关于那篇中国海军是纸老虎，篡改过的文章被机器人发了很 ...

三月份的文章，龙腾上有过翻译，原文根本没有拿中国海军跟英，法，俄的比较，只跟美国比了，这是地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-275198-1-1.html，


THE recent transit of three Chinese warships between Java and Christmas Island, as well as the new Chinese aircraft carrier being deployed in the South China Sea, are causing predictable overreaction.

近来介于爪哇岛和圣诞岛过境的三艘中国军舰，以及部署在中国南海的新型中国航空母舰，正在造成可以想见的过度反应。


The fact is that neither of these are momentous events and they certainly do not herald the coming of Chinese naval superiority in the Western Pacific.

事实是这些都不是重大事件，而且他们当然也不会宣告中国海军在西太平洋的优势即将到来。


China is still way behind advanced navies, such as those of the US. It will be a long time before it has a true distant power projection capability able to wage sustained naval warfare. It has no history of carrying out modern warfare at sea or in the air and if it confronts the US on the high seas it will certainly lose.

中国仍然远远落后美国的先进海军，在具备能够发动持续海战的远程兵力投射以前，还有很漫长的时间。中国在历史上还未实现在海上或空中的现代战争，要是中国直接在公海对上美国的话，必败无疑。


None of this is to deny that China is making some quite impressive progress in its naval modernisation. That is only natural for an emerging power that until recently has not had a navy worth talking about. China is now highly dependent on seaborne trade and will be increasingly interested in securing its trade routes where possible. The fact is, however, that no nation is capable of defending all its trade routes. The best one can do is to co-operate with like-minded friends and share the burden of maritime security.

这一切也不是否认中国在海军现代化正在制造令人相当印象深刻的进步。这只是一个很自然的新兴力量，直到最近都没有值得一提的海军。中国目前高度仰赖海上贸易，而对保护可能的贸易航线将会有越来越浓厚的兴趣。然而，事实是没有国家有能力保卫其所有的贸易航线，最有办法的可能是与志同道合的盟友合作，并共同分享海上安全的重任。



The big strategic problem for China is that it has very few friends in our region worth talking about - unless you think North Korea and Pakistan are reliable security partners. It is a strategic loner.

中国的大战略问题是在我们区域只有非常少的盟友值得讨论，除非你认为朝鲜和巴基斯坦是靠谱的防卫伙伴。中国是战略的孤行者。


China is only making matters worse for itself by threatening Japan in the East China Sea and The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea.

通过在东海威吓日本，在南海威吓菲律宾、越南和马来西亚，中国只是把问题变得越来越糟。


A prominent Chinese academic has recently declared with regard to China’s territorial rights in the South China Sea that it “is entitled to use all means at its disposal to settle disputes to its satisfaction” and this includes “employing its full capacities to assert sovereignty”. Such provocative statements would not be made without official endorsement in a tightly regimented society such as China’s.

一位显赫的中国学者最近宣称，"对于在南海的中国领土权利，有资格采取一切手段来满意地解决争端"。这包含"利用其全面能力来声张主权"。这种挑衅性言论在紧紧管控的中国社会下，没有官方同意是不会产生的。


So, we have to be concerned that China is starting to throw its weight about and that it will increasingly have the military capabilities to bully smaller powers, especially in Southeast Asia.

所以我们必须关注中国正开始仗势欺人，而且将越来越有军事能力来欺压小国，尤其是东南亚国家。

That is of concern to Australia because we want to see a Southeast Asia that resists Chinese hegemony.

这对于澳大利亚事关重要，因为我们希望看到一个能抵抗中国霸权的东南亚。



Japan is in a much stronger position because it still has a highly competent navy and air force and is taking steps to be able to handle Chinese military provocations, short of all-out war.

日本处在更有利的位置上，因为日本仍有一支非常能干的海空军力，正在采取行动来应付中国的军事挑衅和短时间的全面战争。


This is where the US comes in because it has an infinitely more powerful navy in the Pacific than China. We should encourage Washington to reinforce its presence in our region. In the upcoming visit by Barack Obama in April to Japan, South Korea, The Philippines and Malaysia, it will be important for the US President to demonstrate tangibly the so-called pivot to Asia.

这里也是美国加入的地方，因为它在太平洋有比中国更无穷强大的海军。我们应该鼓励华盛顿加强在本地区的存在。在美国总统奥巴马在4月即将访问日本、南韩、菲律宾和马来西亚之际，对于美国总统来说明白地展示所谓的亚洲枢纽将是重要的。


Australia can usefully assist here, not only by facilitating the presence of US marines in Darwin but also by responding positively to any US requests for greater use of our naval facilities in Western Australia and the future use of Cocos Islands.

澳洲可以有效地协助本区，不但可通过促进美国海军陆战队在达尔文的存在，同时积极地回应美国的任何要求，更好地利用我们在西澳大利亚的海军设施，和未来使用科科斯群岛。



China is a land power with enormous domestic challenges ahead that will constrain its strategic ambitions.

中国是一个未来有庞大国内挑战的陆军强国，这会限制它的战略野心。


Robert Ross of Harvard University has pointed out that China’s maritime power will be limited by the constraints experienced by all land powers: extensive challenges to territorial security (China shares borders with 14 countries) and a corresponding commitment to a large ground force capability.

哈佛大学的罗伯特·罗斯指出，中国的海洋强权将被经验丰富的陆权约束，被广泛的领土安全挑战 (中国与14个国家共享边界)以及相应保证的大型陆军兵力给限制。



Historically, land powers such as Russia, Germany and France have repeatedly failed to secure maritime power. The optimal maritime strategy for a continental power such as China is what is called access-denial capability to its maritime approaches, which is precisely what China is undertaking. This was also the Soviet Union’s maritime strategy for nearly three decades.

就历史而言，像是俄罗斯、德国和法国等陆权国家都多次未能确立海洋强权。以如中国一个陆权国家来说，最佳的海上战略是反介入能力，这恰恰是中国在实施的。这也是苏联近30年的海上战略。


And like the former Soviet Union, China has limited geographical access to open seas, which can easily be constrained by superior Western detection and tracking capabilities.

而跟前苏联一样，中国只能从有限度的地区进入公海，这就可以被优异的西方探测和追踪能力所遏制。


Chinese nationalism is driving grandiose and costly expectations for a large blue-water navy, which is a traditional symbol of great power status. But now is not the time for exaggerated assessments of Chinese naval power or breathless proclamations that Australia’s strategic environment has radically changed.

中国的民族主义正把冠冕堂皇和高昂的期望推向一支大型的蓝水海军，这是一个大国地位的传统象征。但是现在不是时候去夸大评估中国的海军力量，或是屏息宣告澳洲的战略环境已经发生了根本变化。


We have heard all that before when prime minister Malcolm Fraser proclaimed that the arrival of the Soviet navy in the Indian Ocean in the 1970s heralded a serious threat to the West’s oil supplies. And where is Russia’s navy now?

我们之前都听过马尔科姆·弗雷泽(译注：澳洲前总理)宣布苏联海军在1970年代抵达印度洋时的到来，将预告一场对西方石油供应的严重威胁。可俄罗斯海军现在呢？



三月份的文章，龙腾上有过翻译，原文根本没有拿中国海军跟英，法，俄的比较，只跟美国比了，这是地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-275198-1-1.html，


THE recent transit of three Chinese warships between Java and Christmas Island, as well as the new Chinese aircraft carrier being deployed in the South China Sea, are causing predictable overreaction.

近来介于爪哇岛和圣诞岛过境的三艘中国军舰，以及部署在中国南海的新型中国航空母舰，正在造成可以想见的过度反应。


The fact is that neither of these are momentous events and they certainly do not herald the coming of Chinese naval superiority in the Western Pacific.

事实是这些都不是重大事件，而且他们当然也不会宣告中国海军在西太平洋的优势即将到来。


China is still way behind advanced navies, such as those of the US. It will be a long time before it has a true distant power projection capability able to wage sustained naval warfare. It has no history of carrying out modern warfare at sea or in the air and if it confronts the US on the high seas it will certainly lose.

中国仍然远远落后美国的先进海军，在具备能够发动持续海战的远程兵力投射以前，还有很漫长的时间。中国在历史上还未实现在海上或空中的现代战争，要是中国直接在公海对上美国的话，必败无疑。


None of this is to deny that China is making some quite impressive progress in its naval modernisation. That is only natural for an emerging power that until recently has not had a navy worth talking about. China is now highly dependent on seaborne trade and will be increasingly interested in securing its trade routes where possible. The fact is, however, that no nation is capable of defending all its trade routes. The best one can do is to co-operate with like-minded friends and share the burden of maritime security.

这一切也不是否认中国在海军现代化正在制造令人相当印象深刻的进步。这只是一个很自然的新兴力量，直到最近都没有值得一提的海军。中国目前高度仰赖海上贸易，而对保护可能的贸易航线将会有越来越浓厚的兴趣。然而，事实是没有国家有能力保卫其所有的贸易航线，最有办法的可能是与志同道合的盟友合作，并共同分享海上安全的重任。



The big strategic problem for China is that it has very few friends in our region worth talking about - unless you think North Korea and Pakistan are reliable security partners. It is a strategic loner.

中国的大战略问题是在我们区域只有非常少的盟友值得讨论，除非你认为朝鲜和巴基斯坦是靠谱的防卫伙伴。中国是战略的孤行者。


China is only making matters worse for itself by threatening Japan in the East China Sea and The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea.

通过在东海威吓日本，在南海威吓菲律宾、越南和马来西亚，中国只是把问题变得越来越糟。


A prominent Chinese academic has recently declared with regard to China’s territorial rights in the South China Sea that it “is entitled to use all means at its disposal to settle disputes to its satisfaction” and this includes “employing its full capacities to assert sovereignty”. Such provocative statements would not be made without official endorsement in a tightly regimented society such as China’s.

一位显赫的中国学者最近宣称，"对于在南海的中国领土权利，有资格采取一切手段来满意地解决争端"。这包含"利用其全面能力来声张主权"。这种挑衅性言论在紧紧管控的中国社会下，没有官方同意是不会产生的。


So, we have to be concerned that China is starting to throw its weight about and that it will increasingly have the military capabilities to bully smaller powers, especially in Southeast Asia.

所以我们必须关注中国正开始仗势欺人，而且将越来越有军事能力来欺压小国，尤其是东南亚国家。

That is of concern to Australia because we want to see a Southeast Asia that resists Chinese hegemony.

这对于澳大利亚事关重要，因为我们希望看到一个能抵抗中国霸权的东南亚。



Japan is in a much stronger position because it still has a highly competent navy and air force and is taking steps to be able to handle Chinese military provocations, short of all-out war.

日本处在更有利的位置上，因为日本仍有一支非常能干的海空军力，正在采取行动来应付中国的军事挑衅和短时间的全面战争。


This is where the US comes in because it has an infinitely more powerful navy in the Pacific than China. We should encourage Washington to reinforce its presence in our region. In the upcoming visit by Barack Obama in April to Japan, South Korea, The Philippines and Malaysia, it will be important for the US President to demonstrate tangibly the so-called pivot to Asia.

这里也是美国加入的地方，因为它在太平洋有比中国更无穷强大的海军。我们应该鼓励华盛顿加强在本地区的存在。在美国总统奥巴马在4月即将访问日本、南韩、菲律宾和马来西亚之际，对于美国总统来说明白地展示所谓的亚洲枢纽将是重要的。


Australia can usefully assist here, not only by facilitating the presence of US marines in Darwin but also by responding positively to any US requests for greater use of our naval facilities in Western Australia and the future use of Cocos Islands.

澳洲可以有效地协助本区，不但可通过促进美国海军陆战队在达尔文的存在，同时积极地回应美国的任何要求，更好地利用我们在西澳大利亚的海军设施，和未来使用科科斯群岛。



China is a land power with enormous domestic challenges ahead that will constrain its strategic ambitions.

中国是一个未来有庞大国内挑战的陆军强国，这会限制它的战略野心。


Robert Ross of Harvard University has pointed out that China’s maritime power will be limited by the constraints experienced by all land powers: extensive challenges to territorial security (China shares borders with 14 countries) and a corresponding commitment to a large ground force capability.

哈佛大学的罗伯特·罗斯指出，中国的海洋强权将被经验丰富的陆权约束，被广泛的领土安全挑战 (中国与14个国家共享边界)以及相应保证的大型陆军兵力给限制。



Historically, land powers such as Russia, Germany and France have repeatedly failed to secure maritime power. The optimal maritime strategy for a continental power such as China is what is called access-denial capability to its maritime approaches, which is precisely what China is undertaking. This was also the Soviet Union’s maritime strategy for nearly three decades.

就历史而言，像是俄罗斯、德国和法国等陆权国家都多次未能确立海洋强权。以如中国一个陆权国家来说，最佳的海上战略是反介入能力，这恰恰是中国在实施的。这也是苏联近30年的海上战略。


And like the former Soviet Union, China has limited geographical access to open seas, which can easily be constrained by superior Western detection and tracking capabilities.

而跟前苏联一样，中国只能从有限度的地区进入公海，这就可以被优异的西方探测和追踪能力所遏制。


Chinese nationalism is driving grandiose and costly expectations for a large blue-water navy, which is a traditional symbol of great power status. But now is not the time for exaggerated assessments of Chinese naval power or breathless proclamations that Australia’s strategic environment has radically changed.

中国的民族主义正把冠冕堂皇和高昂的期望推向一支大型的蓝水海军，这是一个大国地位的传统象征。但是现在不是时候去夸大评估中国的海军力量，或是屏息宣告澳洲的战略环境已经发生了根本变化。


We have heard all that before when prime minister Malcolm Fraser proclaimed that the arrival of the Soviet navy in the Indian Ocean in the 1970s heralded a serious threat to the West’s oil supplies. And where is Russia’s navy now?

我们之前都听过马尔科姆·弗雷泽(译注：澳洲前总理)宣布苏联海军在1970年代抵达印度洋时的到来，将预告一场对西方石油供应的严重威胁。可俄罗斯海军现在呢？