超级军网请教下2010印度gdp 的问题
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/26 17:34:52
确切的说是年增长速度的疑问，因为我在飞扬和cd都看到过说10年印度是10.4%，然后有人出来说那是个人博客的数据， 官方的是8.6%，还贴了些文章等等，我也baidu google下，却发现大都是对10年的估计数据，好像查到的也是8.6%，cia real gdp那个还是8%都不到。
请问高人真相到底是多少呢，或其官方公布的到底是10.4%还是8.6%？当然啦请照实说，不要偏见。 谢谢确切的说是年增长速度的疑问，因为我在飞扬和cd都看到过说10年印度是10.4%，然后有人出来说那是个人博客的数据， 官方的是8.6%，还贴了些文章等等，我也baidu google下，却发现大都是对10年的估计数据，好像查到的也是8.6%，cia real gdp那个还是8%都不到。
请问高人真相到底是多少呢，或其官方公布的到底是10.4%还是8.6%？当然啦请照实说，不要偏见。 谢谢
请问高人真相到底是多少呢，或其官方公布的到底是10.4%还是8.6%？当然啦请照实说，不要偏见。 谢谢确切的说是年增长速度的疑问，因为我在飞扬和cd都看到过说10年印度是10.4%，然后有人出来说那是个人博客的数据， 官方的是8.6%，还贴了些文章等等，我也baidu google下，却发现大都是对10年的估计数据，好像查到的也是8.6%，cia real gdp那个还是8%都不到。
请问高人真相到底是多少呢，或其官方公布的到底是10.4%还是8.6%？当然啦请照实说，不要偏见。 谢谢
介个问题由LX滴筒子告诉LZ。
算法不同吧?
确切的说是年增长速度的疑问，因为我在飞扬和cd都看到过说10年印度是10.4%，然后有人出来说那是个人博客的数 ...
pzkilo 发表于 2011-3-3 01:11
超大上面讨论经济问题是非常容易遇到断章取义的问题。
并不在于印度GDP增长多少。应该多看看汇率问题和印度通胀数据
确切的说是年增长速度的疑问，因为我在飞扬和cd都看到过说10年印度是10.4%，然后有人出来说那是个人博客的数 ...
pzkilo 发表于 2011-3-3 01:11
超大上面讨论经济问题是非常容易遇到断章取义的问题。
并不在于印度GDP增长多少。应该多看看汇率问题和印度通胀数据
印度现在增长势头很猛，而且人口红利比我国更大，人均年龄比我国年轻，以后威胁很大
按要素成本（factor cost）计算，2010年印度GDP实际增长是8.6%，按市场价格（market prices）计算，是10.4%。
在联合国1993年SNA中，以支出法核算的GDP计算公式如下：
GDP=
Household final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的住户最终消费支出）
+ NPI final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的非营利机构最终消费支出）
+ Government final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的政府最终消费支出）
+ Gross fixed capital formation at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的固定资本形成总额）
+ Acquisition less disposals of valuables at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的贵重物品净值）
+ Changes in inventories（存货增加）
+ Exports at purchasers’ prices at the frontier (f.o.b.)（以离岸采购者价格核算的货物和服务出口值）
- Imports valued f.o.b.（以离岸采购者价格核算的货物和服务进口值）
对以生产法核算的GDP计算公式提供了3种方法：
(a) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at producers’ prices（以生产者价格核算的增加值总额）
+ taxes, less subsidies, on imports（进口税减补贴）
+ non-deductible VAT;（非增值税抵扣）
(b) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at basic prices（以基本价格核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products（全部生产税减补贴）
(c) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at factor cost（以要素成本核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products;（全部生产税减补贴）
+ all other taxes, less subsidies, on production.（全部其他生产税减补贴）
In cases (b) and (c) the item taxes, less subsidies, on products includes taxes and subsidies on imports as well as on outputs.（其中b和c项中的生产税减补贴包括对进口和产出的税收和补贴）
印度官方公布的GDP增长率是生产法计算第三种里的增加值总额增长率，也就是“the sum of the gross values added at factor cost（以要素成本核算的增加值总额）”的增长率，而不是按市场价格计算的GDP增长率。
在联合国1993年SNA中，以支出法核算的GDP计算公式如下：
GDP=
Household final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的住户最终消费支出）
+ NPI final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的非营利机构最终消费支出）
+ Government final consumption expenditure at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的政府最终消费支出）
+ Gross fixed capital formation at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的固定资本形成总额）
+ Acquisition less disposals of valuables at purchasers’ prices（以采购者价格核算的贵重物品净值）
+ Changes in inventories（存货增加）
+ Exports at purchasers’ prices at the frontier (f.o.b.)（以离岸采购者价格核算的货物和服务出口值）
- Imports valued f.o.b.（以离岸采购者价格核算的货物和服务进口值）
对以生产法核算的GDP计算公式提供了3种方法：
(a) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at producers’ prices（以生产者价格核算的增加值总额）
+ taxes, less subsidies, on imports（进口税减补贴）
+ non-deductible VAT;（非增值税抵扣）
(b) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at basic prices（以基本价格核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products（全部生产税减补贴）
(c) GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at factor cost（以要素成本核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products;（全部生产税减补贴）
+ all other taxes, less subsidies, on production.（全部其他生产税减补贴）
In cases (b) and (c) the item taxes, less subsidies, on products includes taxes and subsidies on imports as well as on outputs.（其中b和c项中的生产税减补贴包括对进口和产出的税收和补贴）
印度官方公布的GDP增长率是生产法计算第三种里的增加值总额增长率，也就是“the sum of the gross values added at factor cost（以要素成本核算的增加值总额）”的增长率，而不是按市场价格计算的GDP增长率。
印度官方不公布以市场价格计算的GDP实际增长率，但会公布以市场价格按不变价格计算的实际GDP总量，所以其以市场价格计算的GDP实际增长率可以计算出来。
以往数十年里，印度的以要素成本计算的GDP增长率一般要高于以市场价格计算的GDP增长率一些，2009年也是，只是2010开始，通过修订二季度以市场价格计算的GDP不变价总量数据后，以要素成本计算的增长率要低于以市场价格计算的增长率1.8个百分点。
以往数十年里，印度的以要素成本计算的GDP增长率一般要高于以市场价格计算的GDP增长率一些，2009年也是，只是2010开始，通过修订二季度以市场价格计算的GDP不变价总量数据后，以要素成本计算的增长率要低于以市场价格计算的增长率1.8个百分点。
联合国1993年SNA推荐生产法GDP采用第二种方法：
GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at basic prices（以基本价格核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products（全部生产税减补贴）
大多数国家也是采用这种方法，但印度采用的是第三种方法，但只以增加值总额增速而不是GDP增速作为官方增速，中国则是主要根据第一种方法来计算，但不将税收单独核算。
联合国1993年SNA推荐生产法GDP采用第二种方法：
GDP =
the sum of the gross values added at basic prices（以基本价格核算的增加值总额）
+ all taxes, less subsidies, on products（全部生产税减补贴）
大多数国家也是采用这种方法，但印度采用的是第三种方法，但只以增加值总额增速而不是GDP增速作为官方增速，中国则是主要根据第一种方法来计算，但不将税收单独核算。
采用第三种方法的还有巴基斯坦，爱尔兰等国，但他们不像印度那样将增加值总额增速作为GDP增速，而是分别列出。
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 10:58 
人口素质差，根本不可能成为合格工人。
人口素质差，根本不可能成为合格工人。
notheal 发表于 2011-3-3 13:36
大侠真是博学多才，小弟以后这方面要拜您为师！
大侠真是博学多才，小弟以后这方面要拜您为师！
联合国1993年SNA中对增加值总额(gross value added) 和增加值净额(net value added)的定义和说明：
L. Gross and net value added (B.1)
1. Introduction
6.222. Value added is the balancing item in the production account for an institutional unit or sector, or establishment or industry. It measures the value created by production and may be calculated either before or after deducting the consumption of fixed capital on the fixed assets used. As stated above:
(a) Gross value added is defined as the value of output less the value of intermediate consumption;
(b) Net value added is defined as the value of output less the values of both intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed capital.
To avoid repetition, only gross value added will be cited in the following sections when the corresponding conclusions for net value added are obvious.
6.223. Gross value added is an unduplicated measure of output in which the values of the goods and services used as intermediate inputs are eliminated from the value of output. The production process itself can be described by a vector of the quantities of goods and services consumed or produced in which inputs carry a negative sign. By associating a price vector with this quantity vector, gross value added is obtained as the inner product of the two vectors.
Let q = the vector of quantities consumed or produced
p = the vector of prices
Then
gross value added = pq
Alternative measures of gross value added may be obtained by combining different price vectors with a single quantity vector. For example, gross value added may be measured using the prices of some other time period or some other country. However, the price and quantity vectors are not independent of each other. The technology used - i.e., the particular production process selected - is itself influenced by the relative input and output prices confronting the producer. The quantities therefore depend on the prices. A process which is economically efficient and profitable at one set of prices may cease to be so at another and would, therefore, not be used at those prices. For this reason, figures of gross value added obtained by revaluing the quantities at very different sets of relative prices may have little economic significance and may even become negative.
2. Alternative measures of value added
6.225. As indicated above, alternative measures of gross value added may be obtained by associating different price vectors with a given vector of input and output quantities. The various measures which may be derived using the different sets of prices recognized in the System are considered below.
Gross value added at basic prices
6.226. Gross value added at basic prices is defined as output valued at basic prices less intermediate consumption valued at purchasers’ prices. Although the outputs and inputs are valued using different sets of prices, for brevity the value added is described by the prices used to value the outputs. From the point of view of the producer, purchasers’ prices for inputs and basic prices for outputs represent the prices actually paid and received. Their use leads to a measure of gross value added which is particularly relevant for the producer. The resulting measure has also some convenient properties for aggregation purposes as explained later, although there is no named aggregate in the System which corresponds to the sum of the gross values added of all enterprises measured at basic prices.
Gross value added at producers’ prices
6.227. Gross value added at producers’ prices is defined as output valued at producers’ prices less intermediate consumption valued at purchasers’ prices. As already explained, in the absence of VAT, the total value of the intermediate inputs consumed is the same whether they are valued at producers’ or at purchasers’ prices, in which case this measure of gross value added is the same as one which uses producers’ prices to value both inputs and outputs. It is an economically meaningful measure that is equivalent to the traditional measure of gross value added at market prices. However, in the presence of VAT, the producer’s price excludes invoiced VAT, and it would be inappropriate to describe this measure as being at “market” prices.
6.228. Both this measure of gross value added and that described in the previous section use purchasers’ prices to value intermediate inputs. The difference between the two measures is entirely attributable to their differing treatments of taxes or subsidies on products payable on outputs (other than invoiced VAT). By definition, the value of output at producers’ prices exceeds that at basic prices by the amount, if any, of the taxes, less subsidies, on the output so that the two associated measures of gross value added must differ by the same amount.
Gross value added at factor cost
6.229. Gross value added at factor cost is not a concept used explicitly in the System. Nevertheless, it can easily be derived from either of the measures of gross value added presented above by subtracting the value of any taxes, less subsidies, on production payable out of gross value added as defined. For example, the only taxes on production remaining to be paid out of gross value added at basic prices consist of “other taxes on production”. These consist mostly of current taxes (or subsidies) on the labour or capital employed in the enterprise, such as payroll taxes or current taxes on vehicles or buildings. Gross value added at factor cost can, therefore, be derived from gross value added at basic prices by subtracting “other taxes, less subsidies, on production”.
6.230. The conceptual difficulty with gross value added at factor cost is that there is no observable vector of prices such that gross value added at factor cost is obtained directly by multiplying the price vector by the vector of quantities of inputs and outputs that defines the production process. By definition, “other taxes or subsidies on production” are not taxes or subsidies on products that can be eliminated from the input and output prices. Thus, despite its traditional name, gross value added at factor cost is not strictly a measure of value added.
6.231. Gross value added at factor cost is essentially a measure of income and not output. It represents the amount remaining for distribution out of gross value added, however defined, after the payment of all taxes on production and the receipt of all subsidies on production. It makes no difference which measure of gross value added is used because the measures considered above differ only in respect of the amounts of the taxes or subsidies on production which remain payable out of gross value added.
6.232. Claims on gross value added, other than payments of taxes, less subsidies, to government used to be described as “factor incomes”. While the concept of factor income is no longer used in the System, gross value added at factor cost could be interpreted as measuring the value of the fund out of which so-called “factor incomes” can be paid: it follows that it is equal to the total value of the “factor” incomes generated by production.
联合国1993年SNA中对增加值总额(gross value added) 和增加值净额(net value added)的定义和说明：
L. Gross and net value added (B.1)
1. Introduction
6.222. Value added is the balancing item in the production account for an institutional unit or sector, or establishment or industry. It measures the value created by production and may be calculated either before or after deducting the consumption of fixed capital on the fixed assets used. As stated above:
(a) Gross value added is defined as the value of output less the value of intermediate consumption;
(b) Net value added is defined as the value of output less the values of both intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed capital.
To avoid repetition, only gross value added will be cited in the following sections when the corresponding conclusions for net value added are obvious.
6.223. Gross value added is an unduplicated measure of output in which the values of the goods and services used as intermediate inputs are eliminated from the value of output. The production process itself can be described by a vector of the quantities of goods and services consumed or produced in which inputs carry a negative sign. By associating a price vector with this quantity vector, gross value added is obtained as the inner product of the two vectors.
Let q = the vector of quantities consumed or produced
p = the vector of prices
Then
gross value added = pq
Alternative measures of gross value added may be obtained by combining different price vectors with a single quantity vector. For example, gross value added may be measured using the prices of some other time period or some other country. However, the price and quantity vectors are not independent of each other. The technology used - i.e., the particular production process selected - is itself influenced by the relative input and output prices confronting the producer. The quantities therefore depend on the prices. A process which is economically efficient and profitable at one set of prices may cease to be so at another and would, therefore, not be used at those prices. For this reason, figures of gross value added obtained by revaluing the quantities at very different sets of relative prices may have little economic significance and may even become negative.
2. Alternative measures of value added
6.225. As indicated above, alternative measures of gross value added may be obtained by associating different price vectors with a given vector of input and output quantities. The various measures which may be derived using the different sets of prices recognized in the System are considered below.
Gross value added at basic prices
6.226. Gross value added at basic prices is defined as output valued at basic prices less intermediate consumption valued at purchasers’ prices. Although the outputs and inputs are valued using different sets of prices, for brevity the value added is described by the prices used to value the outputs. From the point of view of the producer, purchasers’ prices for inputs and basic prices for outputs represent the prices actually paid and received. Their use leads to a measure of gross value added which is particularly relevant for the producer. The resulting measure has also some convenient properties for aggregation purposes as explained later, although there is no named aggregate in the System which corresponds to the sum of the gross values added of all enterprises measured at basic prices.
Gross value added at producers’ prices
6.227. Gross value added at producers’ prices is defined as output valued at producers’ prices less intermediate consumption valued at purchasers’ prices. As already explained, in the absence of VAT, the total value of the intermediate inputs consumed is the same whether they are valued at producers’ or at purchasers’ prices, in which case this measure of gross value added is the same as one which uses producers’ prices to value both inputs and outputs. It is an economically meaningful measure that is equivalent to the traditional measure of gross value added at market prices. However, in the presence of VAT, the producer’s price excludes invoiced VAT, and it would be inappropriate to describe this measure as being at “market” prices.
6.228. Both this measure of gross value added and that described in the previous section use purchasers’ prices to value intermediate inputs. The difference between the two measures is entirely attributable to their differing treatments of taxes or subsidies on products payable on outputs (other than invoiced VAT). By definition, the value of output at producers’ prices exceeds that at basic prices by the amount, if any, of the taxes, less subsidies, on the output so that the two associated measures of gross value added must differ by the same amount.
Gross value added at factor cost
6.229. Gross value added at factor cost is not a concept used explicitly in the System. Nevertheless, it can easily be derived from either of the measures of gross value added presented above by subtracting the value of any taxes, less subsidies, on production payable out of gross value added as defined. For example, the only taxes on production remaining to be paid out of gross value added at basic prices consist of “other taxes on production”. These consist mostly of current taxes (or subsidies) on the labour or capital employed in the enterprise, such as payroll taxes or current taxes on vehicles or buildings. Gross value added at factor cost can, therefore, be derived from gross value added at basic prices by subtracting “other taxes, less subsidies, on production”.
6.230. The conceptual difficulty with gross value added at factor cost is that there is no observable vector of prices such that gross value added at factor cost is obtained directly by multiplying the price vector by the vector of quantities of inputs and outputs that defines the production process. By definition, “other taxes or subsidies on production” are not taxes or subsidies on products that can be eliminated from the input and output prices. Thus, despite its traditional name, gross value added at factor cost is not strictly a measure of value added.
6.231. Gross value added at factor cost is essentially a measure of income and not output. It represents the amount remaining for distribution out of gross value added, however defined, after the payment of all taxes on production and the receipt of all subsidies on production. It makes no difference which measure of gross value added is used because the measures considered above differ only in respect of the amounts of the taxes or subsidies on production which remain payable out of gross value added.
6.232. Claims on gross value added, other than payments of taxes, less subsidies, to government used to be described as “factor incomes”. While the concept of factor income is no longer used in the System, gross value added at factor cost could be interpreted as measuring the value of the fund out of which so-called “factor incomes” can be paid: it follows that it is equal to the total value of the “factor” incomes generated by production.
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 10:58
猴赛音 发表于 2011-3-3 13:44
八九十代，外资也这么看中国人。
人都是一样的，没有啥人种优劣。
八九十代，外资也这么看中国人。
人都是一样的，没有啥人种优劣。
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 19:36
反对，态度不一样！
反对，态度不一样！
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 19:36
我说的不是人种优劣，而是印度人大部分受教育水平太低了，文盲太多了。
我说的不是人种优劣，而是印度人大部分受教育水平太低了，文盲太多了。
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 19:36
参加基本教育的比例差了好多吧，中国小学中学的入学率都在90%以上，印度呢？
参加基本教育的比例差了好多吧，中国小学中学的入学率都在90%以上，印度呢？
印度那GDP是全国普查？
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 19:36
此言差矣，人种优劣撇开不谈，但传统文化的差异还是很大的。东亚儒家文化圈的各民族非常务实进取，同时又能吃苦耐劳，所以二战后东亚各国才能跟随日本的脚步先后崛起。而印度人则比较懒散、盲目乐观而且容易自满，同时受教育程度又低，很难成为优秀的工人
此言差矣，人种优劣撇开不谈，但传统文化的差异还是很大的。东亚儒家文化圈的各民族非常务实进取，同时又能吃苦耐劳，所以二战后东亚各国才能跟随日本的脚步先后崛起。而印度人则比较懒散、盲目乐观而且容易自满，同时受教育程度又低，很难成为优秀的工人
rockstone 发表于 2011-3-3 19:36
八九十年代都是外资特别想进入中国的时期
那时候中国劳动力的受教育水平和素质高于现在的印度劳动力，基础设施建设速度也超过现在的印度
人口红利转瞬即逝，人从青年到中年也就20年，印度的生育率也一直在下降
要论人口红利巴基斯坦可比印度丰富，它的人口比印度更年轻
埃及一半以上人口在25岁，总量也不小，论红利应该超过越南，怎么没发展出红利来？
八九十年代都是外资特别想进入中国的时期
那时候中国劳动力的受教育水平和素质高于现在的印度劳动力，基础设施建设速度也超过现在的印度
人口红利转瞬即逝，人从青年到中年也就20年，印度的生育率也一直在下降
要论人口红利巴基斯坦可比印度丰富，它的人口比印度更年轻
埃及一半以上人口在25岁，总量也不小，论红利应该超过越南，怎么没发展出红利来？