超级军网【龙腾】2030年:中国即将到来的水危机
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/30 12:24:33
http://www.acfun.tv/a/ac567391
FORTUNE -- After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.
《CNN财富杂志》 - 每届美国总统大选之后，华盛顿特区国家情报委员会(NIC) 都会给美国情报机构提供一份长远的战略分析，发布一份关于安全风险的评估报告。其最新一份报告《2030年全球趋势：另类世界》于12月10日发布，其內容涵盖了从恐怖主义的跨边界冲突到区域经济的崩溃等许多话题。
One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."
本年度一个特别引人注目的主题是中国即将到来的粮食和水危机。根据该报告说，到2030年，气候变化、中国的城市化进程以及中产阶层的生活方式，将导致用水需求大幅提升，因此造成的水源不足进而致使庄稼失收。正如报告所指出：”到2030年，水可能会成为一个比能量或矿物质更重要的竞争源头。“
Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.
到2030年，全球对粮食的需求预计将增加35％以上，这意味着世界将需要更多的水。毕竟，农业和畜牧业用水占使用量的70％。根据一项较大的国际研究，全球需水量大部份是用在维持农业和家畜方面，需求将上升到高于我们当今可持续供水的40%。
China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.
该报告指出，中国尤其易受到这种趋势的伤害。比如，来自与水源缺乏有关的环境压力，使中国的谷物产量面临重大挑战，融化的喜马拉雅冰川无助于土壤贫瘠化，还有城市化对可用土地的压力等。中国是一个主要的小麦生产国，也是紧随美国之后第二大的玉米生产国和消费国。
By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."
不过，到了2030年，中国这些农作物可能不再是自给自足，也可能会被迫增加它的进口量，NIC推断：糧食在国际市场上將有显着的价格升高。
None of this needs to happen if China as well as other developing nations pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.
如果中国和其他发展中国家一样，寻求新的方法来提高农作物产量和保护水源，这些结果完全没有需要发生。 NIC提出了三个新的技术需要发展：转基因农作物，精准农业，高科技灌溉。
· The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics enabled by molecular biology hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.
NIC认为，通过植物遗传学启用的分子生物学，为未来15-20年实现粮食安全持很大希望。肥料需求少量、能抵抗昆虫和乾旱的农作物可以通过分子植物培植。像中国这样的国家，将不得不克服消费者和国际规章的阻力。
· Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, "autonomous tractors" think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that "vertical" farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.
机器人技术能帮助农民降低他们所需要的水量、肥料和种子。 NIC说，在未来5到10年，自主農耕机作为高度自动化生产方向上的设施，可以更有效地应用计算器技术在耕种上。 NIC还报告，在高层结构里的“垂直式＂农场经营可以帮助提高产量，降低水的消耗量。
· Irrigation systems on farms waste roughly 60% of the water used. Micro-irrigation systems that use IT to gauge exactly how much water needs to be dripped on plants could boost yields dramatically. The cost of today's micro-irrigation systems, however, is still high.
农场的灌溉系统浪费了大约60％的用水。微灌系统使用网络技术来衡量到底需要浇多少水在植物上，因而能显着提高产量。然而，目前的微灌系统的成本仍然是高昂的。
As with any set of predictions it difficult to say how fast or even whether any of these new technologies will gain traction. At the very least, they do present some intriguing ideas for investors looking for a way to profit on the 21st century economy.
与任何预测一样，这些新技术有多快甚至是否会大规模应用也是难于估计的。但至少，在为投资者寻找21世纪的经济利润的方式上，他们确实提出了一些有趣的想法。
评论翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译：Sonata14 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-143179-1-1.html
Emily Sheafe · 2 months ago
The fact that the NIC suggests GMO crops is outright stupid. GMO crops in the end ruin the land (look at the farmer suicide crisis in India as a result of GMO crops). The amount of petro-chemical fertilizers that will be required to maintain said crops will runoff into the water supply creating an even bigger crisis.
NIC提议转基因作物的事实是彻头彻尾地愚蠢的。转基因作物最后会毁了土地 (看看印度农民的自杀危机，这就是转基因作物导致的结果)。石油化工化肥的数量将被需求以维持所说的产量，然而，这些化肥流入供水里却在制造更大的危机。
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121212121212 · a month ago
only an idiot liberal would believe this the earth is 75% water
只有一个白痴的自由主义者会相信地球有75％是水
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Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
What about recycling of water, desalinization of water, etc. What about the energy requirements of water usage. War will still come due to lack of resources.
循环水，脱盐水等等怎么样。能源需求用水量又怎么样。战争还是会因资源缺乏而发生。
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Taishanese · 2 months ago
There is alot of water North of China. Russia is a nation of only 140 million people, yet guard her territory vigilantly not giving an inch of ground to the Chinese. Something has to give.
中国的北方有许多水。俄罗斯是一个只有1.4亿人的国家，却警惕地捍卫自己的领土，她的领土一寸也不会给中国人。 但某些事情上却不得不给。
Darkseid of Apokolips Taishanese · 2 months ago
Russia will nuke China if China attempts to take any Russian land, resources or people. Perhaps that will be the easiest way to reduce the Chinese overpopulation. Russia's fertility replacement is rising and is near zero population growth. Don't worry, Russia remembers the Golden Horde invasions in the middle ages to this day. Putin is well aware of this issue.
By the way, that's how Moscow gained its dominance in Russia; inititally as a tax collector for the Golden Horde. Although, Russia may be willing to sell China the water.
Darkseid of Apokolips 回复 Taishanese
如果中国敢试图拿取任何俄罗斯的土地、资源或人，俄罗斯将会核平中国！或许，这将是最简单的方法，以减少中国的过剩人口。俄罗斯的生育更替水平正上升，而且人口的增长率已由负数靠近零。不要担心，直到今天，俄罗斯仍然记得在中世纪金帐汗国的入侵。普京显然很清楚这个问题。
顺便说一下，莫斯科正是這樣在俄罗斯获得其霸主地位的；其最初只是当金帐汗国的一个收税者。尽管，俄罗斯可能愿意出售用水给中国。
Taishanese Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
It's Friday, but Sunday's a comin. We need to keep in mind, that Russia, as a global power, is bygone era. There will come a day when Chinese deliver systems will be able to overwhelm Russia (that I'm sure of).
Time is on China's side. And I believe you know that as well. It's Friday, but Sundays' a comin.
Taishanese 回复 Darkseid of Apokolips
虽然今天是星期五，然而星期天即将到来。我们要记住，俄罗斯作为一个全球强权已是过去的时代。将来有那么的一天，中国的投射系统能够压倒俄罗斯 (我敢肯定)。
时代站在中国的一边。而且我相信你亦知道的。今天是星期五，然而星期天即将就来临。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Look-Like-Buy.com · 2 months ago
i cannot even imagine to have water crisis, i understand all the changes in the climate but geee water crisis
我甚至不能想像有水危机，我明白所有的气候变化，咦，水也有危机吗？
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Tony Pow · 2 months ago
If China faces water problem, India will face more problem. The water will be used more or redirected before it moves to India from Tibet plateau.
如果中国面临的是用水问题，印度将面临更多的问题。在它从XZ高原流到印度之前，水将被使用得更多或改变方向。http://www.acfun.tv/a/ac567391
FORTUNE -- After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.
《CNN财富杂志》 - 每届美国总统大选之后，华盛顿特区国家情报委员会(NIC) 都会给美国情报机构提供一份长远的战略分析，发布一份关于安全风险的评估报告。其最新一份报告《2030年全球趋势：另类世界》于12月10日发布，其內容涵盖了从恐怖主义的跨边界冲突到区域经济的崩溃等许多话题。
One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."
本年度一个特别引人注目的主题是中国即将到来的粮食和水危机。根据该报告说，到2030年，气候变化、中国的城市化进程以及中产阶层的生活方式，将导致用水需求大幅提升，因此造成的水源不足进而致使庄稼失收。正如报告所指出：”到2030年，水可能会成为一个比能量或矿物质更重要的竞争源头。“
Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.
到2030年，全球对粮食的需求预计将增加35％以上，这意味着世界将需要更多的水。毕竟，农业和畜牧业用水占使用量的70％。根据一项较大的国际研究，全球需水量大部份是用在维持农业和家畜方面，需求将上升到高于我们当今可持续供水的40%。
China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.
该报告指出，中国尤其易受到这种趋势的伤害。比如，来自与水源缺乏有关的环境压力，使中国的谷物产量面临重大挑战，融化的喜马拉雅冰川无助于土壤贫瘠化，还有城市化对可用土地的压力等。中国是一个主要的小麦生产国，也是紧随美国之后第二大的玉米生产国和消费国。
By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."
不过，到了2030年，中国这些农作物可能不再是自给自足，也可能会被迫增加它的进口量，NIC推断：糧食在国际市场上將有显着的价格升高。
None of this needs to happen if China as well as other developing nations pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.
如果中国和其他发展中国家一样，寻求新的方法来提高农作物产量和保护水源，这些结果完全没有需要发生。 NIC提出了三个新的技术需要发展：转基因农作物，精准农业，高科技灌溉。
· The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics enabled by molecular biology hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.
NIC认为，通过植物遗传学启用的分子生物学，为未来15-20年实现粮食安全持很大希望。肥料需求少量、能抵抗昆虫和乾旱的农作物可以通过分子植物培植。像中国这样的国家，将不得不克服消费者和国际规章的阻力。
· Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, "autonomous tractors" think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that "vertical" farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.
机器人技术能帮助农民降低他们所需要的水量、肥料和种子。 NIC说，在未来5到10年，自主農耕机作为高度自动化生产方向上的设施，可以更有效地应用计算器技术在耕种上。 NIC还报告，在高层结构里的“垂直式＂农场经营可以帮助提高产量，降低水的消耗量。
· Irrigation systems on farms waste roughly 60% of the water used. Micro-irrigation systems that use IT to gauge exactly how much water needs to be dripped on plants could boost yields dramatically. The cost of today's micro-irrigation systems, however, is still high.
农场的灌溉系统浪费了大约60％的用水。微灌系统使用网络技术来衡量到底需要浇多少水在植物上，因而能显着提高产量。然而，目前的微灌系统的成本仍然是高昂的。
As with any set of predictions it difficult to say how fast or even whether any of these new technologies will gain traction. At the very least, they do present some intriguing ideas for investors looking for a way to profit on the 21st century economy.
与任何预测一样，这些新技术有多快甚至是否会大规模应用也是难于估计的。但至少，在为投资者寻找21世纪的经济利润的方式上，他们确实提出了一些有趣的想法。
评论翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译：Sonata14 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-143179-1-1.html
Emily Sheafe · 2 months ago
The fact that the NIC suggests GMO crops is outright stupid. GMO crops in the end ruin the land (look at the farmer suicide crisis in India as a result of GMO crops). The amount of petro-chemical fertilizers that will be required to maintain said crops will runoff into the water supply creating an even bigger crisis.
NIC提议转基因作物的事实是彻头彻尾地愚蠢的。转基因作物最后会毁了土地 (看看印度农民的自杀危机，这就是转基因作物导致的结果)。石油化工化肥的数量将被需求以维持所说的产量，然而，这些化肥流入供水里却在制造更大的危机。
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
121212121212 · a month ago
only an idiot liberal would believe this the earth is 75% water
只有一个白痴的自由主义者会相信地球有75％是水
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
What about recycling of water, desalinization of water, etc. What about the energy requirements of water usage. War will still come due to lack of resources.
循环水，脱盐水等等怎么样。能源需求用水量又怎么样。战争还是会因资源缺乏而发生。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taishanese · 2 months ago
There is alot of water North of China. Russia is a nation of only 140 million people, yet guard her territory vigilantly not giving an inch of ground to the Chinese. Something has to give.
中国的北方有许多水。俄罗斯是一个只有1.4亿人的国家，却警惕地捍卫自己的领土，她的领土一寸也不会给中国人。 但某些事情上却不得不给。
Darkseid of Apokolips Taishanese · 2 months ago
Russia will nuke China if China attempts to take any Russian land, resources or people. Perhaps that will be the easiest way to reduce the Chinese overpopulation. Russia's fertility replacement is rising and is near zero population growth. Don't worry, Russia remembers the Golden Horde invasions in the middle ages to this day. Putin is well aware of this issue.
By the way, that's how Moscow gained its dominance in Russia; inititally as a tax collector for the Golden Horde. Although, Russia may be willing to sell China the water.
Darkseid of Apokolips 回复 Taishanese
如果中国敢试图拿取任何俄罗斯的土地、资源或人，俄罗斯将会核平中国！或许，这将是最简单的方法，以减少中国的过剩人口。俄罗斯的生育更替水平正上升，而且人口的增长率已由负数靠近零。不要担心，直到今天，俄罗斯仍然记得在中世纪金帐汗国的入侵。普京显然很清楚这个问题。
顺便说一下，莫斯科正是這樣在俄罗斯获得其霸主地位的；其最初只是当金帐汗国的一个收税者。尽管，俄罗斯可能愿意出售用水给中国。
Taishanese Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
It's Friday, but Sunday's a comin. We need to keep in mind, that Russia, as a global power, is bygone era. There will come a day when Chinese deliver systems will be able to overwhelm Russia (that I'm sure of).
Time is on China's side. And I believe you know that as well. It's Friday, but Sundays' a comin.
Taishanese 回复 Darkseid of Apokolips
虽然今天是星期五，然而星期天即将到来。我们要记住，俄罗斯作为一个全球强权已是过去的时代。将来有那么的一天，中国的投射系统能够压倒俄罗斯 (我敢肯定)。
时代站在中国的一边。而且我相信你亦知道的。今天是星期五，然而星期天即将就来临。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Look-Like-Buy.com · 2 months ago
i cannot even imagine to have water crisis, i understand all the changes in the climate but geee water crisis
我甚至不能想像有水危机，我明白所有的气候变化，咦，水也有危机吗？
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tony Pow · 2 months ago
If China faces water problem, India will face more problem. The water will be used more or redirected before it moves to India from Tibet plateau.
如果中国面临的是用水问题，印度将面临更多的问题。在它从XZ高原流到印度之前，水将被使用得更多或改变方向。
FORTUNE -- After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.
《CNN财富杂志》 - 每届美国总统大选之后，华盛顿特区国家情报委员会(NIC) 都会给美国情报机构提供一份长远的战略分析，发布一份关于安全风险的评估报告。其最新一份报告《2030年全球趋势：另类世界》于12月10日发布，其內容涵盖了从恐怖主义的跨边界冲突到区域经济的崩溃等许多话题。
One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."
本年度一个特别引人注目的主题是中国即将到来的粮食和水危机。根据该报告说，到2030年，气候变化、中国的城市化进程以及中产阶层的生活方式，将导致用水需求大幅提升，因此造成的水源不足进而致使庄稼失收。正如报告所指出：”到2030年，水可能会成为一个比能量或矿物质更重要的竞争源头。“
Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.
到2030年，全球对粮食的需求预计将增加35％以上，这意味着世界将需要更多的水。毕竟，农业和畜牧业用水占使用量的70％。根据一项较大的国际研究，全球需水量大部份是用在维持农业和家畜方面，需求将上升到高于我们当今可持续供水的40%。
China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.
该报告指出，中国尤其易受到这种趋势的伤害。比如，来自与水源缺乏有关的环境压力，使中国的谷物产量面临重大挑战，融化的喜马拉雅冰川无助于土壤贫瘠化，还有城市化对可用土地的压力等。中国是一个主要的小麦生产国，也是紧随美国之后第二大的玉米生产国和消费国。
By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."
不过，到了2030年，中国这些农作物可能不再是自给自足，也可能会被迫增加它的进口量，NIC推断：糧食在国际市场上將有显着的价格升高。
None of this needs to happen if China as well as other developing nations pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.
如果中国和其他发展中国家一样，寻求新的方法来提高农作物产量和保护水源，这些结果完全没有需要发生。 NIC提出了三个新的技术需要发展：转基因农作物，精准农业，高科技灌溉。
· The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics enabled by molecular biology hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.
NIC认为，通过植物遗传学启用的分子生物学，为未来15-20年实现粮食安全持很大希望。肥料需求少量、能抵抗昆虫和乾旱的农作物可以通过分子植物培植。像中国这样的国家，将不得不克服消费者和国际规章的阻力。
· Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, "autonomous tractors" think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that "vertical" farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.
机器人技术能帮助农民降低他们所需要的水量、肥料和种子。 NIC说，在未来5到10年，自主農耕机作为高度自动化生产方向上的设施，可以更有效地应用计算器技术在耕种上。 NIC还报告，在高层结构里的“垂直式＂农场经营可以帮助提高产量，降低水的消耗量。
· Irrigation systems on farms waste roughly 60% of the water used. Micro-irrigation systems that use IT to gauge exactly how much water needs to be dripped on plants could boost yields dramatically. The cost of today's micro-irrigation systems, however, is still high.
农场的灌溉系统浪费了大约60％的用水。微灌系统使用网络技术来衡量到底需要浇多少水在植物上，因而能显着提高产量。然而，目前的微灌系统的成本仍然是高昂的。
As with any set of predictions it difficult to say how fast or even whether any of these new technologies will gain traction. At the very least, they do present some intriguing ideas for investors looking for a way to profit on the 21st century economy.
与任何预测一样，这些新技术有多快甚至是否会大规模应用也是难于估计的。但至少，在为投资者寻找21世纪的经济利润的方式上，他们确实提出了一些有趣的想法。
评论翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译：Sonata14 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-143179-1-1.html
Emily Sheafe · 2 months ago
The fact that the NIC suggests GMO crops is outright stupid. GMO crops in the end ruin the land (look at the farmer suicide crisis in India as a result of GMO crops). The amount of petro-chemical fertilizers that will be required to maintain said crops will runoff into the water supply creating an even bigger crisis.
NIC提议转基因作物的事实是彻头彻尾地愚蠢的。转基因作物最后会毁了土地 (看看印度农民的自杀危机，这就是转基因作物导致的结果)。石油化工化肥的数量将被需求以维持所说的产量，然而，这些化肥流入供水里却在制造更大的危机。
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121212121212 · a month ago
only an idiot liberal would believe this the earth is 75% water
只有一个白痴的自由主义者会相信地球有75％是水
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Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
What about recycling of water, desalinization of water, etc. What about the energy requirements of water usage. War will still come due to lack of resources.
循环水，脱盐水等等怎么样。能源需求用水量又怎么样。战争还是会因资源缺乏而发生。
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Taishanese · 2 months ago
There is alot of water North of China. Russia is a nation of only 140 million people, yet guard her territory vigilantly not giving an inch of ground to the Chinese. Something has to give.
中国的北方有许多水。俄罗斯是一个只有1.4亿人的国家，却警惕地捍卫自己的领土，她的领土一寸也不会给中国人。 但某些事情上却不得不给。
Darkseid of Apokolips Taishanese · 2 months ago
Russia will nuke China if China attempts to take any Russian land, resources or people. Perhaps that will be the easiest way to reduce the Chinese overpopulation. Russia's fertility replacement is rising and is near zero population growth. Don't worry, Russia remembers the Golden Horde invasions in the middle ages to this day. Putin is well aware of this issue.
By the way, that's how Moscow gained its dominance in Russia; inititally as a tax collector for the Golden Horde. Although, Russia may be willing to sell China the water.
Darkseid of Apokolips 回复 Taishanese
如果中国敢试图拿取任何俄罗斯的土地、资源或人，俄罗斯将会核平中国！或许，这将是最简单的方法，以减少中国的过剩人口。俄罗斯的生育更替水平正上升，而且人口的增长率已由负数靠近零。不要担心，直到今天，俄罗斯仍然记得在中世纪金帐汗国的入侵。普京显然很清楚这个问题。
顺便说一下，莫斯科正是這樣在俄罗斯获得其霸主地位的；其最初只是当金帐汗国的一个收税者。尽管，俄罗斯可能愿意出售用水给中国。
Taishanese Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
It's Friday, but Sunday's a comin. We need to keep in mind, that Russia, as a global power, is bygone era. There will come a day when Chinese deliver systems will be able to overwhelm Russia (that I'm sure of).
Time is on China's side. And I believe you know that as well. It's Friday, but Sundays' a comin.
Taishanese 回复 Darkseid of Apokolips
虽然今天是星期五，然而星期天即将到来。我们要记住，俄罗斯作为一个全球强权已是过去的时代。将来有那么的一天，中国的投射系统能够压倒俄罗斯 (我敢肯定)。
时代站在中国的一边。而且我相信你亦知道的。今天是星期五，然而星期天即将就来临。
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Look-Like-Buy.com · 2 months ago
i cannot even imagine to have water crisis, i understand all the changes in the climate but geee water crisis
我甚至不能想像有水危机，我明白所有的气候变化，咦，水也有危机吗？
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Tony Pow · 2 months ago
If China faces water problem, India will face more problem. The water will be used more or redirected before it moves to India from Tibet plateau.
如果中国面临的是用水问题，印度将面临更多的问题。在它从XZ高原流到印度之前，水将被使用得更多或改变方向。http://www.acfun.tv/a/ac567391
FORTUNE -- After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.
《CNN财富杂志》 - 每届美国总统大选之后，华盛顿特区国家情报委员会(NIC) 都会给美国情报机构提供一份长远的战略分析，发布一份关于安全风险的评估报告。其最新一份报告《2030年全球趋势：另类世界》于12月10日发布，其內容涵盖了从恐怖主义的跨边界冲突到区域经济的崩溃等许多话题。
One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."
本年度一个特别引人注目的主题是中国即将到来的粮食和水危机。根据该报告说，到2030年，气候变化、中国的城市化进程以及中产阶层的生活方式，将导致用水需求大幅提升，因此造成的水源不足进而致使庄稼失收。正如报告所指出：”到2030年，水可能会成为一个比能量或矿物质更重要的竞争源头。“
Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.
到2030年，全球对粮食的需求预计将增加35％以上，这意味着世界将需要更多的水。毕竟，农业和畜牧业用水占使用量的70％。根据一项较大的国际研究，全球需水量大部份是用在维持农业和家畜方面，需求将上升到高于我们当今可持续供水的40%。
China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.
该报告指出，中国尤其易受到这种趋势的伤害。比如，来自与水源缺乏有关的环境压力，使中国的谷物产量面临重大挑战，融化的喜马拉雅冰川无助于土壤贫瘠化，还有城市化对可用土地的压力等。中国是一个主要的小麦生产国，也是紧随美国之后第二大的玉米生产国和消费国。
By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."
不过，到了2030年，中国这些农作物可能不再是自给自足，也可能会被迫增加它的进口量，NIC推断：糧食在国际市场上將有显着的价格升高。
None of this needs to happen if China as well as other developing nations pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.
如果中国和其他发展中国家一样，寻求新的方法来提高农作物产量和保护水源，这些结果完全没有需要发生。 NIC提出了三个新的技术需要发展：转基因农作物，精准农业，高科技灌溉。
· The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics enabled by molecular biology hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.
NIC认为，通过植物遗传学启用的分子生物学，为未来15-20年实现粮食安全持很大希望。肥料需求少量、能抵抗昆虫和乾旱的农作物可以通过分子植物培植。像中国这样的国家，将不得不克服消费者和国际规章的阻力。
· Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, "autonomous tractors" think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that "vertical" farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.
机器人技术能帮助农民降低他们所需要的水量、肥料和种子。 NIC说，在未来5到10年，自主農耕机作为高度自动化生产方向上的设施，可以更有效地应用计算器技术在耕种上。 NIC还报告，在高层结构里的“垂直式＂农场经营可以帮助提高产量，降低水的消耗量。
· Irrigation systems on farms waste roughly 60% of the water used. Micro-irrigation systems that use IT to gauge exactly how much water needs to be dripped on plants could boost yields dramatically. The cost of today's micro-irrigation systems, however, is still high.
农场的灌溉系统浪费了大约60％的用水。微灌系统使用网络技术来衡量到底需要浇多少水在植物上，因而能显着提高产量。然而，目前的微灌系统的成本仍然是高昂的。
As with any set of predictions it difficult to say how fast or even whether any of these new technologies will gain traction. At the very least, they do present some intriguing ideas for investors looking for a way to profit on the 21st century economy.
与任何预测一样，这些新技术有多快甚至是否会大规模应用也是难于估计的。但至少，在为投资者寻找21世纪的经济利润的方式上，他们确实提出了一些有趣的想法。
评论翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译：Sonata14 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-143179-1-1.html
Emily Sheafe · 2 months ago
The fact that the NIC suggests GMO crops is outright stupid. GMO crops in the end ruin the land (look at the farmer suicide crisis in India as a result of GMO crops). The amount of petro-chemical fertilizers that will be required to maintain said crops will runoff into the water supply creating an even bigger crisis.
NIC提议转基因作物的事实是彻头彻尾地愚蠢的。转基因作物最后会毁了土地 (看看印度农民的自杀危机，这就是转基因作物导致的结果)。石油化工化肥的数量将被需求以维持所说的产量，然而，这些化肥流入供水里却在制造更大的危机。
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
121212121212 · a month ago
only an idiot liberal would believe this the earth is 75% water
只有一个白痴的自由主义者会相信地球有75％是水
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
What about recycling of water, desalinization of water, etc. What about the energy requirements of water usage. War will still come due to lack of resources.
循环水，脱盐水等等怎么样。能源需求用水量又怎么样。战争还是会因资源缺乏而发生。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taishanese · 2 months ago
There is alot of water North of China. Russia is a nation of only 140 million people, yet guard her territory vigilantly not giving an inch of ground to the Chinese. Something has to give.
中国的北方有许多水。俄罗斯是一个只有1.4亿人的国家，却警惕地捍卫自己的领土，她的领土一寸也不会给中国人。 但某些事情上却不得不给。
Darkseid of Apokolips Taishanese · 2 months ago
Russia will nuke China if China attempts to take any Russian land, resources or people. Perhaps that will be the easiest way to reduce the Chinese overpopulation. Russia's fertility replacement is rising and is near zero population growth. Don't worry, Russia remembers the Golden Horde invasions in the middle ages to this day. Putin is well aware of this issue.
By the way, that's how Moscow gained its dominance in Russia; inititally as a tax collector for the Golden Horde. Although, Russia may be willing to sell China the water.
Darkseid of Apokolips 回复 Taishanese
如果中国敢试图拿取任何俄罗斯的土地、资源或人，俄罗斯将会核平中国！或许，这将是最简单的方法，以减少中国的过剩人口。俄罗斯的生育更替水平正上升，而且人口的增长率已由负数靠近零。不要担心，直到今天，俄罗斯仍然记得在中世纪金帐汗国的入侵。普京显然很清楚这个问题。
顺便说一下，莫斯科正是這樣在俄罗斯获得其霸主地位的；其最初只是当金帐汗国的一个收税者。尽管，俄罗斯可能愿意出售用水给中国。
Taishanese Darkseid of Apokolips · 2 months ago
It's Friday, but Sunday's a comin. We need to keep in mind, that Russia, as a global power, is bygone era. There will come a day when Chinese deliver systems will be able to overwhelm Russia (that I'm sure of).
Time is on China's side. And I believe you know that as well. It's Friday, but Sundays' a comin.
Taishanese 回复 Darkseid of Apokolips
虽然今天是星期五，然而星期天即将到来。我们要记住，俄罗斯作为一个全球强权已是过去的时代。将来有那么的一天，中国的投射系统能够压倒俄罗斯 (我敢肯定)。
时代站在中国的一边。而且我相信你亦知道的。今天是星期五，然而星期天即将就来临。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Look-Like-Buy.com · 2 months ago
i cannot even imagine to have water crisis, i understand all the changes in the climate but geee water crisis
我甚至不能想像有水危机，我明白所有的气候变化，咦，水也有危机吗？
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tony Pow · 2 months ago
If China faces water problem, India will face more problem. The water will be used more or redirected before it moves to India from Tibet plateau.
如果中国面临的是用水问题，印度将面临更多的问题。在它从XZ高原流到印度之前，水将被使用得更多或改变方向。
不用等了，已经危机了
zdong 发表于 2013-2-20 20:45 ![]()
不用等了，已经危机了
你指的是污染吧
不用等了，已经危机了
你指的是污染吧
北方，西部确实是，
南方没问题，还好我生活在南方
南方没问题，还好我生活在南方