以色列有核武器吗？

原子弹应该有，其他的够呛

核武器一定要试验吧。以色列那么小，在自己国土上搞核试验能行吗？租用其他国家领土？我记得以前看到说他们的载具是导弹，那么导弹和核弹头结合的试验更需要空间吧

有大侠愿意给菜鸟科普下吗

不是据说在南非试验过吗

有链接不？

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel

据说有200多枚，比TG还多，基本上以色列TG英法四国的核武器数量是一个级别的，位列美俄之后的第二集团。

据DIA 1999年的估计，以色列有约80枚核弹头。
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/

在南非附近的海里实验过,被MD的卫星拍了照{:cha:}

g_rabbit 发表于 2010-7-15 22:19


    氢弹的威力比原子弹大多了。而且很多小型化技术，导弹结合技术，我不认为以色列都搞懂了。

红色俱乐部 发表于 2010-7-16 08:48


    以色列的核弹够炸平中东就够了，洲际导弹和氢弹根本没必要

油太国应该有核武器，但是只有原子弹。前几年某著名媒体采访油太国总理时，油太国总理默认油太国有核武。而且很多证据表明油太国早在上世纪70年代就开始了核武的研制。

eastsuper 发表于 2010-7-14 23:02

不可能。钻石国虽然曾经造出了6枚原子弹，但是没有进行试验。油太国如果在钻石国实验，肯定会被侦测到。

g_rabbit 发表于 2010-7-15 22:19


土鳖的核武总数肯定在4位数。

金神大赌场 发表于 2010-7-16 05:18

有没有相关资料？

回复 16# 大侧斜螺旋桨

传说是以色列、南非、台湾等几个人类社会的弃儿合伙研制的。
台湾的原子弹技术就来源于此实验，后来张宪义叛逃事件泄露的就是台湾从这里获得的原子弹技术。

传说在南非周边海域和南非合作进行了核试验。
南非种族和解后，放弃了核武，只是不知道是否有解密当时的档案

有也不告诉你~

金神大赌场 发表于 2010-7-16 10:35


    犹太人的智慧是毋庸置疑的。

大侧斜螺旋桨 发表于 2010-7-16 10:41


    Vela Incident

The Vela Incident (sometimes referred to as the South Atlantic Flash) was an unidentified "double flash" of light that was detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on September 22, 1979.

Some specialists who examined the data speculated that the double flash, characteristic of a nuclear explosion, may have been the result of a nuclear weapons test: "The conclusions of the Presidential panel (the Ad Hoc Panel) were reassuring, as they suggested that the most likely explanation of the Vela detection was a meteoroid hitting the satellite — in part because of the discrepancy in bhangmeter readings. Others who examined the data, including Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the national laboratories, and defense contractors reached a very different conclusion — that the data supported the conclusion that on 22 September 1979, Vela 6911 had detected a nuclear detonation."[1][2]

However, it has never been ruled out that the "double flash" signal might have been a spurious electronic signal that was generated by an aging detector in an old satellite. No corroboration of an explosion, such as the presence of nuclear wastes in the air, was ever made, although there were numerous passes in the area by U.S. Air Force planes that were specifically designed to detect airborne radioactive dust.

It was also noted that some meteoroids as they enter the atmosphere produce explosive bursts measured from several kilotons of TNT (the Eastern Mediterranean Event) to megatons of TNT (the Tunguska Event). However in such cases the physical manifestations are normally distinct from those that were observed, since single meteors do not produce the double flash characteristic of a nuclear detonation.

Detection

The "double flash" was detected on September 22, 1979, at 00:53 GMT, by the American Vela Hotel satellite 6911, which carried various sensors that had been designed specifically to detect nuclear explosions. In addition to being able to detect gamma rays, x-rays, and neutrons, the satellite also contained two silicon solid-state bhangmeter sensors that would be able to detect the dual light flashes associated with a nuclear explosion—to be specific the initial brief, intense flash, followed by the second longer flash.[2]

The satellite reported the characteristic double flash of an atmospheric nuclear explosion of two to three kilotons, in the Indian Ocean between Bouvet Island (a very small, uninhabited Norwegian possession) and the Prince Edward Islands which belong to South Africa at 47°S 40°E / 47°S 40°E / -47; 40Coordinates: 47°S 40°E / 47°S 40°E / -47; 40. Early technical speculation also examined the possibility that the Vela had recorded a combination of natural phenomena, such as lightning in conjunction with a meteor strike. Other early news media articles of the time discussed the possibility of a large object strike, such as an asteroid, occurring.[3]
Vela-5A/B Satellites in Clean Room. The two satellites are separated after launch.

There is much doubt[4] as to whether the satellite's observations were accurate. The Vela Hotel 6911 satellite was one of a pair that had been launched on May 23, 1969, over ten years before the "double-flash" event, and this satellite was already more than two years beyond its so-called "design lifetime". This satellite was known to have a failed electromagnetic pulse (EMP) sensor, and it had developed a fault (in July 1972) in its recording memory, but that fault had cleared itself by March 1978.

The initial assessment by the National Security Council (NSC), with technical support by the Naval Research Laboratory[5] in October 1979[6] was that the American intelligence community had "high confidence" that the event was a low-yield nuclear explosion, although no radioactive debris had ever been detected, and there was "no corroborating seismic or hydro-acoustic data."[6] A later NSC report revised this position to "a position of agnosticism" about whether a test had occurred or not.[7] The NSC concluded that responsibility for a nuclear explosion, if any, should be ascribed to the Republic of South Africa.[6][7] Later, the Administration of President Carter asked the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to convene a panel of instrumentation experts to re-examine the Vela Hotel 6911 data, and to attempt to determine whether the optical flash detected came from a nuclear test.

Several U.S. Air Force WC-135B surveillance aircraft flew 25 sorties over that area of the Indian Ocean soon after the "double flash" was reported, but they failed to detect any sign of nuclear radiation.[8] However the WC-135 aircraft never entered the low-pressure air mass that had been over the suspicious area at the time of the light flashes. Low levels of iodine-131 (a short-half-life product of nuclear fission) were reportedly detected in the thyroid glands of sheep in the South Eastern Australian States of Victoria and Tasmania soon after the "detection" of the light flashes. Studies of wind patterns confirmed that fall-out from an explosion in the southern Indian Ocean could have been carried from there to southwestern Australia.[9]

The Arecibo ionospheric observatory and radio telescope in Puerto Rico detected an anomalous ionospheric wave during the morning of September 22, 1979, which moved from the southeast to the northwest, something that had been unobserved there before by the scientists.[citation needed]
[edit] Office of Science and Technology Evaluation

An independent panel of scientific and engineering experts was commissioned by Frank Press, who was the Science Advisor to President Carter and the chairman of the OSTP, to evaluate the evidence and determine the likelihood that the event was a nuclear detonation. The chairman of this science panel itself was Dr. Jack Ruina of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and also the former director of the U.S. Department of Defense's Advanced Research Projects Agency. Reporting in the summer of 1980, the panel noted that there were some key differences in the detected optical signature from that of an actual nuclear explosion, particularly in the ratio of intensities measured by the two detectors on the satellite. Also, although the brightness of the flash was explainable only if the flash had occurred in a cloud-free area, the lack of any nuclear debris found by 25 Air Force WC-135 flights through the area could be explained if the detonation had occurred at a heavily-overcast site.

"Based on our experience in related scientific assessments," it was their collective judgment that the signal was spurious. The science panel's conclusion was that the signal "was probably not from a nuclear explosion, although we cannot rule out that this signal was of nuclear origin." The now-declassified report[1] contains details of the measurements made by the Vela Hotel satellite. The science panel was not able to reach a definitive conclusion on the origin of the "light flashes". The best analysis that they could do of the data suggested that, if the sensors were properly calibrated, any source of the "light flashes" was about 30 meters from the satellite (and hence it was a small event close up, not a big event far away). This was consistent with the hypothesis that a micrometeoroid had struck the satellite, ejecting a small cloud of dusty debris into space, and this had reflected sunlight into the sensors.

The fact that the explosion was picked up by only one of the two Vela satellites seems to support the science panel's assertion. The Vela satellites had previously detected 41 atmospheric tests - by countries such as France and the PRC - each of which was subsequently confirmed by other means, including testing for radioactive fallout. The absence of any such corroboration of a nuclear origin for the Vela Incident also suggests that the "double flash" signal was a spurious one.

Victor Gilinsky (former member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) attempted to cast doubt on the science panel's findings, arguing that its members were politically motivated.[10] There was some data that seemed to confirm that a nuclear explosion was the source for the "double flash" signal. There the "anomalous" traveling ionospheric disturbance that was measured at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico at the same time,[10] but that is many thousands of miles away in a different hemisphere of the Earth. A test in Western Australia conducted a few months later found some increased nuclear radiation levels.[11] However, a detailed study done by New Zealand's National Radiation Laboratory found no such evidence of excess radioactivity, and neither did a U.S. Government-funded nuclear laboratory.[12] Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists who worked on the Vela Hotel program have professed their conviction that the Vela Hotel satellite's detectors worked properly.[13][10]
[edit] Possible responsible parties

If a nuclear explosion did occur, it occurred within the 3000-mile-wide (4,800 km diameter) circle covering parts of the Indian Ocean, the South Atlantic, the southern tip of Africa, and a small part of Antarctica.[14]
[edit] South Africa

The Republic of South Africa did have a nuclear weapons program at the time, and it falls within that geographic location. Nevertheless, since the fall of apartheid, South Africa has disclosed most of the information on its nuclear weapons program, and according to international inspections and the ensuing International Atomic Energy Agency report, South Africa could not have constructed such a nuclear bomb until November 1979, two months after the "double flash" incident. Furthermore, the IAEA reported that all possible South African nuclear bombs had been accounted for. A Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report dated January 21, 1980, that was produced for the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency concluded that:[15]

    "In sum, State/INR finds the arguments that South Africa conducted a nuclear test on 22 September inconclusive, even though, if a nuclear explosion occurred on that date, South Africa is the most likely candidate for responsibility."

The United Nations Security Council Resolution 418 of 4 November 1977 introduced a mandatory arms embargo against South Africa, which also required all states to refrain from "any co-operation with South Africa in the manufacture and development of nuclear weapons".[16]
[edit] Israel

Well before the Vela Incident, American intelligence agencies had made the assessment that Israel probably possessed its own nuclear weapons.[17] In the 2008 book The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman stated their opinion that the "double flash" was the result of a joint South African-Israeli nuclear bomb test.[18] David Albright stated in his article about the "double flash" event in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that "If the 1979 flash was caused by a test, most experts agree it was probably an Israeli test".[19]

In 2010, The Guardian released South African government documents that it alleged revealed an Israeli offer to sell Apartheid South Africa nuclear weapons.[20][21] Israel categorically denied these allegations and said that the documents were minutes from a meeting which did not indicate any offer for a sale of nuclear weapons.[22]
[edit] India

India had carried out a nuclear test in 1974 (see Smiling Buddha). The possibility that India would test a weapon was considered, since it would be possible for the Indian Navy to operate in those waters so far south, but this was dismissed as impractical and unnecessary.[23]
[edit] France

Since the "double flash", if one existed, could have occurred not very far to the west of the French-owned Kerguelen Islands, it is possible that the French were testing a small neutron bomb[14] or other small tactical nuclear bomb.
[edit] Subsequent developments

Since 1980 some small amounts of new information have emerged. However, most questions remain unanswered:

    * Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory report "Evaluation of Some Geophysical Events on 22 September 1979," LA-8672, issued in April 1981 notes:

          "TIROS-N plasma data and related geophysical data measured on 22 September 1979 were analyzed to determine whether the electron precipitation event detected by TIROS-N at 00:54:49 universal time could have been related to a surface nuclear burst (SNB). The occurrence of such a burst was inferred from light signals detected by two Vela bhangmeters -2 min before the TIROS-N event. We found the precipitation to be unusually large but not unique. It probably resulted from passage of TIROS-N through the precipitating electrons above a pre-existing auroral arc that may have brightened to an unusually high intensity from natural causes -3 min before the Vela signals....We conclude that such an event, although rare, is not unique and, furthermore, that this particular event was associated with an auroral arc that probably existed before the Vela event. Although it may be argued that the segment of the arc sampled by the TIROS-N was intensified by a SNB, we find no evidence to support this thesis or to suggest that the observation was anything but the result of natural magnetospheric processes."[24]

    * In October 1984, a National Intelligence Estimate on the South African nuclear program noted:

          "There is still considerable disagreement within the Intelligence Community as to whether the flash in the South Atlantic detected by a US [...] satellite in September 1979 was a nuclear test, and if so, by South Africa. If the latter, the need for South Africa to test a device during the time frame of this Estimate is significantly diminished."[25]

      A shorter form of this wording was used in a subsequent National Intelligence Council memorandum of September, 1985.[26]

    * In February 1994, Commodore Dieter Gerhardt, a convicted Soviet spy and the commander of South Africa's Simon's Town naval base at the time, talked about the incident upon his release from prison. He said:

          "Although I was not directly involved in planning or carrying out the operation, I learned unofficially that the flash was produced by an Israeli-South African test, code-named Operation Phoenix. The explosion was clean and was not supposed to be detected. But they were not as smart as they thought, and the weather changed – so the Americans were able to pick it up."[27]

      Gerhardt further stated that no South African naval vessels had been involved, and that he had no first-hand knowledge of a nuclear test.

    * On April 20, 1997, the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz quoted the South African Deputy Foreign Minister, Aziz Pahad, as supposedly confirming that the "double flash" from over the Indian Ocean was indeed from a South African nuclear test. Haaretz also cited past reports that Israel had purchased 550 tons of uranium from South Africa for its own nuclear plant in Dimona. In exchange, Israel allegedly supplied South Africa with nuclear weapons design information and nuclear materials to increase the power of nuclear warheads.[28] This statement was confirmed by the United States Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa,[13][29] but Pahad's press secretary stated that Pahad had said only that "there was a strong rumor that a test had taken place, and that it should be investigated". In other words – he was merely repeating rumors that had been circulating for years.[30][31] David Albright, commenting on the stir created by this press report, stated:[30]

          "The U.S. government should declassify additional information about the event. A thorough public airing of the existing information could resolve the controversy."

    * In October 1999, a white paper that was published by the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee in opposition to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty stated:

          "There remains uncertainty about whether the South Atlantic flash in September 1979 recorded by optical sensors on the U.S. Vela satellite was a nuclear detonation and, if so, to whom it belonged."[32]

    * In his 2006 book On the Brink, the retired C.I.A. clandestine service officer, Tyler Drumheller, wrote of his 1983–88 tour-of-duty in South Africa:

          "We had operational successes, most importantly regarding Pretoria's nuclear capability. My sources collectively provided incontrovertible evidence that the apartheid government had in fact tested a nuclear bomb in the South Atlantic in 1979, and that they had developed a delivery system with assistance from the Israelis."

    * Some related American information has been declassified in the form of heavily redacted reports and memoranda following applications made under the Freedom of Information Act; on May 5, 2006, many of these declassified documents were made available through the National Security Archive.[2]

    * In May 2010, The Guardian published a set of declassified documents apparently detailing a nuclear agreement between Israel and South Africa signed in 1975.[33][34] Israel's President Shimon Peres released a statement denying the allegations, stating:

          "Israel did not conduct any negotiations for the sale of nuclear weapons to South Africa and none of the aforementioned documents are original signed Israeli documents that confirm the existence of such talks of such negotiations"[35]

      President Peres, who was Israel's defence minister at the time, appears to have signed the document.[36]

[edit] In popular culture

    * The Vela Incident formed the basis for a novel by Abe Ariel titled The Last War. The novel describes the test of an Israeli neutron bomb on an uncharted island.[37]
    * The Vela Incident is the basis of a 2005 novel by Scott E. Douglas, Moby and Ahab on a Plutonium Sea: The Novel Which Ended the Cold War.[38]
    * The Vela Incident is briefly featured at the beginning of Richard Hermann book, Firebreak [39]

1979年美国专门探测核试验的Vela卫星(这个卫星曾经探测到TG和高炉鸡的核试验) 在南大西洋探测到不明来历的闪光

在种种证据证明下,证实是一次核试验

图一: 地点就在爱德华王子群岛附近(东经037°51′09″，南纬46°46′23″)

图二: Vela-5A/B卫星

著名的双闪光事件！

大侧斜螺旋桨 发表于 2010-7-16 10:40


    老大，四位数，你.............{:3_77:}

Waldo Stumpf（南非原子能集团的前首席执行官，南非核弹计划的负责人）明确指出，以色列科学家并没有参与南非核计划。

“维拉事件”（1979年9月22日）目前仍无定论，而学界普遍倾向于“非核爆”这个解释。如果南非（还有以色列）成功进行了那次核试验，且不论只有（一颗）维拉卫星发现“双闪光”，至今没有任何地质信号、水声信号、放射性尘埃（美国WC-135B飞机立刻出动，7天内25架次、飞行时间230.4小时，没有收集到任何辐射沉降）。如果南非与以色列要用这（唯一的）一次核试验来保证他们的核武器设计的质量，收集水声、地震、沉降数据将是确定当量与武器效能的唯一机会。很难想象，两国精心设计一次核试验来降低自己采集核爆数据的机会，虽然可以保密，不也是浪费这次核试验吗？

有兴趣可以看看美国情报机构2006年解密的15份报告：http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/index.htm

有原子弹必然要试验，不然技术上检查毕竟让人不放心，应该是南非和以色列在这个方面合作技术，南非提供场地，不过爆炸成功后，南非民族和解，自废武功，以色列则是独自享受了试验成果，但是如果实验真的只进行了一次，那么以色列应该只是具备原子弹的制作技术，而且我很怀疑它甚至能不能掌握小型化的技术。

JK-SETI 发表于 2010-7-16 23:40


    上面英文文章里的举证说了，事件后几个月内澳洲有两个州的羊在甲状腺内测试出同位素，而且在当天早晨，波多尼国的Arecibo天文台也探测到电离层异常波

这些间接的证据比美国解密的要靠普，你怎么知道美国政府没有隐瞒？

hongyi 发表于 2010-7-14 22:52


    别的都是废话，看看以色列在今年美国的核裁军会议如何表现就知道了。

金神大赌场 发表于 2010-7-17 02:57

米帝一直对油太国搞核武器持纵容态度。

回复 3# hongyi


   
关键词：南非

金神大赌场 发表于 2010-7-17 02:57

虽然是用Wiki的材料，但是你想用，我们就用一下：However, a detailed study done by New Zealand's National Radiation Laboratory found no such evidence of excess radioactivity, and neither did a U.S. Government-funded nuclear laboratory.（新西兰国家放射实验室与一所美国官方核实验室都没有发现超量放射性）

关于阿雷西伯天文台的观测，电离层扰动如果是核爆炸产生的，其高度就应该比较高；但是用来解释无放射性沉降的理由之一就是在低空水面上的核爆（于是有rainout，也就防止了放射尘的远距输送）。于是这两点相互矛盾。

进一步来说，南非已知的核武器库是由枪法铀弹构成的，计算当量为10kt-18kt，这个范围应该不算是“维拉事件”（1979年9月22日）中预设的所谓“低当量核装置”。而且已知的以色列核装置是内爆法的钚弹（这个从一开始以色列使用反应堆后处理而不是铀浓缩的方法时，就被决定了）。很难想象，这唯一一次核试验后：1，南非仍使用一种不需要核试验的核弹设计，2，以色列与南非的核弹设计路线仍然完全不同。

最后，瓦努努1985年离开迪摩纳时，以色列至少已经掌握了壳层（千层饼构型）的固体助爆（氘化锂）裂变弹，且不论“迪摩纳设施生产氚”是不是意味着以色列已经拥有了气体助爆的能力。反观南非，如果1979年9月22日是有南非参与的一次核试验，该国却在1982年才制造出第一枚原型枪法铀弹（这种设计被普遍认为不需要核试验），关于助爆设计，南非进行的是枪法助爆研究（与以色列的内爆弹完全不同），而且一上来就是用氚（气体助爆），更重要的是南非并没有能操作氚的必要车间与设备。

当然，懂技术的专家们现在的观点是“无法确证，也无法证伪”，所以我自然不能说“绝对不是核试验”，只是提醒——不要“想当然”——而已。

相关的有用资料：

IAEA的南非核武器计划史：
http://www.iaea.org/About/Policy ... sh/gc37-1075_en.pdf

南非核武器的相关分析：
http://isis-online.org/isis-repo ... ret-nuclear-weapons

瓦努努透露的以色列核车间的情况：
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/barnaby.pdf

维拉事件确有可能是以色列在南非远海进行的一次空投战术核弹试验，不可否认的是，低空核爆炸对电离层确实有影响，只是范围较小，对此国内外都有广泛研究。

以色列拥有实用化核武器应当没什么疑问，但是以色列内爆法原子弹不可缺少的核试验是在哪儿做的？这倒是个疑问。以色列国内绝对不行，只能在国外，那么有两个可能：一是在美国，二是在南非。

大侧斜螺旋桨 发表于 2010-7-16 10:40

大侧斜螺旋桨 发表于 2010-7-16 10:40

不一定，但我们有快速制造的技术，谈数量已经没多大意义了。

金神大赌场 发表于 2010-7-16 05:18


    海里？一般在陆地上做实验都会测到地球这震动的信号吧。如果海里可以测到吗？核爆炸后的粉尘还有电磁波等苏联没有检测到吗？另外需要海域划一个区做实验吧。我想核试验这东西应该藏不住。

有。

回复 29# 我乃汝儿


    以前听说以色列是核模糊策略。如果不承认有核武器也要参加核裁军会议吗？不是美俄几个大国参加吗》？

回复 27# 红色俱乐部


    26楼JK的回复你看下