超级军网罗杰斯发出“狙击印度”号令 曾掀起亚洲金融风暴高潮（ ...
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/28 02:58:03
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20130822/10493053_0.shtml
正当亚洲新兴市场近日经历新一轮“金融震荡”的时候，华尔街“商品大王”吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）向市场重新发出“狙击印度”的号令，这无疑给这个正在“疗伤”中的经济体再撒上一把盐。
重申“沽空印度”
罗杰斯近日重申，正沽空印度市场，对该国前景不乐观。
罗杰斯日前在接受印度当地媒体采访时批评印度政府和央行在面对债务上升及贸易失衡问题时接连犯错，称“他们根本不懂经济”。
受累于高通胀、创纪录的经常账户赤字和触及四年低位的印度卢比，印度孟买Sensex指数已经延续多日跌势，印度10年期国债收益率在周二上涨至9.48%，一度触及2001年以来的最高水平。过去三个月，海外投资者已经抛售了价值116亿美元的印度债券和股票。
而在国债收益率不断飙升危及印度经济增长后，印度央行本周二宣布将在8月23日通过公开市场购买价值800亿卢比（13亿美元）的国债，旨在缓解现金供应紧张，并阻止卢比暴跌。
对于这个看起来似乎“可怕的经济体”，罗杰斯指出，印度债务占国内生产总值比例升势未止，财政赤字情况也令人忧虑。他批评印度政府及央行的外汇管制、限制黄金进口使情况更坏。
实际上，罗杰斯对印度历来就没有什么好印象。他曾在2011年表示，印度并不像其他亚洲国家一样前景乐观，并认为印度需要开放其零售市场和允许货币自由兑换，“印度不是一个投资好去处，但确是一个神话般的旅游国”。
在看淡印度的同时，罗杰斯对于近期美国、英国及日本等多国央行推行的量化宽松政策表示担忧。罗杰斯表示，过度的量化宽松会引发货币危机，是全球经济的隐忧。
“华尔街大佬”言出必中？
作为全球投资人“家喻户晓”的风云人物，罗杰斯被誉为最富远见的国际投资家及美国证券界最成功的实践家之一。罗杰斯与另一位“金融大鳄”索罗斯(George Soros)曾合伙创立了量子基金(Quantum Fund)，1997年狙击泰铢，掀起亚洲金融风暴的高潮。这位投资大师观点独到，却常常能够“一言中的”。
早在2004年，罗杰斯曾因对“中国股市未来四到八个月会跌入谷底”的“悲观”言论在内地迅速蹿红。而2007年初，当罗杰斯关于美国经济的大胆预言遭到华尔街嗤之以鼻的时候，10个月后美国便陷入经济衰退的事实便验证了这并非耸人听闻。而当黄金价格在2011年秋季涨至1900美元/盎司峰值之时，他便开始警告投资者称“黄色金属价格将跌至每盎司1200美元”。这一次，当然他又说对了。
值得注意的是，这位来自美国的金融家却一直看衰西方国家，对中国有着特殊的情结。在罗杰斯看来，中国的经济增速远远高于美国，并是最具投资潜力的国家。罗杰斯看好中国的很多产业，他认为在未来一年里中国商品市场会经历蓬勃的发展，且农业的发展前景是最好的。
同时，罗杰斯非常看好人民币的前景。他认为美元只是暂时避险之地，未来汇率市场将出现更多的动荡，并预言人民币汇率将继续走强，在未来最终取代美元成为全球储备货币。
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20130822/10493053_0.shtml
正当亚洲新兴市场近日经历新一轮“金融震荡”的时候，华尔街“商品大王”吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）向市场重新发出“狙击印度”的号令，这无疑给这个正在“疗伤”中的经济体再撒上一把盐。
重申“沽空印度”
罗杰斯近日重申，正沽空印度市场，对该国前景不乐观。
罗杰斯日前在接受印度当地媒体采访时批评印度政府和央行在面对债务上升及贸易失衡问题时接连犯错，称“他们根本不懂经济”。
受累于高通胀、创纪录的经常账户赤字和触及四年低位的印度卢比，印度孟买Sensex指数已经延续多日跌势，印度10年期国债收益率在周二上涨至9.48%，一度触及2001年以来的最高水平。过去三个月，海外投资者已经抛售了价值116亿美元的印度债券和股票。
而在国债收益率不断飙升危及印度经济增长后，印度央行本周二宣布将在8月23日通过公开市场购买价值800亿卢比（13亿美元）的国债，旨在缓解现金供应紧张，并阻止卢比暴跌。
对于这个看起来似乎“可怕的经济体”，罗杰斯指出，印度债务占国内生产总值比例升势未止，财政赤字情况也令人忧虑。他批评印度政府及央行的外汇管制、限制黄金进口使情况更坏。
实际上，罗杰斯对印度历来就没有什么好印象。他曾在2011年表示，印度并不像其他亚洲国家一样前景乐观，并认为印度需要开放其零售市场和允许货币自由兑换，“印度不是一个投资好去处，但确是一个神话般的旅游国”。
在看淡印度的同时，罗杰斯对于近期美国、英国及日本等多国央行推行的量化宽松政策表示担忧。罗杰斯表示，过度的量化宽松会引发货币危机，是全球经济的隐忧。
“华尔街大佬”言出必中？
作为全球投资人“家喻户晓”的风云人物，罗杰斯被誉为最富远见的国际投资家及美国证券界最成功的实践家之一。罗杰斯与另一位“金融大鳄”索罗斯(George Soros)曾合伙创立了量子基金(Quantum Fund)，1997年狙击泰铢，掀起亚洲金融风暴的高潮。这位投资大师观点独到，却常常能够“一言中的”。
早在2004年，罗杰斯曾因对“中国股市未来四到八个月会跌入谷底”的“悲观”言论在内地迅速蹿红。而2007年初，当罗杰斯关于美国经济的大胆预言遭到华尔街嗤之以鼻的时候，10个月后美国便陷入经济衰退的事实便验证了这并非耸人听闻。而当黄金价格在2011年秋季涨至1900美元/盎司峰值之时，他便开始警告投资者称“黄色金属价格将跌至每盎司1200美元”。这一次，当然他又说对了。
值得注意的是，这位来自美国的金融家却一直看衰西方国家，对中国有着特殊的情结。在罗杰斯看来，中国的经济增速远远高于美国，并是最具投资潜力的国家。罗杰斯看好中国的很多产业，他认为在未来一年里中国商品市场会经历蓬勃的发展，且农业的发展前景是最好的。
同时，罗杰斯非常看好人民币的前景。他认为美元只是暂时避险之地，未来汇率市场将出现更多的动荡，并预言人民币汇率将继续走强，在未来最终取代美元成为全球储备货币。
Raj=罗杰斯 ? 哈哈
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范，除非英美真的到了不吃印度活不下去的地步！
一定是印度给的回扣不够，和唱衰中国一样一样的
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
哈罗哈 发表于 2013-8-22 08:49
Raj=罗杰斯 ? 哈哈
不知道你在说啥
http://articles.economictimes.in ... y-prices-jim-rogers
Govt measures are hopeless, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers
Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers says the measures taken by the Indian government and the Reserve Bank recently to improve the macro-economic sentiment and arrest the fall of rupee have not yielded any results and have instead made the situation worse.
Singapore-based Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests Inc, says the government just doesn't understand economics. "Debt is rising and the balance of trade is going higher. The government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem," he said in an interview to ET. Edited excerpts:
The government and the Reserve Bank have announced a slew of reforms and policies this year to revive economic growth. What is your view on these measures?
I have been shorting India due to many reasons. The currency is in a mess, the country has very high debt, and debt-to-GDP ratio is going up every year. I am very concerned about the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit situation. The measures taken by the government are hopeless, they are making things worse. The measures for exchange control are bad and the restrictions on gold are making things worse.
How ferocious is the current bear market?
India currently has serious problems, and I am not optimistic about India. India is a very exciting country to visit, but as far as stock markets is concerned, I am not hopeful.
The rupee touched a new low of 63 on Monday. Do you think it can test 65 levels?
I am short on India because of the currency, and one of the reasons why I am making money is because the currency has gone down. I don't know what's going to happen to the world or to the Indian government. But I am judging Indian markets every day, every week, every month. So far, the government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem. Debt is going higher and the balance of trade is going higher as well. The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics.
Your prophecies on commodities have always been true. Which are the commodities you are currently betting on?
I always like things when things are depressed. I would look at sugar as an opportunity, as it is down 75% from its all-time high. I own gold and silver but at the moment I am not buying gold or silver. I think there would be a chance to buy gold or silver sometime next year. India is the largest buyer of gold, and when the largest buyer of gold stops purchasing from global markets, there will be a change in the demand-supply scenario.
India seems to have lost the opportunity to benefit from falling commodity prices and now with currency depreciation, commodity prices have become expensive. Where have we gone wrong in our policies?
The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India. If commodity prices go down, it will not help because the currency is going down. The government should realise that India has made mistakes, and it should start correcting those mistakes. The necessary actions may be painful for a while, but if you delay things, one has to pay a price. There are reports that the US 1Federal Reserve may start winding up its stimulus programme sometime soon. How negative is the sentiment among investors globally?
I am worried about the global economy because this is all artificial money. Things are looking better because the world is printing money. All the major central banks including the US, Japan, UK are printing money. This is all artificial, and this is going to end badly, when it does. Nobody so far had success by printing money.
There are fears of a sovereign downgrade for India...
I don't pay any attention to rating agencies as they do not make money for you, so why should you pay attention to them? If they file any downgrades, then you may find bottoms in markets, may be that would be a time to buy again.
We have serious problems on the currency front and there are concerns over rising current account deficit . What would be your advice to policy makers?
I would make the currency convertible, open up trade and investments, so that people can freely buy and sell in the markets, whether it's in the stock market, bond market or commodity market. I would cut the deficit and the government spending in India. I would start paying debt. I would revive agriculture. The government has absurd restrictions in agriculture. India has been, and should be, one of the great agriculture nations of the world. It has land, soil, water everything, if you see the population, there are very smart Indians. There are enormous regulations in the country. Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again, so that India can be a great nation again.
Raj=罗杰斯 ? 哈哈
不知道你在说啥
http://articles.economictimes.in ... y-prices-jim-rogers
Govt measures are hopeless, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers
Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers says the measures taken by the Indian government and the Reserve Bank recently to improve the macro-economic sentiment and arrest the fall of rupee have not yielded any results and have instead made the situation worse.
Singapore-based Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests Inc, says the government just doesn't understand economics. "Debt is rising and the balance of trade is going higher. The government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem," he said in an interview to ET. Edited excerpts:
The government and the Reserve Bank have announced a slew of reforms and policies this year to revive economic growth. What is your view on these measures?
I have been shorting India due to many reasons. The currency is in a mess, the country has very high debt, and debt-to-GDP ratio is going up every year. I am very concerned about the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit situation. The measures taken by the government are hopeless, they are making things worse. The measures for exchange control are bad and the restrictions on gold are making things worse.
How ferocious is the current bear market?
India currently has serious problems, and I am not optimistic about India. India is a very exciting country to visit, but as far as stock markets is concerned, I am not hopeful.
The rupee touched a new low of 63 on Monday. Do you think it can test 65 levels?
I am short on India because of the currency, and one of the reasons why I am making money is because the currency has gone down. I don't know what's going to happen to the world or to the Indian government. But I am judging Indian markets every day, every week, every month. So far, the government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem. Debt is going higher and the balance of trade is going higher as well. The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics.
Your prophecies on commodities have always been true. Which are the commodities you are currently betting on?
I always like things when things are depressed. I would look at sugar as an opportunity, as it is down 75% from its all-time high. I own gold and silver but at the moment I am not buying gold or silver. I think there would be a chance to buy gold or silver sometime next year. India is the largest buyer of gold, and when the largest buyer of gold stops purchasing from global markets, there will be a change in the demand-supply scenario.
India seems to have lost the opportunity to benefit from falling commodity prices and now with currency depreciation, commodity prices have become expensive. Where have we gone wrong in our policies?
The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India. If commodity prices go down, it will not help because the currency is going down. The government should realise that India has made mistakes, and it should start correcting those mistakes. The necessary actions may be painful for a while, but if you delay things, one has to pay a price. There are reports that the US 1Federal Reserve may start winding up its stimulus programme sometime soon. How negative is the sentiment among investors globally?
I am worried about the global economy because this is all artificial money. Things are looking better because the world is printing money. All the major central banks including the US, Japan, UK are printing money. This is all artificial, and this is going to end badly, when it does. Nobody so far had success by printing money.
There are fears of a sovereign downgrade for India...
I don't pay any attention to rating agencies as they do not make money for you, so why should you pay attention to them? If they file any downgrades, then you may find bottoms in markets, may be that would be a time to buy again.
We have serious problems on the currency front and there are concerns over rising current account deficit . What would be your advice to policy makers?
I would make the currency convertible, open up trade and investments, so that people can freely buy and sell in the markets, whether it's in the stock market, bond market or commodity market. I would cut the deficit and the government spending in India. I would start paying debt. I would revive agriculture. The government has absurd restrictions in agriculture. India has been, and should be, one of the great agriculture nations of the world. It has land, soil, water everything, if you see the population, there are very smart Indians. There are enormous regulations in the country. Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again, so that India can be a great nation again.
印度这种奇葩的国家迟早会完蛋
不对啊
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
别太迷信这些美国佬，没有利益驱使他们也是乱扯蛋，有利益驱使就更是乱扯蛋了。
cf海丝带 发表于 2013-8-22 09:52
不对啊
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
印度有2000多亿美元的外汇储备，还是可以吃个小饱的
不对啊
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
印度有2000多亿美元的外汇储备，还是可以吃个小饱的
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
咱们是不是应该趁火打劫下印度。
联手弄死印度，看它老恶心人。
咱们是不是应该趁火打劫下印度。
联手弄死印度，看它老恶心人。
支持狙击印度
likexin 发表于 2013-8-22 09:19
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
政治家追求政治正确，投机商追求商业利润。
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
政治家追求政治正确，投机商追求商业利润。
likexin 发表于 2013-8-22 09:19
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
不让你到下并不意味着不剪你羊毛 一个更加依赖西方资本的印度更可爱
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
不让你到下并不意味着不剪你羊毛 一个更加依赖西方资本的印度更可爱
美国的后院，全是负债率高得惊人的国家，每年需要偿还外债超过国库收入的不少
看好TG，贬低三锅。不会是来忽悠TG的吧？
三哥没啥好失去的了
lmxhdl 发表于 2013-8-22 15:15
看好TG，贬低三锅。不会是来忽悠TG的吧？
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰愤而还以老拳
看好TG，贬低三锅。不会是来忽悠TG的吧？
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰愤而还以老拳
翎羽 发表于 2013-8-22 15:52
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰 ...
不是车上，是下车后被某个三哥摸了下屁股
然后老罗出离的愤怒了
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰 ...
不是车上，是下车后被某个三哥摸了下屁股
然后老罗出离的愤怒了翎羽 发表于 2013-8-22 15:52
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰 ...
呵呵，还有这种事啊,他老婆居然没有被轮X?
罗杰斯的态度20年如一日
当然他和印度有点私人恩怨，他带他老婆到印度旅游，他老婆在车上被印度人骚扰 ...
呵呵，还有这种事啊,他老婆居然没有被轮X?
不要幸灾乐祸，东方说的水淹南方，印度是关键节点。
hanizhuang 发表于 2013-8-22 16:06
不是车上，是下车后被某个三哥摸了下屁股然后老罗出离的愤怒了
话说他老婆漂亮吗?
漂亮的话,到中国来,我有机会也去摸以下哈
不是车上，是下车后被某个三哥摸了下屁股然后老罗出离的愤怒了
话说他老婆漂亮吗?
漂亮的话,到中国来,我有机会也去摸以下哈
kkdidi 发表于 2013-8-22 16:25
话说他老婆漂亮吗?
漂亮的话,到中国来,我有机会也去摸以下哈
那个时候还是未婚妻，长得还行。老罗带着她开了辆车到处跑，天朝也去了。唯独三哥最奇葩，真不拿别人当外人
kkdidi 发表于 2013-8-22 16:25
话说他老婆漂亮吗?
漂亮的话,到中国来,我有机会也去摸以下哈
那个时候还是未婚妻，长得还行。老罗带着她开了辆车到处跑，天朝也去了。唯独三哥最奇葩，真不拿别人当外人
likexin 发表于 2013-8-22 09:19
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
当然，留着以后可以继续剪羊毛。
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
当然，留着以后可以继续剪羊毛。
hanizhuang 发表于 2013-8-22 16:32
那个时候还是未婚妻，长得还行。老罗带着她开了辆车到处跑，天朝也去了。唯独三哥最奇葩，真不拿别人当 ...
主要是印度把女人视为次等人，哪怕是国外来的白人高种姓
那个时候还是未婚妻，长得还行。老罗带着她开了辆车到处跑，天朝也去了。唯独三哥最奇葩，真不拿别人当 ...
主要是印度把女人视为次等人，哪怕是国外来的白人高种姓
不是车上，是下车后被某个三哥摸了下屁股然后老罗出离的愤怒了
没被强奸就不错了。
没被强奸就不错了。
作为发展中国家，经济没有管制是很难应对老牌资本主义国家剪羊毛的。
翎羽 发表于 2013-8-22 14:58
美国的后院，全是负债率高得惊人的国家，每年需要偿还外债超过国库收入的不少
一百多年前，后院国们就是靠向英法德举债度日，年年需要偿还巨额利息，经济产业都被列强用这种手段控制了，现在债主换成鹰酱了而已，兔子早晚也会插一脚的
美国的后院，全是负债率高得惊人的国家，每年需要偿还外债超过国库收入的不少
一百多年前，后院国们就是靠向英法德举债度日，年年需要偿还巨额利息，经济产业都被列强用这种手段控制了，现在债主换成鹰酱了而已，兔子早晚也会插一脚的
翎羽 发表于 2013-8-22 14:58
美国的后院，全是负债率高得惊人的国家，每年需要偿还外债超过国库收入的不少
兔子也该找几个这样的国家来支撑我们的国库
东南亚，非洲，南亚很多国家都不错
欠100块，到时候减免30元，他们还感恩戴德
美国的后院，全是负债率高得惊人的国家，每年需要偿还外债超过国库收入的不少
兔子也该找几个这样的国家来支撑我们的国库
东南亚，非洲，南亚很多国家都不错
欠100块，到时候减免30元，他们还感恩戴德
没被强奸就不错了。
强改成轮更准确。。。
强改成轮更准确。。。
不对啊
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
军兔自586开始就在西南修建军事设施了。。。
吃印度也吃不饱啊
肯定是想引起印度国内混乱，继而引爆整个南方经济体
军兔自586开始就在西南修建军事设施了。。。
这家伙女儿中文水平和中国人差不多
土地革命001 发表于 2013-8-22 09:41
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
他一直也看好中国，他女儿出生就学中文的。
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
他一直也看好中国，他女儿出生就学中文的。
他一直也看好中国，他女儿出生就学中文的。
倒，清醒的美国人不是好的美国人。谁收了他吧。
倒，清醒的美国人不是好的美国人。谁收了他吧。
李楠01 发表于 2013-8-22 23:37
倒，清醒的美国人不是好的美国人。谁收了他吧。
哈哈，他两个女儿，都会中文。不过年纪都太小了我想收也等不了啦
倒，清醒的美国人不是好的美国人。谁收了他吧。
哈哈，他两个女儿，都会中文。不过年纪都太小了我想收也等不了啦
三哥确实危险了
能不能先把兔子家的货币先贬值一下。。。。呼吁被狙击啊。。。。要求和三锅同等待遇
土地革命001 发表于 2013-8-22 09:41
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
中国过去实习固定汇率制 现在尽管间歇性升值其实质仍是固定汇率一样的 所以西方不可能从金融上控制中国 但中国房地产泡沫巨大 银行坏帐如山 地方政府欠下十余万亿债务 如果有一天经济垮了 那是出在内部的问题
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
中国过去实习固定汇率制 现在尽管间歇性升值其实质仍是固定汇率一样的 所以西方不可能从金融上控制中国 但中国房地产泡沫巨大 银行坏帐如山 地方政府欠下十余万亿债务 如果有一天经济垮了 那是出在内部的问题
有本事狙击中国啊，外贸人都快活不下去了，赶紧降汇率吧。
汇率降了，外资逃跑了，和印度一样？
汇率降了，外资逃跑了，和印度一样？
出于政治正确西方国家不可能让印度倒下的！世界上最大的明珠国家，唯一可以和中国发展抗衡的明珠的经济典范 ...
你那是政治，西方的金融家可不这么想，只要有足够的利益什么都是狗屁。包括意识形态。
你那是政治，西方的金融家可不这么想，只要有足够的利益什么都是狗屁。包括意识形态。