美国连线网站发布大运卫星照片

本文由@明武二太子 发布在超大“海外资讯”版：

The Y-20 at Yanliang on Jan. 1. Photo: GeoEye GeoEye 1
A week after the publication of blurry photographs depicting what appears to be

China’s first long-range jet transport, Danger Room has obtained satellite imagery

of the new plane at an airfield in central China.

在中国首架长程喷气运输机爆出毛片的一周之后，Danger Room获得了位于中国中部的这架飞机

的卫星照片。


The images, acquired by the GeoEye 1 and IKONOS spacecraft — both belonging to

commercial satellite operator GeoEye headquartered in Washington, D.C. —

corroborate the general layout of the Xian Aircraft Corporation Y-20, the existence

of which has been confirmed by Beijing. They also underscore the emerging consensus

among Western experts that the Y-20, while outwardly impressive, could lack the

performance of even much older American, Russian and European transports.

这个照片获自GeoEye 1和IKONOS飞船，拥有这两艘飞船的商业卫星公司GeoEye总部位于华盛顿

。这些照片正式了西飞运20的存在，其存在也已被北京方面所证实（？）。这些照片也证实了

西方专家最新的一致观点，即使运20的外形令人印象深刻，它的性能还是落后于老式的美国、

俄国和欧洲的运输机。



The IKONOS image (below) is dated Dec. 25. It shows the Y-20 outside a large hangar

at Yanliang airfield, home of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s test

establishment. The base is crowded with examples of the PLAAF’s other main

transports, including Y-8 medium airlifters and, apparently, tanker versions of the

aged H-6 bomber — both types of which could in theory be replaced by the Y-20,

ostensibly giving China the same global military reach the U.S. and other advanced

nations have enjoyed for half a century.

下图的IKONOS照片拍摄于12月25日。其显示运20位于阎良机场巨大机库之外，阎良是PLAAF的测

试基地。这个基地还有很多其它的PLAAF主力运输机，包括运八以及老式的轰六的加油机型号。

它们在理论上都会为运20所代替。这将带给PLA“表面上的，假装的”美国及其它发达国家半个

世纪之前已经具备的全球到达能力。

The GeoEye 1 photo from Jan. 1 (above) depicts the new transport, which isn’t

known to have flown yet, on one of Yanliang’s runways, surrounded by people and

vehicles. News reports have claimed the Y-20 is currently undergoing runway taxi

tests in preparation for its eventual first flight.

摄于1.1的GeoEye的照片则显示这架尚未试飞的运输机在阎良的跑道上，被人和汽车围着。最新

的报道声称运20正在进行滑跑试验，为最终的首飞做着准备。


But even after that happens, the Y-20 will probably need lots of work. Indeed, when

it comes to jet-transport technology Beijing is “falling behind, not catching up,

” John Pike, an analyst with the Virginia-based Globalstrategy.org, writes in an

e-mail to Danger Room.

但即使已经首飞，运20已然面临着许多亟待解决的问题。试试上，中国的喷气运输机技术“差

距越来越大，而不是越来越小”，这是弗吉尼亚环球战略机构的一个叫John Pike的专家在给

Danger Room的电子邮件中说的。


Specifically, the Y-20 needs new engines — and there’s little evidence that

Beijing is making much progress on that front. The prototype is reportedly fitted

with old, Russian-made D-30 engines that probably aren’t adequate for the Y-20′s

design.

特别的，运20需要新的引擎，但目前没有迹象表明中国在这上面取得了什么进展。运20的原型

机被报道已然采用了老旧的俄制D30发动机，但这种发动机并不能满足运20的设计需求。

The new imagery is sharper, more detailed and shot from a higher angle than the

grainy first photos of the Y-20 that appeared on Chinese internet forums in late

December, providing a much more reliable basis for assessing the transport’s

layout. Apparently slightly smaller than the U.S. Air Force’s workhorse C-17, the

Y-20 sports the same wide swept wing and T-shaped tail as the Boeing-made C-17,

blueprints of which China obtained several years ago through a spy working for the

Chicago-based plane manufacturer.

新的图片比十二月底在中国网络论坛上爆出的毛片更加的清晰，角度也更高，有利于对其布局

进行更可靠的分析。显然，运20比C17要更小，采用了和C17相似的机翼和T尾。中国的spy数年

之前从一家位于芝加哥的飞机制造厂获得了C17的设计图。

“In order to get the kind of range/payload capabilities you need to use this type

of plane, it all comes down to the engines,” Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with

Virginia market forecaster The Teal Group, emails Danger Room. “Designing a large,

high-bypass turbofan is even harder than designing a combat engine [for jet

fighters],” Aboulafia adds. “China shows no signs of being able to do that.”

“为了实现这架飞机的设计载重量，引擎是重中之重”。The Teal Group的市场预测师Richard

Aboulafia在给Danger Room的电子邮件中这样写道。“设计一个大涵道比涡扇发动机远比设计

一个战斗机引擎更加困难”Aboulafia补充道。“没有任何迹象表明中国有能力完成这样的工作

”


There are only four companies in the world capable of building the kind of engines

the Y-20 needs, Aboulafia says: three — GE/CFM, Rolls Royce and Pratt & Whitney —

are Western companies and one is Russian. Arms controls in the West make it

unlikely that Beijing will be able to source the Y-20′s motors from the former

firms.

世界上只有四家公司可以制造运20需要的引擎，Aboulafia说到：三家西方公司，GE，罗尔斯罗

伊斯，Pratt & Whitney,以及一家俄罗斯公司。西方对中国的军事禁运表明中国不可能从以上

公司获得运20需要的引擎。

“In short, there are three possible explanations,” Aboulafia continues. ”One,

this is just a prototype, or series of prototypes. Two, it will be built in series

production, using a domestically-built knockoff engine that will result in a very

short-range plane with a light payload. Three, they’ll do a deal with the Russians

to start importing engines that can turn this into a Chinese copy of a former

Soviet transport design.”

“简单来说有三种可能性”Aboulafia继续说到“1，这只是一个原型机，或者一系列原型机。2

，它可能会批量生产，采用国内仿造的引擎，单位导致航程缩短以及载重下降。3，他们将从俄

罗斯进口引擎，并且进行仿造”

But even a copy of an older Soviet transport would likely feature only modest

performance compared to more modern, unique designs. Moreover, Russia has been

reluctant lately to sell engines to China, justifiably fearing that Beijing’s

engineers will illegally reverse-engineer the motors.

但与最新的现代化设计相比，仿造老式苏联运输机只能得到不温不火的性能。更重要的是俄国

已经开始不愿意给中国卖引擎，因为惧怕中国对其进行逆向工程。


All of which means the Y-20, so far, is more show than substance — an intriguing

subject for internet forums and passing satellites, but not yet a threat to the

transportation dominance of the U.S., Russia and Europe.

以上所有这些都表明运20目前更多的是给网络论坛和卫星的一个展示，而不是对于美国，俄国和欧洲运输机垄断地位的威胁。

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/01/chinas-new-transport/


本文由@明武二太子 发布在超大“海外资讯”版：

The Y-20 at Yanliang on Jan. 1. Photo: GeoEye GeoEye 1
A week after the publication of blurry photographs depicting what appears to be

China’s first long-range jet transport, Danger Room has obtained satellite imagery

of the new plane at an airfield in central China.

在中国首架长程喷气运输机爆出毛片的一周之后，Danger Room获得了位于中国中部的这架飞机

的卫星照片。


The images, acquired by the GeoEye 1 and IKONOS spacecraft — both belonging to

commercial satellite operator GeoEye headquartered in Washington, D.C. —

corroborate the general layout of the Xian Aircraft Corporation Y-20, the existence

of which has been confirmed by Beijing. They also underscore the emerging consensus

among Western experts that the Y-20, while outwardly impressive, could lack the

performance of even much older American, Russian and European transports.

这个照片获自GeoEye 1和IKONOS飞船，拥有这两艘飞船的商业卫星公司GeoEye总部位于华盛顿

。这些照片正式了西飞运20的存在，其存在也已被北京方面所证实（？）。这些照片也证实了

西方专家最新的一致观点，即使运20的外形令人印象深刻，它的性能还是落后于老式的美国、

俄国和欧洲的运输机。



The IKONOS image (below) is dated Dec. 25. It shows the Y-20 outside a large hangar

at Yanliang airfield, home of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s test

establishment. The base is crowded with examples of the PLAAF’s other main

transports, including Y-8 medium airlifters and, apparently, tanker versions of the

aged H-6 bomber — both types of which could in theory be replaced by the Y-20,

ostensibly giving China the same global military reach the U.S. and other advanced

nations have enjoyed for half a century.

下图的IKONOS照片拍摄于12月25日。其显示运20位于阎良机场巨大机库之外，阎良是PLAAF的测

试基地。这个基地还有很多其它的PLAAF主力运输机，包括运八以及老式的轰六的加油机型号。

它们在理论上都会为运20所代替。这将带给PLA“表面上的，假装的”美国及其它发达国家半个

世纪之前已经具备的全球到达能力。

The GeoEye 1 photo from Jan. 1 (above) depicts the new transport, which isn’t

known to have flown yet, on one of Yanliang’s runways, surrounded by people and

vehicles. News reports have claimed the Y-20 is currently undergoing runway taxi

tests in preparation for its eventual first flight.

摄于1.1的GeoEye的照片则显示这架尚未试飞的运输机在阎良的跑道上，被人和汽车围着。最新

的报道声称运20正在进行滑跑试验，为最终的首飞做着准备。


But even after that happens, the Y-20 will probably need lots of work. Indeed, when

it comes to jet-transport technology Beijing is “falling behind, not catching up,

” John Pike, an analyst with the Virginia-based Globalstrategy.org, writes in an

e-mail to Danger Room.

但即使已经首飞，运20已然面临着许多亟待解决的问题。试试上，中国的喷气运输机技术“差

距越来越大，而不是越来越小”，这是弗吉尼亚环球战略机构的一个叫John Pike的专家在给

Danger Room的电子邮件中说的。


Specifically, the Y-20 needs new engines — and there’s little evidence that

Beijing is making much progress on that front. The prototype is reportedly fitted

with old, Russian-made D-30 engines that probably aren’t adequate for the Y-20′s

design.

特别的，运20需要新的引擎，但目前没有迹象表明中国在这上面取得了什么进展。运20的原型

机被报道已然采用了老旧的俄制D30发动机，但这种发动机并不能满足运20的设计需求。

The new imagery is sharper, more detailed and shot from a higher angle than the

grainy first photos of the Y-20 that appeared on Chinese internet forums in late

December, providing a much more reliable basis for assessing the transport’s

layout. Apparently slightly smaller than the U.S. Air Force’s workhorse C-17, the

Y-20 sports the same wide swept wing and T-shaped tail as the Boeing-made C-17,

blueprints of which China obtained several years ago through a spy working for the

Chicago-based plane manufacturer.

新的图片比十二月底在中国网络论坛上爆出的毛片更加的清晰，角度也更高，有利于对其布局

进行更可靠的分析。显然，运20比C17要更小，采用了和C17相似的机翼和T尾。中国的spy数年

之前从一家位于芝加哥的飞机制造厂获得了C17的设计图。

“In order to get the kind of range/payload capabilities you need to use this type

of plane, it all comes down to the engines,” Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with

Virginia market forecaster The Teal Group, emails Danger Room. “Designing a large,

high-bypass turbofan is even harder than designing a combat engine [for jet

fighters],” Aboulafia adds. “China shows no signs of being able to do that.”

“为了实现这架飞机的设计载重量，引擎是重中之重”。The Teal Group的市场预测师Richard

Aboulafia在给Danger Room的电子邮件中这样写道。“设计一个大涵道比涡扇发动机远比设计

一个战斗机引擎更加困难”Aboulafia补充道。“没有任何迹象表明中国有能力完成这样的工作

”


There are only four companies in the world capable of building the kind of engines

the Y-20 needs, Aboulafia says: three — GE/CFM, Rolls Royce and Pratt & Whitney —

are Western companies and one is Russian. Arms controls in the West make it

unlikely that Beijing will be able to source the Y-20′s motors from the former

firms.

世界上只有四家公司可以制造运20需要的引擎，Aboulafia说到：三家西方公司，GE，罗尔斯罗

伊斯，Pratt & Whitney,以及一家俄罗斯公司。西方对中国的军事禁运表明中国不可能从以上

公司获得运20需要的引擎。

“In short, there are three possible explanations,” Aboulafia continues. ”One,

this is just a prototype, or series of prototypes. Two, it will be built in series

production, using a domestically-built knockoff engine that will result in a very

short-range plane with a light payload. Three, they’ll do a deal with the Russians

to start importing engines that can turn this into a Chinese copy of a former

Soviet transport design.”

“简单来说有三种可能性”Aboulafia继续说到“1，这只是一个原型机，或者一系列原型机。2

，它可能会批量生产，采用国内仿造的引擎，单位导致航程缩短以及载重下降。3，他们将从俄

罗斯进口引擎，并且进行仿造”

But even a copy of an older Soviet transport would likely feature only modest

performance compared to more modern, unique designs. Moreover, Russia has been

reluctant lately to sell engines to China, justifiably fearing that Beijing’s

engineers will illegally reverse-engineer the motors.

但与最新的现代化设计相比，仿造老式苏联运输机只能得到不温不火的性能。更重要的是俄国

已经开始不愿意给中国卖引擎，因为惧怕中国对其进行逆向工程。


All of which means the Y-20, so far, is more show than substance — an intriguing

subject for internet forums and passing satellites, but not yet a threat to the

transportation dominance of the U.S., Russia and Europe.

以上所有这些都表明运20目前更多的是给网络论坛和卫星的一个展示，而不是对于美国，俄国和欧洲运输机垄断地位的威胁。

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/01/chinas-new-transport/