超级军网中国碳排放将超过美国
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 17:39:47
英国《金融时报》马利德(Richard McGregor)北京报道
2007年4月23日 星期一
2007年4月23日 星期一
想知道为什么全世界应当关注中国经济及其两位数增长倾向的人，可能已经在4月19日找到了答案。但地点不是在北京，而是在巴黎的国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)。
国际能源机构表示，中国可能在今年或2008年取代美国，成为世界第一大温室气体排放国。这一时间比该机构最近预计的2009年至少提前了12个月。今年第一季度，中国经济增速达11.1%。
国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫•比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示：“如果中国的煤消费量继续以惊人的速度增长，这个日期可能远远早于2009年。”
中国人均二氧化碳排放量仍然相对较低，约为经合组织(OECD)国家的八分之一。但比罗尔博士表示，如果中国未来25年持续强劲增长，其二氧化碳排放量将在2030年达到其它所有工业国家总和的2倍。
中国的崛起已给全球经济带来了革命性影响，其廉价电器和服装为全世界消费者带来了好处，也使数百万本国居民脱离了贫困。中国国家统计局(NBS)日前在北京宣布，火热的中国经济在2007年第一季度继续加速。这表明，中国将继续在未来数年里震撼全球市场。
但人们可以从中国国家统计局的数据中，了解中国目前的增长模式，以及国际能源机构做出上述预测的理由。
今年一季度，中国能源密集型产业的产出迅速增长。钢材、氧化铝、铝和铁合金的产量分别较去年增长26.2%、53.7%、43.0%和44.4%。如此高的增速生动地说明，中国政府几年来侧重于控制这些行业及其对原材料和电力使用的政策，几乎没有收到效果。
未来，中国的城市化进程和对新增电力的需求，也将成为能源消耗与排放量继续增加的重要因素。中国主要利用煤炭发电。
对于这个问题的紧迫性以及控制政策迄今收效甚微的事实，中国政府并不回避。
中国国家统计局新闻发言人李晓超表示：“从目前来看，各地区、各部门都在认真落实中央关于节能降耗的一系列方针政策，工作可以说取得了一定的积极进展。”
“但也应该看到，节能降耗的任务还很艰巨。我们目前的经济结构……重工的倾向比较明显，耗能高的产业增长比较快。”
李晓超援引了他称为令人宽慰的数字——即沿海地区的投资增长相对放缓，而相比之下，中国着力发展的较贫困内陆省份的投资规模有所增加。
他还指出，国内零售额和居民消费有所提高。中国一直试图鼓励国内消费，以减少经济增长对出口和投资的依赖。
但经济学家表示，这些数字并不意味着经济真正趋向平衡。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻北京经济学家沈明高指出：“中国经济继续以传统方式增长。”
近几周，北京有传言称，中国政府准备宣布新的总体经济政策，以加快经济结构改革，甚至不惜以暂时的经济放缓为代价。
统计局宣布国内生产总值(GDP)数据的新闻发布会推迟举行，以及指定级别较低的官员李晓超而非统计局局长主持新闻发布会，更对这些传言起到了推波助澜的作用。
然而，李晓超并未暗示中国经济即将发生短期剧烈震荡。
李晓超指出：“在继续加强和改善宏观调控方面，我们很重要的经验就是注意不要采取力度过大的调控措施，而是微量、小步、频调，目的就是防止经济的硬着陆。”
尽管中国政府拒绝允许人民币以高于每年4%到5%的速度升值，但它近日采取措施，减少了对出口的鼓励政策，特别是对钢铁和纺织品行业。
不过，驻华经济学家认为加速采取政策措施的可能性不大。他们指出，中国政府领导人渴望看到经济增长的好处，高增长率恰恰符合他们的心愿。
经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海经济学家安迪•罗思曼(Andy Rothman)指出：“这会让共产党领导层高兴——如果没有强劲的经济增长和大量新增就会机会，会很难创建‘和谐社会'。”
译者/何黎
英国《金融时报》马利德(Richard McGregor)北京报道 2007年4月23日 星期一
想知道为什么全世界应当关注中国经济及其两位数增长倾向的人，可能已经在4月19日找到了答案。但地点不是在北京，而是在巴黎的国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)。
国际能源机构表示，中国可能在今年或2008年取代美国，成为世界第一大温室气体排放国。这一时间比该机构最近预计的2009年至少提前了12个月。今年第一季度，中国经济增速达11.1%。
国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫•比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示：“如果中国的煤消费量继续以惊人的速度增长，这个日期可能远远早于2009年。”
中国人均二氧化碳排放量仍然相对较低，约为经合组织(OECD)国家的八分之一。但比罗尔博士表示，如果中国未来25年持续强劲增长，其二氧化碳排放量将在2030年达到其它所有工业国家总和的2倍。
中国的崛起已给全球经济带来了革命性影响，其廉价电器和服装为全世界消费者带来了好处，也使数百万本国居民脱离了贫困。中国国家统计局(NBS)日前在北京宣布，火热的中国经济在2007年第一季度继续加速。这表明，中国将继续在未来数年里震撼全球市场。
但人们可以从中国国家统计局的数据中，了解中国目前的增长模式，以及国际能源机构做出上述预测的理由。
今年一季度，中国能源密集型产业的产出迅速增长。钢材、氧化铝、铝和铁合金的产量分别较去年增长26.2%、53.7%、43.0%和44.4%。如此高的增速生动地说明，中国政府几年来侧重于控制这些行业及其对原材料和电力使用的政策，几乎没有收到效果。
未来，中国的城市化进程和对新增电力的需求，也将成为能源消耗与排放量继续增加的重要因素。中国主要利用煤炭发电。
对于这个问题的紧迫性以及控制政策迄今收效甚微的事实，中国政府并不回避。
中国国家统计局新闻发言人李晓超表示：“从目前来看，各地区、各部门都在认真落实中央关于节能降耗的一系列方针政策，工作可以说取得了一定的积极进展。”
“但也应该看到，节能降耗的任务还很艰巨。我们目前的经济结构……重工的倾向比较明显，耗能高的产业增长比较快。”
李晓超援引了他称为令人宽慰的数字——即沿海地区的投资增长相对放缓，而相比之下，中国着力发展的较贫困内陆省份的投资规模有所增加。
他还指出，国内零售额和居民消费有所提高。中国一直试图鼓励国内消费，以减少经济增长对出口和投资的依赖。
但经济学家表示，这些数字并不意味着经济真正趋向平衡。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻北京经济学家沈明高指出：“中国经济继续以传统方式增长。”
近几周，北京有传言称，中国政府准备宣布新的总体经济政策，以加快经济结构改革，甚至不惜以暂时的经济放缓为代价。
统计局宣布国内生产总值(GDP)数据的新闻发布会推迟举行，以及指定级别较低的官员李晓超而非统计局局长主持新闻发布会，更对这些传言起到了推波助澜的作用。
然而，李晓超并未暗示中国经济即将发生短期剧烈震荡。
李晓超指出：“在继续加强和改善宏观调控方面，我们很重要的经验就是注意不要采取力度过大的调控措施，而是微量、小步、频调，目的就是防止经济的硬着陆。”
尽管中国政府拒绝允许人民币以高于每年4%到5%的速度升值，但它近日采取措施，减少了对出口的鼓励政策，特别是对钢铁和纺织品行业。
不过，驻华经济学家认为加速采取政策措施的可能性不大。他们指出，中国政府领导人渴望看到经济增长的好处，高增长率恰恰符合他们的心愿。
经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海经济学家安迪•罗思曼(Andy Rothman)指出：“这会让共产党领导层高兴——如果没有强劲的经济增长和大量新增就会机会，会很难创建‘和谐社会'。”
译者/何黎
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Monday, April 23, 2007
Anyone looking for why the world should care about China's economy and its propensity to grow at double-digit rates may have found it not in Beijing on the 19th April, but in Paris, at the International Energy Agency.
According to the IEA, the country – whose economy expanded by 11.1 per cent in the first quater – could overtake the US as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases this year or in 2008. This is at least 12 months earlier than its recent estimate of 2009.
“If Chinese coal consumption continues to surprise us [on the up side], it could be well before 2009,” said Fatih Birol, chief IEA economist.
China's CO2 emissions per capita remain relatively small, about an eighth of those in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. But if China maintains strong growth for the next quarter of a century its emissions alone until 2030 will be double that of all other industrialised countries combined, said Dr Birol.
China's rise has already had a transformational impact on the global economy, bringing benefits to consumers around the world with cheap appliances and clothes, while lifting millions of its own citizens out of poverty. The announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing that its already red-hot economy accelerated in the first three months of 2007 confirms that China will continue to shake global markets for years to come.
But buried in the NBS figures is a description of the way China is growing, and the reason for the IEA estimate of greenhouse gas emissions.
The production of energy-intensive industries in the first quarter expanded rapidly. Rolled steel production was up on last year by 26 per cent, alumina by 54 per cent, aluminium by 43 per cent and ferro-alloys by 44 per cent. Such growth rates are especially telling as the government has for some years given priority to policies to control such industries and their use of raw materials and power, to little effect.
In future, Chinese urbanisation and the need for extra electricity, mostly fuelled by coal, will also be big contributors to energy consumption and emissions.
Beijing is shy about neither the urgency of the problem nor the fact that policies have so far made little impact.
“At the current stage, different departments and regions are implementing the reduction of energy and pollution emission policies proactively and there are some achievements,” said Li Xiaochao, the spokesman for China's statistics bureau.
“However, we should see that the task of energy and pollution emission reduction is still huge. The current economic structure is still relying on heavy industrial sectors, and the development of the energy-intensive sector is very fast.”
Mr Li did cite what he said were heartening figures – the relatively slow rates of investment on the coast, compared with the larger amounts spent inland, in the poorer provinces China is trying to develop.
He also pointed to higher retail sales and consumption, something China has been trying to encourage to reduce reliance on exports and investment for growth.
But economists said those figures did not amount to a genuine rebalancing of the economy. “The Chinese economy has continued to grow in a traditional fashion,” said Minggao Shen of Citigroup in Beijing.
Beijing has been awash with rumours in recent weeks that the government is preparing to announce new headline policies to hasten structural change in the economy, perhaps even at the cost of temporarily slowing growth.
These rumours were fuelled by a delay in the statistics bureau press conference to announce the figures for gross domestic product, and the assignation of Mr Li, a relatively junior official, to do the briefing, instead of the chief of the agency.
Mr Li, however, gave no indication that a short, sharp shock for the economy was in the offing.
“When we strengthen the macro controls, we are alert to the fact that these kinds of measures should not be drastic ones,” said Mr Li. “We prefer fine-tuning and making frequent changes. That is the way to guard against the hard landing of the economy.”
While refusing to allow the renminbi to appreciate much faster than 4-5 per cent a year, Beijing has taken steps lately to reduce incentives for exports, especially of steel and textiles.
But China-based economists played down the likelihood of acceleration of policy measures, saying high growth rates were exactly what was wanted by leaders eager to see the benefits of economic growth spread.
“This will make the Communist party leadership happy – it's hard to create a ‘harmonious society' without strong growth and job creation,” said Andy Rothman, of CLSA, the brokerage, in Shanghai.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Anyone looking for why the world should care about China's economy and its propensity to grow at double-digit rates may have found it not in Beijing on the 19th April, but in Paris, at the International Energy Agency.
According to the IEA, the country – whose economy expanded by 11.1 per cent in the first quater – could overtake the US as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases this year or in 2008. This is at least 12 months earlier than its recent estimate of 2009.
“If Chinese coal consumption continues to surprise us [on the up side], it could be well before 2009,” said Fatih Birol, chief IEA economist.
China's CO2 emissions per capita remain relatively small, about an eighth of those in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. But if China maintains strong growth for the next quarter of a century its emissions alone until 2030 will be double that of all other industrialised countries combined, said Dr Birol.
China's rise has already had a transformational impact on the global economy, bringing benefits to consumers around the world with cheap appliances and clothes, while lifting millions of its own citizens out of poverty. The announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing that its already red-hot economy accelerated in the first three months of 2007 confirms that China will continue to shake global markets for years to come.
But buried in the NBS figures is a description of the way China is growing, and the reason for the IEA estimate of greenhouse gas emissions.
The production of energy-intensive industries in the first quarter expanded rapidly. Rolled steel production was up on last year by 26 per cent, alumina by 54 per cent, aluminium by 43 per cent and ferro-alloys by 44 per cent. Such growth rates are especially telling as the government has for some years given priority to policies to control such industries and their use of raw materials and power, to little effect.
In future, Chinese urbanisation and the need for extra electricity, mostly fuelled by coal, will also be big contributors to energy consumption and emissions.
Beijing is shy about neither the urgency of the problem nor the fact that policies have so far made little impact.
“At the current stage, different departments and regions are implementing the reduction of energy and pollution emission policies proactively and there are some achievements,” said Li Xiaochao, the spokesman for China's statistics bureau.
“However, we should see that the task of energy and pollution emission reduction is still huge. The current economic structure is still relying on heavy industrial sectors, and the development of the energy-intensive sector is very fast.”
Mr Li did cite what he said were heartening figures – the relatively slow rates of investment on the coast, compared with the larger amounts spent inland, in the poorer provinces China is trying to develop.
He also pointed to higher retail sales and consumption, something China has been trying to encourage to reduce reliance on exports and investment for growth.
But economists said those figures did not amount to a genuine rebalancing of the economy. “The Chinese economy has continued to grow in a traditional fashion,” said Minggao Shen of Citigroup in Beijing.
Beijing has been awash with rumours in recent weeks that the government is preparing to announce new headline policies to hasten structural change in the economy, perhaps even at the cost of temporarily slowing growth.
These rumours were fuelled by a delay in the statistics bureau press conference to announce the figures for gross domestic product, and the assignation of Mr Li, a relatively junior official, to do the briefing, instead of the chief of the agency.
Mr Li, however, gave no indication that a short, sharp shock for the economy was in the offing.
“When we strengthen the macro controls, we are alert to the fact that these kinds of measures should not be drastic ones,” said Mr Li. “We prefer fine-tuning and making frequent changes. That is the way to guard against the hard landing of the economy.”
While refusing to allow the renminbi to appreciate much faster than 4-5 per cent a year, Beijing has taken steps lately to reduce incentives for exports, especially of steel and textiles.
But China-based economists played down the likelihood of acceleration of policy measures, saying high growth rates were exactly what was wanted by leaders eager to see the benefits of economic growth spread.
“This will make the Communist party leadership happy – it's hard to create a ‘harmonious society' without strong growth and job creation,” said Andy Rothman, of CLSA, the brokerage, in Shanghai.
现在我们开始迈向发达国家拉,开始全球环境战
未富先老，未富先污染:L
我们的煤多啊
人家的高污染工业都转移过来了，由我们来背黑锅啊。