北京会再向台湾进行军事恐吓吗？（双语）

<p>北京会再向台湾进行军事恐吓吗？（双语） </p><p>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p><p><br/>● By Charles F. Hawkins</p><p>霍金斯（华盛顿）</p><p>What goes around comes around. It's an old American aphorism that means, essentially, you reap what you sow. It applies to countries as well as individuals. </p><p>Ten years ago what went around was a crisis in the Taiwan Strait that witnessed Chinese missiles being lobbed into the waters off Taiwan's port cities Kaohsiung and Keelung, and Chinese joint military exercises near Pingtan Island in Fujian Province. </p><p>The crisis was precipitated by Beijing in an apparent attempt to influence Taiwan's elections, but the attempt, while deeply troubling, failed to achieve that goal. </p><p>One reason for Beijing's failure was secret information leaked by PLA Major-General Liu Liankun that revealed China's missiles were tipped with dummy warheads. When Taipei gained this knowledge it helped stiffen resolve and showed the missile firing and military exercise for what they were: psychological warfare. </p><p>Another reason for failure was the presence of two US naval carrier strike groups that steamed to the vicinity of Taiwan. This deterrent measure juxtaposed US and Chinese forces in a confrontation. </p><p>PLA commanders learned that their equipment did not work as well in bad weather as US equipment, and that they could not compete with the US in terms of range of target acquisition or real-time information processing. </p><p>Ten years later, and with the recent actions by President Chen Shui-bian, we wonder what might come around this time. </p><p>Official Beijing's response to what they call Chen's “separatist activities”has been “rather restrained” according to a senior Pentagon policy maker. </p><p>The same cannot be said of numerous Chinese bloggers and Web sites, where nationalist sentiment has urged military action against Taiwan. </p><p>“Forget the 2008 Olympics,”one blogger wrote, “Let's use military force to teach Taiwan a lesson.” </p><p>The US is more ready in 2006 than it was in 1996 to respond to any show of military force by China. The US Pacific Command is prepared ahead of time to deter Chinese use of force against Taiwan, and to respond decisively should deterrence fail. </p><p>It's worth considering some of US PACOM's planned activities. </p><p>Throughout the spring and summer the US Pacific Fleet will be conducting a series of Navy-specific exercises and “capability experiments.” </p><p>A west coast-based carrier strike group will demonstrate surge capabilities following a pre-deployment exercise in the Hawaiian operations area. Beijing may decide to flex its military muscle over Taiwan this time, but the 1996 crisis has shown Washington it must demonstrate its capability and resolve in Asia Pacific. What goes around comes around. </p><p>US PACOM activities and exercises are the result of policy directives from Washington and the Pentagon. One official expression of US defence policy is the Quadrennial Defence Review. </p><p>The 2001 QDR called for the US military to develop a surge capability to support the Global War On Terrorists. It also identified a need to establish a Joint Presence Policy. </p><p>The US Navy's top brass requires a progress report on the new Fleet Response Plan operational concepts that came out of QDR 2001. </p><p>With the plan, the US Navy is now enabled to develop and maintain a constant surge-capable force that can deploy more than four carriers at any one time to support geographically disparate global crises. </p><p>Rim of the Pacific US military and naval exercises are scheduled to take place in the Hawaiian operations area this summer, and there will be a considerable increase in military presence and related activities in and around Hawaii in June and July. </p><p>It's not just about China-Taiwan, of course. Other events can occur in Asia Pacific that require a humanitarian response by US forces, such as the tsunami disaster that struck Southeast and South Asia on December 26, 2004. Still, the enhancement of US forces in Asia Pacific is something for everyone to think about.</p><p>The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington, D.C.and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao.</p><p>北京会再向台湾进行军事恐吓吗？</p><p>　　“凡事有因必有果”是一句古老的美国格言，基本上是“种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆”的意思。对国家或者个人，这句话都适用。</p><p>　　十年前的台海危机可以说是“因”，我们看到中国把导弹发射到高雄和基隆两个港口附近的水域，解放军也在福建省内靠近平潭岛的地区进行联合军事演习。北京试图影响台湾选举的结果是导致危机的原因。北京的做法让人感到不安，但结果却是徒劳无功。</p><p>　　北京失败的原因之一，是解放军少将刘连昆泄漏机密，透露导弹弹头是假的。台北得知内情后，信心更为坚定，事实也证明导弹和军事演习的确只是一种心理战术罢了。</p><p>　　另外一个原因是两支美国航空母舰战斗团进入了台湾附近的海域。美国的阻吓措施把美军和解放军放在对抗的局面。中国将领认识到解放军的配备在天气坏时，功能不能同美军的配备相比。在目标搜寻范围和分析即时信息方面，能力也不及美军。</p><p>　　十年后的今天，在陈水扁最近的连串动作后，我们都想知道会出现什么样的“后果”。</p><p>　　据一名美国国防部高级决策者说，中国官方对陈水扁的“分裂活动”的反应“相当克制”。</p><p>　　不过，不计其数的中国博客和网站的反应却截然不同。互联网上民族主义高涨，人们要求对台湾动武。一名博客写道：“别管2008年的奥运会了，让我们用武力给台湾一个教训。”</p><p>　　同1996年比较，美国目前已经有了更充足的准备，来应对中国任何展示军力的举动。美军太平洋总部已经预先做好准备，阻吓中国对台湾发动攻击，并在一旦阻吓失败时，作出果断的反应。</p><p>　　美军太平洋总部接下来将进行的一些军事训练活动，值得我们关注。</p><p>　　今年上半年，美军太平洋舰队将进行一系列以海军为主的演习和“军事战斗力测试”。在夏威夷指挥部进行部署前演习后，以西岸为基地的一支航空母舰战斗团将展示其快速部署和行动的能力</p><p>　　北京可能会决定再次向台湾进行军事恐吓。然而，1996年的台海危机已经让华盛顿清楚的认识到，美国必须在亚太显示它的实力和决心。这就是我们开始时所说的“凡事有因必有果”。</p><p>　　美军太平洋总部的活动和演习，都是遵照华盛顿和国防部的指示进行的。《四年防务评估》报告便是一份重要的国防政策指导文件。</p><p>　　2001的《四年防务评估》报告要求美军提高快速部署和行动的能力，以支持美国的全球防恐战争。报告也认为有必要建立“联合存在政策”，使美军各兵种能在危机情况下迅速组合。</p><p>　　针对报告所提出的“舰队紧急反应计划”作战概念，美国海军的高级将领也要求有关方面提呈进展报告。有了这个计划，美国海军已经有能力在任何时候，在不同的地方快速部署超过四艘航空母舰以应付危机。</p><p>　　美军将按照计划在今年中于夏威夷作战指挥部进行军事和海军演习。夏威夷附近在6、7月将出现频繁的军事和相关活动。</p><p>　　当然，这不只是因为两岸关系。亚太区域也可能出现需要美军提供人道援助的事件，2004年12月26日袭击东南亚和南亚的大海啸便是一个例子。</p><p>　　无论如何，美军在亚太区域增强军力的用意是值得人们思考的。</p><p>·作者Charles F. Hawkins是美国资深防务问题分析家。</p><p>北京会再向台湾进行军事恐吓吗？（双语） </p><p>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p><p><br/>● By Charles F. Hawkins</p><p>霍金斯（华盛顿）</p><p>What goes around comes around. It's an old American aphorism that means, essentially, you reap what you sow. It applies to countries as well as individuals. </p><p>Ten years ago what went around was a crisis in the Taiwan Strait that witnessed Chinese missiles being lobbed into the waters off Taiwan's port cities Kaohsiung and Keelung, and Chinese joint military exercises near Pingtan Island in Fujian Province. </p><p>The crisis was precipitated by Beijing in an apparent attempt to influence Taiwan's elections, but the attempt, while deeply troubling, failed to achieve that goal. </p><p>One reason for Beijing's failure was secret information leaked by PLA Major-General Liu Liankun that revealed China's missiles were tipped with dummy warheads. When Taipei gained this knowledge it helped stiffen resolve and showed the missile firing and military exercise for what they were: psychological warfare. </p><p>Another reason for failure was the presence of two US naval carrier strike groups that steamed to the vicinity of Taiwan. This deterrent measure juxtaposed US and Chinese forces in a confrontation. </p><p>PLA commanders learned that their equipment did not work as well in bad weather as US equipment, and that they could not compete with the US in terms of range of target acquisition or real-time information processing. </p><p>Ten years later, and with the recent actions by President Chen Shui-bian, we wonder what might come around this time. </p><p>Official Beijing's response to what they call Chen's “separatist activities”has been “rather restrained” according to a senior Pentagon policy maker. </p><p>The same cannot be said of numerous Chinese bloggers and Web sites, where nationalist sentiment has urged military action against Taiwan. </p><p>“Forget the 2008 Olympics,”one blogger wrote, “Let's use military force to teach Taiwan a lesson.” </p><p>The US is more ready in 2006 than it was in 1996 to respond to any show of military force by China. The US Pacific Command is prepared ahead of time to deter Chinese use of force against Taiwan, and to respond decisively should deterrence fail. </p><p>It's worth considering some of US PACOM's planned activities. </p><p>Throughout the spring and summer the US Pacific Fleet will be conducting a series of Navy-specific exercises and “capability experiments.” </p><p>A west coast-based carrier strike group will demonstrate surge capabilities following a pre-deployment exercise in the Hawaiian operations area. Beijing may decide to flex its military muscle over Taiwan this time, but the 1996 crisis has shown Washington it must demonstrate its capability and resolve in Asia Pacific. What goes around comes around. </p><p>US PACOM activities and exercises are the result of policy directives from Washington and the Pentagon. One official expression of US defence policy is the Quadrennial Defence Review. </p><p>The 2001 QDR called for the US military to develop a surge capability to support the Global War On Terrorists. It also identified a need to establish a Joint Presence Policy. </p><p>The US Navy's top brass requires a progress report on the new Fleet Response Plan operational concepts that came out of QDR 2001. </p><p>With the plan, the US Navy is now enabled to develop and maintain a constant surge-capable force that can deploy more than four carriers at any one time to support geographically disparate global crises. </p><p>Rim of the Pacific US military and naval exercises are scheduled to take place in the Hawaiian operations area this summer, and there will be a considerable increase in military presence and related activities in and around Hawaii in June and July. </p><p>It's not just about China-Taiwan, of course. Other events can occur in Asia Pacific that require a humanitarian response by US forces, such as the tsunami disaster that struck Southeast and South Asia on December 26, 2004. Still, the enhancement of US forces in Asia Pacific is something for everyone to think about.</p><p>The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington, D.C.and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao.</p><p>北京会再向台湾进行军事恐吓吗？</p><p>　　“凡事有因必有果”是一句古老的美国格言，基本上是“种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆”的意思。对国家或者个人，这句话都适用。</p><p>　　十年前的台海危机可以说是“因”，我们看到中国把导弹发射到高雄和基隆两个港口附近的水域，解放军也在福建省内靠近平潭岛的地区进行联合军事演习。北京试图影响台湾选举的结果是导致危机的原因。北京的做法让人感到不安，但结果却是徒劳无功。</p><p>　　北京失败的原因之一，是解放军少将刘连昆泄漏机密，透露导弹弹头是假的。台北得知内情后，信心更为坚定，事实也证明导弹和军事演习的确只是一种心理战术罢了。</p><p>　　另外一个原因是两支美国航空母舰战斗团进入了台湾附近的海域。美国的阻吓措施把美军和解放军放在对抗的局面。中国将领认识到解放军的配备在天气坏时，功能不能同美军的配备相比。在目标搜寻范围和分析即时信息方面，能力也不及美军。</p><p>　　十年后的今天，在陈水扁最近的连串动作后，我们都想知道会出现什么样的“后果”。</p><p>　　据一名美国国防部高级决策者说，中国官方对陈水扁的“分裂活动”的反应“相当克制”。</p><p>　　不过，不计其数的中国博客和网站的反应却截然不同。互联网上民族主义高涨，人们要求对台湾动武。一名博客写道：“别管2008年的奥运会了，让我们用武力给台湾一个教训。”</p><p>　　同1996年比较，美国目前已经有了更充足的准备，来应对中国任何展示军力的举动。美军太平洋总部已经预先做好准备，阻吓中国对台湾发动攻击，并在一旦阻吓失败时，作出果断的反应。</p><p>　　美军太平洋总部接下来将进行的一些军事训练活动，值得我们关注。</p><p>　　今年上半年，美军太平洋舰队将进行一系列以海军为主的演习和“军事战斗力测试”。在夏威夷指挥部进行部署前演习后，以西岸为基地的一支航空母舰战斗团将展示其快速部署和行动的能力</p><p>　　北京可能会决定再次向台湾进行军事恐吓。然而，1996年的台海危机已经让华盛顿清楚的认识到，美国必须在亚太显示它的实力和决心。这就是我们开始时所说的“凡事有因必有果”。</p><p>　　美军太平洋总部的活动和演习，都是遵照华盛顿和国防部的指示进行的。《四年防务评估》报告便是一份重要的国防政策指导文件。</p><p>　　2001的《四年防务评估》报告要求美军提高快速部署和行动的能力，以支持美国的全球防恐战争。报告也认为有必要建立“联合存在政策”，使美军各兵种能在危机情况下迅速组合。</p><p>　　针对报告所提出的“舰队紧急反应计划”作战概念，美国海军的高级将领也要求有关方面提呈进展报告。有了这个计划，美国海军已经有能力在任何时候，在不同的地方快速部署超过四艘航空母舰以应付危机。</p><p>　　美军将按照计划在今年中于夏威夷作战指挥部进行军事和海军演习。夏威夷附近在6、7月将出现频繁的军事和相关活动。</p><p>　　当然，这不只是因为两岸关系。亚太区域也可能出现需要美军提供人道援助的事件，2004年12月26日袭击东南亚和南亚的大海啸便是一个例子。</p><p>　　无论如何，美军在亚太区域增强军力的用意是值得人们思考的。</p><p>·作者Charles F. Hawkins是美国资深防务问题分析家。</p>