超级军网乌兹别克斯坦退出独联体集体条约组织，新鲜出炉的译文
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/28 16:16:15
Uzbekistan quits Russia-dominated security pact
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
The Associated Press
Ivan Sekretarev
In this April 20, 2012 file photo, Uzbek President Islam Karimov takes part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of Unknown Soldier during his official visit to Russia, in Moscow. Uzbekistan has suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russia-dominated security pact of seven ex-Soviet nations, the grouping said Thursday.
MOSCOW -- Uzbekistan has suspended its participation in a Russia-dominated security pact of ex-Soviet nations, officials said Thursday, a move that reflected tensions inside the grouping.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization's spokesman, Vladimir Zainetdinov, said Thursday that it received a note from Uzbekistan declaring the suspension of its involvement in the seven-nation alliance. Zainetdinov wouldn't comment on possible motives behind the move, and Uzbek officials couldn't be reached for comment. The grouping also includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Russia has touted the CSTO as an ex-Soviet response to NATO, but the pact has remained amorphous and weakened by differences among its members. The pact members created a joint rapid reaction force that held sporadic maneuvers, but its numbers were small and its mission unclear. Uzbekistan has refrained from contributing its troops to the force in an apparent reluctance to give Russia too much clout.
Uzbekistan left the grouping once before in 1999, but returned in 2006, reflecting its strongman ruler's often unpredictable decisions.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov was the country's Communist Party boss and stayed at its helm after the 1991 Soviet collapse. He has ruled the resource-rich, strategically-placed Central Asian nation of 27 million with an iron fist, tolerating no dissent. International rights groups list Uzbekistan among the world's most corrupt and repressive nations.
Over the past two decades, the 74-year old Karimov has maneuvered between Russia and the West, periodically shifting loyalties.
Karimov allowed the United States to use a major air base for the war in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, but he fell out with the U.S. and other Western nations after violently cracking down on a 2005 uprising in the city of Andijan and moved to boost ties with Moscow. In recent years, Karimov has sought to mend ties with the West while Uzbekistan's relations with Russia have grown colder.
Vladimir Zharikhin, a Moscow-based political expert studying the ex-Soviet nations, told the RIA Novosti news agency that Uzbekistan's decision had been prompted by "Karimov's intention to flirt with the U.S." He added that the Uzbek leader later may again lurch in the opposite direction.
Also under Karimov, Uzbekistan's ties with its Central Asian neighbors often have been strained amid a series of disputes over borders and water-sharing.
In Tajikistan, head of the parliamentary defense committee Amirkul Azimov criticized Uzbekistan's move.
"Uzbekistan's decision doesn't help collective security in the region," he was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti.
Azimov said that the planned withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan would leave a "hornet's nest" threatening Central Asia.
Nikolai Fedoryak, a deputy chief of the defense and security committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, also said that Uzbekistan may regret its decision after U.S. and other forces leave Afghanistan as scheduled by the end of 2014.
"It's regrettable that Uzbekistan made that move without a thorough analysis of its consequences," he told the Interfax news agency.
Posted on Thu, Jun. 28, 2012 12:27 PM
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/0 ... ssia-dominated.html
Uzbekistan quits Russia-dominated security pact
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
The Associated Press
Ivan Sekretarev
In this April 20, 2012 file photo, Uzbek President Islam Karimov takes part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of Unknown Soldier during his official visit to Russia, in Moscow. Uzbekistan has suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russia-dominated security pact of seven ex-Soviet nations, the grouping said Thursday.
MOSCOW -- Uzbekistan has suspended its participation in a Russia-dominated security pact of ex-Soviet nations, officials said Thursday, a move that reflected tensions inside the grouping.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization's spokesman, Vladimir Zainetdinov, said Thursday that it received a note from Uzbekistan declaring the suspension of its involvement in the seven-nation alliance. Zainetdinov wouldn't comment on possible motives behind the move, and Uzbek officials couldn't be reached for comment. The grouping also includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Russia has touted the CSTO as an ex-Soviet response to NATO, but the pact has remained amorphous and weakened by differences among its members. The pact members created a joint rapid reaction force that held sporadic maneuvers, but its numbers were small and its mission unclear. Uzbekistan has refrained from contributing its troops to the force in an apparent reluctance to give Russia too much clout.
Uzbekistan left the grouping once before in 1999, but returned in 2006, reflecting its strongman ruler's often unpredictable decisions.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov was the country's Communist Party boss and stayed at its helm after the 1991 Soviet collapse. He has ruled the resource-rich, strategically-placed Central Asian nation of 27 million with an iron fist, tolerating no dissent. International rights groups list Uzbekistan among the world's most corrupt and repressive nations.
Over the past two decades, the 74-year old Karimov has maneuvered between Russia and the West, periodically shifting loyalties.
Karimov allowed the United States to use a major air base for the war in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, but he fell out with the U.S. and other Western nations after violently cracking down on a 2005 uprising in the city of Andijan and moved to boost ties with Moscow. In recent years, Karimov has sought to mend ties with the West while Uzbekistan's relations with Russia have grown colder.
Vladimir Zharikhin, a Moscow-based political expert studying the ex-Soviet nations, told the RIA Novosti news agency that Uzbekistan's decision had been prompted by "Karimov's intention to flirt with the U.S." He added that the Uzbek leader later may again lurch in the opposite direction.
Also under Karimov, Uzbekistan's ties with its Central Asian neighbors often have been strained amid a series of disputes over borders and water-sharing.
In Tajikistan, head of the parliamentary defense committee Amirkul Azimov criticized Uzbekistan's move.
"Uzbekistan's decision doesn't help collective security in the region," he was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti.
Azimov said that the planned withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan would leave a "hornet's nest" threatening Central Asia.
Nikolai Fedoryak, a deputy chief of the defense and security committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, also said that Uzbekistan may regret its decision after U.S. and other forces leave Afghanistan as scheduled by the end of 2014.
"It's regrettable that Uzbekistan made that move without a thorough analysis of its consequences," he told the Interfax news agency.
Posted on Thu, Jun. 28, 2012 12:27 PM
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/0 ... ssia-dominated.html
◆乌兹别克斯坦退出俄主导的独联体集体安全条约组织
2012年6月28 日 12:27 来源：美联社
“乌兹别克斯坦已退出独联体集体安全条约组织，该组织周四发表消息说。这一组织以俄罗斯为主导，成员包括7个前苏联国家。
“乌兹别克斯坦退出以俄罗斯为主导的、包括7个前苏联国家的独联体集体安全条约组织，”周四官员声称，“乌方的这一举动显示了这一组织内部各方的紧张关系”。
独联体集体安全条约组织新闻发言人Vladimir Zainetdinov周四称，该组织收到来自乌兹别克斯坦的通知，通知说乌方退出这一七国联盟组织。Zainetdinov没有就乌方这一举动的动机发表评论，乌方官员也没有就此事发表看法。乌方退出后，独联体集体安全条约组织成员国包括：俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦。
俄罗斯自诩主要成员为前苏联国家的独联体集体安全条约组织可以与北约抗衡，但是该组织一直以来由于成员国之间的分歧而涣散乏力。该组织成员国曾组建了一支联合快速行动部队，还举行了一些小的演习。但是该部队力量弱小，而且任务也不明确。乌兹别克斯坦限制本国加入该部队的人数，很明显是不愿让俄罗斯有太大的影响力。
乌兹别克斯坦1999年曾退出独联体集体安全条约组织，但于2006年重返该组织。这种反复显示出其独裁统治者决策的不确定性。
乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫原为本国共产党领袖，1991年苏联解体后一直统治国家。他一直以来以铁腕手段统治着这个资源丰富、战略位置重要、拥有2700万人口的中亚国家，而且不容忍异见分子。国际人权组织把乌兹别克斯坦列入世界上最腐败、最压迫人权的国家之一。
过去20年间，74岁的乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫一直游移于俄罗斯和西方国家之间。某段时间会忠于俄罗斯，过段时间可能会交好于西方国家。
2011年“9.11”恐怖袭击之后，美国对阿富汗发动战争，卡里莫夫允许美国使用本国的一处重要空军基地。但是2005年安集延市爆发骚乱后，乌兹别克斯坦和美国及其他西方国家关系破裂，转而积极发展与莫斯科的关系。然而，近几年，卡里莫夫努力修复与西方国家的关系，与俄罗斯的关系反而转冷。
俄罗斯研究前苏联国家的政治专家Vladimir Zharikhin告诉俄新社，“卡里莫夫与美国交好的意图左右着乌兹别克斯坦的政府决策。”他补充道，“乌兹别克斯坦的领导人将来可能重新与俄罗斯修好。”
在卡里莫夫的统治之下，乌兹别克斯坦与中亚邻国的关系经常由于边界和水资源纠纷而陷入紧张。
在塔吉克斯坦，议会国防委员会主席Amirkul Azimov，就乌兹别克斯坦退出独联体集体安全条约组织的动机提出批评。
俄新社援引他的话说：“乌兹别克斯坦的决定无助于独联体集体安全条约组织在该地区的发展。”
Azimov说：“北约部队计划从阿富汗撤军，将会留下一片‘安全真空’，威胁中亚利益。”
俄罗斯议会上院国防与安全委员会副主席Nikolai Fedoryak也说道：“2014年底，美国和其他国家军队按预定计划撤出阿富汗后，乌兹别克斯坦将后悔现在做的决定。”
“乌兹别克斯坦将因为没有透彻地分析和认识退出独联体集体安全条约组织的后果而感到后悔，”他对国际文传电讯社说道。.
2012年6月28 日 12:27 来源：美联社
“乌兹别克斯坦已退出独联体集体安全条约组织，该组织周四发表消息说。这一组织以俄罗斯为主导，成员包括7个前苏联国家。
“乌兹别克斯坦退出以俄罗斯为主导的、包括7个前苏联国家的独联体集体安全条约组织，”周四官员声称，“乌方的这一举动显示了这一组织内部各方的紧张关系”。
独联体集体安全条约组织新闻发言人Vladimir Zainetdinov周四称，该组织收到来自乌兹别克斯坦的通知，通知说乌方退出这一七国联盟组织。Zainetdinov没有就乌方这一举动的动机发表评论，乌方官员也没有就此事发表看法。乌方退出后，独联体集体安全条约组织成员国包括：俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦。
俄罗斯自诩主要成员为前苏联国家的独联体集体安全条约组织可以与北约抗衡，但是该组织一直以来由于成员国之间的分歧而涣散乏力。该组织成员国曾组建了一支联合快速行动部队，还举行了一些小的演习。但是该部队力量弱小，而且任务也不明确。乌兹别克斯坦限制本国加入该部队的人数，很明显是不愿让俄罗斯有太大的影响力。
乌兹别克斯坦1999年曾退出独联体集体安全条约组织，但于2006年重返该组织。这种反复显示出其独裁统治者决策的不确定性。
乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫原为本国共产党领袖，1991年苏联解体后一直统治国家。他一直以来以铁腕手段统治着这个资源丰富、战略位置重要、拥有2700万人口的中亚国家，而且不容忍异见分子。国际人权组织把乌兹别克斯坦列入世界上最腐败、最压迫人权的国家之一。
过去20年间，74岁的乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫一直游移于俄罗斯和西方国家之间。某段时间会忠于俄罗斯，过段时间可能会交好于西方国家。
2011年“9.11”恐怖袭击之后，美国对阿富汗发动战争，卡里莫夫允许美国使用本国的一处重要空军基地。但是2005年安集延市爆发骚乱后，乌兹别克斯坦和美国及其他西方国家关系破裂，转而积极发展与莫斯科的关系。然而，近几年，卡里莫夫努力修复与西方国家的关系，与俄罗斯的关系反而转冷。
俄罗斯研究前苏联国家的政治专家Vladimir Zharikhin告诉俄新社，“卡里莫夫与美国交好的意图左右着乌兹别克斯坦的政府决策。”他补充道，“乌兹别克斯坦的领导人将来可能重新与俄罗斯修好。”
在卡里莫夫的统治之下，乌兹别克斯坦与中亚邻国的关系经常由于边界和水资源纠纷而陷入紧张。
在塔吉克斯坦，议会国防委员会主席Amirkul Azimov，就乌兹别克斯坦退出独联体集体安全条约组织的动机提出批评。
俄新社援引他的话说：“乌兹别克斯坦的决定无助于独联体集体安全条约组织在该地区的发展。”
Azimov说：“北约部队计划从阿富汗撤军，将会留下一片‘安全真空’，威胁中亚利益。”
俄罗斯议会上院国防与安全委员会副主席Nikolai Fedoryak也说道：“2014年底，美国和其他国家军队按预定计划撤出阿富汗后，乌兹别克斯坦将后悔现在做的决定。”
“乌兹别克斯坦将因为没有透彻地分析和认识退出独联体集体安全条约组织的后果而感到后悔，”他对国际文传电讯社说道。.
译文需审核。。。稍待。。。
译文在哪里？不要告诉我是英文译文……
好吧，刷新一下出来2楼了……期待一下。
好吧，刷新一下出来2楼了……期待一下。
Uzbekistan's Revolving Foreign Policy
Wednesday, 4 July 2012
Uzbekistan’s decision to renounce its membership of a post-Soviet regional security pact was not the first policy switch of its kind, and reflects an underlying approach based on temporary rather than long-term gain, a leading analyst in Moscow says.
The Uzbek government suspended its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, back in 1999, saying the grouping was not proving effective. It reactivated its role in 2006, as part of a switch back to Moscow after Tashkent faced western criticism for the shooting of hundreds of people in Andijan the previous year.
In a letter to the CSTO in June, it announced it was leaving again.
NBCentralAsia asked Andrei Grozin, head of the Central Asia department at the Institute for Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, to explain this latest move and what it says about Tashkent’s attitude towards Moscow .
NBCentralAsia: Does Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the CSTO reflect a desire to distance itself from Russia’s growing influence?
Andrei Grozin: Tashkent has always exhibited this caution [about Russia]. But in this instance, that isn’t the main thing. After all, these considerations didn’t stop Tashkent signing a strategic partnership with Russia right after Andijan [2005]. So I think it’s less about the Russian factor than that this is standard practice for Uzbekistan.
Its foreign policy changes pretty dramatically every two or three years, on average. When [President Islam] Karimov swore eternal friendship with Moscow after Andijan, it was clear this was only temporary. In the same way, he had earlier told GUUAM members [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova; Uzbekistan left in 2005] he was dedicated to building democracy and pursuing pro-western policies. These are situational moves which Tashkent makes to gain temporary advantage.
It is fairly easy to explain these zig-zags in foreign policy. Everything in that country, including foreign policy, depends entirely on one man, his mood, his state of health, and his view of matters. In that respect, Uzbekistan resembles Turkmenistan. The other Central Asian states don’t have democratic regimes, either, but foreign policymaking is nevertheless less dependent on one individual in Kazakstan, in Tajikistan and certainly in Kyrgyzstan.
NBCentralAsia: There’s currently talk of a new American base in Uzbekistan, and some analysts see the withdrawal from the CSTO as being connected with the Afghan situation. Do you agree?
Grozin: Because of its geopolitical position, Uzbekistan is clearly counting on being the key transit route out of Afghanistan this year and in 2013-14. It’s an immensely costly operation for the western coalition to withdraw all its troops and equipment.
Uzbekistan wants to free itself of the restrictions imposed by CSTO membership on hosting foreign facilities, whether those are described as military bases or logistical hubs. This decision [leaving the CSTO] places Tashkent in a far better position than other Central Asian states. It can continue developing bilateral cooperation with Moscow, which it’s always done irrespective of CSTO membership, but at the same time it won’t be under any constraints when it comes to establishing whatever transport hubs or bases it sees as necessary and advantageous. That will bring it financial benefits and also political support from Washington and Brussels.
The pendulum has now swung towards the West, just as it swung towards Russia after Andijan. But if things change, for example if the situation deteriorates after western forces leave Afghanistan, Karimov will find it possible to make another volte face. I wouldn’t be surprised if, having extracted the benefits from partnership with the West, he rejoins the CSTO again because of security concerns.
NBCentralAsia: Did Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the CSTO come as a surprise?
Grozin: After Tashkent suspended its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union last year, there was a lot of talk about it leaving the CSTO as well. Everyone was expecting it. That explains Moscow’s fairly calm reaction.
Whatever the zig-zags and turnarounds in its foreign policy, Uzbekistan is ultimately a sovereign state which can decide for itself what organisations it should be part of. Nor can Russia reproach it for trying to extract money from the western coalition, since it is trying to do pretty much the same thing itself.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/new ... foreign-policy.html
◆乌兹别克斯坦转变外交政策
2012年7月4日
莫斯科一名首席分析师说，乌兹别克斯坦决定退出后苏联地区安全条约（独联体集体安全条约）并不是该国第一次政策转变，反映了其潜在的制定政策的方针是只顾眼前利益不顾长远利益。
1999年，乌兹别克斯坦政府曾经暂停了其在集体安全条约组织（CSTO）的成员国资格，认为该组织没有实际作用。2006年，乌兹别克斯坦由于在之前的安集延事件中杀害数百人而受到西方的批评，因此重新恢复了在该组织的资格。
今年7月， 在致集体安全条约组织的一封信中，乌兹别克斯坦再次提出退出该组织。
NBCentralAsia采访独联体国家研究机构中亚部门的负责人安德列•格朗新，请他说明最近的退出事件和乌兹别克斯坦对莫斯科的态度。
NBCentralAsia：乌兹别克斯坦从独联体集体安全条约组织中退出是否表示其渴望远离俄罗斯的影响？
安德列•格朗新：乌兹别克斯坦一直谨小慎微（面对俄罗斯）。但在这种情况下，这不是主要问题。毕竟这些没有阻止乌兹别克斯坦在安集延（2005年）事件后马上同俄罗斯签订战略伙伴协议。所以，我认为俄罗斯不是主要因素，更重要的是这是乌兹别克斯坦的标准做法。
该国外交政策平均两到三年就会进行戏剧性转变。当（信奉伊斯兰的总统）卡里莫夫在安集延事件后发誓誓死与莫斯科友好时，很明显只是暂时的。同样，早些时候他还告诉吉阿姆集团成员（格鲁吉亚、乌克兰、阿塞拜疆和摩尔多瓦，乌兹别克斯坦于2005年退出）乌兹别克斯坦决定进行民主建设，推行亲西方的政策。乌兹别克斯坦的这些做法只能获得短时利益。
这些摇摆不定的外交政策很好解释。该国的所有事情，包括外交政策都依据一个人，包括他的心情，健康状况，以及对事件的观点来确定。在这方面，乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦很像。其他的中亚国家也没有民主政权，但在哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦，外交政策制定不会由一个人决定。
NBCentralAsia：目前，大家在讨论乌兹别克斯坦在建立新的美军基地，有些分析人士认为乌兹别克斯坦从集体安全条约组织退出和阿富汗局势有关。您同意吗？
安德列•格朗新：由于地理位置和政治原因，显然乌兹别克斯坦在今年及2013-14年会成为美军从阿富汗撤出的重要通道。西方阵营撤出所有的部队和装备是一个花费极大的工程。
乌兹别克斯坦希望摆脱集体安全条约组织对其成员国关于国外入驻设施的限制，无论是军事基地还是后勤中心。这一决定（退出集体安全条约组织）使乌兹别克斯坦比其他中亚国家拥有更好的条件。乌兹别克斯坦可以一如既往的不以集体安全条约组织成员国身份同莫斯科继续发展双边关系，同时又可以不受任何约束，建设必要且有利的运输中心或基地。这可以带来经济利益，同时又可以获得华盛顿和布鲁塞尔（比利时首都 欧盟总部所在地）的支持。
该国外交政策目前摆向西方，正如安集延事件后摆向俄罗斯一样。如果事态发生变化，例如西方武装撤离阿富汗后情况恶化，卡里莫夫将会有转头的可能性。如果他从和西方交好捞到好处后，出于安全考虑重新加入集体安全条约组织，也不足为奇。
NBCentralAsia：乌兹别克斯坦退出集体安全条约组织让人感到惊奇吗？
安德列•格朗新：乌兹别克斯坦暂停其在欧亚经济联盟的成员国资格之后，大家对其退出集体安全条约组织议论纷纷。这是所有人意料之中的，难怪莫斯科对此反应非常镇静。
无论外交政策怎样摇摆和转变，乌兹别克斯坦根本上是一个主权国家，可以自由决定加入哪个组织。俄罗斯不可以对乌兹别克斯坦从西方阵营获利加以斥责，因为俄罗斯也做着同样的事情。
Wednesday, 4 July 2012
Uzbekistan’s decision to renounce its membership of a post-Soviet regional security pact was not the first policy switch of its kind, and reflects an underlying approach based on temporary rather than long-term gain, a leading analyst in Moscow says.
The Uzbek government suspended its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, back in 1999, saying the grouping was not proving effective. It reactivated its role in 2006, as part of a switch back to Moscow after Tashkent faced western criticism for the shooting of hundreds of people in Andijan the previous year.
In a letter to the CSTO in June, it announced it was leaving again.
NBCentralAsia asked Andrei Grozin, head of the Central Asia department at the Institute for Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, to explain this latest move and what it says about Tashkent’s attitude towards Moscow .
NBCentralAsia: Does Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the CSTO reflect a desire to distance itself from Russia’s growing influence?
Andrei Grozin: Tashkent has always exhibited this caution [about Russia]. But in this instance, that isn’t the main thing. After all, these considerations didn’t stop Tashkent signing a strategic partnership with Russia right after Andijan [2005]. So I think it’s less about the Russian factor than that this is standard practice for Uzbekistan.
Its foreign policy changes pretty dramatically every two or three years, on average. When [President Islam] Karimov swore eternal friendship with Moscow after Andijan, it was clear this was only temporary. In the same way, he had earlier told GUUAM members [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova; Uzbekistan left in 2005] he was dedicated to building democracy and pursuing pro-western policies. These are situational moves which Tashkent makes to gain temporary advantage.
It is fairly easy to explain these zig-zags in foreign policy. Everything in that country, including foreign policy, depends entirely on one man, his mood, his state of health, and his view of matters. In that respect, Uzbekistan resembles Turkmenistan. The other Central Asian states don’t have democratic regimes, either, but foreign policymaking is nevertheless less dependent on one individual in Kazakstan, in Tajikistan and certainly in Kyrgyzstan.
NBCentralAsia: There’s currently talk of a new American base in Uzbekistan, and some analysts see the withdrawal from the CSTO as being connected with the Afghan situation. Do you agree?
Grozin: Because of its geopolitical position, Uzbekistan is clearly counting on being the key transit route out of Afghanistan this year and in 2013-14. It’s an immensely costly operation for the western coalition to withdraw all its troops and equipment.
Uzbekistan wants to free itself of the restrictions imposed by CSTO membership on hosting foreign facilities, whether those are described as military bases or logistical hubs. This decision [leaving the CSTO] places Tashkent in a far better position than other Central Asian states. It can continue developing bilateral cooperation with Moscow, which it’s always done irrespective of CSTO membership, but at the same time it won’t be under any constraints when it comes to establishing whatever transport hubs or bases it sees as necessary and advantageous. That will bring it financial benefits and also political support from Washington and Brussels.
The pendulum has now swung towards the West, just as it swung towards Russia after Andijan. But if things change, for example if the situation deteriorates after western forces leave Afghanistan, Karimov will find it possible to make another volte face. I wouldn’t be surprised if, having extracted the benefits from partnership with the West, he rejoins the CSTO again because of security concerns.
NBCentralAsia: Did Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the CSTO come as a surprise?
Grozin: After Tashkent suspended its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union last year, there was a lot of talk about it leaving the CSTO as well. Everyone was expecting it. That explains Moscow’s fairly calm reaction.
Whatever the zig-zags and turnarounds in its foreign policy, Uzbekistan is ultimately a sovereign state which can decide for itself what organisations it should be part of. Nor can Russia reproach it for trying to extract money from the western coalition, since it is trying to do pretty much the same thing itself.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/new ... foreign-policy.html
◆乌兹别克斯坦转变外交政策
2012年7月4日
莫斯科一名首席分析师说，乌兹别克斯坦决定退出后苏联地区安全条约（独联体集体安全条约）并不是该国第一次政策转变，反映了其潜在的制定政策的方针是只顾眼前利益不顾长远利益。
1999年，乌兹别克斯坦政府曾经暂停了其在集体安全条约组织（CSTO）的成员国资格，认为该组织没有实际作用。2006年，乌兹别克斯坦由于在之前的安集延事件中杀害数百人而受到西方的批评，因此重新恢复了在该组织的资格。
今年7月， 在致集体安全条约组织的一封信中，乌兹别克斯坦再次提出退出该组织。
NBCentralAsia采访独联体国家研究机构中亚部门的负责人安德列•格朗新，请他说明最近的退出事件和乌兹别克斯坦对莫斯科的态度。
NBCentralAsia：乌兹别克斯坦从独联体集体安全条约组织中退出是否表示其渴望远离俄罗斯的影响？
安德列•格朗新：乌兹别克斯坦一直谨小慎微（面对俄罗斯）。但在这种情况下，这不是主要问题。毕竟这些没有阻止乌兹别克斯坦在安集延（2005年）事件后马上同俄罗斯签订战略伙伴协议。所以，我认为俄罗斯不是主要因素，更重要的是这是乌兹别克斯坦的标准做法。
该国外交政策平均两到三年就会进行戏剧性转变。当（信奉伊斯兰的总统）卡里莫夫在安集延事件后发誓誓死与莫斯科友好时，很明显只是暂时的。同样，早些时候他还告诉吉阿姆集团成员（格鲁吉亚、乌克兰、阿塞拜疆和摩尔多瓦，乌兹别克斯坦于2005年退出）乌兹别克斯坦决定进行民主建设，推行亲西方的政策。乌兹别克斯坦的这些做法只能获得短时利益。
这些摇摆不定的外交政策很好解释。该国的所有事情，包括外交政策都依据一个人，包括他的心情，健康状况，以及对事件的观点来确定。在这方面，乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦很像。其他的中亚国家也没有民主政权，但在哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦，外交政策制定不会由一个人决定。
NBCentralAsia：目前，大家在讨论乌兹别克斯坦在建立新的美军基地，有些分析人士认为乌兹别克斯坦从集体安全条约组织退出和阿富汗局势有关。您同意吗？
安德列•格朗新：由于地理位置和政治原因，显然乌兹别克斯坦在今年及2013-14年会成为美军从阿富汗撤出的重要通道。西方阵营撤出所有的部队和装备是一个花费极大的工程。
乌兹别克斯坦希望摆脱集体安全条约组织对其成员国关于国外入驻设施的限制，无论是军事基地还是后勤中心。这一决定（退出集体安全条约组织）使乌兹别克斯坦比其他中亚国家拥有更好的条件。乌兹别克斯坦可以一如既往的不以集体安全条约组织成员国身份同莫斯科继续发展双边关系，同时又可以不受任何约束，建设必要且有利的运输中心或基地。这可以带来经济利益，同时又可以获得华盛顿和布鲁塞尔（比利时首都 欧盟总部所在地）的支持。
该国外交政策目前摆向西方，正如安集延事件后摆向俄罗斯一样。如果事态发生变化，例如西方武装撤离阿富汗后情况恶化，卡里莫夫将会有转头的可能性。如果他从和西方交好捞到好处后，出于安全考虑重新加入集体安全条约组织，也不足为奇。
NBCentralAsia：乌兹别克斯坦退出集体安全条约组织让人感到惊奇吗？
安德列•格朗新：乌兹别克斯坦暂停其在欧亚经济联盟的成员国资格之后，大家对其退出集体安全条约组织议论纷纷。这是所有人意料之中的，难怪莫斯科对此反应非常镇静。
无论外交政策怎样摇摆和转变，乌兹别克斯坦根本上是一个主权国家，可以自由决定加入哪个组织。俄罗斯不可以对乌兹别克斯坦从西方阵营获利加以斥责，因为俄罗斯也做着同样的事情。
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