超级军网[转帖]俄罗斯远东石油的新变数。
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/17 07:43:29
<P>http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FJ01Ad03.html</P>
<P>转自亚洲时报。太长没办法全部翻译。</P>
<P>Don't dismiss China's Daqing oil pipeline
By Mark N Katz
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.</B></I> </P>
<P>It appears that Japan has beaten China in the competition over which Siberian oil export pipeline Russia will build. Instead of the shorter route to Daqing in China favored by Beijing, Moscow seems poised to announce its approval for the longer route to Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast favored by Tokyo. Several recent conversations I had with knowledgeable Russian and Western sources in Moscow, though, suggest that the Daqing route may yet be the pipeline that gets built.
It was the now beleaguered Russian oil company, Yukos, that had originally proposed to sell its Siberian oil to China via a pipeline to Daqing in China's north. Although Japan had offered financial incentives for the Nakhodka route, Russia's then prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, indicated in April 2003 that the Daqing pipeline would be built. The following month, Yukos signed an agreement to sell oil to China via this pipeline that it expected to complete in 2005. But as the political feud between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkhovsky escalated, the Daqing pipeline looked less and less likely.
On a visit to Beijing in September 2003, Kasyanov informed the Chinese that construction of the Daqing pipeline would be "postponed". Shortly thereafter, Japan offered a beefed-up package for building the Nakhodka route, including US$5 billion for pipeline construction and $2 billion for Siberian oil field development. Since then, press coverage of this issue has indicated that it is the Nakhodka pipeline route that will be built, though Moscow has not yet announced its decision.
The Nakhodka route has the advantage of allowing Russia to sell Siberian oil to a variety of customers, while oil shipped via the Daqing route could only be sold to China, leaving Russia dependent on Beijing alone. And while it is estimated that the Nakhodka pipeline will cost two to four times as much as the Daqing line, Japanese financial support will ease this burden considerably. Finally, the Nakhodka pipeline has the advantage of not being the one proposed by Yukos. Moscow could try to please both China and Japan by building both pipelines, or a spur from the Nakhodka route to Daqing, but proven Siberian oil reserves do not yet appear sufficient to supply both markets.
Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that Moscow may switch back to favoring the Daqing pipeline once again. During a conversation in Moscow in September, a Yukos official argued that the cancelation by the administration of President Vladimir Putin of the Daqing pipeline was done strictly to punish Yokos chief Khodorkhovsky and Yukos. But once the ownership of Yukos' Siberian assets have been transferred to entities the Kremlin approves of, this motive will disappear. And since the Daqing pipeline is much cheaper than the Nakhodka one, it would be more sensible commercially to build the former.
In addition, several Russian and Western sources in Moscow expect that when Moscow and Tokyo are concluding the deal for Japan to fund the construction of the Nakhodka pipeline, Tokyo will not give final approval for the project unless Moscow promises to return the four Kuril Islands that it seized from Japan at the very end of World War II. This is a highly emotional issue for the Japanese; the dispute between Moscow and Tokyo over this issue has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending the state of war between them that has existed since 1945.
From the Japanese viewpoint, a Russian promise to return the Kurils (even if it won't be fulfilled any time soon) might appear a small price for Moscow to pay in return for the generous funding Tokyo would provide that would allow Russia to escape dependence on China as the sole customer for Siberian oil. Observers in Moscow, though, were unanimous in emphatically asserting that Putin would never agree to this. Russian public reaction to Moscow even promising to return the Kurils is likely to be so negative that even a president as powerful as Putin could lose his job by relinquishing them.
If indeed Tokyo attempts to tie Japanese funding of the Nakhodka route to a Russian promise to return the Kurils, then Moscow is highly likely to approve the export of Siberian oil by the new, Kremlin-approved owners of Yukos' fields there via the less-expensive pipeline to Daqing, China. And with any luck, the construction of the Daqing route will lead to more oil discoveries in Siberia sufficient to fill a pipeline to Nakhodka, as well as to greater oil revenues that will allow Moscow to build it without assistance from Tokyo.
<I><B>Mark N Katz </B>is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.</I>
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. </B></I></P>
<P>好像是一个美国“专家的文章”，大致内容是他说，日本的泰纳线还不确定，有几个原因，一是日本想把油管和北方四岛挂勾，而普京是绝对不可能同意的，二是泰纳线费用比安大线长的太多，费用太高，三是，尤克斯公司问题在里面的影响，安大线是尤克斯的项目，现在普京正在对付尤克斯，所以他所有项目都被控制。作者预测如果普京一旦成功逼尤克斯宣布破产然后成功收购尤克斯，将他收归国有后，对中国的项目可信性将会重新安排上日程表。</P>
<P>这和我之前对温总理访俄审慎乐观的分析比较类似，而且泰纳线迟迟不动工似乎也察觉到一点变化。当然，这些只是猜测，我还是觉得泰纳线包括到大庆的支线的方案比较可信。</P>
<P>转自亚洲时报。太长没办法全部翻译。</P>
<P>Don't dismiss China's Daqing oil pipeline
By Mark N Katz
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.</B></I> </P>
<P>It appears that Japan has beaten China in the competition over which Siberian oil export pipeline Russia will build. Instead of the shorter route to Daqing in China favored by Beijing, Moscow seems poised to announce its approval for the longer route to Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast favored by Tokyo. Several recent conversations I had with knowledgeable Russian and Western sources in Moscow, though, suggest that the Daqing route may yet be the pipeline that gets built.
It was the now beleaguered Russian oil company, Yukos, that had originally proposed to sell its Siberian oil to China via a pipeline to Daqing in China's north. Although Japan had offered financial incentives for the Nakhodka route, Russia's then prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, indicated in April 2003 that the Daqing pipeline would be built. The following month, Yukos signed an agreement to sell oil to China via this pipeline that it expected to complete in 2005. But as the political feud between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkhovsky escalated, the Daqing pipeline looked less and less likely.
On a visit to Beijing in September 2003, Kasyanov informed the Chinese that construction of the Daqing pipeline would be "postponed". Shortly thereafter, Japan offered a beefed-up package for building the Nakhodka route, including US$5 billion for pipeline construction and $2 billion for Siberian oil field development. Since then, press coverage of this issue has indicated that it is the Nakhodka pipeline route that will be built, though Moscow has not yet announced its decision.
The Nakhodka route has the advantage of allowing Russia to sell Siberian oil to a variety of customers, while oil shipped via the Daqing route could only be sold to China, leaving Russia dependent on Beijing alone. And while it is estimated that the Nakhodka pipeline will cost two to four times as much as the Daqing line, Japanese financial support will ease this burden considerably. Finally, the Nakhodka pipeline has the advantage of not being the one proposed by Yukos. Moscow could try to please both China and Japan by building both pipelines, or a spur from the Nakhodka route to Daqing, but proven Siberian oil reserves do not yet appear sufficient to supply both markets.
Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that Moscow may switch back to favoring the Daqing pipeline once again. During a conversation in Moscow in September, a Yukos official argued that the cancelation by the administration of President Vladimir Putin of the Daqing pipeline was done strictly to punish Yokos chief Khodorkhovsky and Yukos. But once the ownership of Yukos' Siberian assets have been transferred to entities the Kremlin approves of, this motive will disappear. And since the Daqing pipeline is much cheaper than the Nakhodka one, it would be more sensible commercially to build the former.
In addition, several Russian and Western sources in Moscow expect that when Moscow and Tokyo are concluding the deal for Japan to fund the construction of the Nakhodka pipeline, Tokyo will not give final approval for the project unless Moscow promises to return the four Kuril Islands that it seized from Japan at the very end of World War II. This is a highly emotional issue for the Japanese; the dispute between Moscow and Tokyo over this issue has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending the state of war between them that has existed since 1945.
From the Japanese viewpoint, a Russian promise to return the Kurils (even if it won't be fulfilled any time soon) might appear a small price for Moscow to pay in return for the generous funding Tokyo would provide that would allow Russia to escape dependence on China as the sole customer for Siberian oil. Observers in Moscow, though, were unanimous in emphatically asserting that Putin would never agree to this. Russian public reaction to Moscow even promising to return the Kurils is likely to be so negative that even a president as powerful as Putin could lose his job by relinquishing them.
If indeed Tokyo attempts to tie Japanese funding of the Nakhodka route to a Russian promise to return the Kurils, then Moscow is highly likely to approve the export of Siberian oil by the new, Kremlin-approved owners of Yukos' fields there via the less-expensive pipeline to Daqing, China. And with any luck, the construction of the Daqing route will lead to more oil discoveries in Siberia sufficient to fill a pipeline to Nakhodka, as well as to greater oil revenues that will allow Moscow to build it without assistance from Tokyo.
<I><B>Mark N Katz </B>is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.</I>
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. </B></I></P>
<P>好像是一个美国“专家的文章”，大致内容是他说，日本的泰纳线还不确定，有几个原因，一是日本想把油管和北方四岛挂勾，而普京是绝对不可能同意的，二是泰纳线费用比安大线长的太多，费用太高，三是，尤克斯公司问题在里面的影响，安大线是尤克斯的项目，现在普京正在对付尤克斯，所以他所有项目都被控制。作者预测如果普京一旦成功逼尤克斯宣布破产然后成功收购尤克斯，将他收归国有后，对中国的项目可信性将会重新安排上日程表。</P>
<P>这和我之前对温总理访俄审慎乐观的分析比较类似，而且泰纳线迟迟不动工似乎也察觉到一点变化。当然，这些只是猜测，我还是觉得泰纳线包括到大庆的支线的方案比较可信。</P>
[此贴子已经被作者于2004-10-1 0:46:32编辑过]
<P>转自亚洲时报。太长没办法全部翻译。</P>
<P>Don't dismiss China's Daqing oil pipeline
By Mark N Katz
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.</B></I> </P>
<P>It appears that Japan has beaten China in the competition over which Siberian oil export pipeline Russia will build. Instead of the shorter route to Daqing in China favored by Beijing, Moscow seems poised to announce its approval for the longer route to Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast favored by Tokyo. Several recent conversations I had with knowledgeable Russian and Western sources in Moscow, though, suggest that the Daqing route may yet be the pipeline that gets built.
It was the now beleaguered Russian oil company, Yukos, that had originally proposed to sell its Siberian oil to China via a pipeline to Daqing in China's north. Although Japan had offered financial incentives for the Nakhodka route, Russia's then prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, indicated in April 2003 that the Daqing pipeline would be built. The following month, Yukos signed an agreement to sell oil to China via this pipeline that it expected to complete in 2005. But as the political feud between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkhovsky escalated, the Daqing pipeline looked less and less likely.
On a visit to Beijing in September 2003, Kasyanov informed the Chinese that construction of the Daqing pipeline would be "postponed". Shortly thereafter, Japan offered a beefed-up package for building the Nakhodka route, including US$5 billion for pipeline construction and $2 billion for Siberian oil field development. Since then, press coverage of this issue has indicated that it is the Nakhodka pipeline route that will be built, though Moscow has not yet announced its decision.
The Nakhodka route has the advantage of allowing Russia to sell Siberian oil to a variety of customers, while oil shipped via the Daqing route could only be sold to China, leaving Russia dependent on Beijing alone. And while it is estimated that the Nakhodka pipeline will cost two to four times as much as the Daqing line, Japanese financial support will ease this burden considerably. Finally, the Nakhodka pipeline has the advantage of not being the one proposed by Yukos. Moscow could try to please both China and Japan by building both pipelines, or a spur from the Nakhodka route to Daqing, but proven Siberian oil reserves do not yet appear sufficient to supply both markets.
Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that Moscow may switch back to favoring the Daqing pipeline once again. During a conversation in Moscow in September, a Yukos official argued that the cancelation by the administration of President Vladimir Putin of the Daqing pipeline was done strictly to punish Yokos chief Khodorkhovsky and Yukos. But once the ownership of Yukos' Siberian assets have been transferred to entities the Kremlin approves of, this motive will disappear. And since the Daqing pipeline is much cheaper than the Nakhodka one, it would be more sensible commercially to build the former.
In addition, several Russian and Western sources in Moscow expect that when Moscow and Tokyo are concluding the deal for Japan to fund the construction of the Nakhodka pipeline, Tokyo will not give final approval for the project unless Moscow promises to return the four Kuril Islands that it seized from Japan at the very end of World War II. This is a highly emotional issue for the Japanese; the dispute between Moscow and Tokyo over this issue has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending the state of war between them that has existed since 1945.
From the Japanese viewpoint, a Russian promise to return the Kurils (even if it won't be fulfilled any time soon) might appear a small price for Moscow to pay in return for the generous funding Tokyo would provide that would allow Russia to escape dependence on China as the sole customer for Siberian oil. Observers in Moscow, though, were unanimous in emphatically asserting that Putin would never agree to this. Russian public reaction to Moscow even promising to return the Kurils is likely to be so negative that even a president as powerful as Putin could lose his job by relinquishing them.
If indeed Tokyo attempts to tie Japanese funding of the Nakhodka route to a Russian promise to return the Kurils, then Moscow is highly likely to approve the export of Siberian oil by the new, Kremlin-approved owners of Yukos' fields there via the less-expensive pipeline to Daqing, China. And with any luck, the construction of the Daqing route will lead to more oil discoveries in Siberia sufficient to fill a pipeline to Nakhodka, as well as to greater oil revenues that will allow Moscow to build it without assistance from Tokyo.
<I><B>Mark N Katz </B>is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.</I>
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. </B></I></P>
<P>好像是一个美国“专家的文章”，大致内容是他说，日本的泰纳线还不确定，有几个原因，一是日本想把油管和北方四岛挂勾，而普京是绝对不可能同意的，二是泰纳线费用比安大线长的太多，费用太高，三是，尤克斯公司问题在里面的影响，安大线是尤克斯的项目，现在普京正在对付尤克斯，所以他所有项目都被控制。作者预测如果普京一旦成功逼尤克斯宣布破产然后成功收购尤克斯，将他收归国有后，对中国的项目可信性将会重新安排上日程表。</P>
<P>这和我之前对温总理访俄审慎乐观的分析比较类似，而且泰纳线迟迟不动工似乎也察觉到一点变化。当然，这些只是猜测，我还是觉得泰纳线包括到大庆的支线的方案比较可信。</P>
[此贴子已经被作者于2004-10-1 0:46:32编辑过]
<P>http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FJ01Ad03.html</P><P>转自亚洲时报。太长没办法全部翻译。</P>
<P>Don't dismiss China's Daqing oil pipeline
By Mark N Katz
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.</B></I> </P>
<P>It appears that Japan has beaten China in the competition over which Siberian oil export pipeline Russia will build. Instead of the shorter route to Daqing in China favored by Beijing, Moscow seems poised to announce its approval for the longer route to Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast favored by Tokyo. Several recent conversations I had with knowledgeable Russian and Western sources in Moscow, though, suggest that the Daqing route may yet be the pipeline that gets built.
It was the now beleaguered Russian oil company, Yukos, that had originally proposed to sell its Siberian oil to China via a pipeline to Daqing in China's north. Although Japan had offered financial incentives for the Nakhodka route, Russia's then prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, indicated in April 2003 that the Daqing pipeline would be built. The following month, Yukos signed an agreement to sell oil to China via this pipeline that it expected to complete in 2005. But as the political feud between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkhovsky escalated, the Daqing pipeline looked less and less likely.
On a visit to Beijing in September 2003, Kasyanov informed the Chinese that construction of the Daqing pipeline would be "postponed". Shortly thereafter, Japan offered a beefed-up package for building the Nakhodka route, including US$5 billion for pipeline construction and $2 billion for Siberian oil field development. Since then, press coverage of this issue has indicated that it is the Nakhodka pipeline route that will be built, though Moscow has not yet announced its decision.
The Nakhodka route has the advantage of allowing Russia to sell Siberian oil to a variety of customers, while oil shipped via the Daqing route could only be sold to China, leaving Russia dependent on Beijing alone. And while it is estimated that the Nakhodka pipeline will cost two to four times as much as the Daqing line, Japanese financial support will ease this burden considerably. Finally, the Nakhodka pipeline has the advantage of not being the one proposed by Yukos. Moscow could try to please both China and Japan by building both pipelines, or a spur from the Nakhodka route to Daqing, but proven Siberian oil reserves do not yet appear sufficient to supply both markets.
Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that Moscow may switch back to favoring the Daqing pipeline once again. During a conversation in Moscow in September, a Yukos official argued that the cancelation by the administration of President Vladimir Putin of the Daqing pipeline was done strictly to punish Yokos chief Khodorkhovsky and Yukos. But once the ownership of Yukos' Siberian assets have been transferred to entities the Kremlin approves of, this motive will disappear. And since the Daqing pipeline is much cheaper than the Nakhodka one, it would be more sensible commercially to build the former.
In addition, several Russian and Western sources in Moscow expect that when Moscow and Tokyo are concluding the deal for Japan to fund the construction of the Nakhodka pipeline, Tokyo will not give final approval for the project unless Moscow promises to return the four Kuril Islands that it seized from Japan at the very end of World War II. This is a highly emotional issue for the Japanese; the dispute between Moscow and Tokyo over this issue has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending the state of war between them that has existed since 1945.
From the Japanese viewpoint, a Russian promise to return the Kurils (even if it won't be fulfilled any time soon) might appear a small price for Moscow to pay in return for the generous funding Tokyo would provide that would allow Russia to escape dependence on China as the sole customer for Siberian oil. Observers in Moscow, though, were unanimous in emphatically asserting that Putin would never agree to this. Russian public reaction to Moscow even promising to return the Kurils is likely to be so negative that even a president as powerful as Putin could lose his job by relinquishing them.
If indeed Tokyo attempts to tie Japanese funding of the Nakhodka route to a Russian promise to return the Kurils, then Moscow is highly likely to approve the export of Siberian oil by the new, Kremlin-approved owners of Yukos' fields there via the less-expensive pipeline to Daqing, China. And with any luck, the construction of the Daqing route will lead to more oil discoveries in Siberia sufficient to fill a pipeline to Nakhodka, as well as to greater oil revenues that will allow Moscow to build it without assistance from Tokyo.
<I><B>Mark N Katz </B>is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.</I>
<I><B>Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. </B></I></P>
<P>好像是一个美国“专家的文章”，大致内容是他说，日本的泰纳线还不确定，有几个原因，一是日本想把油管和北方四岛挂勾，而普京是绝对不可能同意的，二是泰纳线费用比安大线长的太多，费用太高，三是，尤克斯公司问题在里面的影响，安大线是尤克斯的项目，现在普京正在对付尤克斯，所以他所有项目都被控制。作者预测如果普京一旦成功逼尤克斯宣布破产然后成功收购尤克斯，将他收归国有后，对中国的项目可信性将会重新安排上日程表。</P>
<P>这和我之前对温总理访俄审慎乐观的分析比较类似，而且泰纳线迟迟不动工似乎也察觉到一点变化。当然，这些只是猜测，我还是觉得泰纳线包括到大庆的支线的方案比较可信。</P>
[此贴子已经被作者于2004-10-1 0:46:32编辑过]
<P>我想普京还在叫价.</P>
一女几嫁，看谁的礼聘高，俄国人想发横财。
<B>以下是引用<I>忠言逆耳</I>在2004-10-1 5:51:00的发言：</B>
一女几嫁，看谁的礼聘高，俄国人想发横财。这世上美女多 的是，难道要在一棵树上吊死吗？隔壁哈沙克斯坦家的女儿也不错，还没架子！
政治就是这样.
<P>中国老早就开始一夫多妻了。只是这个俄罗斯女人收了聘礼却不肯嫁过来才有纠纷的。呵呵！</P>
<P>普京把尤科斯收归国有以后，线路的最终计划应该就会定下来了！</P>
<P>如果把公司收为国有的话，应该可以定了。</P><P>以我的估计，还是安大线可能性要大。毕竟PTIN知道小日本后面还有个老美呢。</P><P>而老毛子和我们可以说是唇完齿寒，他总得估量一下。</P>
<P> 普京把尤科斯收归国有以后，线路的最终计划应该就会定下来了！</P><P> 我也是這是這麼猜的,,,,,但其最終會是什麼樣子的,現在實在看不出什麼.</P>
<B>以下是引用<I>儒雷</I>在2004-10-1 16:15:00的发言：</B>
<P> 普京把尤科斯收归国有以后，线路的最终计划应该就会定下来了！</P>
<P> 我也是這是這麼猜的,,,,,但其最終會是什麼樣子的,現在實在看不出什麼.</P>
如果真是这样的话，就说明中俄配合的很好，不让尤克斯钻空子。普金摆明了不着急，中国得到俄罗斯铁路运输石油的保证也暂时不着急了。就看尤克斯还能撑多久了。