超级军网巴克莱预计中国1月外汇储备降1400亿美元 刷新纪录
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/05/01 13:26:11
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160205/14210203_0.shtml
中国外储规模不断缩水，是人民币贬值压力的一面镜子。踏入新年，中国企业偿还外债、居民购汇保值潮涌现，经济学家预测，外汇储备将续以每月上千亿美元的速度缩水。
中国央行预计于农历除夕（2月7日）公布截至1月底的外储余额，接受彭博调查的10位经济学家对数据的预测中值为3.21万亿美元，这一规模较去年底减少逾千亿美元，并将刷新去年12月1080亿美元的月度降幅纪录。
“人民币贬值压力很大，外债规模较大的中国企业已有意识地替换外债。”参与调查的华宝信托驻上海经济学家聂文接受电话采访时说。他预计1月外储降幅再创历史新高的理由就包括，“1月上半月约1.7万亿元的信贷投放很大一部分就是企业进行外债置换。”
目前，国家外汇局只公布了截至去年三季度末的全口径外债数据，总额为1.53万亿美元，较二季度末大幅减少8.95%，降幅为全球金融危机以来最大。8.11汇改打开人民币贬值空间后，缺乏对冲汇率风险手段的中国企业为避免汇兑损失，正加速外债偿还。
1月初，东方航空[1.61% 资金 研报]宣布偿还美元债务本金10亿美元，并表示计划进一步削减美元债务。中骏置业[1.81%]、恒大地产[-1.89%]美元债务占比较高的房地产企业，也加入了提前偿还美元票据的行列。
招商银行[-0.07% 资金 研报]资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮指出，四季度整体外债规模继续下降是大概率事件，而外债的还本付息是导致外储下降的原因之一。
干预成本
在持久的人民币保卫战中，央行耗费的成本似乎越来越多。为阻止人民币大幅贬值，中国央行不得不持续干预外汇市场，以满足企业购汇还债及居民购汇保值增加的美元需求。
观察整个1月在岸人民币的走势，1月15日之前贬值趋势明显，此后央行加大力度稳定汇率，人民币兑美元汇率连续多天基本持平，横盘在6.58强方。据两位在岸人民币交易员形容，1月中旬至今，每日有至少两家中资大行持续在6.5800附近报卖美元。
上述交易员不愿具名接受采访，因未被授权公开评论汇市。
“干预的力度是比较大的。”巴克莱驻香港经济学家常健在电话采访中表示。她与该行驻新加坡新加坡经济学家David Fernandez等发布的报告中写道，“今年1月的第一周，在岸人民币跌幅较快，显示央行干预有所减少，而此后人民币一直相对稳定，不排除央行增加外汇干预的可能性。”
巴克莱预计1月中国外汇储备单月下降1400亿美元，再创有记录以来最大单月跌幅。在接受彭博调查的经济学家中，其预期最为悲观。
德国商业银行驻新加坡的经济师周浩也认为，外储规模收缩主因就是央行在汇率市场进行流动性干预。
资本外流
虽然央行的干预规模难以计算，彭博经济学家根据经常项目及资本项目数据测算，2015年中国资本[0.00%]外流达1万亿美元，为2014年的7倍以上。交银、招行、野村、华宝信托在内的多家金融机构经济学家在接受采访时也提出，资本外流是外储流失的另一个缺口。
除了企业、居民购汇还债或投资海外寻求增值，出口企业在人民币贬值预期下结汇意愿下降，选择持有美元而非兑换人民币，也使资本外流造成的外储缺口无法及时得到弥补。
野村驻香港中国首席经济学家赵扬在电话采访中表示，资本外流中国的形式多种多样，当前贸易顺差高企时，外汇储备下跌就更凸显资本外流问题，而在资本外流导致人民币进一步的贬值，就会促使央行出手干预稳定汇市。
国家外汇管理局周四在国际收支状况答记者问中表示，资本不可能长期大规模流入，有进有出也是客观经济规律。随着国内外经济环境的变化，资本有序正常流出也是难免的。对于资本和金融账户出现逆差、外汇储备下降的国际收支形势变化，需要客观看待。
购汇汹涌
从去年年底开始，中国居民蜂拥至各银行零售网点换汇的场景不断被曝光，而春节将至，人民币在老百姓中的人气仍不见回暖。
交银国际驻香港策略师洪灏在就外汇储备下降问题接受彭博采访时就重点提出，潜在居民换汇趋势将成为外储缩水的最大隐患，“其实，央行在美元方面最大的对手盘，就是中国居民本身。”
一旦贬值预期触动了居民大规模换汇，而换汇构成人民币继续贬值压力，将开启贬值——换汇——贬值的恶性循环。
上海的聂文也补充说，短期居民自发配置美元资产热情高涨，尤其是高净值客户，美元投资对他们相当有吸引力，另外QDII投资增加以及外汇储备资产自身缩水，都是他判断1月份外储下降的成因。http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160205/14210203_0.shtml
中国外储规模不断缩水，是人民币贬值压力的一面镜子。踏入新年，中国企业偿还外债、居民购汇保值潮涌现，经济学家预测，外汇储备将续以每月上千亿美元的速度缩水。
中国央行预计于农历除夕（2月7日）公布截至1月底的外储余额，接受彭博调查的10位经济学家对数据的预测中值为3.21万亿美元，这一规模较去年底减少逾千亿美元，并将刷新去年12月1080亿美元的月度降幅纪录。
“人民币贬值压力很大，外债规模较大的中国企业已有意识地替换外债。”参与调查的华宝信托驻上海经济学家聂文接受电话采访时说。他预计1月外储降幅再创历史新高的理由就包括，“1月上半月约1.7万亿元的信贷投放很大一部分就是企业进行外债置换。”
目前，国家外汇局只公布了截至去年三季度末的全口径外债数据，总额为1.53万亿美元，较二季度末大幅减少8.95%，降幅为全球金融危机以来最大。8.11汇改打开人民币贬值空间后，缺乏对冲汇率风险手段的中国企业为避免汇兑损失，正加速外债偿还。
1月初，东方航空[1.61% 资金 研报]宣布偿还美元债务本金10亿美元，并表示计划进一步削减美元债务。中骏置业[1.81%]、恒大地产[-1.89%]美元债务占比较高的房地产企业，也加入了提前偿还美元票据的行列。
招商银行[-0.07% 资金 研报]资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮指出，四季度整体外债规模继续下降是大概率事件，而外债的还本付息是导致外储下降的原因之一。
干预成本
在持久的人民币保卫战中，央行耗费的成本似乎越来越多。为阻止人民币大幅贬值，中国央行不得不持续干预外汇市场，以满足企业购汇还债及居民购汇保值增加的美元需求。
观察整个1月在岸人民币的走势，1月15日之前贬值趋势明显，此后央行加大力度稳定汇率，人民币兑美元汇率连续多天基本持平，横盘在6.58强方。据两位在岸人民币交易员形容，1月中旬至今，每日有至少两家中资大行持续在6.5800附近报卖美元。
上述交易员不愿具名接受采访，因未被授权公开评论汇市。
“干预的力度是比较大的。”巴克莱驻香港经济学家常健在电话采访中表示。她与该行驻新加坡新加坡经济学家David Fernandez等发布的报告中写道，“今年1月的第一周，在岸人民币跌幅较快，显示央行干预有所减少，而此后人民币一直相对稳定，不排除央行增加外汇干预的可能性。”
巴克莱预计1月中国外汇储备单月下降1400亿美元，再创有记录以来最大单月跌幅。在接受彭博调查的经济学家中，其预期最为悲观。
德国商业银行驻新加坡的经济师周浩也认为，外储规模收缩主因就是央行在汇率市场进行流动性干预。
资本外流
虽然央行的干预规模难以计算，彭博经济学家根据经常项目及资本项目数据测算，2015年中国资本[0.00%]外流达1万亿美元，为2014年的7倍以上。交银、招行、野村、华宝信托在内的多家金融机构经济学家在接受采访时也提出，资本外流是外储流失的另一个缺口。
除了企业、居民购汇还债或投资海外寻求增值，出口企业在人民币贬值预期下结汇意愿下降，选择持有美元而非兑换人民币，也使资本外流造成的外储缺口无法及时得到弥补。
野村驻香港中国首席经济学家赵扬在电话采访中表示，资本外流中国的形式多种多样，当前贸易顺差高企时，外汇储备下跌就更凸显资本外流问题，而在资本外流导致人民币进一步的贬值，就会促使央行出手干预稳定汇市。
国家外汇管理局周四在国际收支状况答记者问中表示，资本不可能长期大规模流入，有进有出也是客观经济规律。随着国内外经济环境的变化，资本有序正常流出也是难免的。对于资本和金融账户出现逆差、外汇储备下降的国际收支形势变化，需要客观看待。
购汇汹涌
从去年年底开始，中国居民蜂拥至各银行零售网点换汇的场景不断被曝光，而春节将至，人民币在老百姓中的人气仍不见回暖。
交银国际驻香港策略师洪灏在就外汇储备下降问题接受彭博采访时就重点提出，潜在居民换汇趋势将成为外储缩水的最大隐患，“其实，央行在美元方面最大的对手盘，就是中国居民本身。”
一旦贬值预期触动了居民大规模换汇，而换汇构成人民币继续贬值压力，将开启贬值——换汇——贬值的恶性循环。
上海的聂文也补充说，短期居民自发配置美元资产热情高涨，尤其是高净值客户，美元投资对他们相当有吸引力，另外QDII投资增加以及外汇储备资产自身缩水，都是他判断1月份外储下降的成因。
中国外储规模不断缩水，是人民币贬值压力的一面镜子。踏入新年，中国企业偿还外债、居民购汇保值潮涌现，经济学家预测，外汇储备将续以每月上千亿美元的速度缩水。
中国央行预计于农历除夕（2月7日）公布截至1月底的外储余额，接受彭博调查的10位经济学家对数据的预测中值为3.21万亿美元，这一规模较去年底减少逾千亿美元，并将刷新去年12月1080亿美元的月度降幅纪录。
“人民币贬值压力很大，外债规模较大的中国企业已有意识地替换外债。”参与调查的华宝信托驻上海经济学家聂文接受电话采访时说。他预计1月外储降幅再创历史新高的理由就包括，“1月上半月约1.7万亿元的信贷投放很大一部分就是企业进行外债置换。”
目前，国家外汇局只公布了截至去年三季度末的全口径外债数据，总额为1.53万亿美元，较二季度末大幅减少8.95%，降幅为全球金融危机以来最大。8.11汇改打开人民币贬值空间后，缺乏对冲汇率风险手段的中国企业为避免汇兑损失，正加速外债偿还。
1月初，东方航空[1.61% 资金 研报]宣布偿还美元债务本金10亿美元，并表示计划进一步削减美元债务。中骏置业[1.81%]、恒大地产[-1.89%]美元债务占比较高的房地产企业，也加入了提前偿还美元票据的行列。
招商银行[-0.07% 资金 研报]资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮指出，四季度整体外债规模继续下降是大概率事件，而外债的还本付息是导致外储下降的原因之一。
干预成本
在持久的人民币保卫战中，央行耗费的成本似乎越来越多。为阻止人民币大幅贬值，中国央行不得不持续干预外汇市场，以满足企业购汇还债及居民购汇保值增加的美元需求。
观察整个1月在岸人民币的走势，1月15日之前贬值趋势明显，此后央行加大力度稳定汇率，人民币兑美元汇率连续多天基本持平，横盘在6.58强方。据两位在岸人民币交易员形容，1月中旬至今，每日有至少两家中资大行持续在6.5800附近报卖美元。
上述交易员不愿具名接受采访，因未被授权公开评论汇市。
“干预的力度是比较大的。”巴克莱驻香港经济学家常健在电话采访中表示。她与该行驻新加坡新加坡经济学家David Fernandez等发布的报告中写道，“今年1月的第一周，在岸人民币跌幅较快，显示央行干预有所减少，而此后人民币一直相对稳定，不排除央行增加外汇干预的可能性。”
巴克莱预计1月中国外汇储备单月下降1400亿美元，再创有记录以来最大单月跌幅。在接受彭博调查的经济学家中，其预期最为悲观。
德国商业银行驻新加坡的经济师周浩也认为，外储规模收缩主因就是央行在汇率市场进行流动性干预。
资本外流
虽然央行的干预规模难以计算，彭博经济学家根据经常项目及资本项目数据测算，2015年中国资本[0.00%]外流达1万亿美元，为2014年的7倍以上。交银、招行、野村、华宝信托在内的多家金融机构经济学家在接受采访时也提出，资本外流是外储流失的另一个缺口。
除了企业、居民购汇还债或投资海外寻求增值，出口企业在人民币贬值预期下结汇意愿下降，选择持有美元而非兑换人民币，也使资本外流造成的外储缺口无法及时得到弥补。
野村驻香港中国首席经济学家赵扬在电话采访中表示，资本外流中国的形式多种多样，当前贸易顺差高企时，外汇储备下跌就更凸显资本外流问题，而在资本外流导致人民币进一步的贬值，就会促使央行出手干预稳定汇市。
国家外汇管理局周四在国际收支状况答记者问中表示，资本不可能长期大规模流入，有进有出也是客观经济规律。随着国内外经济环境的变化，资本有序正常流出也是难免的。对于资本和金融账户出现逆差、外汇储备下降的国际收支形势变化，需要客观看待。
购汇汹涌
从去年年底开始，中国居民蜂拥至各银行零售网点换汇的场景不断被曝光，而春节将至，人民币在老百姓中的人气仍不见回暖。
交银国际驻香港策略师洪灏在就外汇储备下降问题接受彭博采访时就重点提出，潜在居民换汇趋势将成为外储缩水的最大隐患，“其实，央行在美元方面最大的对手盘，就是中国居民本身。”
一旦贬值预期触动了居民大规模换汇，而换汇构成人民币继续贬值压力，将开启贬值——换汇——贬值的恶性循环。
上海的聂文也补充说，短期居民自发配置美元资产热情高涨，尤其是高净值客户，美元投资对他们相当有吸引力，另外QDII投资增加以及外汇储备资产自身缩水，都是他判断1月份外储下降的成因。http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160205/14210203_0.shtml
中国外储规模不断缩水，是人民币贬值压力的一面镜子。踏入新年，中国企业偿还外债、居民购汇保值潮涌现，经济学家预测，外汇储备将续以每月上千亿美元的速度缩水。
中国央行预计于农历除夕（2月7日）公布截至1月底的外储余额，接受彭博调查的10位经济学家对数据的预测中值为3.21万亿美元，这一规模较去年底减少逾千亿美元，并将刷新去年12月1080亿美元的月度降幅纪录。
“人民币贬值压力很大，外债规模较大的中国企业已有意识地替换外债。”参与调查的华宝信托驻上海经济学家聂文接受电话采访时说。他预计1月外储降幅再创历史新高的理由就包括，“1月上半月约1.7万亿元的信贷投放很大一部分就是企业进行外债置换。”
目前，国家外汇局只公布了截至去年三季度末的全口径外债数据，总额为1.53万亿美元，较二季度末大幅减少8.95%，降幅为全球金融危机以来最大。8.11汇改打开人民币贬值空间后，缺乏对冲汇率风险手段的中国企业为避免汇兑损失，正加速外债偿还。
1月初，东方航空[1.61% 资金 研报]宣布偿还美元债务本金10亿美元，并表示计划进一步削减美元债务。中骏置业[1.81%]、恒大地产[-1.89%]美元债务占比较高的房地产企业，也加入了提前偿还美元票据的行列。
招商银行[-0.07% 资金 研报]资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮指出，四季度整体外债规模继续下降是大概率事件，而外债的还本付息是导致外储下降的原因之一。
干预成本
在持久的人民币保卫战中，央行耗费的成本似乎越来越多。为阻止人民币大幅贬值，中国央行不得不持续干预外汇市场，以满足企业购汇还债及居民购汇保值增加的美元需求。
观察整个1月在岸人民币的走势，1月15日之前贬值趋势明显，此后央行加大力度稳定汇率，人民币兑美元汇率连续多天基本持平，横盘在6.58强方。据两位在岸人民币交易员形容，1月中旬至今，每日有至少两家中资大行持续在6.5800附近报卖美元。
上述交易员不愿具名接受采访，因未被授权公开评论汇市。
“干预的力度是比较大的。”巴克莱驻香港经济学家常健在电话采访中表示。她与该行驻新加坡新加坡经济学家David Fernandez等发布的报告中写道，“今年1月的第一周，在岸人民币跌幅较快，显示央行干预有所减少，而此后人民币一直相对稳定，不排除央行增加外汇干预的可能性。”
巴克莱预计1月中国外汇储备单月下降1400亿美元，再创有记录以来最大单月跌幅。在接受彭博调查的经济学家中，其预期最为悲观。
德国商业银行驻新加坡的经济师周浩也认为，外储规模收缩主因就是央行在汇率市场进行流动性干预。
资本外流
虽然央行的干预规模难以计算，彭博经济学家根据经常项目及资本项目数据测算，2015年中国资本[0.00%]外流达1万亿美元，为2014年的7倍以上。交银、招行、野村、华宝信托在内的多家金融机构经济学家在接受采访时也提出，资本外流是外储流失的另一个缺口。
除了企业、居民购汇还债或投资海外寻求增值，出口企业在人民币贬值预期下结汇意愿下降，选择持有美元而非兑换人民币，也使资本外流造成的外储缺口无法及时得到弥补。
野村驻香港中国首席经济学家赵扬在电话采访中表示，资本外流中国的形式多种多样，当前贸易顺差高企时，外汇储备下跌就更凸显资本外流问题，而在资本外流导致人民币进一步的贬值，就会促使央行出手干预稳定汇市。
国家外汇管理局周四在国际收支状况答记者问中表示，资本不可能长期大规模流入，有进有出也是客观经济规律。随着国内外经济环境的变化，资本有序正常流出也是难免的。对于资本和金融账户出现逆差、外汇储备下降的国际收支形势变化，需要客观看待。
购汇汹涌
从去年年底开始，中国居民蜂拥至各银行零售网点换汇的场景不断被曝光，而春节将至，人民币在老百姓中的人气仍不见回暖。
交银国际驻香港策略师洪灏在就外汇储备下降问题接受彭博采访时就重点提出，潜在居民换汇趋势将成为外储缩水的最大隐患，“其实，央行在美元方面最大的对手盘，就是中国居民本身。”
一旦贬值预期触动了居民大规模换汇，而换汇构成人民币继续贬值压力，将开启贬值——换汇——贬值的恶性循环。
上海的聂文也补充说，短期居民自发配置美元资产热情高涨，尤其是高净值客户，美元投资对他们相当有吸引力，另外QDII投资增加以及外汇储备资产自身缩水，都是他判断1月份外储下降的成因。
官方回应境外买保险单笔限额五千美元：多次刷卡将被重点监测
央广网北京2月6日消息（记者柴华）据中国之声《央广新闻》报道，近期中国银联重申境外买保险单笔刷卡限额5000美元，引发的市场热议。国家外汇管理局昨天（5日）发布答记者问专门对此进行了回应。
国家外汇管理局对此首先回应称，外汇局和中国银联没有对银行卡在境外保险类商户使用的政策进行调整。根据相关规定，考虑到境内持卡人在境外旅游或商务交往时，有购买小额保险的需求，所以此类商户允许消费，但此类商户单笔交易金额不得超过等值5000美元。
近期，中国银联对境外收单机构进行了调查，发现部分保险类商户未使用对应行业类别的限制类商户类别码，因此要求机构对商户类别码的标识和使用进行规范，确保监管政策和业务规则的执行效果。
不过，国家外汇局强调，对于持卡人通过多次刷卡从事其他目的保险交易的情况，外汇局将充分利用银行卡交易有记录可查这一特点，会同银行卡组织、发卡行，对于涉嫌多次刷卡交易的持卡人、商户进行重点监测。
外汇局对此回应称，维萨（VISA）、万事达（MASTER）等国际卡组织标识的境内银行卡，与中国银联标识的境内银行卡，都可以在境外保险类商户使用。日前，外汇局已经要求维萨、万事达等国际卡组织标识的境内银行卡发卡行，按照合规性、真实性的要求，执行金额限制类商户的规定。
http://news.youth.cn/jsxw/201602/t20160206_7613804.htm
央广网北京2月6日消息（记者柴华）据中国之声《央广新闻》报道，近期中国银联重申境外买保险单笔刷卡限额5000美元，引发的市场热议。国家外汇管理局昨天（5日）发布答记者问专门对此进行了回应。
国家外汇管理局对此首先回应称，外汇局和中国银联没有对银行卡在境外保险类商户使用的政策进行调整。根据相关规定，考虑到境内持卡人在境外旅游或商务交往时，有购买小额保险的需求，所以此类商户允许消费，但此类商户单笔交易金额不得超过等值5000美元。
近期，中国银联对境外收单机构进行了调查，发现部分保险类商户未使用对应行业类别的限制类商户类别码，因此要求机构对商户类别码的标识和使用进行规范，确保监管政策和业务规则的执行效果。
不过，国家外汇局强调，对于持卡人通过多次刷卡从事其他目的保险交易的情况，外汇局将充分利用银行卡交易有记录可查这一特点，会同银行卡组织、发卡行，对于涉嫌多次刷卡交易的持卡人、商户进行重点监测。
外汇局对此回应称，维萨（VISA）、万事达（MASTER）等国际卡组织标识的境内银行卡，与中国银联标识的境内银行卡，都可以在境外保险类商户使用。日前，外汇局已经要求维萨、万事达等国际卡组织标识的境内银行卡发卡行，按照合规性、真实性的要求，执行金额限制类商户的规定。
http://news.youth.cn/jsxw/201602/t20160206_7613804.htm
空头还贼心不死？
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
不急你外汇管置干嘛，应该放开购汇限制 完全市场化运作嘛。
不急你外汇管置干嘛，应该放开购汇限制 完全市场化运作嘛。
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
不急？ 呵呵！
不急？ 呵呵！
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
谈股论金 发表于 2016-2-6 14:21
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
一放开，地下钱庄收的5-10%转移海外费用。怎么收？！
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
一放开，地下钱庄收的5-10%转移海外费用。怎么收？！
一放开，地下钱庄收的5-10%转移海外费用。怎么收？！
档中央都不急，老百姓咋会有让地下钱庄有市场？
档中央都不急，老百姓咋会有让地下钱庄有市场？
浮岛 发表于 2016-2-6 13:42
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
还不急，现在到银行换美元，就几千美刀还要预约，有个人换几百美刀也要预约。有些小网点原来可以换美元的现在停掉了，你要一次换足你的5万美刀额度看看给不给你换。
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
还不急，现在到银行换美元，就几千美刀还要预约，有个人换几百美刀也要预约。有些小网点原来可以换美元的现在停掉了，你要一次换足你的5万美刀额度看看给不给你换。
在美国，去花旗银行换 1 万人民币纸币，不知道要不要预约。
分析人士称，降准降息的时点有可能会选择一季度、二季度之交的时段
http://finance.qq.com/a/20160206 ... 015&ptlang=2052
央行不会一直用短期工具来替代降准
■本报记者 闫立良
“中国经济转型过程中的‘三期叠加’将延续相当长时间，因此不能一直使用短期工具来替代长期工具，央行货币政策的独立性有必要加强。”摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊对《证券日报》表示。
从去年12月份以来，市场对于央行降准降息的预期就逐步攀升，但市场到现在也没有等到政策落地。反倒是从今年1月中旬开始，央行加大了公开市场操作力度以及全面启动创新型货币政策工具。逆回购操作覆盖至7天期、14天期和28天期，并且从1月29日起，央行在公开市场操作中就进入了天天逆回购模式。
常备借贷便利（SLF）、中期借贷便利（MLF）、抵押补充贷款（PSL）成为央行注入中长期流动性的主要工具，短期流动性调节工具（SLO）以及将政府支持机构债券和商业银行债券纳入公开市场操作和SLO质押品范围则很好的弥补了短期流动性的不足。
短中期流动性工具能否替代长期工具也就是降准降息呢？各界的反馈是一致的，那就是不能。
华创证券认为，当春节因素消失后，将有至少1.1万亿元逆回购加0.1亿元SLF到期，如果央行不续作，那么资金面可能并不会出现明显宽松。因此，央行现在的流动性管理操作将会给春节后的流动性带来较大扰动，节后资金面面临较大不确定性。
章俊认为，央行迟迟没有降息降准，取而代之的是更多的运用公开市场操作和创新货币政策工具为市场提供流动性。虽然效果在很大程度上没有差别，但反映了央行担心降息降准释放的宽松信号会对汇率造成更大的压力。但央行不能一直使用短期工具来替代长期工具，央行货币政策的独立性有必要加强。
目前各路市场机构已经将央行降准降息的时间延至今年一季度、二季度之交的时间段里。
http://finance.qq.com/a/20160206 ... 015&ptlang=2052
央行不会一直用短期工具来替代降准
■本报记者 闫立良
“中国经济转型过程中的‘三期叠加’将延续相当长时间，因此不能一直使用短期工具来替代长期工具，央行货币政策的独立性有必要加强。”摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊对《证券日报》表示。
从去年12月份以来，市场对于央行降准降息的预期就逐步攀升，但市场到现在也没有等到政策落地。反倒是从今年1月中旬开始，央行加大了公开市场操作力度以及全面启动创新型货币政策工具。逆回购操作覆盖至7天期、14天期和28天期，并且从1月29日起，央行在公开市场操作中就进入了天天逆回购模式。
常备借贷便利（SLF）、中期借贷便利（MLF）、抵押补充贷款（PSL）成为央行注入中长期流动性的主要工具，短期流动性调节工具（SLO）以及将政府支持机构债券和商业银行债券纳入公开市场操作和SLO质押品范围则很好的弥补了短期流动性的不足。
短中期流动性工具能否替代长期工具也就是降准降息呢？各界的反馈是一致的，那就是不能。
华创证券认为，当春节因素消失后，将有至少1.1万亿元逆回购加0.1亿元SLF到期，如果央行不续作，那么资金面可能并不会出现明显宽松。因此，央行现在的流动性管理操作将会给春节后的流动性带来较大扰动，节后资金面面临较大不确定性。
章俊认为，央行迟迟没有降息降准，取而代之的是更多的运用公开市场操作和创新货币政策工具为市场提供流动性。虽然效果在很大程度上没有差别，但反映了央行担心降息降准释放的宽松信号会对汇率造成更大的压力。但央行不能一直使用短期工具来替代长期工具，央行货币政策的独立性有必要加强。
目前各路市场机构已经将央行降准降息的时间延至今年一季度、二季度之交的时间段里。
反映了央行担心降息降准释放的宽松信号会对汇率造成更大的压力
霉啂囸噈急跳墙确实急，俺们小老百姓也就旅游用下外币
谈股论金 发表于 2016-2-6 14:21
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
不急呀，等啥时人民币成为世界储备货币，石油人民币取代石油美元，外汇管理局的历史使命就可以宣告结束了
代表淫民的档中央棋下到哪里了？外汇管制可以放开不？
不急呀，等啥时人民币成为世界储备货币，石油人民币取代石油美元，外汇管理局的历史使命就可以宣告结束了
不急呀，等啥时人民币成为世界储备货币，石油人民币取代石油美元，外汇管理局的历史使命就可以宣告结束了 ...
是啊，送你句名言：人终究是要死的
是啊，送你句名言：人终究是要死的
nicklee0085 发表于 2016-2-6 16:24
是啊，送你句名言：人终究是要死的
是呀，那些已经走上衰落不归路的国家居然还要继续领导世界一百年，当然是自己找死呀，只是当年大英帝国交出位置好歹还混个体面退下，不知道灯塔国的结局如何呢
是啊，送你句名言：人终究是要死的
是呀，那些已经走上衰落不归路的国家居然还要继续领导世界一百年，当然是自己找死呀，只是当年大英帝国交出位置好歹还混个体面退下，不知道灯塔国的结局如何呢
是呀，那些已经走上衰落不归路的国家居然还要继续领导世界一百年，当然是自己找死呀，只是当年大英帝国交 ...
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
怎么这么多盼中输得人渣呢?不知道倾覆之下无完卵吗？是因为自己已经不是中国人了吗?
carpeto 发表于 2016-2-6 17:07
怎么这么多盼中输得人渣呢?不知道倾覆之下无完卵吗？是因为自己已经不是中国人了吗?
啥知道那是些什么人。
在美国，只要你身上有几千美元，警察就有权用 “civil forfeiture” （民事罚款）的罪名没收，合法地变成警察办沙滩烧烤的经费了。
还说个毛的 “现在到银行取几千美元“。
怎么这么多盼中输得人渣呢?不知道倾覆之下无完卵吗？是因为自己已经不是中国人了吗?
啥知道那是些什么人。
在美国，只要你身上有几千美元，警察就有权用 “civil forfeiture” （民事罚款）的罪名没收，合法地变成警察办沙滩烧烤的经费了。
还说个毛的 “现在到银行取几千美元“。
CNN 的新闻，美国人，为了买车，身上带了 8500 美元，没有任何过错，被警察拦下来民主地没收了。
按那些人的逻辑，肯定是解读成，美国明显连印美元的纸都买不起了，各级政府要靠罚款回收美元发工资，完了完了，要崩溃了。
http :// edition.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/05/05/texas.police.seizures/index.html
TENAHA, Texas (CNN) -- Roderick Daniels was traveling through East Texas in October 2007 when, he says, he was the victim of a highway robbery.
Police in the small East Texas town of Tenaha are accused of unjustly taking valuables from motorists.
Police in the small East Texas town of Tenaha are accused of unjustly taking valuables from motorists.
Click to view previous image
1 of 2
Click to view next image
The Tennessee man says he was ordered to pull his car over and surrender his jewelry and $8,500 in cash that he had with him to buy a new car.
But Daniels couldn't go to the police to report the incident.
The men who stopped him were the police.
Daniels was stopped on U.S. Highway 59 outside Tenaha, near the Louisiana state line. Police said he was driving 37 mph in a 35 mph zone. They hauled him off to jail and threatened him with money-laundering charges -- but offered to release him if he signed papers forfeiting his property.
"I actually thought this was a joke," Daniels told CNN.
But he signed.
"To be honest, I was five, six hundred miles from home," he said. "I was petrified." Video Watch CNN's Gary Tuchman try to question officials »
Now Daniels and other motorists who have been stopped by Tenaha police are part of a lawsuit seeking to end what plaintiff's lawyer David Guillory calls a systematic fleecing of drivers passing through the town of about 1,000.
Highway Robbery?
The latest on the lawsuit claiming police are shaking down drivers in Texas on AC360.
Tonight, 10pm ET
see full schedule »
"I believe it is a shakedown. I believe it's a piracy operation," Guillory said.
George Bowers, Tenaha's longtime mayor, says his police follow the law. And through her lawyers, Shelby County District Attorney Lynda Russell denied any impropriety.
Texas law allows police to confiscate drug money and other personal property they believe are used in the commission of a crime. If no charges are filed or the person is acquitted, the property has to be returned. But Guillory's lawsuit states that Tenaha and surrounding Shelby County don't bother to return much of what they confiscate.
Jennifer Boatright and Ron Henderson said they agreed to forfeit their property after Russell threatened to have their children taken away.
Like Daniels, the couple says they were carrying a large amount of cash --- about $6,000 -- to buy a car. When they were stopped in Tenaha in 2007, Boatright said, Russell came to the Tenaha police station to berate her and threaten to separate the family.
"I said, 'If it's the money you want, you can take it, if that's what it takes to keep my children with me and not separate them from us. Take the money,' " she said.
Don't Miss
"AC360°" blog
The document Henderson signed, which bears Russell's signature, states that in exchange for forfeiting the cash, "no criminal charges shall be filed ... and our children shall not be turned over" to the state's child protective services agency.
Maryland resident Amanee Busbee said she also was threatened with losing custody of her child after being stopped in Tenaha with her fiancé and his business partner. They were headed to Houston with $50,000 to complete the purchase of a restaurant, she said.
"The police officer would say things to me like, 'Your son is going to child protective services because you are not saying what we need to hear,' " Busbee said.
Guillory, who practices in nearby Nacogdoches, Texas, estimates authorities in Tenaha seized $3 million between 2006 and 2008, and in about 150 cases -- virtually all of which involved African-American or Latino motorists -- the seizures were improper.
"They are disproportionately going after racial minorities," he said. "My take on the matter is that the police in Tenaha, Texas, were picking on and preying on people that were least likely to fight back."
Daniels told CNN that one of the officers who stopped him tried on some of his jewelry in front of him.
"They asked me, 'What you are doing with this ring on?' I said I had bought that ring. I paid good money for that ring," Daniels said. "He took the ring off my finger and put it on his finger and told me how did it look. He put on my jewelry."
Texas law states that the proceeds of any seizures can be used only for "official purposes" of district attorney offices and "for law-enforcement purposes" by police departments. According to public records obtained by CNN using open-records laws, an account funded by property forfeitures in Russell's office included $524 for a popcorn machine, $195 for candy for a poultry festival, and $400 for catering.
In addition, Russell donated money to the local chamber of commerce and a youth baseball league. A local Baptist church received two checks totaling $6,000.
And one check for $10,000 went to Barry Washington, a Tenaha police officer whose name has come up in several complaints by stopped motorists. The money was paid for "investigative costs," the records state.
Washington would not comment for this report but has denied all allegations in his answer to Guillory's lawsuit.
"This is under litigation. This is a lawsuit," he told CNN.
Russell refused requests for interviews at her office and at a fundraiser for a volunteer fire department in a nearby town, where she also sang. But in a written statement, her lawyers said she "has denied and continues to deny all substantive allegations set forth."
Russell "has used and continues to use prosecutorial discretion ... and is in compliance with Texas law, the Texas constitution, and the United States Constitution," the statement said.
Bowers, who has been Tenaha's mayor for 54 years, is also named in the lawsuit. But he said his employees "will follow the law."
"We try to hire the very best, best-trained, and we keep them up to date on the training," he said.
The attention paid to Tenaha has led to an effort by Texas lawmakers to tighten the state's forfeiture laws. A bill sponsored by state Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, would bar authorities from using the kind of waivers Daniels, Henderson and Busbee were told to sign.
"To have law enforcement and the district attorney essentially be crooks, in my judgment, should infuriate and does infuriate everyone," Whitmire said. His bill has passed the Senate, where he is the longest-serving member, and is currently before the House of Representatives.
advertisement
Busbee, Boatright and Henderson were able to reclaim their property after hiring lawyers. But Daniels is still out his $8,500.
"To this day, I don't understand why they took my belongings off me," he said.
按那些人的逻辑，肯定是解读成，美国明显连印美元的纸都买不起了，各级政府要靠罚款回收美元发工资，完了完了，要崩溃了。
http :// edition.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/05/05/texas.police.seizures/index.html
TENAHA, Texas (CNN) -- Roderick Daniels was traveling through East Texas in October 2007 when, he says, he was the victim of a highway robbery.
Police in the small East Texas town of Tenaha are accused of unjustly taking valuables from motorists.
Police in the small East Texas town of Tenaha are accused of unjustly taking valuables from motorists.
Click to view previous image
1 of 2
Click to view next image
The Tennessee man says he was ordered to pull his car over and surrender his jewelry and $8,500 in cash that he had with him to buy a new car.
But Daniels couldn't go to the police to report the incident.
The men who stopped him were the police.
Daniels was stopped on U.S. Highway 59 outside Tenaha, near the Louisiana state line. Police said he was driving 37 mph in a 35 mph zone. They hauled him off to jail and threatened him with money-laundering charges -- but offered to release him if he signed papers forfeiting his property.
"I actually thought this was a joke," Daniels told CNN.
But he signed.
"To be honest, I was five, six hundred miles from home," he said. "I was petrified." Video Watch CNN's Gary Tuchman try to question officials »
Now Daniels and other motorists who have been stopped by Tenaha police are part of a lawsuit seeking to end what plaintiff's lawyer David Guillory calls a systematic fleecing of drivers passing through the town of about 1,000.
Highway Robbery?
The latest on the lawsuit claiming police are shaking down drivers in Texas on AC360.
Tonight, 10pm ET
see full schedule »
"I believe it is a shakedown. I believe it's a piracy operation," Guillory said.
George Bowers, Tenaha's longtime mayor, says his police follow the law. And through her lawyers, Shelby County District Attorney Lynda Russell denied any impropriety.
Texas law allows police to confiscate drug money and other personal property they believe are used in the commission of a crime. If no charges are filed or the person is acquitted, the property has to be returned. But Guillory's lawsuit states that Tenaha and surrounding Shelby County don't bother to return much of what they confiscate.
Jennifer Boatright and Ron Henderson said they agreed to forfeit their property after Russell threatened to have their children taken away.
Like Daniels, the couple says they were carrying a large amount of cash --- about $6,000 -- to buy a car. When they were stopped in Tenaha in 2007, Boatright said, Russell came to the Tenaha police station to berate her and threaten to separate the family.
"I said, 'If it's the money you want, you can take it, if that's what it takes to keep my children with me and not separate them from us. Take the money,' " she said.
Don't Miss
"AC360°" blog
The document Henderson signed, which bears Russell's signature, states that in exchange for forfeiting the cash, "no criminal charges shall be filed ... and our children shall not be turned over" to the state's child protective services agency.
Maryland resident Amanee Busbee said she also was threatened with losing custody of her child after being stopped in Tenaha with her fiancé and his business partner. They were headed to Houston with $50,000 to complete the purchase of a restaurant, she said.
"The police officer would say things to me like, 'Your son is going to child protective services because you are not saying what we need to hear,' " Busbee said.
Guillory, who practices in nearby Nacogdoches, Texas, estimates authorities in Tenaha seized $3 million between 2006 and 2008, and in about 150 cases -- virtually all of which involved African-American or Latino motorists -- the seizures were improper.
"They are disproportionately going after racial minorities," he said. "My take on the matter is that the police in Tenaha, Texas, were picking on and preying on people that were least likely to fight back."
Daniels told CNN that one of the officers who stopped him tried on some of his jewelry in front of him.
"They asked me, 'What you are doing with this ring on?' I said I had bought that ring. I paid good money for that ring," Daniels said. "He took the ring off my finger and put it on his finger and told me how did it look. He put on my jewelry."
Texas law states that the proceeds of any seizures can be used only for "official purposes" of district attorney offices and "for law-enforcement purposes" by police departments. According to public records obtained by CNN using open-records laws, an account funded by property forfeitures in Russell's office included $524 for a popcorn machine, $195 for candy for a poultry festival, and $400 for catering.
In addition, Russell donated money to the local chamber of commerce and a youth baseball league. A local Baptist church received two checks totaling $6,000.
And one check for $10,000 went to Barry Washington, a Tenaha police officer whose name has come up in several complaints by stopped motorists. The money was paid for "investigative costs," the records state.
Washington would not comment for this report but has denied all allegations in his answer to Guillory's lawsuit.
"This is under litigation. This is a lawsuit," he told CNN.
Russell refused requests for interviews at her office and at a fundraiser for a volunteer fire department in a nearby town, where she also sang. But in a written statement, her lawyers said she "has denied and continues to deny all substantive allegations set forth."
Russell "has used and continues to use prosecutorial discretion ... and is in compliance with Texas law, the Texas constitution, and the United States Constitution," the statement said.
Bowers, who has been Tenaha's mayor for 54 years, is also named in the lawsuit. But he said his employees "will follow the law."
"We try to hire the very best, best-trained, and we keep them up to date on the training," he said.
The attention paid to Tenaha has led to an effort by Texas lawmakers to tighten the state's forfeiture laws. A bill sponsored by state Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, would bar authorities from using the kind of waivers Daniels, Henderson and Busbee were told to sign.
"To have law enforcement and the district attorney essentially be crooks, in my judgment, should infuriate and does infuriate everyone," Whitmire said. His bill has passed the Senate, where he is the longest-serving member, and is currently before the House of Representatives.
advertisement
Busbee, Boatright and Henderson were able to reclaim their property after hiring lawyers. But Daniels is still out his $8,500.
"To this day, I don't understand why they took my belongings off me," he said.
那些 id 如果在美国，隔几天去取几千美元，估计警察直接怀疑你洗钱，钱没收，人进局子里说清楚。
美国赫芬顿邮报 2015 年 2 月 11 号的新闻:
当你带有大量现金的时候，警察拦住你，你的钱会怎样？
Police Stop You While You're Carrying A Bunch Of Cash. What Happens To Your Money?
http :// www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/1 ... oney_n_6623972.html
In many cases, police can take your assets even if you're innocent.
Police regularly seize and adopt property without any conclusive proof of a connection to criminal activity. Under civil asset forfeiture, legal action can be filed against a person's property without ever charging the owner -- much less obtaining a conviction. This has made it an easy process to abuse. Say you're stopped with $11,500 in hard-earned cash while on a house-hunting trip. If police find that money, they can take it even though you haven't committed a crime.
To get seized assets back, owners are often required to definitively prove that their property is not connected to a crime.
"That notion that police can suspect you of wrongdoing, take your property and then flip the burden of proof to you to prove your own innocence just turns the whole idea of innocent until proven guilty on its head," Larry Salzman, an attorney with the Institute for Justice, told The Huffington Post.
With the government technically pursuing action against property, not a person, disputes over civil asset forfeiture tend to have memorable case names, like United States v. $124,700 in U.S. Currency and United States v. Approximately 64,695 Pounds of Shark Fins.
美国赫芬顿邮报 2015 年 2 月 11 号的新闻:
当你带有大量现金的时候，警察拦住你，你的钱会怎样？
Police Stop You While You're Carrying A Bunch Of Cash. What Happens To Your Money?
http :// www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/1 ... oney_n_6623972.html
In many cases, police can take your assets even if you're innocent.
Police regularly seize and adopt property without any conclusive proof of a connection to criminal activity. Under civil asset forfeiture, legal action can be filed against a person's property without ever charging the owner -- much less obtaining a conviction. This has made it an easy process to abuse. Say you're stopped with $11,500 in hard-earned cash while on a house-hunting trip. If police find that money, they can take it even though you haven't committed a crime.
To get seized assets back, owners are often required to definitively prove that their property is not connected to a crime.
"That notion that police can suspect you of wrongdoing, take your property and then flip the burden of proof to you to prove your own innocence just turns the whole idea of innocent until proven guilty on its head," Larry Salzman, an attorney with the Institute for Justice, told The Huffington Post.
With the government technically pursuing action against property, not a person, disputes over civil asset forfeiture tend to have memorable case names, like United States v. $124,700 in U.S. Currency and United States v. Approximately 64,695 Pounds of Shark Fins.
太保守了。 至少1600亿。 月初的恐慌，加上春节出境游换汇潮， 怎么可能才1400亿
又要完了？年终奖还没发吗？
有些杂碎，只要它们认为对中国不利，就欢快地跳起来了。
nicklee0085 发表于 2016-2-6 16:57
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
鹿死谁手？灯塔国除了进行军事冒险我看没有别的办法了
去年到今年不是打了一年的货币战，杀得血流成河，股市汇市一片哀嚎都不管用
nicklee0085 发表于 2016-2-6 16:57
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
鹿死谁手？灯塔国除了进行军事冒险我看没有别的办法了
去年到今年不是打了一年的货币战，杀得血流成河，股市汇市一片哀嚎都不管用
人民币汇率回归一项就要吃掉很多美元储备
做空人民币是不可能的
但是肯定要被剪羊毛
做空人民币是不可能的
但是肯定要被剪羊毛
这帖子里的发言看得我一愣一愣的，两派就在毫无逻辑互相瞎喷，又毫无营养，两派基本都是没必要的知识储备却又喜欢参与这类话题，各种地摊性的臆断思维
中恐输论者和中必赢论者，我觉得他们是一路人
中恐输论者和中必赢论者，我觉得他们是一路人
这帖子里的发言看得我一愣一愣的，两派就在毫无逻辑互相瞎喷，又毫无营养，两派基本都是没必要的知识储备却 ...
这话说的在理，虽然上了这么多年CD，我还是要说一句在CD里谈非军事话题确实不如其他专业论坛。
这话说的在理，虽然上了这么多年CD，我还是要说一句在CD里谈非军事话题确实不如其他专业论坛。
这话说的在理，虽然上了这么多年CD，我还是要说一句在CD里谈非军事话题确实不如其他专业论坛。
不专业有不专业的好处，视野会更宽广，角度更奇特。
不专业有不专业的好处，视野会更宽广，角度更奇特。
hnmyyay 发表于 2016-2-6 22:04
这帖子里的发言看得我一愣一愣的，两派就在毫无逻辑互相瞎喷，又毫无营养，两派基本都是没必要的知识储备却 ...
这两派人大多只是美国人宋鸿兵的演义小说的受害者而已，缺乏基本金融知识，而且越辩论他们就会觉得自己懂得越多，至于看真正的学术著作在他们看来是没有必要读的。
这帖子里的发言看得我一愣一愣的，两派就在毫无逻辑互相瞎喷，又毫无营养，两派基本都是没必要的知识储备却 ...
这两派人大多只是美国人宋鸿兵的演义小说的受害者而已，缺乏基本金融知识，而且越辩论他们就会觉得自己懂得越多，至于看真正的学术著作在他们看来是没有必要读的。
现在就是水库放水，创记录的贸易顺差，中国的外汇水库都快溢了，不放就要溃坝。放的结果很可能是下游溃堤，水漫金山。美国人比我着急。
中国的巨额美元储备居然以这种方式得以疏解，还站在了道德制高点，无论有心还是无意，都是天佑中华。
去美元化击中了美帝的要害。外储下降中国人不急，美国人急阿…………
典型的无知者于畏，搞不懂超大怎么多说话不经大脑，对经济学一无所知的人都来信口开河了
典型的无知者于畏，搞不懂超大怎么多说话不经大脑，对经济学一无所知的人都来信口开河了
nicklee0085 发表于 2016-2-6 16:57
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
不要让心中的恐惧战胜理智。。。。。。
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
不要让心中的恐惧战胜理智。。。。。。
carpeto 发表于 2016-2-6 17:07
怎么这么多盼中输得人渣呢?不知道倾覆之下无完卵吗？是因为自己已经不是中国人了吗?
它们本来就是敌对势力雇佣的网络水军，你咋还不明白。
现在是金融战争时期，对敌对势力的宣传一概不予理睬，是基本常识了。
怎么这么多盼中输得人渣呢?不知道倾覆之下无完卵吗？是因为自己已经不是中国人了吗?
它们本来就是敌对势力雇佣的网络水军，你咋还不明白。
现在是金融战争时期，对敌对势力的宣传一概不予理睬，是基本常识了。
一生的水/ty 发表于 2016-2-6 23:36
现在就是水库放水，创记录的贸易顺差，中国的外汇水库都快溢了，不放就要溃坝。放的结果很可能是下游溃堤， ...
这才叫完璧归赵，噎死那个老傻逼。
现在就是水库放水，创记录的贸易顺差，中国的外汇水库都快溢了，不放就要溃坝。放的结果很可能是下游溃堤， ...
这才叫完璧归赵，噎死那个老傻逼。
不急你外汇管置干嘛，应该放开购汇限制 完全市场化运作嘛。
你这周推的，很顺水嘛
你这周推的，很顺水嘛
不急？ 呵呵！
你看谁急，哈哈
你看谁急，哈哈
鹿死谁手还不知，中国先过这个梗再说
哈哈，先关心一下美元指数和美股吧
哈哈，先关心一下美元指数和美股吧