超级军网中国面临资本外流的困境
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 19:43:27
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-335223-1-1.html
Opinion: Trouble for China as money flows out
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s reserve requirement cut last week failed to provide much of a lift as it was more about replacing hot money outflows than adding new money. It also helped to bring into focus the central bank’s tricky position: In an environment of capital outflows how do you fine-tune policy so that both a credit crunch and currency crunch are avoided?
香港（市场观察）—中国本周下调的存款准备金率仍然未能弥补由于热钱流出造成的流动性缺口。同时也使得中国央行处于一种微妙的地位：在资本流出的环境下如何采用微调利率的策略同时避免信用危机和流动性危机。
Without signs the economy is regaining momentum, investors should watch out for unexpected policy moves — such as meaningful currency depreciation or new measures to trap capital inside its borders. Concerns will be compounded by terrible trade figures released at the weekend, with exports unexpectedly down 3.3% in January from a year earlier and imports falling almost 20%.
没有明显的信号，中国经济进入了新的态势，对此投资者必须对意料之外的政策动向保持警惕—比如通过有意图的货币贬值或者其他新的措施把资本限制于国内。这样的担心还包括于本周末中国发布的糟糕的进出口贸易数据，今年一月的进口额相较于去年同期出乎意料的下降了3.3%而进口额则几乎下降了20%左右。
After running the reserve-reduction numbers, analysts poured cold water on last week’s half-percentage-point cut, as it merely tops up liquidity after recent outflows. Fitch Ratings calculates the 570 billion yuan ($91.4 billion) freed up almost equals exactly the 575 billion yuan in net capital outflows in 2014.
在央行降低了存款准备金数额之后，分析师大多对于上周下调0.5个百分点的存款准备金率的做法泼冷水，因为这样的举措完全是在此轮资本流出之后大幅度增加流动性。据惠誉评级推算此轮资本流出额为5700亿人民币（914亿美元）几乎恰好等于中国2014年的资本净流出（PS：资本净流出=本国在国外的投资-国外在本国的投资）。
The dilemma for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is how to keep liquidity flowing without prompting more outflows. If it loosens aggressively during a period of capital outflows and dollar strength, this could just help facilitate capital flight.
现在中国人民银行（PBOC）所处的困境是如何在不刺激更多资本流出的前提下保持流动性。如果人民银行在资本流出美元走强的环境下采取积极的货币政策，将会促使更多的资本外逃。
Expectations of a weakening yuan USDCNY、 USDCNH would also have the same effect. Here, the consensus remains that authorities will be resolute in defending the loosely pegged exchange rate, with Bank of America saying it expects the PBOC will stabilize the rate in order to stem capital flight.
预期人民币的走弱，使得美元兑换人民币的在岸和离岸价格遭受了同样的影响，舆论普遍认为中国当局将会坚守当前既定的汇率，其中美国银行认为中国人民银行将会试图稳定汇率以阻止资本的持续外流。
Keeping the currency stable is widely viewed as a key policy objective of Beijing as it seeks to elevate the yuan to a means of settlement for international trade and even as a reserve currency. What’s more, Chinese corporations hold a sizeable amount of foreign-currency debt.
保持币值的稳定一直被广泛的视为北京主要的政策目标，因为北京试图将人民币作为一种贸易结算货币甚至是国际的储备货币，其他原因还包括中国公司所持有的大量外国货币贷款。
However, analysts warn that pressure is building on the exchange rate. TD Securities estimates monetary conditions in China are the tightest in a decade, with a real effective exchange rate at 15-year highs and growth in credit at decade lows. January’s decline in exports will put the yuan’s level under renewed scrutiny.
然而，分析师指出维持稳定币值的压力最终来源于汇率。道明证券称，由于人民币的贬值和近期中国信贷增量的持续萎缩，中国正在遭遇近十年以来最为吃紧的货币状况。而最近发布的一月份衰退的出口数据将会使人民币的信用等级被重新审视。
Beijing will find little help abroad, as much of the world seems to be using lower oil prices to cut rates and let currencies slide. Already this year, central banks in at least 12 countries have moved to cut rates.
随着大部分国家倾向于用下跌的油价来降低利率并使本国货币贬值，北京此次面对的国际环境同样是不利的。今年至少已经有12个国家的中央银行会下调本国利率。
If China’s loosely pegged exchange rate keeps rising, it could be forced to throw in the towel with a significant depreciation, although this still looks like a long-shot scenario at this stage.
如果中国既定的浮动汇率继续走高，这将使中国在这次人民币贬值中被迫认输，尽管在这种情况下斗争将会是长期的脚本。
Another possibility is authorities will step up efforts to trap liquidity inside China.
另一种可能性是中国当局采取措施把货币流动性限制在中国境内。
We have already witnessed this in Macau. The gambling enclave has now recorded its eighth months of declining gaming revenues after a clampdown on the movement of illicit funds. Beijing has also been proceeding with efforts to clamp down on overseas property purchases by mainland Chinese that skirt capital controls.
我们看到在澳门，中国赌博合法地区，在严厉打击洗钱活动的运动之后澳门的博彩行业收入已经连续8个月下降。北京同时也采取了一系列打击由中国大陆购置的企图躲避资本管控的海外资产。
Another area authorities might turn to is China’s ballooning tourism deficit, due to its huge size and focus on luxury spending. This diverts both money and much-needed domestic consumption overseas.
由于旅游业规模的巨大以及游客对海外奢侈品的关注，中国膨胀的旅游业赤字问题使得当局不得不引起关注。这使得巨大的消费和货币从国内转移到了海外。
Official statistics revealed that last year outbound Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas in 2014, making them the world’s biggest spenders. This lead to a shortfall of $100 billion when compared to the spending by inbound tourists, up 50% from a year earlier.
官方数据显示去年中国游客在海外消费数额达到1648亿美元，使其成为2014年世界上最大的海外消费国家。相较于相对较少的海外游客在中国国内消费额产生了1000亿美元的赤字，这一数字比2013年上升了50%。
Tourism spending might seem innocent enough until you appreciate not just its scale, but how much is related to luxury goods. This also means it dovetails nicely into President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption and anti-extravagance campaign.
光就旅游的花销从消费的规模来看似乎并不存在什么问题，但是消费的商品中大部分都是奢侈品。这一点很好的讽刺了Xi的反腐反奢侈运动。
HSBC estimates tourists make-up 44% of luxury sales globally, and Chinese account for half of that amount. The scale of luxury-good spending has also been featured recently in the Chinese press. According to a research-institute report last week, Chinese consumers purchase 76% of their luxury goods while overseas. Lower taxes overseas are one attraction, and weak foreign currencies add to the bargain.
汇丰银行评估全世界游客购买的奢侈品占奢侈品销售市场的44%，而其中近一半的销量由中国游客购买。近段时间中国游客更是以大量购买奢侈品而闻名。根据研究机构上周发布的报道，由于海外更低的税收和近期外币的纷纷贬值，中国游客在海外购买的奢侈占到了中国奢侈品消费的76%。
An interesting statistic is that this prodigious shopping is carried out by just that 4% of the population who have a passport. This might mean, as HSBC argues, there is a lot more shopping growth to come as more Chinese get passports. Another possibility is that this 4% is doing shopping for more than just themselves.
一个有趣的数字是如此巨量的消费数字仅仅来源于4%拥有护照的人口，汇丰银行认为，这可能意味着随着更多的人获得护照，这个消费数字还可能据需上涨，另一种可能性是，这4%的人不仅仅是在给自己买东西。
If you go on Alibaba’s Taobao e-commerce site, you can see there is a huge business in parallel imports or the reselling of branded luxury goods, with literally millions of merchants involved. Already regulators have been pressing Alibaba over the sale of counterfeit products
如果你登录阿里巴巴的淘宝网页，你可以发现数以万计的商人和大量销卖的进口产品和品牌奢侈产品，尽管中国监管机构已经要求阿里巴巴打击仿冒产品的销售。
Hitting this re-sale trade at home could be one way to lower China’s tourism-spending deficit and make life a little easier for the PBOC. Of course, it might be simpler to just rebalance by depreciating the yuan. But if you look at Beijing’s past policy, blunt administrative measures to trap liquidity would be less of a surprise.
打击海外购物的国内转售是中国降低旅游赤字的一个办法，同时也会使得中国人民银行的日子好过一点。当然直接是人民币贬值达到新的平衡也许会来得更为容易，但是看一看以往北京在限制流动性上呆板滞后的政策，就不会对它现在的政策显得那么吃惊了。原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-335223-1-1.html
Opinion: Trouble for China as money flows out
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s reserve requirement cut last week failed to provide much of a lift as it was more about replacing hot money outflows than adding new money. It also helped to bring into focus the central bank’s tricky position: In an environment of capital outflows how do you fine-tune policy so that both a credit crunch and currency crunch are avoided?
香港（市场观察）—中国本周下调的存款准备金率仍然未能弥补由于热钱流出造成的流动性缺口。同时也使得中国央行处于一种微妙的地位：在资本流出的环境下如何采用微调利率的策略同时避免信用危机和流动性危机。
Without signs the economy is regaining momentum, investors should watch out for unexpected policy moves — such as meaningful currency depreciation or new measures to trap capital inside its borders. Concerns will be compounded by terrible trade figures released at the weekend, with exports unexpectedly down 3.3% in January from a year earlier and imports falling almost 20%.
没有明显的信号，中国经济进入了新的态势，对此投资者必须对意料之外的政策动向保持警惕—比如通过有意图的货币贬值或者其他新的措施把资本限制于国内。这样的担心还包括于本周末中国发布的糟糕的进出口贸易数据，今年一月的进口额相较于去年同期出乎意料的下降了3.3%而进口额则几乎下降了20%左右。
After running the reserve-reduction numbers, analysts poured cold water on last week’s half-percentage-point cut, as it merely tops up liquidity after recent outflows. Fitch Ratings calculates the 570 billion yuan ($91.4 billion) freed up almost equals exactly the 575 billion yuan in net capital outflows in 2014.
在央行降低了存款准备金数额之后，分析师大多对于上周下调0.5个百分点的存款准备金率的做法泼冷水，因为这样的举措完全是在此轮资本流出之后大幅度增加流动性。据惠誉评级推算此轮资本流出额为5700亿人民币（914亿美元）几乎恰好等于中国2014年的资本净流出（PS：资本净流出=本国在国外的投资-国外在本国的投资）。
The dilemma for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is how to keep liquidity flowing without prompting more outflows. If it loosens aggressively during a period of capital outflows and dollar strength, this could just help facilitate capital flight.
现在中国人民银行（PBOC）所处的困境是如何在不刺激更多资本流出的前提下保持流动性。如果人民银行在资本流出美元走强的环境下采取积极的货币政策，将会促使更多的资本外逃。
Expectations of a weakening yuan USDCNY、 USDCNH would also have the same effect. Here, the consensus remains that authorities will be resolute in defending the loosely pegged exchange rate, with Bank of America saying it expects the PBOC will stabilize the rate in order to stem capital flight.
预期人民币的走弱，使得美元兑换人民币的在岸和离岸价格遭受了同样的影响，舆论普遍认为中国当局将会坚守当前既定的汇率，其中美国银行认为中国人民银行将会试图稳定汇率以阻止资本的持续外流。
Keeping the currency stable is widely viewed as a key policy objective of Beijing as it seeks to elevate the yuan to a means of settlement for international trade and even as a reserve currency. What’s more, Chinese corporations hold a sizeable amount of foreign-currency debt.
保持币值的稳定一直被广泛的视为北京主要的政策目标，因为北京试图将人民币作为一种贸易结算货币甚至是国际的储备货币，其他原因还包括中国公司所持有的大量外国货币贷款。
However, analysts warn that pressure is building on the exchange rate. TD Securities estimates monetary conditions in China are the tightest in a decade, with a real effective exchange rate at 15-year highs and growth in credit at decade lows. January’s decline in exports will put the yuan’s level under renewed scrutiny.
然而，分析师指出维持稳定币值的压力最终来源于汇率。道明证券称，由于人民币的贬值和近期中国信贷增量的持续萎缩，中国正在遭遇近十年以来最为吃紧的货币状况。而最近发布的一月份衰退的出口数据将会使人民币的信用等级被重新审视。
Beijing will find little help abroad, as much of the world seems to be using lower oil prices to cut rates and let currencies slide. Already this year, central banks in at least 12 countries have moved to cut rates.
随着大部分国家倾向于用下跌的油价来降低利率并使本国货币贬值，北京此次面对的国际环境同样是不利的。今年至少已经有12个国家的中央银行会下调本国利率。
If China’s loosely pegged exchange rate keeps rising, it could be forced to throw in the towel with a significant depreciation, although this still looks like a long-shot scenario at this stage.
如果中国既定的浮动汇率继续走高，这将使中国在这次人民币贬值中被迫认输，尽管在这种情况下斗争将会是长期的脚本。
Another possibility is authorities will step up efforts to trap liquidity inside China.
另一种可能性是中国当局采取措施把货币流动性限制在中国境内。
We have already witnessed this in Macau. The gambling enclave has now recorded its eighth months of declining gaming revenues after a clampdown on the movement of illicit funds. Beijing has also been proceeding with efforts to clamp down on overseas property purchases by mainland Chinese that skirt capital controls.
我们看到在澳门，中国赌博合法地区，在严厉打击洗钱活动的运动之后澳门的博彩行业收入已经连续8个月下降。北京同时也采取了一系列打击由中国大陆购置的企图躲避资本管控的海外资产。
Another area authorities might turn to is China’s ballooning tourism deficit, due to its huge size and focus on luxury spending. This diverts both money and much-needed domestic consumption overseas.
由于旅游业规模的巨大以及游客对海外奢侈品的关注，中国膨胀的旅游业赤字问题使得当局不得不引起关注。这使得巨大的消费和货币从国内转移到了海外。
Official statistics revealed that last year outbound Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas in 2014, making them the world’s biggest spenders. This lead to a shortfall of $100 billion when compared to the spending by inbound tourists, up 50% from a year earlier.
官方数据显示去年中国游客在海外消费数额达到1648亿美元，使其成为2014年世界上最大的海外消费国家。相较于相对较少的海外游客在中国国内消费额产生了1000亿美元的赤字，这一数字比2013年上升了50%。
Tourism spending might seem innocent enough until you appreciate not just its scale, but how much is related to luxury goods. This also means it dovetails nicely into President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption and anti-extravagance campaign.
光就旅游的花销从消费的规模来看似乎并不存在什么问题，但是消费的商品中大部分都是奢侈品。这一点很好的讽刺了Xi的反腐反奢侈运动。
HSBC estimates tourists make-up 44% of luxury sales globally, and Chinese account for half of that amount. The scale of luxury-good spending has also been featured recently in the Chinese press. According to a research-institute report last week, Chinese consumers purchase 76% of their luxury goods while overseas. Lower taxes overseas are one attraction, and weak foreign currencies add to the bargain.
汇丰银行评估全世界游客购买的奢侈品占奢侈品销售市场的44%，而其中近一半的销量由中国游客购买。近段时间中国游客更是以大量购买奢侈品而闻名。根据研究机构上周发布的报道，由于海外更低的税收和近期外币的纷纷贬值，中国游客在海外购买的奢侈占到了中国奢侈品消费的76%。
An interesting statistic is that this prodigious shopping is carried out by just that 4% of the population who have a passport. This might mean, as HSBC argues, there is a lot more shopping growth to come as more Chinese get passports. Another possibility is that this 4% is doing shopping for more than just themselves.
一个有趣的数字是如此巨量的消费数字仅仅来源于4%拥有护照的人口，汇丰银行认为，这可能意味着随着更多的人获得护照，这个消费数字还可能据需上涨，另一种可能性是，这4%的人不仅仅是在给自己买东西。
If you go on Alibaba’s Taobao e-commerce site, you can see there is a huge business in parallel imports or the reselling of branded luxury goods, with literally millions of merchants involved. Already regulators have been pressing Alibaba over the sale of counterfeit products
如果你登录阿里巴巴的淘宝网页，你可以发现数以万计的商人和大量销卖的进口产品和品牌奢侈产品，尽管中国监管机构已经要求阿里巴巴打击仿冒产品的销售。
Hitting this re-sale trade at home could be one way to lower China’s tourism-spending deficit and make life a little easier for the PBOC. Of course, it might be simpler to just rebalance by depreciating the yuan. But if you look at Beijing’s past policy, blunt administrative measures to trap liquidity would be less of a surprise.
打击海外购物的国内转售是中国降低旅游赤字的一个办法，同时也会使得中国人民银行的日子好过一点。当然直接是人民币贬值达到新的平衡也许会来得更为容易，但是看一看以往北京在限制流动性上呆板滞后的政策，就不会对它现在的政策显得那么吃惊了。
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-335223-1-1.html
Opinion: Trouble for China as money flows out
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s reserve requirement cut last week failed to provide much of a lift as it was more about replacing hot money outflows than adding new money. It also helped to bring into focus the central bank’s tricky position: In an environment of capital outflows how do you fine-tune policy so that both a credit crunch and currency crunch are avoided?
香港（市场观察）—中国本周下调的存款准备金率仍然未能弥补由于热钱流出造成的流动性缺口。同时也使得中国央行处于一种微妙的地位：在资本流出的环境下如何采用微调利率的策略同时避免信用危机和流动性危机。
Without signs the economy is regaining momentum, investors should watch out for unexpected policy moves — such as meaningful currency depreciation or new measures to trap capital inside its borders. Concerns will be compounded by terrible trade figures released at the weekend, with exports unexpectedly down 3.3% in January from a year earlier and imports falling almost 20%.
没有明显的信号，中国经济进入了新的态势，对此投资者必须对意料之外的政策动向保持警惕—比如通过有意图的货币贬值或者其他新的措施把资本限制于国内。这样的担心还包括于本周末中国发布的糟糕的进出口贸易数据，今年一月的进口额相较于去年同期出乎意料的下降了3.3%而进口额则几乎下降了20%左右。
After running the reserve-reduction numbers, analysts poured cold water on last week’s half-percentage-point cut, as it merely tops up liquidity after recent outflows. Fitch Ratings calculates the 570 billion yuan ($91.4 billion) freed up almost equals exactly the 575 billion yuan in net capital outflows in 2014.
在央行降低了存款准备金数额之后，分析师大多对于上周下调0.5个百分点的存款准备金率的做法泼冷水，因为这样的举措完全是在此轮资本流出之后大幅度增加流动性。据惠誉评级推算此轮资本流出额为5700亿人民币（914亿美元）几乎恰好等于中国2014年的资本净流出（PS：资本净流出=本国在国外的投资-国外在本国的投资）。
The dilemma for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is how to keep liquidity flowing without prompting more outflows. If it loosens aggressively during a period of capital outflows and dollar strength, this could just help facilitate capital flight.
现在中国人民银行（PBOC）所处的困境是如何在不刺激更多资本流出的前提下保持流动性。如果人民银行在资本流出美元走强的环境下采取积极的货币政策，将会促使更多的资本外逃。
Expectations of a weakening yuan USDCNY、 USDCNH would also have the same effect. Here, the consensus remains that authorities will be resolute in defending the loosely pegged exchange rate, with Bank of America saying it expects the PBOC will stabilize the rate in order to stem capital flight.
预期人民币的走弱，使得美元兑换人民币的在岸和离岸价格遭受了同样的影响，舆论普遍认为中国当局将会坚守当前既定的汇率，其中美国银行认为中国人民银行将会试图稳定汇率以阻止资本的持续外流。
Keeping the currency stable is widely viewed as a key policy objective of Beijing as it seeks to elevate the yuan to a means of settlement for international trade and even as a reserve currency. What’s more, Chinese corporations hold a sizeable amount of foreign-currency debt.
保持币值的稳定一直被广泛的视为北京主要的政策目标，因为北京试图将人民币作为一种贸易结算货币甚至是国际的储备货币，其他原因还包括中国公司所持有的大量外国货币贷款。
However, analysts warn that pressure is building on the exchange rate. TD Securities estimates monetary conditions in China are the tightest in a decade, with a real effective exchange rate at 15-year highs and growth in credit at decade lows. January’s decline in exports will put the yuan’s level under renewed scrutiny.
然而，分析师指出维持稳定币值的压力最终来源于汇率。道明证券称，由于人民币的贬值和近期中国信贷增量的持续萎缩，中国正在遭遇近十年以来最为吃紧的货币状况。而最近发布的一月份衰退的出口数据将会使人民币的信用等级被重新审视。
Beijing will find little help abroad, as much of the world seems to be using lower oil prices to cut rates and let currencies slide. Already this year, central banks in at least 12 countries have moved to cut rates.
随着大部分国家倾向于用下跌的油价来降低利率并使本国货币贬值，北京此次面对的国际环境同样是不利的。今年至少已经有12个国家的中央银行会下调本国利率。
If China’s loosely pegged exchange rate keeps rising, it could be forced to throw in the towel with a significant depreciation, although this still looks like a long-shot scenario at this stage.
如果中国既定的浮动汇率继续走高，这将使中国在这次人民币贬值中被迫认输，尽管在这种情况下斗争将会是长期的脚本。
Another possibility is authorities will step up efforts to trap liquidity inside China.
另一种可能性是中国当局采取措施把货币流动性限制在中国境内。
We have already witnessed this in Macau. The gambling enclave has now recorded its eighth months of declining gaming revenues after a clampdown on the movement of illicit funds. Beijing has also been proceeding with efforts to clamp down on overseas property purchases by mainland Chinese that skirt capital controls.
我们看到在澳门，中国赌博合法地区，在严厉打击洗钱活动的运动之后澳门的博彩行业收入已经连续8个月下降。北京同时也采取了一系列打击由中国大陆购置的企图躲避资本管控的海外资产。
Another area authorities might turn to is China’s ballooning tourism deficit, due to its huge size and focus on luxury spending. This diverts both money and much-needed domestic consumption overseas.
由于旅游业规模的巨大以及游客对海外奢侈品的关注，中国膨胀的旅游业赤字问题使得当局不得不引起关注。这使得巨大的消费和货币从国内转移到了海外。
Official statistics revealed that last year outbound Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas in 2014, making them the world’s biggest spenders. This lead to a shortfall of $100 billion when compared to the spending by inbound tourists, up 50% from a year earlier.
官方数据显示去年中国游客在海外消费数额达到1648亿美元，使其成为2014年世界上最大的海外消费国家。相较于相对较少的海外游客在中国国内消费额产生了1000亿美元的赤字，这一数字比2013年上升了50%。
Tourism spending might seem innocent enough until you appreciate not just its scale, but how much is related to luxury goods. This also means it dovetails nicely into President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption and anti-extravagance campaign.
光就旅游的花销从消费的规模来看似乎并不存在什么问题，但是消费的商品中大部分都是奢侈品。这一点很好的讽刺了Xi的反腐反奢侈运动。
HSBC estimates tourists make-up 44% of luxury sales globally, and Chinese account for half of that amount. The scale of luxury-good spending has also been featured recently in the Chinese press. According to a research-institute report last week, Chinese consumers purchase 76% of their luxury goods while overseas. Lower taxes overseas are one attraction, and weak foreign currencies add to the bargain.
汇丰银行评估全世界游客购买的奢侈品占奢侈品销售市场的44%，而其中近一半的销量由中国游客购买。近段时间中国游客更是以大量购买奢侈品而闻名。根据研究机构上周发布的报道，由于海外更低的税收和近期外币的纷纷贬值，中国游客在海外购买的奢侈占到了中国奢侈品消费的76%。
An interesting statistic is that this prodigious shopping is carried out by just that 4% of the population who have a passport. This might mean, as HSBC argues, there is a lot more shopping growth to come as more Chinese get passports. Another possibility is that this 4% is doing shopping for more than just themselves.
一个有趣的数字是如此巨量的消费数字仅仅来源于4%拥有护照的人口，汇丰银行认为，这可能意味着随着更多的人获得护照，这个消费数字还可能据需上涨，另一种可能性是，这4%的人不仅仅是在给自己买东西。
If you go on Alibaba’s Taobao e-commerce site, you can see there is a huge business in parallel imports or the reselling of branded luxury goods, with literally millions of merchants involved. Already regulators have been pressing Alibaba over the sale of counterfeit products
如果你登录阿里巴巴的淘宝网页，你可以发现数以万计的商人和大量销卖的进口产品和品牌奢侈产品，尽管中国监管机构已经要求阿里巴巴打击仿冒产品的销售。
Hitting this re-sale trade at home could be one way to lower China’s tourism-spending deficit and make life a little easier for the PBOC. Of course, it might be simpler to just rebalance by depreciating the yuan. But if you look at Beijing’s past policy, blunt administrative measures to trap liquidity would be less of a surprise.
打击海外购物的国内转售是中国降低旅游赤字的一个办法，同时也会使得中国人民银行的日子好过一点。当然直接是人民币贬值达到新的平衡也许会来得更为容易，但是看一看以往北京在限制流动性上呆板滞后的政策，就不会对它现在的政策显得那么吃惊了。原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-335223-1-1.html
Opinion: Trouble for China as money flows out
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s reserve requirement cut last week failed to provide much of a lift as it was more about replacing hot money outflows than adding new money. It also helped to bring into focus the central bank’s tricky position: In an environment of capital outflows how do you fine-tune policy so that both a credit crunch and currency crunch are avoided?
香港（市场观察）—中国本周下调的存款准备金率仍然未能弥补由于热钱流出造成的流动性缺口。同时也使得中国央行处于一种微妙的地位：在资本流出的环境下如何采用微调利率的策略同时避免信用危机和流动性危机。
Without signs the economy is regaining momentum, investors should watch out for unexpected policy moves — such as meaningful currency depreciation or new measures to trap capital inside its borders. Concerns will be compounded by terrible trade figures released at the weekend, with exports unexpectedly down 3.3% in January from a year earlier and imports falling almost 20%.
没有明显的信号，中国经济进入了新的态势，对此投资者必须对意料之外的政策动向保持警惕—比如通过有意图的货币贬值或者其他新的措施把资本限制于国内。这样的担心还包括于本周末中国发布的糟糕的进出口贸易数据，今年一月的进口额相较于去年同期出乎意料的下降了3.3%而进口额则几乎下降了20%左右。
After running the reserve-reduction numbers, analysts poured cold water on last week’s half-percentage-point cut, as it merely tops up liquidity after recent outflows. Fitch Ratings calculates the 570 billion yuan ($91.4 billion) freed up almost equals exactly the 575 billion yuan in net capital outflows in 2014.
在央行降低了存款准备金数额之后，分析师大多对于上周下调0.5个百分点的存款准备金率的做法泼冷水，因为这样的举措完全是在此轮资本流出之后大幅度增加流动性。据惠誉评级推算此轮资本流出额为5700亿人民币（914亿美元）几乎恰好等于中国2014年的资本净流出（PS：资本净流出=本国在国外的投资-国外在本国的投资）。
The dilemma for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is how to keep liquidity flowing without prompting more outflows. If it loosens aggressively during a period of capital outflows and dollar strength, this could just help facilitate capital flight.
现在中国人民银行（PBOC）所处的困境是如何在不刺激更多资本流出的前提下保持流动性。如果人民银行在资本流出美元走强的环境下采取积极的货币政策，将会促使更多的资本外逃。
Expectations of a weakening yuan USDCNY、 USDCNH would also have the same effect. Here, the consensus remains that authorities will be resolute in defending the loosely pegged exchange rate, with Bank of America saying it expects the PBOC will stabilize the rate in order to stem capital flight.
预期人民币的走弱，使得美元兑换人民币的在岸和离岸价格遭受了同样的影响，舆论普遍认为中国当局将会坚守当前既定的汇率，其中美国银行认为中国人民银行将会试图稳定汇率以阻止资本的持续外流。
Keeping the currency stable is widely viewed as a key policy objective of Beijing as it seeks to elevate the yuan to a means of settlement for international trade and even as a reserve currency. What’s more, Chinese corporations hold a sizeable amount of foreign-currency debt.
保持币值的稳定一直被广泛的视为北京主要的政策目标，因为北京试图将人民币作为一种贸易结算货币甚至是国际的储备货币，其他原因还包括中国公司所持有的大量外国货币贷款。
However, analysts warn that pressure is building on the exchange rate. TD Securities estimates monetary conditions in China are the tightest in a decade, with a real effective exchange rate at 15-year highs and growth in credit at decade lows. January’s decline in exports will put the yuan’s level under renewed scrutiny.
然而，分析师指出维持稳定币值的压力最终来源于汇率。道明证券称，由于人民币的贬值和近期中国信贷增量的持续萎缩，中国正在遭遇近十年以来最为吃紧的货币状况。而最近发布的一月份衰退的出口数据将会使人民币的信用等级被重新审视。
Beijing will find little help abroad, as much of the world seems to be using lower oil prices to cut rates and let currencies slide. Already this year, central banks in at least 12 countries have moved to cut rates.
随着大部分国家倾向于用下跌的油价来降低利率并使本国货币贬值，北京此次面对的国际环境同样是不利的。今年至少已经有12个国家的中央银行会下调本国利率。
If China’s loosely pegged exchange rate keeps rising, it could be forced to throw in the towel with a significant depreciation, although this still looks like a long-shot scenario at this stage.
如果中国既定的浮动汇率继续走高，这将使中国在这次人民币贬值中被迫认输，尽管在这种情况下斗争将会是长期的脚本。
Another possibility is authorities will step up efforts to trap liquidity inside China.
另一种可能性是中国当局采取措施把货币流动性限制在中国境内。
We have already witnessed this in Macau. The gambling enclave has now recorded its eighth months of declining gaming revenues after a clampdown on the movement of illicit funds. Beijing has also been proceeding with efforts to clamp down on overseas property purchases by mainland Chinese that skirt capital controls.
我们看到在澳门，中国赌博合法地区，在严厉打击洗钱活动的运动之后澳门的博彩行业收入已经连续8个月下降。北京同时也采取了一系列打击由中国大陆购置的企图躲避资本管控的海外资产。
Another area authorities might turn to is China’s ballooning tourism deficit, due to its huge size and focus on luxury spending. This diverts both money and much-needed domestic consumption overseas.
由于旅游业规模的巨大以及游客对海外奢侈品的关注，中国膨胀的旅游业赤字问题使得当局不得不引起关注。这使得巨大的消费和货币从国内转移到了海外。
Official statistics revealed that last year outbound Chinese tourists spent a record $164.8 billion overseas in 2014, making them the world’s biggest spenders. This lead to a shortfall of $100 billion when compared to the spending by inbound tourists, up 50% from a year earlier.
官方数据显示去年中国游客在海外消费数额达到1648亿美元，使其成为2014年世界上最大的海外消费国家。相较于相对较少的海外游客在中国国内消费额产生了1000亿美元的赤字，这一数字比2013年上升了50%。
Tourism spending might seem innocent enough until you appreciate not just its scale, but how much is related to luxury goods. This also means it dovetails nicely into President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption and anti-extravagance campaign.
光就旅游的花销从消费的规模来看似乎并不存在什么问题，但是消费的商品中大部分都是奢侈品。这一点很好的讽刺了Xi的反腐反奢侈运动。
HSBC estimates tourists make-up 44% of luxury sales globally, and Chinese account for half of that amount. The scale of luxury-good spending has also been featured recently in the Chinese press. According to a research-institute report last week, Chinese consumers purchase 76% of their luxury goods while overseas. Lower taxes overseas are one attraction, and weak foreign currencies add to the bargain.
汇丰银行评估全世界游客购买的奢侈品占奢侈品销售市场的44%，而其中近一半的销量由中国游客购买。近段时间中国游客更是以大量购买奢侈品而闻名。根据研究机构上周发布的报道，由于海外更低的税收和近期外币的纷纷贬值，中国游客在海外购买的奢侈占到了中国奢侈品消费的76%。
An interesting statistic is that this prodigious shopping is carried out by just that 4% of the population who have a passport. This might mean, as HSBC argues, there is a lot more shopping growth to come as more Chinese get passports. Another possibility is that this 4% is doing shopping for more than just themselves.
一个有趣的数字是如此巨量的消费数字仅仅来源于4%拥有护照的人口，汇丰银行认为，这可能意味着随着更多的人获得护照，这个消费数字还可能据需上涨，另一种可能性是，这4%的人不仅仅是在给自己买东西。
If you go on Alibaba’s Taobao e-commerce site, you can see there is a huge business in parallel imports or the reselling of branded luxury goods, with literally millions of merchants involved. Already regulators have been pressing Alibaba over the sale of counterfeit products
如果你登录阿里巴巴的淘宝网页，你可以发现数以万计的商人和大量销卖的进口产品和品牌奢侈产品，尽管中国监管机构已经要求阿里巴巴打击仿冒产品的销售。
Hitting this re-sale trade at home could be one way to lower China’s tourism-spending deficit and make life a little easier for the PBOC. Of course, it might be simpler to just rebalance by depreciating the yuan. But if you look at Beijing’s past policy, blunt administrative measures to trap liquidity would be less of a surprise.
打击海外购物的国内转售是中国降低旅游赤字的一个办法，同时也会使得中国人民银行的日子好过一点。当然直接是人民币贬值达到新的平衡也许会来得更为容易，但是看一看以往北京在限制流动性上呆板滞后的政策，就不会对它现在的政策显得那么吃惊了。
放心，一切都在掌握之中
大概是房子要跌了，所以资本外流
流吧流吧，反正我年年看媒体说外资往外流，习惯了。
一切尽在崩溃中，习惯了。
年年看媒体说外资往外流