有2.85万亿美元了。虽然中国在今年第一季度很稀罕地入超了，但4月14日中国央行发布的最新数据显示他们的外汇储备在3月底已经飙过了3万亿美元。
China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.
中国的央行有的是钱，但没啥想象力。它的外汇储备里，划了巨大的一块投在无聊的美国国债上。这意味着它可以指望着把自己美元捞回来。但是，如果美国败给了通胀或者贬值，那中国就要为这些美元能值多少而头疼了。
So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.
那么，中国拿着这笔钱还能干嘛？抛去美元，中国也许会迷恋上欧元。中国可以一气买下西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊四国所有未偿还的主权债券，瞬间解决欧元区的债务危机*。而且中国仍然还能剩余近一半的储备在手。
【译者注：欧元区债务危机：2009年12月，全球三大评级公司标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级，此后欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机，“欧猪五国 PIIGS”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)的信用评级被调低，经济下滑，债台高筑，整个欧洲面临严峻考验。2010年5月10日，欧盟27国财长被迫决定设立总额为7500亿欧元的救助机制，帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国，防止危机继续蔓延。危机至今还在困扰着欧洲。】
It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.
中国也可以换个方向，选择抛开所有债券去炒股。中国可以用不到一万亿美元一口吞下苹果、微软、IBM和古狗*。它也可以学学中东油霸和俄国寡头买买英超俱乐部**。根据《福布斯》***杂志，去年全球价值最高的前50个运动俱乐部总值504亿美元，还不到中国外汇储备的2% .
【译者注：*苹果Apple，4月20日市值3154.5亿美元；微软Microsoft，4月20日市值2164.5亿美元；IBM，4月20日市值2009.2亿美元；古狗Google4月20日市值1690.3亿美元。四家公司总市值是9018.5亿美元。
**俄罗斯富豪阿布拉莫维奇在2003年买下英超切尔西俱乐部，至今总投入超过4.5亿英镑；阿布扎比联合集团2008年买下英超曼城俱乐部，至今总投入超过5.7亿英镑。
***《福布斯》Forbes为双周刊杂志，每期刊登60多篇对公司和公司经营者的评论性文章，被誉为“美国经济的晴雨表”。】
Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?
国际富豪们还青睐于投资在不动产上。也许中国应该买下一些曼哈顿的尊贵房产。诶，干嘛不买下整个曼哈顿呢？按照纽约市政府的说法，整个岛可征税的房产总之也就仅仅2870亿美元而已。而华盛顿特区的房产只值区区2320亿美元。中国已经习惯当华盛顿*的债主了，何不干脆直接当地主算了？
【*华盛顿，此处双关，指美国。前面的华盛顿特区Washington, D.C是首都，总面积177平方公里。】
China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.
中国也可以减轻他们对能源、食物和军事安全的焦虑。三万亿美元可以买下今年全球石油总供应量的88% .在美国大陆买下所有农田（包括农场建筑）仅仅需要1.86万亿美元（2009年的价格）。而中国理论上可以买下美国的整个国防部，根据国防部的2010年资产报表，它的财产总值是1.9万亿美元。而且这个数据中很大部分还是土地、建筑物和投资所值；那些枪啊炮啊坦克啊啥啥的军事装备其实只值4137亿美元罢了。
These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.
以上这些琐细无厘头的计算，反映了中国外汇储备规模之巨大，但同时也说明了中国在投资多样化时所面对的巨大困难。任何一项购置交易，只要规模大到足以确保得到中国的关注，就也会引发市场为之而动荡。中国可以报价买下几乎任何东西——但想用现价那基本上什么也买不到。
评论翻译
reconst wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:12 GMT
China should buy The Economist.
中国就该买下经济学人。
Recommend (195)PermalinkReport abuse 【推荐数195，下同】
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ghaliban wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:10 GMT
"China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice"
I know you're only trying to illustrate the scale of the numbers involved light-heartedly, but just to note that China buying the outstanding debt of the PIGS will not solve their debt crisis. It would only change the identity of their creditors.
“中国可以买下所有西班牙，爱尔兰，葡萄牙还有希腊未偿还的主权债券。立即解决欧元区的债务危机。”
我想你只是在说明了（中国外汇）数量有多大，但是还是要注意即使中国购买了欧猪四国的未偿还债务，欧猪的危机还是没解决。只不过债务的债权人更换了而已。
Recommend (68)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yongke wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:05 GMT
Even the Chinese (me included) realise that at this point, forex are just numbers on papers. I don't think the Chinese government want to lend to the US anymore than the US want to borrow from China. Yet it is necessary to current keep the economy going.
So there is no need to preach, everyone (including the Chinese) are already on the same page. You just have to be patient while it is being fixed.
即使是中国人（包括我自己）也明白外汇只是纸上的数字而已。我认为与美国想向中国借钱的意愿相比中国不政府不是那么愿意把钱借给美国。但是保持现在的经济增长还是必要的。
所以啊不用宣讲了。每个人（包括中国人）都已经在这个问题（指外汇）上达成共识，你们只是不得不耐心等待一切好转。
Also, certain options are not acceptable so it's pointless to demand them. Specifically I am talking about a large one-time re-eva luation of the Chinese Yuan.
Also also, may I point out to other readers that the Chinese holding on US debt is less than 5% of the entire US debt holdings. So even if the US default on China's loans, it will not solve their problem.
还有，如果有的要求是不能被接受的就用不着再提出这种要求了。我说的就是一次性大幅重估人民币。
另外，我要向其他读者指出中国拥有的美国债务只占美国债务总数的不到5%。所以即使美国没和中国借到钱他也有办法解决这个问题。
Recommend (55)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SunT wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:14 GMT
The money could be spent as partial compensation for all the technology and IP stolen and being stolen by the Chinese.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-china-usa-cyberespionage-id...
这些钱应该拿来补偿中国人已经偷取和正在偷取的技术和知识产权（的损失），（即使这样也只能补偿）一部分。
Recommend (47)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lpc1998 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 2:44 GMT
At US$3 trillion, China's foreign reserves looks huge, but it works out to be only US$2,150 per capita which is lesser than many other countries'. Moreover, China's external debts rose exponentially in recent years hitting US$550 billion by the end of 2010. So the actual net foreign reserves is much lesser.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/2011/03/31/chinas-external-debt-nears-550-bil...
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=dt_dod_dect_cd&idim=count...
说到3万亿美元，中国的外汇储备看上去很多，实际每个人只有2150美元，这低于很多国家的水平。还有，中国的外债近年来成倍增加，在2010年已经达到了5500亿美元。所以实际的外汇储备比看上去的要少。
China's soaring external debts in the midst of rapidly increasing foreign reserves appear counter-intuitive. However, they are the consequences of many Chinese companies borrowing in foreign currencies and depositing them in the Chinese banks in exchange for RMB in expectation of making substantial gains from the appreciation of RMB against the foreign currencies. This is one manifestation of the intrinsic weakness of the world's major currencies.
中国飙升的外债在迅速增长的外汇储备的映衬下看上去挺不真实的。但是这就是很多中国公司借贷外汇再把外汇抵押给中国银行兑换成人民币以期在人民币对外汇升值的过程中持续获利的后果呢。这就是世界主要货币固有弱点的一个体现。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave222 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:38 GMT
Manhattan sure has gone up in value. 60 guilders of beads?
曼哈顿毫无疑问当然是升值了。60荷兰盾的小玩物*？
【60 guilders of beads 60荷兰盾的小玩物：1626年荷兰殖民者以价值60荷兰盾(相当于24美元)的一些小玩物从印第安人手中购买了“曼哈顿”作为贸易站，称之为“新阿姆斯特丹”。事后印第安人大呼“曼哈顿”(意为“受骗了”)。“曼哈顿”的名字即源于此。1664年英王查理二世的弟弟约克公爵成了这块土地的主人，改称“新约克”(New York)(英国有约克郡)即纽约。】
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ari g wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:31 GMT
Everybody wants to get their filthy hands on Chinese money. The money rightfully belongs to the average Chinese. They had worked worked and sacrificed tremendously, earning below what they ought to have been entitled to in terms of a fair day's wage for a fair day's work. Beijing should return part (at least 30%) of the gains from this huge reserves to every Chinese above 18 years of age. The average Chinese citizen had been living beneath their means subsidising the rich In China, America and Europe. It's about time, Socialist China lives up to its name and make the next Spring festival a memorable festival with dividends to the Chinese citizen "shareholders" of "China Inc.", backdating to 2009 and 2010.
每个家伙都想把他们肮脏的手伸向中国人的钱包。这笔钱理所应当属于普通的中国大众。他们努力工作并且做出极大牺牲，而他们拿到的收入却低于按照“诚实工作得公平工资”的原则所应得的数字。对于由这个巨大储备而得到的收益，北京政府应该返还部分（至少30%）给每一个18岁以上的中国人。普通的中国公民们生活在他们的手段下补助着中国、美国和欧洲的富人们。是时候了，社会主义中国要不愧于自己的名字，让下一个春节变成一个值得纪念的节日——让中国公民也成为“中国公司”的“股东”获得分红收益，这期限回溯到2009和2010年。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Varun GuptaIndia wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:18 GMT
How about using these reserves to improve the countryside and the rural and poor population.
How about China finally lets its currency float - a fixed rate regime would mean dollars accumulation would go on and the world would keep suffering the imbalances.
用这些储备用来改善帮助农村以及贫困人口怎么样？
中国最后放任货币浮动怎么样？——一个固定汇率制度就意味着美元的堆积会继续，并且让世界受失衡的折磨。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mac maRtin wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:34 GMT
Please Do not refer the group of Spain, Greece, Portugal, ireland as "PIGS". It is quite offensive. Thank you
请不要把西班牙、希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰归类称呼为“笨猪四国”，这实在很辱人不快。谢谢。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freak on a Mountain wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:23 GMT
They're going to invest it on infrastructure. Trust me on this. The money's going to go to migrant workers building subway lines and highways. There's still the convertability problem, but all those dollars are building railways and riverways and ports. Oh, and solar panels and windmills, and your usual bureaucratic nonsense that gets in the way, but it's going to infrastructure in China, mostly. Thank God almighty that the Chinese haven't gotten that heavily into weapons manufacturing; otherwise the whole world would be full of cheap plastic AK-74s.
他们打算把这钱投资在基础设施上。这一点请相信我。钱会话给民工们去建设地铁和高速路。兑换性问题仍然存在，但所有这些美元都在建设铁路、河道以及港口。对了，还有太阳能电站和风力电站。还有，你们常说的官僚政治什么的废话的确会挡点道，但大多数钱还是流向了基础设施。感谢万能的上帝，中国人没有大量投资在武器制造上；否则这个世界会充斥着廉价的塑料AK-74冲锋枪*。
【AK-74：大名鼎鼎的AK-47的升级版，译者不清楚他是专门指这个型号，还是47的笔误。AK-47及其各种改型是全世界流传最广的枪族，廉价实用杀伤力大，即使是儿童在最恶劣的使用环境下也能正常开火，常见于第三世界国家和非正规军、恐怖组织。这里译者要注明一下，一是AK-74的确有部分部件是塑料制的；二是中国制造的AK-47枪族已经行销全球了，包括美国国内……】
Recommend (24)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
nschomer wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:53 GMT
@AphexTriplet"when you get to figures like that it's just a number."
I think that's sort of the point of this article, China has a lot of U.S. "dollars", which in reality means it has nothing, just a string of digits in a computer someplace of questionable actual value. In fact with the recent quantitative easings the U.S.government has demonstrated that even the number itself is subject to whimsical change. A lot of people complain that this was the government "printing a bunch of new money", but the reality is even more scary - they didn't print a single new bill, they just decided that certain bank accounts, with their permission, could go ahead and add another 0 or two. Sort of undercuts this whole mutually shared illusion of the value of floating currency, don't it.
In any case China is getting stuck with the bill as the U.S. comes to inevitable conclusion that the choices for shinking our debt are either A. A sound fiscal policy based on shared sacrifice and responsible cuts in spending paired with unpopular tax hikes, or, B. Inflation.
I don't think it will be hard to choose the winner on that count.
回复AphexTriplet
“但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。”
我想这在就是本文的观点之一。中国有很多“美元”，但实际上它什么也没有，只不过是存在计算机里使用价值存疑的一串数字罢了。实际上，考虑到近来美国政府一系列的定量宽松*，即便是这个数字本身也手浮动变化的影响。许多人抱怨这就是政府在“印大堆大堆的钱”，但事实却是更加惊人——他们不是印刷新的纸币，他们只不过仗着他们的权限，来决定让银行账号继续增大，在数字后面加上一两个零。这样的降价竞争完全是相互地分享了对浮动货币价值的虚幻观念【这一句译者不是太确定，请指点】，不是么？
无论如何，中国被这账单套牢了，而美国必然会得出结论：要想缩减我们的债务只有俩选项，要么就选项A，一个稳健的财政政策，这要基于共担的牺牲和责任，减少花销并配上不受欢迎的加税；要么就选项B，通胀。
我不认为选出这道单选题的答案会很难。
【quantitative easing “定量宽松”政策，实际上就是加大货币发行量，以放松（ease）借贷环境，属于扩张性的货币政策。具体而言，就是由央行发行一定量的新货币，然后用它在公开市场买入政府债券；银行把债券卖给央行后就有了更多的现金，就可以向外贷款。西方一些经济学家认为，所谓“定量宽松”政策，其实就是央行开动印钞机器的一种委婉说法，这一政策经常在银行利率已经降无可降的情况下采用。“定量宽松”政策的目的是为了促进贷款发放，企业增加投资，从而推动就业率的上升和经济的增长。】
Recommend (22)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrates76 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:01 GMT
This is exactly what I've been saying. China's geniuses socked away all this money but they can't spend it without putting even more pressure on the RMB, it amounts to a bunch of worthless IOUs while American corporations hold the actual dollars thanks to cheap labour and the West's greed for cheap crap.
这个恰恰就是我所说的。中国的精英天才们积攒了这些财富，但他们却不能在不给人民币施压的前提下花销这笔钱。它们只不过是一堆没价值的借条，而对亏了低价劳动力以及西方对廉价垃圾的贪婪，美国的公司持有了实际的美元
Any harm the communist government thinks it can do to foreign countries by tanking a currency, will ultimately come back and hit them even harder. American economy "collapses" and China's won't be far behind.
这个共产党政府所想的通过货币所能带给外国的任何伤害，最终都会反馈回去，且对他们伤害得更深。美国经济“崩溃”了那么中国也很快会步其后尘。
Recommend (19)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AphexTriplet wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:04 GMT
I don't know if it's the same for anyone else, but when you get to figures like that it's just a number.
我不知道其他人是否也这样，但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。
Recommend (17)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aly-Khan Satchu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:06 GMT
Who has the Dollars? Hu does. In a c21st World, Where nearly Everyone is a 'Busted Flush', it makes the Creditor ever more powerful You said 'China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price' is in many ways a Narrative Fallacy about China. China can simply crater practically any Asset if they so choose. To assume they won't, seems a very poor Risk-Adjusted Position to be clinging to.
哪个有美刀？胡哥有美刀【英文里的“谁”who和“胡”hu谐音】。在现在这21世纪，几乎人人都是“同花却不顺”*，这就使得债主们更有势利了。你所说的“中国可以出价买下几乎任何物品——但若以现价那几乎什么也买不到”，这对中国来说在许多方面都是自说自话的叙事谬误**。只要中国决定了，他们可以轻易实际坑下任何资产。谁要是假设他们不买，那看起来他就是死守着极糟糕的风险评估态度。
【*'Busted Flush同花却不顺。原意出自扑克，指握了一手同花的牌，很有机会同花顺的，最后没顺失败了。后来引申为开始有很大潜力但结果没有价值。
** Narrative Fallacy叙事谬误，就算周围环境中的所有事件都是随机的，我们也能讲出有头有尾的故事来阐述因果关系。】
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi
http://rich.co.ke
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MorallyBankrupt wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:58 GMT
Uhm, FX reserves are just that, reserves. They can't be "spent." They can be swapped for other assets that can be kept as reserves, but they are not a piggy bank. They are just something on the asset side of a CB balance sheet. Would it be wise to invest them properly? Yes. but they can't just buy illiquid assets with them. Those reserves are what is used to defend currencies when liquidity crises spill-over to FX markets. they are vital to keeping FX markets in range and must be kept liquid.
嗯，外汇储备也就仅仅是“储备”。它们不可以拿来“花”的。它们可以交换成其他能作为储备的财产，但却不是存钱罐。它们只不过是央行财务状况表里“资产”一栏里的条目而已。 用它们来适当投资明智吗？明智。但是不能用来买非流动资产。这些储备是在外汇市场流动性危机溢出之时，用来保卫货币的。他们对确保外汇市场受控至关重要，而且必须保持流动。
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lesterliu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:12 GMT
i dont know but can u hostile takeover IBM Apple? what about BP, Rio Tinto. Will FIRB approve these kind of takeovers? The chances are not.
Can you put a monetary values on the best universities, Think tank ect...
China has money, but those things worthing buying are not on the market.
humm how do you solve this.. any takers?
我不明白，但是你可以对IBM、苹果搞恶意收购吗？那BP石油公司*、力拓**怎么样？外资审查委员会能批准这样的收购？没有可能性。
你可以为最好的大学、智库等等标价么？
中国是有钱，但那些值得花钱买的，却无价也无市。
嗯，你怎么解决这问题？有人接招吗？
【*BP石油公司（British Petroleum)，英国石油集团公司。BP是世界上最大的石油和石化集团公司之一。由前英国石油、阿莫科、阿科和嘉实多等公司整合重组形成。公司的主要业务是油气勘探开发；炼油；天然气销售和发电；油品零售和运输；以及石油化工产品生产和销售。
**力拓（Rio Tinto）：世界第三大矿业公司，为世界第二大铁矿石生产商，在中国的市场占有率为第一。
*** FIRB澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会， (Foreign Investment Review Board)成立于1976年，负责向财长提供政府外资政策和执行的咨询。财长享有外国投资政策制定及外国投资项目的审批权。】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:01 GMT
@ reconst - good idea, but considering the value of that purchase, the Chinese still have $1,999,999,999,999.99 trillion in change
Perhaps the economist should have made comparisons to purchasing assets of developing countries, or investments to uplift developing countries. With that kind of money China could easily upgrade most developing countries into (at least) middle income, which could be a good investment when those middle income countries turn around and buy more Chinese products.
But that is just me dreaming. China has no intention of uplifting developing countries....
回复reconst
好主意，但是考虑到这项采购的价值，中国仍然握有1.999 999 999 999 99万亿。
也许经济学人应该做个对比：购买发展中国家的资产，或者投资来促进提升发展中国家。有这样大量的钱，中国可以轻易地把大多数发展中国家提升到（至少是）中等收入的水平，而这会是很好的投资，届时那些中等收入的国家会反过来购买更多的中国产品。
但这只是我的梦想而已。中国没有意愿去帮助提升发展中国家……
【我怎么想起了，捐赠的羊羔被直接吃掉的路边社小谣言……TG出门自带施工队的传统可不是闲得想为航运公司做贡献啊】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:06 GMT
@ ari g - and then one could open the window and watch the pigs fly bye (no offense Mac maRtin). China socialist? It is only socialist when it suits the government. In fact it is only 'anything' when it suits them. Right now China is a dictatorship arresting free speech activists, but tomorrow they will tell us they are communist and the next day capitalist and the next day anti-imperialist and the next day.....
回复ari g
到那时你可以打开窗然后看见猪在天上飞（不是在冒犯 Mac martin*）。
中国，社会主义者？只有当配合政府时才算是社会主义者；实际上只要配合政府，它可以被叫做任何主义者。当下，中国就是个独裁政权，压迫自由发言的活跃分子；但到了明天，他们会自称是共产主义者；到了后天，是资本主义者；大后天，是反帝国主义者；再后一天……
【*Mac martin是前面的一个读者，他觉得把葡萄牙、爱尔兰等四国称作“笨猪”四国是一个冒犯的说法】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wayne Bernard wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:57 GMT
Not only is China sitting on a pile of cash, they are sitting on a massive pile of gold as shown here:
中国不止是攒了一堆的现金，他们还攒了大堆的黄金，看看这里：
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/10/china-and-their-gigantic-pi...
Recommend (14)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stratofile wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:25 GMT
such amount of kept money is like to WMD and it will make huge problems to the entire world. Also,Chinas government can sink USA economics and it will lead us to destruction of global economics!
如此巨量的钱抓在手里，就和大杀器*一样啊，它会给整个世界造成极大问题。而且，中国政府可以击沉美国经济，并将领着我们走向全球经济的毁灭。
【*WMD weapon of mass destruction 大规模杀伤性武器，指用来大规模屠杀的武器，一般针对的是平民，但是也可以针对军事人员。它包括三类武器：核武器（包括放射性武器）、化学武器、生物武器。】
Recommend (13)
译文信息
发布人:solar115 协作:康康Tainy 发布日期：2011-05-14 17:56:34 原文国家:英国 阅读:5390 评论:37条
来源:
来源连接:http://www.economist.com/node/18560525
导读: 都说人怕出名猪怕壮，不怕贼偷就怕贼惦记。世界看中国是不是就好像在看着一只大如火星的烤乳猪……
前言：中国的外汇是个世界性蛋糕+世界级难题；三万亿大款，你伤不起啊。有国内砖家说，中国的外汇因为升值损失了2711亿美元。而在国外，盯着中国这笔钱的眼睛，不说多如牛毛，起码也多如兔毛，不妨看看《经济学人》的国外砖家们流着口水说要怎么花这笔钱。《经济学人》的读者评论一向是亮点，我们按推荐数排序，翻译了第一页所有评论，后面的评论推荐数只有个位数的就不翻译了。
特别感谢康康Tainy的合作翻译。黑色是原文，蓝色是译文，红色是注释。有翻译不当的地方，Solar先道歉了，还请各位指点。
China's foreign reserves
Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
Window-shopping with China’s central bank
中国的外汇储备
谁想过把万亿大款的瘾？
那就陪着中国央行来次扫街吧?
【window-shopping：只看不买的逛街】
图：梦幻血拼：
今年石油的总产量 3.41万亿美元；
美国农田1.87万亿；
“笨猪”四国*主权债务：1.51万亿美元；
货币黄金**：1.43万亿美元；
苹果微软IBM和古狗：9160亿美元；
美国军事装备：4140亿美元；
曼哈顿不动产：2870亿美元；
华盛顿不动产：2320亿美元；
50支最贵的运动俱乐部：500亿美元
【*笨猪四国：葡萄牙(Portugal)、意大利(Italy)、希腊(Greece)、西班牙(Spain)四国英文首字母接成一个词，正好是“PIGS”(群猪)，于是，将陷入债务危机中这四个国家称为“笨猪四国”，如果加上爱尔兰（Ireland）就是PIIGS，笨猪五国。
**货币黄金是一国货币当局所持有的货币性黄金。货币性黄金的交易仅在不同国家的货币当局之间或货币当局与国际货币基金组织之间进行。】
BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.
截止去年年底，中国的外汇储备已经有2.85万亿美元了。虽然中国在今年第一季度很稀罕地入超了，但4月14日中国央行发布的最新数据显示他们的外汇储备在3月底已经飙过了3万亿美元。
China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.
中国的央行有的是钱，但没啥想象力。它的外汇储备里，划了巨大的一块投在无聊的美国国债上。这意味着它可以指望着把自己美元捞回来。但是，如果美国败给了通胀或者贬值，那中国就要为这些美元能值多少而头疼了。
So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.
那么，中国拿着这笔钱还能干嘛？抛去美元，中国也许会迷恋上欧元。中国可以一气买下西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊四国所有未偿还的主权债券，瞬间解决欧元区的债务危机*。而且中国仍然还能剩余近一半的储备在手。
【译者注：欧元区债务危机：2009年12月，全球三大评级公司标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级，此后欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机，“欧猪五国 PIIGS”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)的信用评级被调低，经济下滑，债台高筑，整个欧洲面临严峻考验。2010年5月10日，欧盟27国财长被迫决定设立总额为7500亿欧元的救助机制，帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国，防止危机继续蔓延。危机至今还在困扰着欧洲。】
It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.
中国也可以换个方向，选择抛开所有债券去炒股。中国可以用不到一万亿美元一口吞下苹果、微软、IBM和古狗*。它也可以学学中东油霸和俄国寡头买买英超俱乐部**。根据《福布斯》***杂志，去年全球价值最高的前50个运动俱乐部总值504亿美元，还不到中国外汇储备的2% .
【译者注：*苹果Apple，4月20日市值3154.5亿美元；微软Microsoft，4月20日市值2164.5亿美元；IBM，4月20日市值2009.2亿美元；古狗Google4月20日市值1690.3亿美元。四家公司总市值是9018.5亿美元。
**俄罗斯富豪阿布拉莫维奇在2003年买下英超切尔西俱乐部，至今总投入超过4.5亿英镑；阿布扎比联合集团2008年买下英超曼城俱乐部，至今总投入超过5.7亿英镑。
***《福布斯》Forbes为双周刊杂志，每期刊登60多篇对公司和公司经营者的评论性文章，被誉为“美国经济的晴雨表”。】
Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?
国际富豪们还青睐于投资在不动产上。也许中国应该买下一些曼哈顿的尊贵房产。诶，干嘛不买下整个曼哈顿呢？按照纽约市政府的说法，整个岛可征税的房产总之也就仅仅2870亿美元而已。而华盛顿特区的房产只值区区2320亿美元。中国已经习惯当华盛顿*的债主了，何不干脆直接当地主算了？
【*华盛顿，此处双关，指美国。前面的华盛顿特区Washington, D.C是首都，总面积177平方公里。】
China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.
中国也可以减轻他们对能源、食物和军事安全的焦虑。三万亿美元可以买下今年全球石油总供应量的88% .在美国大陆买下所有农田（包括农场建筑）仅仅需要1.86万亿美元（2009年的价格）。而中国理论上可以买下美国的整个国防部，根据国防部的2010年资产报表，它的财产总值是1.9万亿美元。而且这个数据中很大部分还是土地、建筑物和投资所值；那些枪啊炮啊坦克啊啥啥的军事装备其实只值4137亿美元罢了。
These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.
以上这些琐细无厘头的计算，反映了中国外汇储备规模之巨大，但同时也说明了中国在投资多样化时所面对的巨大困难。任何一项购置交易，只要规模大到足以确保得到中国的关注，就也会引发市场为之而动荡。中国可以报价买下几乎任何东西——但想用现价那基本上什么也买不到。
评论翻译
reconst wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:12 GMT
China should buy The Economist.
中国就该买下经济学人。
Recommend (195)PermalinkReport abuse 【推荐数195，下同】
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ghaliban wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:10 GMT
"China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice"
I know you're only trying to illustrate the scale of the numbers involved light-heartedly, but just to note that China buying the outstanding debt of the PIGS will not solve their debt crisis. It would only change the identity of their creditors.
“中国可以买下所有西班牙，爱尔兰，葡萄牙还有希腊未偿还的主权债券。立即解决欧元区的债务危机。”
我想你只是在说明了（中国外汇）数量有多大，但是还是要注意即使中国购买了欧猪四国的未偿还债务，欧猪的危机还是没解决。只不过债务的债权人更换了而已。
Recommend (68)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yongke wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:05 GMT
Even the Chinese (me included) realise that at this point, forex are just numbers on papers. I don't think the Chinese government want to lend to the US anymore than the US want to borrow from China. Yet it is necessary to current keep the economy going.
So there is no need to preach, everyone (including the Chinese) are already on the same page. You just have to be patient while it is being fixed.
即使是中国人（包括我自己）也明白外汇只是纸上的数字而已。我认为与美国想向中国借钱的意愿相比中国不政府不是那么愿意把钱借给美国。但是保持现在的经济增长还是必要的。
所以啊不用宣讲了。每个人（包括中国人）都已经在这个问题（指外汇）上达成共识，你们只是不得不耐心等待一切好转。
Also, certain options are not acceptable so it's pointless to demand them. Specifically I am talking about a large one-time re-eva luation of the Chinese Yuan.
Also also, may I point out to other readers that the Chinese holding on US debt is less than 5% of the entire US debt holdings. So even if the US default on China's loans, it will not solve their problem.
还有，如果有的要求是不能被接受的就用不着再提出这种要求了。我说的就是一次性大幅重估人民币。
另外，我要向其他读者指出中国拥有的美国债务只占美国债务总数的不到5%。所以即使美国没和中国借到钱他也有办法解决这个问题。
Recommend (55)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SunT wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:14 GMT
The money could be spent as partial compensation for all the technology and IP stolen and being stolen by the Chinese.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-china-usa-cyberespionage-id...
这些钱应该拿来补偿中国人已经偷取和正在偷取的技术和知识产权（的损失），（即使这样也只能补偿）一部分。
Recommend (47)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lpc1998 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 2:44 GMT
At US$3 trillion, China's foreign reserves looks huge, but it works out to be only US$2,150 per capita which is lesser than many other countries'. Moreover, China's external debts rose exponentially in recent years hitting US$550 billion by the end of 2010. So the actual net foreign reserves is much lesser.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/2011/03/31/chinas-external-debt-nears-550-bil...
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=dt_dod_dect_cd&idim=count...
说到3万亿美元，中国的外汇储备看上去很多，实际每个人只有2150美元，这低于很多国家的水平。还有，中国的外债近年来成倍增加，在2010年已经达到了5500亿美元。所以实际的外汇储备比看上去的要少。
China's soaring external debts in the midst of rapidly increasing foreign reserves appear counter-intuitive. However, they are the consequences of many Chinese companies borrowing in foreign currencies and depositing them in the Chinese banks in exchange for RMB in expectation of making substantial gains from the appreciation of RMB against the foreign currencies. This is one manifestation of the intrinsic weakness of the world's major currencies.
中国飙升的外债在迅速增长的外汇储备的映衬下看上去挺不真实的。但是这就是很多中国公司借贷外汇再把外汇抵押给中国银行兑换成人民币以期在人民币对外汇升值的过程中持续获利的后果呢。这就是世界主要货币固有弱点的一个体现。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave222 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:38 GMT
Manhattan sure has gone up in value. 60 guilders of beads?
曼哈顿毫无疑问当然是升值了。60荷兰盾的小玩物*？
【60 guilders of beads 60荷兰盾的小玩物：1626年荷兰殖民者以价值60荷兰盾(相当于24美元)的一些小玩物从印第安人手中购买了“曼哈顿”作为贸易站，称之为“新阿姆斯特丹”。事后印第安人大呼“曼哈顿”(意为“受骗了”)。“曼哈顿”的名字即源于此。1664年英王查理二世的弟弟约克公爵成了这块土地的主人，改称“新约克”(New York)(英国有约克郡)即纽约。】
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ari g wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:31 GMT
Everybody wants to get their filthy hands on Chinese money. The money rightfully belongs to the average Chinese. They had worked worked and sacrificed tremendously, earning below what they ought to have been entitled to in terms of a fair day's wage for a fair day's work. Beijing should return part (at least 30%) of the gains from this huge reserves to every Chinese above 18 years of age. The average Chinese citizen had been living beneath their means subsidising the rich In China, America and Europe. It's about time, Socialist China lives up to its name and make the next Spring festival a memorable festival with dividends to the Chinese citizen "shareholders" of "China Inc.", backdating to 2009 and 2010.
每个家伙都想把他们肮脏的手伸向中国人的钱包。这笔钱理所应当属于普通的中国大众。他们努力工作并且做出极大牺牲，而他们拿到的收入却低于按照“诚实工作得公平工资”的原则所应得的数字。对于由这个巨大储备而得到的收益，北京政府应该返还部分（至少30%）给每一个18岁以上的中国人。普通的中国公民们生活在他们的手段下补助着中国、美国和欧洲的富人们。是时候了，社会主义中国要不愧于自己的名字，让下一个春节变成一个值得纪念的节日——让中国公民也成为“中国公司”的“股东”获得分红收益，这期限回溯到2009和2010年。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Varun GuptaIndia wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:18 GMT
How about using these reserves to improve the countryside and the rural and poor population.
How about China finally lets its currency float - a fixed rate regime would mean dollars accumulation would go on and the world would keep suffering the imbalances.
用这些储备用来改善帮助农村以及贫困人口怎么样？
中国最后放任货币浮动怎么样？——一个固定汇率制度就意味着美元的堆积会继续，并且让世界受失衡的折磨。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mac maRtin wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:34 GMT
Please Do not refer the group of Spain, Greece, Portugal, ireland as "PIGS". It is quite offensive. Thank you
请不要把西班牙、希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰归类称呼为“笨猪四国”，这实在很辱人不快。谢谢。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freak on a Mountain wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:23 GMT
They're going to invest it on infrastructure. Trust me on this. The money's going to go to migrant workers building subway lines and highways. There's still the convertability problem, but all those dollars are building railways and riverways and ports. Oh, and solar panels and windmills, and your usual bureaucratic nonsense that gets in the way, but it's going to infrastructure in China, mostly. Thank God almighty that the Chinese haven't gotten that heavily into weapons manufacturing; otherwise the whole world would be full of cheap plastic AK-74s.
他们打算把这钱投资在基础设施上。这一点请相信我。钱会话给民工们去建设地铁和高速路。兑换性问题仍然存在，但所有这些美元都在建设铁路、河道以及港口。对了，还有太阳能电站和风力电站。还有，你们常说的官僚政治什么的废话的确会挡点道，但大多数钱还是流向了基础设施。感谢万能的上帝，中国人没有大量投资在武器制造上；否则这个世界会充斥着廉价的塑料AK-74冲锋枪*。
【AK-74：大名鼎鼎的AK-47的升级版，译者不清楚他是专门指这个型号，还是47的笔误。AK-47及其各种改型是全世界流传最广的枪族，廉价实用杀伤力大，即使是儿童在最恶劣的使用环境下也能正常开火，常见于第三世界国家和非正规军、恐怖组织。这里译者要注明一下，一是AK-74的确有部分部件是塑料制的；二是中国制造的AK-47枪族已经行销全球了，包括美国国内……】
Recommend (24)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
nschomer wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:53 GMT
@AphexTriplet"when you get to figures like that it's just a number."
I think that's sort of the point of this article, China has a lot of U.S. "dollars", which in reality means it has nothing, just a string of digits in a computer someplace of questionable actual value. In fact with the recent quantitative easings the U.S.government has demonstrated that even the number itself is subject to whimsical change. A lot of people complain that this was the government "printing a bunch of new money", but the reality is even more scary - they didn't print a single new bill, they just decided that certain bank accounts, with their permission, could go ahead and add another 0 or two. Sort of undercuts this whole mutually shared illusion of the value of floating currency, don't it.
In any case China is getting stuck with the bill as the U.S. comes to inevitable conclusion that the choices for shinking our debt are either A. A sound fiscal policy based on shared sacrifice and responsible cuts in spending paired with unpopular tax hikes, or, B. Inflation.
I don't think it will be hard to choose the winner on that count.
回复AphexTriplet
“但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。”
我想这在就是本文的观点之一。中国有很多“美元”，但实际上它什么也没有，只不过是存在计算机里使用价值存疑的一串数字罢了。实际上，考虑到近来美国政府一系列的定量宽松*，即便是这个数字本身也手浮动变化的影响。许多人抱怨这就是政府在“印大堆大堆的钱”，但事实却是更加惊人——他们不是印刷新的纸币，他们只不过仗着他们的权限，来决定让银行账号继续增大，在数字后面加上一两个零。这样的降价竞争完全是相互地分享了对浮动货币价值的虚幻观念【这一句译者不是太确定，请指点】，不是么？
无论如何，中国被这账单套牢了，而美国必然会得出结论：要想缩减我们的债务只有俩选项，要么就选项A，一个稳健的财政政策，这要基于共担的牺牲和责任，减少花销并配上不受欢迎的加税；要么就选项B，通胀。
我不认为选出这道单选题的答案会很难。
【quantitative easing “定量宽松”政策，实际上就是加大货币发行量，以放松（ease）借贷环境，属于扩张性的货币政策。具体而言，就是由央行发行一定量的新货币，然后用它在公开市场买入政府债券；银行把债券卖给央行后就有了更多的现金，就可以向外贷款。西方一些经济学家认为，所谓“定量宽松”政策，其实就是央行开动印钞机器的一种委婉说法，这一政策经常在银行利率已经降无可降的情况下采用。“定量宽松”政策的目的是为了促进贷款发放，企业增加投资，从而推动就业率的上升和经济的增长。】
Recommend (22)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrates76 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:01 GMT
This is exactly what I've been saying. China's geniuses socked away all this money but they can't spend it without putting even more pressure on the RMB, it amounts to a bunch of worthless IOUs while American corporations hold the actual dollars thanks to cheap labour and the West's greed for cheap crap.
这个恰恰就是我所说的。中国的精英天才们积攒了这些财富，但他们却不能在不给人民币施压的前提下花销这笔钱。它们只不过是一堆没价值的借条，而对亏了低价劳动力以及西方对廉价垃圾的贪婪，美国的公司持有了实际的美元
Any harm the communist government thinks it can do to foreign countries by tanking a currency, will ultimately come back and hit them even harder. American economy "collapses" and China's won't be far behind.
这个共产党政府所想的通过货币所能带给外国的任何伤害，最终都会反馈回去，且对他们伤害得更深。美国经济“崩溃”了那么中国也很快会步其后尘。
Recommend (19)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AphexTriplet wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:04 GMT
I don't know if it's the same for anyone else, but when you get to figures like that it's just a number.
我不知道其他人是否也这样，但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。
Recommend (17)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aly-Khan Satchu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:06 GMT
Who has the Dollars? Hu does. In a c21st World, Where nearly Everyone is a 'Busted Flush', it makes the Creditor ever more powerful You said 'China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price' is in many ways a Narrative Fallacy about China. China can simply crater practically any Asset if they so choose. To assume they won't, seems a very poor Risk-Adjusted Position to be clinging to.
哪个有美刀？胡哥有美刀【英文里的“谁”who和“胡”hu谐音】。在现在这21世纪，几乎人人都是“同花却不顺”*，这就使得债主们更有势利了。你所说的“中国可以出价买下几乎任何物品——但若以现价那几乎什么也买不到”，这对中国来说在许多方面都是自说自话的叙事谬误**。只要中国决定了，他们可以轻易实际坑下任何资产。谁要是假设他们不买，那看起来他就是死守着极糟糕的风险评估态度。
【*'Busted Flush同花却不顺。原意出自扑克，指握了一手同花的牌，很有机会同花顺的，最后没顺失败了。后来引申为开始有很大潜力但结果没有价值。
** Narrative Fallacy叙事谬误，就算周围环境中的所有事件都是随机的，我们也能讲出有头有尾的故事来阐述因果关系。】
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi
http://rich.co.ke
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MorallyBankrupt wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:58 GMT
Uhm, FX reserves are just that, reserves. They can't be "spent." They can be swapped for other assets that can be kept as reserves, but they are not a piggy bank. They are just something on the asset side of a CB balance sheet. Would it be wise to invest them properly? Yes. but they can't just buy illiquid assets with them. Those reserves are what is used to defend currencies when liquidity crises spill-over to FX markets. they are vital to keeping FX markets in range and must be kept liquid.
嗯，外汇储备也就仅仅是“储备”。它们不可以拿来“花”的。它们可以交换成其他能作为储备的财产，但却不是存钱罐。它们只不过是央行财务状况表里“资产”一栏里的条目而已。 用它们来适当投资明智吗？明智。但是不能用来买非流动资产。这些储备是在外汇市场流动性危机溢出之时，用来保卫货币的。他们对确保外汇市场受控至关重要，而且必须保持流动。
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lesterliu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:12 GMT
i dont know but can u hostile takeover IBM Apple? what about BP, Rio Tinto. Will FIRB approve these kind of takeovers? The chances are not.
Can you put a monetary values on the best universities, Think tank ect...
China has money, but those things worthing buying are not on the market.
humm how do you solve this.. any takers?
我不明白，但是你可以对IBM、苹果搞恶意收购吗？那BP石油公司*、力拓**怎么样？外资审查委员会能批准这样的收购？没有可能性。
你可以为最好的大学、智库等等标价么？
中国是有钱，但那些值得花钱买的，却无价也无市。
嗯，你怎么解决这问题？有人接招吗？
【*BP石油公司（British Petroleum)，英国石油集团公司。BP是世界上最大的石油和石化集团公司之一。由前英国石油、阿莫科、阿科和嘉实多等公司整合重组形成。公司的主要业务是油气勘探开发；炼油；天然气销售和发电；油品零售和运输；以及石油化工产品生产和销售。
**力拓（Rio Tinto）：世界第三大矿业公司，为世界第二大铁矿石生产商，在中国的市场占有率为第一。
*** FIRB澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会， (Foreign Investment Review Board)成立于1976年，负责向财长提供政府外资政策和执行的咨询。财长享有外国投资政策制定及外国投资项目的审批权。】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:01 GMT
@ reconst - good idea, but considering the value of that purchase, the Chinese still have $1,999,999,999,999.99 trillion in change
Perhaps the economist should have made comparisons to purchasing assets of developing countries, or investments to uplift developing countries. With that kind of money China could easily upgrade most developing countries into (at least) middle income, which could be a good investment when those middle income countries turn around and buy more Chinese products.
But that is just me dreaming. China has no intention of uplifting developing countries....
回复reconst
好主意，但是考虑到这项采购的价值，中国仍然握有1.999 999 999 999 99万亿。
也许经济学人应该做个对比：购买发展中国家的资产，或者投资来促进提升发展中国家。有这样大量的钱，中国可以轻易地把大多数发展中国家提升到（至少是）中等收入的水平，而这会是很好的投资，届时那些中等收入的国家会反过来购买更多的中国产品。
但这只是我的梦想而已。中国没有意愿去帮助提升发展中国家……
【我怎么想起了，捐赠的羊羔被直接吃掉的路边社小谣言……TG出门自带施工队的传统可不是闲得想为航运公司做贡献啊】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:06 GMT
@ ari g - and then one could open the window and watch the pigs fly bye (no offense Mac maRtin). China socialist? It is only socialist when it suits the government. In fact it is only 'anything' when it suits them. Right now China is a dictatorship arresting free speech activists, but tomorrow they will tell us they are communist and the next day capitalist and the next day anti-imperialist and the next day.....
回复ari g
到那时你可以打开窗然后看见猪在天上飞（不是在冒犯 Mac martin*）。
中国，社会主义者？只有当配合政府时才算是社会主义者；实际上只要配合政府，它可以被叫做任何主义者。当下，中国就是个独裁政权，压迫自由发言的活跃分子；但到了明天，他们会自称是共产主义者；到了后天，是资本主义者；大后天，是反帝国主义者；再后一天……
【*Mac martin是前面的一个读者，他觉得把葡萄牙、爱尔兰等四国称作“笨猪”四国是一个冒犯的说法】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wayne Bernard wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:57 GMT
Not only is China sitting on a pile of cash, they are sitting on a massive pile of gold as shown here:
中国不止是攒了一堆的现金，他们还攒了大堆的黄金，看看这里：
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/10/china-and-their-gigantic-pi...
Recommend (14)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stratofile wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:25 GMT
such amount of kept money is like to WMD and it will make huge problems to the entire world. Also,Chinas government can sink USA economics and it will lead us to destruction of global economics!
如此巨量的钱抓在手里，就和大杀器*一样啊，它会给整个世界造成极大问题。而且，中国政府可以击沉美国经济，并将领着我们走向全球经济的毁灭。
【*WMD weapon of mass destruction 大规模杀伤性武器，指用来大规模屠杀的武器，一般针对的是平民，但是也可以针对军事人员。它包括三类武器：核武器（包括放射性武器）、化学武器、生物武器。】
Recommend (13)中文标题:三万亿大款，伤不起啊 原文标题:Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
译文信息
发布人:solar115 协作:康康Tainy 发布日期：2011-05-14 17:56:34 原文国家:英国 阅读:5390 评论:37条
来源:
来源连接:http://www.economist.com/node/18560525
导读: 都说人怕出名猪怕壮，不怕贼偷就怕贼惦记。世界看中国是不是就好像在看着一只大如火星的烤乳猪……
前言：中国的外汇是个世界性蛋糕+世界级难题；三万亿大款，你伤不起啊。有国内砖家说，中国的外汇因为升值损失了2711亿美元。而在国外，盯着中国这笔钱的眼睛，不说多如牛毛，起码也多如兔毛，不妨看看《经济学人》的国外砖家们流着口水说要怎么花这笔钱。《经济学人》的读者评论一向是亮点，我们按推荐数排序，翻译了第一页所有评论，后面的评论推荐数只有个位数的就不翻译了。
特别感谢康康Tainy的合作翻译。黑色是原文，蓝色是译文，红色是注释。有翻译不当的地方，Solar先道歉了，还请各位指点。
China's foreign reserves
Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?
Window-shopping with China’s central bank
中国的外汇储备
谁想过把万亿大款的瘾？
那就陪着中国央行来次扫街吧?
【window-shopping：只看不买的逛街】
图：梦幻血拼：
今年石油的总产量 3.41万亿美元；
美国农田1.87万亿；
“笨猪”四国*主权债务：1.51万亿美元；
货币黄金**：1.43万亿美元；
苹果微软IBM和古狗：9160亿美元；
美国军事装备：4140亿美元；
曼哈顿不动产：2870亿美元；
华盛顿不动产：2320亿美元；
50支最贵的运动俱乐部：500亿美元
【*笨猪四国：葡萄牙(Portugal)、意大利(Italy)、希腊(Greece)、西班牙(Spain)四国英文首字母接成一个词，正好是“PIGS”(群猪)，于是，将陷入债务危机中这四个国家称为“笨猪四国”，如果加上爱尔兰（Ireland）就是PIIGS，笨猪五国。
**货币黄金是一国货币当局所持有的货币性黄金。货币性黄金的交易仅在不同国家的货币当局之间或货币当局与国际货币基金组织之间进行。】
BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.
截止去年年底，中国的外汇储备已经有2.85万亿美元了。虽然中国在今年第一季度很稀罕地入超了，但4月14日中国央行发布的最新数据显示他们的外汇储备在3月底已经飙过了3万亿美元。
China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.
中国的央行有的是钱，但没啥想象力。它的外汇储备里，划了巨大的一块投在无聊的美国国债上。这意味着它可以指望着把自己美元捞回来。但是，如果美国败给了通胀或者贬值，那中国就要为这些美元能值多少而头疼了。
So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.
那么，中国拿着这笔钱还能干嘛？抛去美元，中国也许会迷恋上欧元。中国可以一气买下西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊四国所有未偿还的主权债券，瞬间解决欧元区的债务危机*。而且中国仍然还能剩余近一半的储备在手。
【译者注：欧元区债务危机：2009年12月，全球三大评级公司标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级，此后欧洲多个国家也开始陷入危机，“欧猪五国 PIIGS”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)的信用评级被调低，经济下滑，债台高筑，整个欧洲面临严峻考验。2010年5月10日，欧盟27国财长被迫决定设立总额为7500亿欧元的救助机制，帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国，防止危机继续蔓延。危机至今还在困扰着欧洲。】
It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.
中国也可以换个方向，选择抛开所有债券去炒股。中国可以用不到一万亿美元一口吞下苹果、微软、IBM和古狗*。它也可以学学中东油霸和俄国寡头买买英超俱乐部**。根据《福布斯》***杂志，去年全球价值最高的前50个运动俱乐部总值504亿美元，还不到中国外汇储备的2% .
【译者注：*苹果Apple，4月20日市值3154.5亿美元；微软Microsoft，4月20日市值2164.5亿美元；IBM，4月20日市值2009.2亿美元；古狗Google4月20日市值1690.3亿美元。四家公司总市值是9018.5亿美元。
**俄罗斯富豪阿布拉莫维奇在2003年买下英超切尔西俱乐部，至今总投入超过4.5亿英镑；阿布扎比联合集团2008年买下英超曼城俱乐部，至今总投入超过5.7亿英镑。
***《福布斯》Forbes为双周刊杂志，每期刊登60多篇对公司和公司经营者的评论性文章，被誉为“美国经济的晴雨表”。】
Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?
国际富豪们还青睐于投资在不动产上。也许中国应该买下一些曼哈顿的尊贵房产。诶，干嘛不买下整个曼哈顿呢？按照纽约市政府的说法，整个岛可征税的房产总之也就仅仅2870亿美元而已。而华盛顿特区的房产只值区区2320亿美元。中国已经习惯当华盛顿*的债主了，何不干脆直接当地主算了？
【*华盛顿，此处双关，指美国。前面的华盛顿特区Washington, D.C是首都，总面积177平方公里。】
China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.
中国也可以减轻他们对能源、食物和军事安全的焦虑。三万亿美元可以买下今年全球石油总供应量的88% .在美国大陆买下所有农田（包括农场建筑）仅仅需要1.86万亿美元（2009年的价格）。而中国理论上可以买下美国的整个国防部，根据国防部的2010年资产报表，它的财产总值是1.9万亿美元。而且这个数据中很大部分还是土地、建筑物和投资所值；那些枪啊炮啊坦克啊啥啥的军事装备其实只值4137亿美元罢了。
These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.
以上这些琐细无厘头的计算，反映了中国外汇储备规模之巨大，但同时也说明了中国在投资多样化时所面对的巨大困难。任何一项购置交易，只要规模大到足以确保得到中国的关注，就也会引发市场为之而动荡。中国可以报价买下几乎任何东西——但想用现价那基本上什么也买不到。
评论翻译
reconst wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:12 GMT
China should buy The Economist.
中国就该买下经济学人。
Recommend (195)PermalinkReport abuse 【推荐数195，下同】
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ghaliban wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:10 GMT
"China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice"
I know you're only trying to illustrate the scale of the numbers involved light-heartedly, but just to note that China buying the outstanding debt of the PIGS will not solve their debt crisis. It would only change the identity of their creditors.
“中国可以买下所有西班牙，爱尔兰，葡萄牙还有希腊未偿还的主权债券。立即解决欧元区的债务危机。”
我想你只是在说明了（中国外汇）数量有多大，但是还是要注意即使中国购买了欧猪四国的未偿还债务，欧猪的危机还是没解决。只不过债务的债权人更换了而已。
Recommend (68)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yongke wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:05 GMT
Even the Chinese (me included) realise that at this point, forex are just numbers on papers. I don't think the Chinese government want to lend to the US anymore than the US want to borrow from China. Yet it is necessary to current keep the economy going.
So there is no need to preach, everyone (including the Chinese) are already on the same page. You just have to be patient while it is being fixed.
即使是中国人（包括我自己）也明白外汇只是纸上的数字而已。我认为与美国想向中国借钱的意愿相比中国不政府不是那么愿意把钱借给美国。但是保持现在的经济增长还是必要的。
所以啊不用宣讲了。每个人（包括中国人）都已经在这个问题（指外汇）上达成共识，你们只是不得不耐心等待一切好转。
Also, certain options are not acceptable so it's pointless to demand them. Specifically I am talking about a large one-time re-eva luation of the Chinese Yuan.
Also also, may I point out to other readers that the Chinese holding on US debt is less than 5% of the entire US debt holdings. So even if the US default on China's loans, it will not solve their problem.
还有，如果有的要求是不能被接受的就用不着再提出这种要求了。我说的就是一次性大幅重估人民币。
另外，我要向其他读者指出中国拥有的美国债务只占美国债务总数的不到5%。所以即使美国没和中国借到钱他也有办法解决这个问题。
Recommend (55)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SunT wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:14 GMT
The money could be spent as partial compensation for all the technology and IP stolen and being stolen by the Chinese.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-china-usa-cyberespionage-id...
这些钱应该拿来补偿中国人已经偷取和正在偷取的技术和知识产权（的损失），（即使这样也只能补偿）一部分。
Recommend (47)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lpc1998 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 2:44 GMT
At US$3 trillion, China's foreign reserves looks huge, but it works out to be only US$2,150 per capita which is lesser than many other countries'. Moreover, China's external debts rose exponentially in recent years hitting US$550 billion by the end of 2010. So the actual net foreign reserves is much lesser.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/2011/03/31/chinas-external-debt-nears-550-bil...
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=dt_dod_dect_cd&idim=count...
说到3万亿美元，中国的外汇储备看上去很多，实际每个人只有2150美元，这低于很多国家的水平。还有，中国的外债近年来成倍增加，在2010年已经达到了5500亿美元。所以实际的外汇储备比看上去的要少。
China's soaring external debts in the midst of rapidly increasing foreign reserves appear counter-intuitive. However, they are the consequences of many Chinese companies borrowing in foreign currencies and depositing them in the Chinese banks in exchange for RMB in expectation of making substantial gains from the appreciation of RMB against the foreign currencies. This is one manifestation of the intrinsic weakness of the world's major currencies.
中国飙升的外债在迅速增长的外汇储备的映衬下看上去挺不真实的。但是这就是很多中国公司借贷外汇再把外汇抵押给中国银行兑换成人民币以期在人民币对外汇升值的过程中持续获利的后果呢。这就是世界主要货币固有弱点的一个体现。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave222 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:38 GMT
Manhattan sure has gone up in value. 60 guilders of beads?
曼哈顿毫无疑问当然是升值了。60荷兰盾的小玩物*？
【60 guilders of beads 60荷兰盾的小玩物：1626年荷兰殖民者以价值60荷兰盾(相当于24美元)的一些小玩物从印第安人手中购买了“曼哈顿”作为贸易站，称之为“新阿姆斯特丹”。事后印第安人大呼“曼哈顿”(意为“受骗了”)。“曼哈顿”的名字即源于此。1664年英王查理二世的弟弟约克公爵成了这块土地的主人，改称“新约克”(New York)(英国有约克郡)即纽约。】
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ari g wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:31 GMT
Everybody wants to get their filthy hands on Chinese money. The money rightfully belongs to the average Chinese. They had worked worked and sacrificed tremendously, earning below what they ought to have been entitled to in terms of a fair day's wage for a fair day's work. Beijing should return part (at least 30%) of the gains from this huge reserves to every Chinese above 18 years of age. The average Chinese citizen had been living beneath their means subsidising the rich In China, America and Europe. It's about time, Socialist China lives up to its name and make the next Spring festival a memorable festival with dividends to the Chinese citizen "shareholders" of "China Inc.", backdating to 2009 and 2010.
每个家伙都想把他们肮脏的手伸向中国人的钱包。这笔钱理所应当属于普通的中国大众。他们努力工作并且做出极大牺牲，而他们拿到的收入却低于按照“诚实工作得公平工资”的原则所应得的数字。对于由这个巨大储备而得到的收益，北京政府应该返还部分（至少30%）给每一个18岁以上的中国人。普通的中国公民们生活在他们的手段下补助着中国、美国和欧洲的富人们。是时候了，社会主义中国要不愧于自己的名字，让下一个春节变成一个值得纪念的节日——让中国公民也成为“中国公司”的“股东”获得分红收益，这期限回溯到2009和2010年。
Recommend (37)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Varun GuptaIndia wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:18 GMT
How about using these reserves to improve the countryside and the rural and poor population.
How about China finally lets its currency float - a fixed rate regime would mean dollars accumulation would go on and the world would keep suffering the imbalances.
用这些储备用来改善帮助农村以及贫困人口怎么样？
中国最后放任货币浮动怎么样？——一个固定汇率制度就意味着美元的堆积会继续，并且让世界受失衡的折磨。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mac maRtin wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:34 GMT
Please Do not refer the group of Spain, Greece, Portugal, ireland as "PIGS". It is quite offensive. Thank you
请不要把西班牙、希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰归类称呼为“笨猪四国”，这实在很辱人不快。谢谢。
Recommend (25)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Freak on a Mountain wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:23 GMT
They're going to invest it on infrastructure. Trust me on this. The money's going to go to migrant workers building subway lines and highways. There's still the convertability problem, but all those dollars are building railways and riverways and ports. Oh, and solar panels and windmills, and your usual bureaucratic nonsense that gets in the way, but it's going to infrastructure in China, mostly. Thank God almighty that the Chinese haven't gotten that heavily into weapons manufacturing; otherwise the whole world would be full of cheap plastic AK-74s.
他们打算把这钱投资在基础设施上。这一点请相信我。钱会话给民工们去建设地铁和高速路。兑换性问题仍然存在，但所有这些美元都在建设铁路、河道以及港口。对了，还有太阳能电站和风力电站。还有，你们常说的官僚政治什么的废话的确会挡点道，但大多数钱还是流向了基础设施。感谢万能的上帝，中国人没有大量投资在武器制造上；否则这个世界会充斥着廉价的塑料AK-74冲锋枪*。
【AK-74：大名鼎鼎的AK-47的升级版，译者不清楚他是专门指这个型号，还是47的笔误。AK-47及其各种改型是全世界流传最广的枪族，廉价实用杀伤力大，即使是儿童在最恶劣的使用环境下也能正常开火，常见于第三世界国家和非正规军、恐怖组织。这里译者要注明一下，一是AK-74的确有部分部件是塑料制的；二是中国制造的AK-47枪族已经行销全球了，包括美国国内……】
Recommend (24)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
nschomer wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:53 GMT
@AphexTriplet"when you get to figures like that it's just a number."
I think that's sort of the point of this article, China has a lot of U.S. "dollars", which in reality means it has nothing, just a string of digits in a computer someplace of questionable actual value. In fact with the recent quantitative easings the U.S.government has demonstrated that even the number itself is subject to whimsical change. A lot of people complain that this was the government "printing a bunch of new money", but the reality is even more scary - they didn't print a single new bill, they just decided that certain bank accounts, with their permission, could go ahead and add another 0 or two. Sort of undercuts this whole mutually shared illusion of the value of floating currency, don't it.
In any case China is getting stuck with the bill as the U.S. comes to inevitable conclusion that the choices for shinking our debt are either A. A sound fiscal policy based on shared sacrifice and responsible cuts in spending paired with unpopular tax hikes, or, B. Inflation.
I don't think it will be hard to choose the winner on that count.
回复AphexTriplet
“但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。”
我想这在就是本文的观点之一。中国有很多“美元”，但实际上它什么也没有，只不过是存在计算机里使用价值存疑的一串数字罢了。实际上，考虑到近来美国政府一系列的定量宽松*，即便是这个数字本身也手浮动变化的影响。许多人抱怨这就是政府在“印大堆大堆的钱”，但事实却是更加惊人——他们不是印刷新的纸币，他们只不过仗着他们的权限，来决定让银行账号继续增大，在数字后面加上一两个零。这样的降价竞争完全是相互地分享了对浮动货币价值的虚幻观念【这一句译者不是太确定，请指点】，不是么？
无论如何，中国被这账单套牢了，而美国必然会得出结论：要想缩减我们的债务只有俩选项，要么就选项A，一个稳健的财政政策，这要基于共担的牺牲和责任，减少花销并配上不受欢迎的加税；要么就选项B，通胀。
我不认为选出这道单选题的答案会很难。
【quantitative easing “定量宽松”政策，实际上就是加大货币发行量，以放松（ease）借贷环境，属于扩张性的货币政策。具体而言，就是由央行发行一定量的新货币，然后用它在公开市场买入政府债券；银行把债券卖给央行后就有了更多的现金，就可以向外贷款。西方一些经济学家认为，所谓“定量宽松”政策，其实就是央行开动印钞机器的一种委婉说法，这一政策经常在银行利率已经降无可降的情况下采用。“定量宽松”政策的目的是为了促进贷款发放，企业增加投资，从而推动就业率的上升和经济的增长。】
Recommend (22)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrates76 wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:01 GMT
This is exactly what I've been saying. China's geniuses socked away all this money but they can't spend it without putting even more pressure on the RMB, it amounts to a bunch of worthless IOUs while American corporations hold the actual dollars thanks to cheap labour and the West's greed for cheap crap.
这个恰恰就是我所说的。中国的精英天才们积攒了这些财富，但他们却不能在不给人民币施压的前提下花销这笔钱。它们只不过是一堆没价值的借条，而对亏了低价劳动力以及西方对廉价垃圾的贪婪，美国的公司持有了实际的美元
Any harm the communist government thinks it can do to foreign countries by tanking a currency, will ultimately come back and hit them even harder. American economy "collapses" and China's won't be far behind.
这个共产党政府所想的通过货币所能带给外国的任何伤害，最终都会反馈回去，且对他们伤害得更深。美国经济“崩溃”了那么中国也很快会步其后尘。
Recommend (19)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AphexTriplet wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:04 GMT
I don't know if it's the same for anyone else, but when you get to figures like that it's just a number.
我不知道其他人是否也这样，但当你拥有的量到了如此大的程度，它也就仅仅是个数字罢了。
Recommend (17)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aly-Khan Satchu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 3:06 GMT
Who has the Dollars? Hu does. In a c21st World, Where nearly Everyone is a 'Busted Flush', it makes the Creditor ever more powerful You said 'China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price' is in many ways a Narrative Fallacy about China. China can simply crater practically any Asset if they so choose. To assume they won't, seems a very poor Risk-Adjusted Position to be clinging to.
哪个有美刀？胡哥有美刀【英文里的“谁”who和“胡”hu谐音】。在现在这21世纪，几乎人人都是“同花却不顺”*，这就使得债主们更有势利了。你所说的“中国可以出价买下几乎任何物品——但若以现价那几乎什么也买不到”，这对中国来说在许多方面都是自说自话的叙事谬误**。只要中国决定了，他们可以轻易实际坑下任何资产。谁要是假设他们不买，那看起来他就是死守着极糟糕的风险评估态度。
【*'Busted Flush同花却不顺。原意出自扑克，指握了一手同花的牌，很有机会同花顺的，最后没顺失败了。后来引申为开始有很大潜力但结果没有价值。
** Narrative Fallacy叙事谬误，就算周围环境中的所有事件都是随机的，我们也能讲出有头有尾的故事来阐述因果关系。】
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi
http://rich.co.ke
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MorallyBankrupt wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:58 GMT
Uhm, FX reserves are just that, reserves. They can't be "spent." They can be swapped for other assets that can be kept as reserves, but they are not a piggy bank. They are just something on the asset side of a CB balance sheet. Would it be wise to invest them properly? Yes. but they can't just buy illiquid assets with them. Those reserves are what is used to defend currencies when liquidity crises spill-over to FX markets. they are vital to keeping FX markets in range and must be kept liquid.
嗯，外汇储备也就仅仅是“储备”。它们不可以拿来“花”的。它们可以交换成其他能作为储备的财产，但却不是存钱罐。它们只不过是央行财务状况表里“资产”一栏里的条目而已。 用它们来适当投资明智吗？明智。但是不能用来买非流动资产。这些储备是在外汇市场流动性危机溢出之时，用来保卫货币的。他们对确保外汇市场受控至关重要，而且必须保持流动。
Recommend (16)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lesterliu wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:12 GMT
i dont know but can u hostile takeover IBM Apple? what about BP, Rio Tinto. Will FIRB approve these kind of takeovers? The chances are not.
Can you put a monetary values on the best universities, Think tank ect...
China has money, but those things worthing buying are not on the market.
humm how do you solve this.. any takers?
我不明白，但是你可以对IBM、苹果搞恶意收购吗？那BP石油公司*、力拓**怎么样？外资审查委员会能批准这样的收购？没有可能性。
你可以为最好的大学、智库等等标价么？
中国是有钱，但那些值得花钱买的，却无价也无市。
嗯，你怎么解决这问题？有人接招吗？
【*BP石油公司（British Petroleum)，英国石油集团公司。BP是世界上最大的石油和石化集团公司之一。由前英国石油、阿莫科、阿科和嘉实多等公司整合重组形成。公司的主要业务是油气勘探开发；炼油；天然气销售和发电；油品零售和运输；以及石油化工产品生产和销售。
**力拓（Rio Tinto）：世界第三大矿业公司，为世界第二大铁矿石生产商，在中国的市场占有率为第一。
*** FIRB澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会， (Foreign Investment Review Board)成立于1976年，负责向财长提供政府外资政策和执行的咨询。财长享有外国投资政策制定及外国投资项目的审批权。】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:01 GMT
@ reconst - good idea, but considering the value of that purchase, the Chinese still have $1,999,999,999,999.99 trillion in change
Perhaps the economist should have made comparisons to purchasing assets of developing countries, or investments to uplift developing countries. With that kind of money China could easily upgrade most developing countries into (at least) middle income, which could be a good investment when those middle income countries turn around and buy more Chinese products.
But that is just me dreaming. China has no intention of uplifting developing countries....
回复reconst
好主意，但是考虑到这项采购的价值，中国仍然握有1.999 999 999 999 99万亿。
也许经济学人应该做个对比：购买发展中国家的资产，或者投资来促进提升发展中国家。有这样大量的钱，中国可以轻易地把大多数发展中国家提升到（至少是）中等收入的水平，而这会是很好的投资，届时那些中等收入的国家会反过来购买更多的中国产品。
但这只是我的梦想而已。中国没有意愿去帮助提升发展中国家……
【我怎么想起了，捐赠的羊羔被直接吃掉的路边社小谣言……TG出门自带施工队的传统可不是闲得想为航运公司做贡献啊】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plen wrote: Apr 14th 2011 6:06 GMT
@ ari g - and then one could open the window and watch the pigs fly bye (no offense Mac maRtin). China socialist? It is only socialist when it suits the government. In fact it is only 'anything' when it suits them. Right now China is a dictatorship arresting free speech activists, but tomorrow they will tell us they are communist and the next day capitalist and the next day anti-imperialist and the next day.....
回复ari g
到那时你可以打开窗然后看见猪在天上飞（不是在冒犯 Mac martin*）。
中国，社会主义者？只有当配合政府时才算是社会主义者；实际上只要配合政府，它可以被叫做任何主义者。当下，中国就是个独裁政权，压迫自由发言的活跃分子；但到了明天，他们会自称是共产主义者；到了后天，是资本主义者；大后天，是反帝国主义者；再后一天……
【*Mac martin是前面的一个读者，他觉得把葡萄牙、爱尔兰等四国称作“笨猪”四国是一个冒犯的说法】
Recommend (15)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wayne Bernard wrote: Apr 14th 2011 4:57 GMT
Not only is China sitting on a pile of cash, they are sitting on a massive pile of gold as shown here:
中国不止是攒了一堆的现金，他们还攒了大堆的黄金，看看这里：
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/10/china-and-their-gigantic-pi...
Recommend (14)PermalinkReport abuse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stratofile wrote: Apr 14th 2011 5:25 GMT
such amount of kept money is like to WMD and it will make huge problems to the entire world. Also,Chinas government can sink USA economics and it will lead us to destruction of global economics!
如此巨量的钱抓在手里，就和大杀器*一样啊，它会给整个世界造成极大问题。而且，中国政府可以击沉美国经济，并将领着我们走向全球经济的毁灭。
【*WMD weapon of mass destruction 大规模杀伤性武器，指用来大规模屠杀的武器，一般针对的是平民，但是也可以针对军事人员。它包括三类武器：核武器（包括放射性武器）、化学武器、生物武器。】
Recommend (13)
摊手，老外就爱大惊小怪。其实TG根本只在意本国工业化程度深化到那种地步而已，目标是MD那一级别罢了。
只要有工业能力，其他啥的都是虚的啊啊啊啊。{:ya:}
只要有工业能力，其他啥的都是虚的啊啊啊啊。{:ya:}
钱是多了点，但是和中国的经济总量还是保持比例的。如果十二五规划实现，在配合人民币升值，中国Gdp将达到10万亿美元。不要和我扯什么Gdp无用论，那你找一个指标来代替它啊！
卖激素不？ 动不动就神马和谐激素，直要是呐们木有滴，介个东西有多少要多少。
外汇储备不是储蓄
这个钱是己经花了的
简单来说 有多少外汇储备 人民币就多印了多少
就是这些钱己经换成人民币在国内流通了的
拿来投资,赚了还好，如果亏了呢？？
如果那些外资准备撤资，你拿什么给别人？人民币？？
这个钱是己经花了的
简单来说 有多少外汇储备 人民币就多印了多少
就是这些钱己经换成人民币在国内流通了的
拿来投资,赚了还好，如果亏了呢？？
如果那些外资准备撤资，你拿什么给别人？人民币？？
工业才是王道，总有一天TG不想和这些西方杂碎生活在同一片天空下时，Tg的工业可以把整个TG搬到外星去。
GDP??咱两邻居，我请你老妈到我家当保姆，月薪1000，你又请我老妈到你家当保姆，月薪也是1000.然后这个月咱们为国家奉献的GDP。。。。翻倍了！！
学过经济没?GDP其实都一喙头，国家搞经济，真要重视GDP就输了，别看着新闻说GDP GDP神马神马，忽悠老外呢。。。咱TB是5000年的谋略化神级老祖，怎么发展有自己的一套、、、LZ，您别操心了
学过经济没?GDP其实都一喙头，国家搞经济，真要重视GDP就输了，别看着新闻说GDP GDP神马神马，忽悠老外呢。。。咱TB是5000年的谋略化神级老祖，怎么发展有自己的一套、、、LZ，您别操心了不懂经济的表示这说的都是啥子东西
不懂经济的表示这说的都是啥子东西
按照翟博士的观点，所谓外储就是外企在华利润的总和。
按照翟博士的观点，所谓外储就是外企在华利润的总和，只不过是由中国政府暂时代为保管。
a6292109 发表于 2011-5-15 13:38 ![]()
你举的这个例子就是拿钱买钱啊，恐怕除了你很少有这么蛋疼，如果你老妈给他家打扫卫生，他老妈给你家带孩子，术业有专攻，以最高的效率把活都干了，这在经济学上没意义？
你举的这个例子就是拿钱买钱啊，恐怕除了你很少有这么蛋疼，如果你老妈给他家打扫卫生，他老妈给你家带孩子，术业有专攻，以最高的效率把活都干了，这在经济学上没意义？