纽约时报也来凑DF41的热闹，看来大家都着急啊

原创翻译：

China’s Missile Advances Could Thwart U.S. Defenses, Analysts Say
分析家称，中国导弹的进步或可化解美国防御

HONG KONG — China is moving ahead with the development of a new and more capable generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles, increasing its existing ability to deliver nuclear warheads to the United States and to overwhelm missile defense systems, military analysts said this week.

香港——军事分析专家本周表示，中国正着手发展更强大的新一代洲际弹道导弹和潜射导弹，以增强其向美国投放核弹及突破导弹防御系统的能力。

Overall, China’s steady strengthening of its military capabilities for conventional and nuclear warfare has long caused concern in Congress and among American allies in East Asia, particularly lately as Chinese has taken a more assertive position regarding territorial claims in the East China and South China seas.

总体而言，中国稳步增强常规与核武器的举动早已令美国国会及东亚盟友不安，尤其是中国在东海和南海崭露峥嵘的今天。

The Global Times, a newspaper directly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, reported on Wednesday that China was developing the capability to put multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs. But the newspaper disputed a report in Jane’s Defense Weekly that the latest Chinese ICBM, the Dongfeng-41, had already been tested last month.

国营《环球时报》周三报道称，中国正在发展多弹头洲际弹道导弹，但该报否认了简氏防务关于DF41已于上月试射的报道。

Larry M. Wortzel, on the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a panel created by Congress, said that China was developing the capability to put as many as 10 nuclear warheads on an ICBM, although dummy warheads could be substituted for some of the nuclear warheads. The dummy warheads would have heat and electromagnetic devices designed to trick missile defense systems as being as threatening as the actual warheads, he said.

由美国国会组建的美中经济与安全评价委员会成员Larry M. Wortzel指出：中国正致力于发展将多达十枚核弹头装入一枚洲际导弹的能力，虽然其中或混有假弹头。假核弹头或将备有发热和电磁装置，欺骗导弹防御系统，以假乱真。

“The bigger implication of this is that as they begin to field a force of missiles with multiple warheads, it means everything we assume about the size of their nuclear arsenal becomes wrong,” said Mr. Wortzel, who is a former United States military intelligence officer and retired Army colonel.

这位曾经担任过美军情报官的退休陆军上校表示：中国开始部署多弹头导弹，意味着我们关于其核武库规模的所有假设都是错误的。

China has separately tested submarine-launched missiles as well in recent weeks, which it could use to outflank American missile detection systems, Mr. Wortzel said. Most of the radar arrays that the United States has deployed against ballistic missiles were built during the cold war to detect attacks over polar routes.

Wortzel表示：最近几周，中国还试射了数枚可躲避美国导弹侦察系统的潜射导弹。美国已部署的反导雷达阵大多数建于冷战时期，用于侦探飞越极地的攻击。

Sun Zhe, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said that China was developing its military forces only in response to continued efforts by other countries, particularly the United States, to improve their own forces.

“We have again and again said that we will not be the first country to use nuclear force,” he said. “We need to be able to defend ourselves, and our main threat, I’m afraid, comes from the United States.”

清华大学国际关系教授Sun Zhe称：中国发展军力只是为了应对其它国家尤其是美国的军扩行为。＂我们再三表示我们不会首先使用核武器，我们必须有能力自卫，我们的主要威胁恐怕来自美国。＂

China’s development of long-range missiles is part of a much broader military expansion made possible by rapid budget growth in tandem with the Chinese economy, which had an output of $7.5 trillion last year, compared with $1.2 trillion in 2000.

远程导弹的发展仅仅是中国军事扩张的一部分，这一切得益于与中国经济同步快速增长的国防预算，去年中国经济总量达到7.5万亿美元，而在2000年仅有1.2万亿美元。

China began sea trials last year for its first aircraft carrier, the Varyag, a retrofitted version of a Soviet vessel, and has begun talking this summer about the eventual construction of up to five aircraft carriers. China also began conducting fairly public flight tests in January last year for the J-20, its new stealth fighter jet.

去年，中国首艘航母、改装自苏联舰艇的瓦良格号开始海试，今年夏天又传出中国将建造多达5艘航母的风声。去年一月，中国相当公开地试飞了新型隐形战机歼20。

The scale of China’s strategic missile program is much more secret. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has 55 to 65 intercontinental ballistic missiles. China is also preparing two submarines for deployment, each with 12 missiles aboard, Mr. Wortzel said.

中国战略导弹的规模则隐秘得多。五角大楼估计中国目前拥有55至65枚洲际导弹。Wortzel称中国还准备部署两艘潜艇，各载12枚导弹。

Those forces are dwarfed by those of the United States, which is cutting its inventory to 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons by 2018 under the latest arms control agreement with Russia, signed in 2010.

这些军力在美国面前则是小儿科，美国正依照美俄2010年军控条约，在2018年之前将战略核武器裁减至1550枚。

Western forecasts vary of how many Dongfeng-41s China will produce, with 20 to 32 mobile launching systems planned. The mobile launchers make it harder to find and destroy a missile before it is launched, and also raise the possibility that additional missiles could be hidden in storage and used to reload after the initial missile is fired.

西方对中国将生产多少枚DF41众说纷纭，但目前已有投入20到32具移动发射系统的计划。移动发射装置令导弹在发射前更难以被发现和摧毁，此外，这意味着更多的导弹或藏身他处，一批打完再一批。

If each missile has 10 nuclear warheads, that could result in a few hundred to several hundred nuclear weapons.

如果每枚导弹有10个核弹头，这将意味着数百件核武器。

But Tom Z. Collina, the research director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said that China might not actually deploy multiple warheads without first developing and testing smaller warheads. And China signed in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996, agreeing not to conduct further nuclear tests.

但位于华盛顿的武控协会研究主任Tom Z. Collina称，中国也许不会在发展和测试小型核弹头之前就实际部署多弹头导弹。中国在1996年签署了禁止核试验条约，同意不再进行核试验。

“It’s not just an issue of whether they have a missile they could physically lift all those warheads, but whether they could fit all those warheads on a missile,” Mr. Collina said.

Tom Z. Collina表示：＂这不仅仅是他们的导弹能否提升这么多弹头的问题，还在于他们能否将这么多弹头拼装进一个导弹里。＂

The United States has tried to reassure Russia and China that its limited ballistic missile defenses are only designed to shoot down one or a handful of missiles launched by a rogue state. But missile defense advocates in the United States favor more ambitious but also far costlier systems, a spirited debate that has been followed with nervousness in Moscow and Beijing.

美国已试图安抚俄罗斯和中国，称其小规模的弹道导弹防御系统仅针对流氓国家发射的寥寥数枚导弹。但美国国内的导弹防御支持者们则希望建立一个更强大、更烧钱的系统，中俄两国紧张地关注这场激辩。

The United States has been mulling where it can best place additional high-tech radar systems designed to track ballistic missiles. American forces currently have one in northern Japan and others that are deployed from time to time at sea. The Wall Street Journal reported this week on discussions of whether to put two more on land, in southern Japan and in Southeast Asia.

美国正考虑在何处部署用于跟踪弹道导弹的高科技雷达系统。美军目前在日本北部有一个，海上也不时布置了一些。华尔街日报本周报道了关于是否在日本南部和东南亚地区再安排两套系统的讨论。

American officials have said repeatedly that their main concern is North Korea, which has been testing long-range missiles and developing nuclear weapons. But Chinese officials and experts have been deeply suspicious that American missile defense systems are aimed at their country’s forces as well.

美国官员多次声明他们主要关注朝鲜，该国已试射了远程导弹并发展了核武器。但中方官员和专家们深深质疑美国导弹防御系统是否也针对中国。

“I have no doubt that the one of the goals of the missile defenses is to contain threats from North Korea, but objectively speaking, a high-tech expansion of U.S. military biceps impacts China, too,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. He added that discussions have taken place in China on whether to develop missile defense systems as well.

人民大学国际关系教授Shi Yinhong表示：＂导弹防御的目的之一是为了控制来自朝鲜的威胁，这点我不怀疑，但客观地讲，一块美军肌肉的高科技扩张对中国也有影响。＂他还表示，中国已在讨论是否也要发展导弹防御系统。

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/2 ... nalysts-say.html?hp原创翻译：

China’s Missile Advances Could Thwart U.S. Defenses, Analysts Say
分析家称，中国导弹的进步或可化解美国防御

HONG KONG — China is moving ahead with the development of a new and more capable generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles, increasing its existing ability to deliver nuclear warheads to the United States and to overwhelm missile defense systems, military analysts said this week.

香港——军事分析专家本周表示，中国正着手发展更强大的新一代洲际弹道导弹和潜射导弹，以增强其向美国投放核弹及突破导弹防御系统的能力。

Overall, China’s steady strengthening of its military capabilities for conventional and nuclear warfare has long caused concern in Congress and among American allies in East Asia, particularly lately as Chinese has taken a more assertive position regarding territorial claims in the East China and South China seas.

总体而言，中国稳步增强常规与核武器的举动早已令美国国会及东亚盟友不安，尤其是中国在东海和南海崭露峥嵘的今天。

The Global Times, a newspaper directly controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, reported on Wednesday that China was developing the capability to put multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs. But the newspaper disputed a report in Jane’s Defense Weekly that the latest Chinese ICBM, the Dongfeng-41, had already been tested last month.

国营《环球时报》周三报道称，中国正在发展多弹头洲际弹道导弹，但该报否认了简氏防务关于DF41已于上月试射的报道。

Larry M. Wortzel, on the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a panel created by Congress, said that China was developing the capability to put as many as 10 nuclear warheads on an ICBM, although dummy warheads could be substituted for some of the nuclear warheads. The dummy warheads would have heat and electromagnetic devices designed to trick missile defense systems as being as threatening as the actual warheads, he said.

由美国国会组建的美中经济与安全评价委员会成员Larry M. Wortzel指出：中国正致力于发展将多达十枚核弹头装入一枚洲际导弹的能力，虽然其中或混有假弹头。假核弹头或将备有发热和电磁装置，欺骗导弹防御系统，以假乱真。

“The bigger implication of this is that as they begin to field a force of missiles with multiple warheads, it means everything we assume about the size of their nuclear arsenal becomes wrong,” said Mr. Wortzel, who is a former United States military intelligence officer and retired Army colonel.

这位曾经担任过美军情报官的退休陆军上校表示：中国开始部署多弹头导弹，意味着我们关于其核武库规模的所有假设都是错误的。

China has separately tested submarine-launched missiles as well in recent weeks, which it could use to outflank American missile detection systems, Mr. Wortzel said. Most of the radar arrays that the United States has deployed against ballistic missiles were built during the cold war to detect attacks over polar routes.

Wortzel表示：最近几周，中国还试射了数枚可躲避美国导弹侦察系统的潜射导弹。美国已部署的反导雷达阵大多数建于冷战时期，用于侦探飞越极地的攻击。

Sun Zhe, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said that China was developing its military forces only in response to continued efforts by other countries, particularly the United States, to improve their own forces.

“We have again and again said that we will not be the first country to use nuclear force,” he said. “We need to be able to defend ourselves, and our main threat, I’m afraid, comes from the United States.”

清华大学国际关系教授Sun Zhe称：中国发展军力只是为了应对其它国家尤其是美国的军扩行为。＂我们再三表示我们不会首先使用核武器，我们必须有能力自卫，我们的主要威胁恐怕来自美国。＂

China’s development of long-range missiles is part of a much broader military expansion made possible by rapid budget growth in tandem with the Chinese economy, which had an output of $7.5 trillion last year, compared with $1.2 trillion in 2000.

远程导弹的发展仅仅是中国军事扩张的一部分，这一切得益于与中国经济同步快速增长的国防预算，去年中国经济总量达到7.5万亿美元，而在2000年仅有1.2万亿美元。

China began sea trials last year for its first aircraft carrier, the Varyag, a retrofitted version of a Soviet vessel, and has begun talking this summer about the eventual construction of up to five aircraft carriers. China also began conducting fairly public flight tests in January last year for the J-20, its new stealth fighter jet.

去年，中国首艘航母、改装自苏联舰艇的瓦良格号开始海试，今年夏天又传出中国将建造多达5艘航母的风声。去年一月，中国相当公开地试飞了新型隐形战机歼20。

The scale of China’s strategic missile program is much more secret. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has 55 to 65 intercontinental ballistic missiles. China is also preparing two submarines for deployment, each with 12 missiles aboard, Mr. Wortzel said.

中国战略导弹的规模则隐秘得多。五角大楼估计中国目前拥有55至65枚洲际导弹。Wortzel称中国还准备部署两艘潜艇，各载12枚导弹。

Those forces are dwarfed by those of the United States, which is cutting its inventory to 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons by 2018 under the latest arms control agreement with Russia, signed in 2010.

这些军力在美国面前则是小儿科，美国正依照美俄2010年军控条约，在2018年之前将战略核武器裁减至1550枚。

Western forecasts vary of how many Dongfeng-41s China will produce, with 20 to 32 mobile launching systems planned. The mobile launchers make it harder to find and destroy a missile before it is launched, and also raise the possibility that additional missiles could be hidden in storage and used to reload after the initial missile is fired.

西方对中国将生产多少枚DF41众说纷纭，但目前已有投入20到32具移动发射系统的计划。移动发射装置令导弹在发射前更难以被发现和摧毁，此外，这意味着更多的导弹或藏身他处，一批打完再一批。

If each missile has 10 nuclear warheads, that could result in a few hundred to several hundred nuclear weapons.

如果每枚导弹有10个核弹头，这将意味着数百件核武器。

But Tom Z. Collina, the research director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said that China might not actually deploy multiple warheads without first developing and testing smaller warheads. And China signed in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996, agreeing not to conduct further nuclear tests.

但位于华盛顿的武控协会研究主任Tom Z. Collina称，中国也许不会在发展和测试小型核弹头之前就实际部署多弹头导弹。中国在1996年签署了禁止核试验条约，同意不再进行核试验。

“It’s not just an issue of whether they have a missile they could physically lift all those warheads, but whether they could fit all those warheads on a missile,” Mr. Collina said.

Tom Z. Collina表示：＂这不仅仅是他们的导弹能否提升这么多弹头的问题，还在于他们能否将这么多弹头拼装进一个导弹里。＂

The United States has tried to reassure Russia and China that its limited ballistic missile defenses are only designed to shoot down one or a handful of missiles launched by a rogue state. But missile defense advocates in the United States favor more ambitious but also far costlier systems, a spirited debate that has been followed with nervousness in Moscow and Beijing.

美国已试图安抚俄罗斯和中国，称其小规模的弹道导弹防御系统仅针对流氓国家发射的寥寥数枚导弹。但美国国内的导弹防御支持者们则希望建立一个更强大、更烧钱的系统，中俄两国紧张地关注这场激辩。

The United States has been mulling where it can best place additional high-tech radar systems designed to track ballistic missiles. American forces currently have one in northern Japan and others that are deployed from time to time at sea. The Wall Street Journal reported this week on discussions of whether to put two more on land, in southern Japan and in Southeast Asia.

美国正考虑在何处部署用于跟踪弹道导弹的高科技雷达系统。美军目前在日本北部有一个，海上也不时布置了一些。华尔街日报本周报道了关于是否在日本南部和东南亚地区再安排两套系统的讨论。

American officials have said repeatedly that their main concern is North Korea, which has been testing long-range missiles and developing nuclear weapons. But Chinese officials and experts have been deeply suspicious that American missile defense systems are aimed at their country’s forces as well.

美国官员多次声明他们主要关注朝鲜，该国已试射了远程导弹并发展了核武器。但中方官员和专家们深深质疑美国导弹防御系统是否也针对中国。

“I have no doubt that the one of the goals of the missile defenses is to contain threats from North Korea, but objectively speaking, a high-tech expansion of U.S. military biceps impacts China, too,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. He added that discussions have taken place in China on whether to develop missile defense systems as well.

人民大学国际关系教授Shi Yinhong表示：＂导弹防御的目的之一是为了控制来自朝鲜的威胁，这点我不怀疑，但客观地讲，一块美军肌肉的高科技扩张对中国也有影响。＂他还表示，中国已在讨论是否也要发展导弹防御系统。

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/2 ... nalysts-say.html?hp