[0411]印尼《雅加达邮报》中国无法取代美国主导地位

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========================================================
原文地址：
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/04/09/insight-is-china-overtaking-america.html



Insight: Is China overtaking America?
Joseph S. Nye, Jr, Project Syndicate, Cambridge | Sat, 04/09/2011 8:00 AM
印尼《雅加达邮报》中国正在取代美国吗？
２０１１年４月９日


The 21st century is witnessing Asia’s return to what might be considered its historical proportions of the world’s population and economy. In 1800, Asia represented more than half of global population and output. By 1900, it represented only 20 percent of world output — not because something bad happened in Asia, but rather because the Industrial Revolution had transformed Europe and North America into the world’s workshop.
Asia’s recovery began with Japan, then moved to South Korea and on to Southeast Asia, beginning with Singapore and Malaysia. Now the recovery is focused on China, and increasingly involves India, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

21世纪见证了亚洲重回其历史地位的进程，这不仅包括人口，也包括经济地位。在１８００年，亚洲拥有全球一半的人口和生产能力。但到１９００年，它的产出降到世界的２０％，这部分是因为亚洲自身的问题，但主要的是由于工业革命将欧洲和美国转变为世界生产中心。
亚洲的复兴最早始于日本，之后转移到南韩，东南亚的新加坡和马来西亚。现在，复兴的主角是中国，以及越来越重要的印度。在这个过程中，数以亿计的人口脱离了贫困。


This change, however, is also creating anxieties about shifting power relations among states. In 2010, China passed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. Indeed, the investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the Chinese economy’s total size to surpass that of the United States by 2027.
But, even if overall Chinese GDP reaches parity with that of the US in the 2020s, the two economies will not be equal in composition. China would still have a vast underdeveloped countryside. Assuming 6 percent Chinese GDP growth and only 2 percent US growth after 2030, China would not equal the US in terms of per capita income — a better measure of an economy’s sophistication — until sometime near the second half of the century.

这个转变也引发了国力更迭的焦虑。２０１０年，中国超过日本成为世界第二大经济体。高盛投资银行预计中国的经济规模将在２０２７年超过美国。
但是，即使中国的ＧＤＰ总量在２０２０年达到美国的水平，这两个经济体的组成仍然无法很难说是对等的。即时中国仍然会有庞大的落后地区。假设在２０３０年后，中国能保持６％的ＧＤＰ增长率，而美国为２％的话，中国在人均收入方面要想达到美国的水平－－这对于经济成熟度来说是相对更恰当的指标－－仍然需要近５０年的时间。

Moreover, linear projections of economic growth trends can be misleading. Emerging countries tend to benefit from imported technologies in the early stages of economic takeoff, but their growth rates generally slow as they reach higher levels of development. And the Chinese economy faces serious obstacles to sustainable rapid growth, owing to inefficient state-owned enterprises, growing inequality, massive internal migration, an inadequate social safety net, corruption and inadequate institutions, all of which could foster political instability.
China’s north and east have outpaced its south and west. Almost alone among developing countries, China is aging extraordinarily fast. By 2030, China will have more elderly dependents than children. Some Chinese demographers worry that the country will get old before getting rich.

除此外，对经济增长进行简单的线性预测是不恰当地。新兴国家在经济发展初期，得益于引进技术经济可以快速发展，但是在达到一定发展程度后，经济增长速度通常会逐渐减缓。中国快速可持续性增长面临诸多困难，例如：国有企业效率低下，日益加剧的社会不公平（贫富差距？），国内人口大规模迁移（城市化？），社会安全网络缺乏，以及腐败和机构不完善，所有这些都将会加剧政治上的不稳定。
中国的东部和北部的发展快于西部和南部。尽管仍然属于发展中国家，中国的人口老龄化问题严重。到２０３０年，中国的老年人口将超过儿童。一些中国人口专家担心届时可能面临未富先老的问题。

During the past decade, China moved from being the world’s ninth largest exporter to its leader, displacing Germany at the top. But China’s export-led development model will need to be adjusted as global trade and financial balances become more contentious. Indeed, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan is aimed at reducing dependence on exports and boosting domestic demand. Will it work?
China’s political system has thus far shown an impressive capacity to achieve specific targets, for example, staging a successful Olympic Games, building high-speed rail projects, or even stimulating the economy to recover from the global financial crisis. Whether China can maintain this capability over the longer term is a mystery to outsiders and Chinese leaders themselves.

在过去的１０年中，中国取代德国，从第９位跃居世界第１大出口国。但随着各国对世界贸易和金融平衡的争论加剧，中国出口引导的经济发展模式面临调整。实际上，在中国第１２个５年计划中，已经确立目标要减少对出口的依赖并提升国内需求。但这个目标是否能够顺利达成呢？
以往中国的政治模式在完成特定目标时所展示的能力令人印象深刻，例如举办奥运会，建设高速铁路，甚至在全球金融危机中刺激经济快速复苏。但中国是否能够长期保持住这种能力，对于外界和中国领导人自身都是个疑问。

Some analysts argue that China aims to challenge America’s position as the world’s dominant power. Even if this were an accurate assessment of China’s intentions, it is doubtful that China will have the military capability to make this possible.
To be sure, Chinese military expenditures, up more than 12 percent this year, have been growing even more rapidly than its economy. But China’s leaders will have to contend with other countries’ reactions, as well as with the constraints implied by the need for external markets and resources in order to meet their economic-growth objectives.
A Chinese military posture that is too aggressive could produce a countervailing coalition among its neighbors, thereby weakening China’s hard and soft power. In 2010, for example, as China became more assertive in its foreign policy toward its neighbors, its relations with India, Japan, and South Korea suffered. As a result, China will find it more difficult to exclude the US from Asia’s security arrangements.

一些分析者声称中国的目标是挑战美国的全球主导地位。即时这确实是中国的意图，但中国是否能有军事能力实现这个目标也很让人怀疑。
确实，中国军费增长高于其他经济体，今年达到了１２％。但在保证经济增长目标的过程中，中国对外部市场和资源的需求使得他与周边国家的关系越来越紧密，他们的领导人将不得不适应其他国家的反应。
如果中国军事方面过于强硬，可能会导致周边国家联合起来抗衡，最终消弱中国的软硬实力。例如在２０１０年，由于中国在外交上对邻国更加强硬，他和印度、日本与南韩的关系受损，结果是中国发现反而更难阻止美国介入亚洲安全问题。

China’s size and high rate of economic growth will almost certainly increase its relative strength vis-à-vis the US in the coming decades. This will certainly bring the Chinese closer to the US in terms of power resources, but China will not necessarily surpass the US as the most powerful country.
My own estimate is that among the range of possible futures, the more likely scenarios are those in which China gives the US a run for its money, but does not surpass it in overall power in the first half of this century.
Most importantly, the US and China should avoid developing exaggerated fears of each other’s capacities and intentions. The expectation of conflict can itself become a cause of conflict. In reality, China and the US do not have deeply rooted conflicting interests. Both countries, along with others, have much more to gain from cooperation.

未来十年，经济规模和高增长率确实能让中国在国力上更接近美国，但他未必一定能够超越美国成为最强大的国家。
我个人估计在可以预见的将来，虽然中国会构成强大竞争，但在本世纪前５０年内他仍然无法全面超越美国。
最重要的是，中美两国应该避免夸大对方实力和意图造成的威胁。过于执着于预测冲突会真的导致冲突的产生。中美两国现实中并没有根本的利益冲突，双方同其他国家一起合作可以获得更多的利益。本文仅用于翻译练习，请勿用于商业目的。欢迎指正翻译错误。
往期请参见：http://www.docin.com/zczfr
========================================================
原文地址：
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/04/09/insight-is-china-overtaking-america.html



Insight: Is China overtaking America?
Joseph S. Nye, Jr, Project Syndicate, Cambridge | Sat, 04/09/2011 8:00 AM
印尼《雅加达邮报》中国正在取代美国吗？
２０１１年４月９日


The 21st century is witnessing Asia’s return to what might be considered its historical proportions of the world’s population and economy. In 1800, Asia represented more than half of global population and output. By 1900, it represented only 20 percent of world output — not because something bad happened in Asia, but rather because the Industrial Revolution had transformed Europe and North America into the world’s workshop.
Asia’s recovery began with Japan, then moved to South Korea and on to Southeast Asia, beginning with Singapore and Malaysia. Now the recovery is focused on China, and increasingly involves India, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

21世纪见证了亚洲重回其历史地位的进程，这不仅包括人口，也包括经济地位。在１８００年，亚洲拥有全球一半的人口和生产能力。但到１９００年，它的产出降到世界的２０％，这部分是因为亚洲自身的问题，但主要的是由于工业革命将欧洲和美国转变为世界生产中心。
亚洲的复兴最早始于日本，之后转移到南韩，东南亚的新加坡和马来西亚。现在，复兴的主角是中国，以及越来越重要的印度。在这个过程中，数以亿计的人口脱离了贫困。


This change, however, is also creating anxieties about shifting power relations among states. In 2010, China passed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. Indeed, the investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the Chinese economy’s total size to surpass that of the United States by 2027.
But, even if overall Chinese GDP reaches parity with that of the US in the 2020s, the two economies will not be equal in composition. China would still have a vast underdeveloped countryside. Assuming 6 percent Chinese GDP growth and only 2 percent US growth after 2030, China would not equal the US in terms of per capita income — a better measure of an economy’s sophistication — until sometime near the second half of the century.

这个转变也引发了国力更迭的焦虑。２０１０年，中国超过日本成为世界第二大经济体。高盛投资银行预计中国的经济规模将在２０２７年超过美国。
但是，即使中国的ＧＤＰ总量在２０２０年达到美国的水平，这两个经济体的组成仍然无法很难说是对等的。即时中国仍然会有庞大的落后地区。假设在２０３０年后，中国能保持６％的ＧＤＰ增长率，而美国为２％的话，中国在人均收入方面要想达到美国的水平－－这对于经济成熟度来说是相对更恰当的指标－－仍然需要近５０年的时间。

Moreover, linear projections of economic growth trends can be misleading. Emerging countries tend to benefit from imported technologies in the early stages of economic takeoff, but their growth rates generally slow as they reach higher levels of development. And the Chinese economy faces serious obstacles to sustainable rapid growth, owing to inefficient state-owned enterprises, growing inequality, massive internal migration, an inadequate social safety net, corruption and inadequate institutions, all of which could foster political instability.
China’s north and east have outpaced its south and west. Almost alone among developing countries, China is aging extraordinarily fast. By 2030, China will have more elderly dependents than children. Some Chinese demographers worry that the country will get old before getting rich.

除此外，对经济增长进行简单的线性预测是不恰当地。新兴国家在经济发展初期，得益于引进技术经济可以快速发展，但是在达到一定发展程度后，经济增长速度通常会逐渐减缓。中国快速可持续性增长面临诸多困难，例如：国有企业效率低下，日益加剧的社会不公平（贫富差距？），国内人口大规模迁移（城市化？），社会安全网络缺乏，以及腐败和机构不完善，所有这些都将会加剧政治上的不稳定。
中国的东部和北部的发展快于西部和南部。尽管仍然属于发展中国家，中国的人口老龄化问题严重。到２０３０年，中国的老年人口将超过儿童。一些中国人口专家担心届时可能面临未富先老的问题。

During the past decade, China moved from being the world’s ninth largest exporter to its leader, displacing Germany at the top. But China’s export-led development model will need to be adjusted as global trade and financial balances become more contentious. Indeed, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan is aimed at reducing dependence on exports and boosting domestic demand. Will it work?
China’s political system has thus far shown an impressive capacity to achieve specific targets, for example, staging a successful Olympic Games, building high-speed rail projects, or even stimulating the economy to recover from the global financial crisis. Whether China can maintain this capability over the longer term is a mystery to outsiders and Chinese leaders themselves.

在过去的１０年中，中国取代德国，从第９位跃居世界第１大出口国。但随着各国对世界贸易和金融平衡的争论加剧，中国出口引导的经济发展模式面临调整。实际上，在中国第１２个５年计划中，已经确立目标要减少对出口的依赖并提升国内需求。但这个目标是否能够顺利达成呢？
以往中国的政治模式在完成特定目标时所展示的能力令人印象深刻，例如举办奥运会，建设高速铁路，甚至在全球金融危机中刺激经济快速复苏。但中国是否能够长期保持住这种能力，对于外界和中国领导人自身都是个疑问。

Some analysts argue that China aims to challenge America’s position as the world’s dominant power. Even if this were an accurate assessment of China’s intentions, it is doubtful that China will have the military capability to make this possible.
To be sure, Chinese military expenditures, up more than 12 percent this year, have been growing even more rapidly than its economy. But China’s leaders will have to contend with other countries’ reactions, as well as with the constraints implied by the need for external markets and resources in order to meet their economic-growth objectives.
A Chinese military posture that is too aggressive could produce a countervailing coalition among its neighbors, thereby weakening China’s hard and soft power. In 2010, for example, as China became more assertive in its foreign policy toward its neighbors, its relations with India, Japan, and South Korea suffered. As a result, China will find it more difficult to exclude the US from Asia’s security arrangements.

一些分析者声称中国的目标是挑战美国的全球主导地位。即时这确实是中国的意图，但中国是否能有军事能力实现这个目标也很让人怀疑。
确实，中国军费增长高于其他经济体，今年达到了１２％。但在保证经济增长目标的过程中，中国对外部市场和资源的需求使得他与周边国家的关系越来越紧密，他们的领导人将不得不适应其他国家的反应。
如果中国军事方面过于强硬，可能会导致周边国家联合起来抗衡，最终消弱中国的软硬实力。例如在２０１０年，由于中国在外交上对邻国更加强硬，他和印度、日本与南韩的关系受损，结果是中国发现反而更难阻止美国介入亚洲安全问题。

China’s size and high rate of economic growth will almost certainly increase its relative strength vis-à-vis the US in the coming decades. This will certainly bring the Chinese closer to the US in terms of power resources, but China will not necessarily surpass the US as the most powerful country.
My own estimate is that among the range of possible futures, the more likely scenarios are those in which China gives the US a run for its money, but does not surpass it in overall power in the first half of this century.
Most importantly, the US and China should avoid developing exaggerated fears of each other’s capacities and intentions. The expectation of conflict can itself become a cause of conflict. In reality, China and the US do not have deeply rooted conflicting interests. Both countries, along with others, have much more to gain from cooperation.

未来十年，经济规模和高增长率确实能让中国在国力上更接近美国，但他未必一定能够超越美国成为最强大的国家。
我个人估计在可以预见的将来，虽然中国会构成强大竞争，但在本世纪前５０年内他仍然无法全面超越美国。
最重要的是，中美两国应该避免夸大对方实力和意图造成的威胁。过于执着于预测冲突会真的导致冲突的产生。中美两国现实中并没有根本的利益冲突，双方同其他国家一起合作可以获得更多的利益。