俄罗斯人的政治策略

ECONOMIST.com
Ex-communist Europe
Eastern approaches
Justice delayed
Dec 16th 2010, 15:01 by A.O. | MOSCOW
A DAY after Viktor Danilkin, the reticent judge overseeing the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, inexplicably postponed his verdict until December 27th, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, delivered his own response. “A thief must stay in jail,” he said during a phone-in session with the Russian people. The line is uttered by a tough leather-clad cop in a vastly popular Soviet-era thriller.
就在负责米哈伊尔.霍多尔科夫斯基和普拉登.列别杰夫案件的维克多.达尼尔金法官令人费解地将判决日期推迟到12月27日的一天之后，俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔.普京在一次与俄民众进行的电话交谈中对此做出了回应：“盗贼必须被关在监狱里面。”这句话源于一部在苏联时代风靡全国的惊鯂小说中一名铁血警探的对白。
Pre-empting the judgement, Mr Putin continued: "We need to proceed from the fact that Mr Khodorkovsky's crime has been proven in court." The prime minister could—and certainly would, if confronted—argue that his statement referred to Mr Khodorkovsky’s current conviction, handed down in 2005. But delivered a day after the verdict was due, it sounded like an instruction to the judge.
在对判决进行定调的同时，普京继续说道：“我们必须以法庭已经证明了霍多尔科夫斯基先生所犯下的罪行的这个事实为出发点。”如果被质疑或被反对，总理可以并且当然会辩称他的话完全基于2005年对霍多尔科夫斯基先生的原判。但是鉴于原判的有效期限已经过去一天，普京的话听起来更像是对法官的一声指示。
Mr Putin knows his history. In the Stalinist show trials the verdict of guilt was delivered first by Stalin and the party, and only then confirmed by the court. As one of Mr Khodorkovsky's lawyers put it today: "I am very grateful to Vladimir Putin for what he has done... Right at the time when the judge is working on the verdict... he removed all doubt about who puts pressure on the court".
普京先生了解他自己的过去。在斯大林式的作秀式审判中，判决令首先由斯大林本人和党中央下达，法庭仅仅对判决令进行确认。就如霍多尔科夫斯基先生的律师今天说所的那样：“我非常感谢弗拉基米尔.普京先生所做的一切……就在法官研究下达判决的时候……他就已经打消了所有针对判决的幕后推手的猜测和怀疑。”
Mr Putin may have intervened simply to show that he can. He made mockery of the Russian court system by quoting from a Soviet-era comedy in which a character shouts: “Our court is the most humane court in the world”. Think for yourselves, Mr Putin suggested: Bernard Madoff had "received a 150-year prison term for a similar crime in the United States. I think we are a lot more liberal". Mr Putin also (again) charged Mr Khodorkovsky with murder, so a third criminal case against him can not be ruled out.
普京先生如同这般插手此事或许仅仅是为了向外界显示他能够插手此事。他曾经通过援引“我们的法庭是世界上最人道的法庭“这句苏联时期喜剧里的对白来嘲笑俄罗斯的法庭。想想你们自己，普京暗示，在美国，伯纳德.麦道夫因为类似罪行而被判了150年监禁，既然如此，我想我们的判决已经非常宽松了。普京先生还起诉霍多尔科夫斯基先生犯有谋杀罪，因此针对霍多尔科夫斯基的第三宗刑事审判也不会令人感到意外。
Mr Putin’s comments were a humiliating slap in the face of all those foreign dignitaries and Russian artists and writers who had lobbied Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, to stop persecuting Mr Khodorkovsky. But why did Mr Putin feel he needed to lean on the judge so publicly, and if the decision had already been made, why was the verdict postponed yesterday?
普京先生的言论对于那些试图通过游说迪米特里.梅德韦杰夫总统来阻止针对霍多尔科夫斯基先生的迫害的外国权贵们以及俄国内艺术家和作家们来说无异于当头一棒。但是普京先生为什么觉得他有必要如此公开地倚靠法官呢？假如判决已经做出，那么在昨天为什么要将判决推迟呢？
The most popular view is that the postponement was designed to deflate hype and distract attention. Indeed, at the end of Mr Khodorkovsky's first trial, the court delayed the verdict before sentencing him to eight years in prison.
最为普遍的观点认为推迟判决的目的在于避免炒作和转移视线。的确，就在霍多尔科夫斯基案一审结束的时候，法庭推迟了判决令的下达并在随后判处霍多尔科夫斯基先生八年监禁。

The court said yesterday that the new verdict would be delivered on December 27th. The argument is that this is a damage-limitation manoeuvre by the Kremlin, postponing the verdict to a time when most of the West is still in a post-Christmas lull and Russians are busy preparing for their ten-day new year holiday. “It is an old Soviet habit to move something to the end of the year, so that people pay less attention to it,” says  Lyudmila Alexeyeva, an 83-year old veteran human-rights activist with more experience than most of the state’s cowardly tactics.
法庭昨天声明将在12月27日下达新的判决。有一种观点认为这是克里姆林宫玩弄的一种“控制消极影响”的把戏，因为在12月27日，大多数西方国家正处于圣诞节后的休息之中，而俄罗斯人正在忙着准备他们的十天新年假期，所以人民就不太会去关注这件事了。柳德米拉.阿列克谢耶娃说：“把事情拖到年底解决是苏联时期的老做法，为得就是避开人们的注意。”她是一名83岁的老资格人权活动家，并且比该国的大多数胆小懦弱的权术家拥有更多的经验。

A minority view, however, is that the delay, and Mr Putin's persistence, show a degree of frustration and uncertainty in the final verdict and even a possible disagreement within the Kremlin on how to deal with Mr Khodorkovsy—hence Mr Putin's outburst.
然而，还有少数观点认为，这次判决的延期以及普京的坚持反映了终审所面对的阻力和不确定性的程度，甚至反映了克里姆林宫内部在霍多尔科夫斯基案上可能存在的分歧，因而普京才会如此语出惊人。
The chances that Mr Khodorkovsky will be acquitted are close to zero, given Mr Putin’s pronouncement. Only 4% of Russians, according to a poll taken before today's events, thought it could happen. An acquittal of a man branded as a murderer by Mr Putin would amount to a coup. But the length of a new sentence could be an important negotiating point within the Kremlin.
既然普京有话在先，那么霍多尔科夫斯基被无罪释放的可能性已经几乎为零。此前进行的一次调查显示，只有4%的俄罗斯人认为霍氏尚存被无罪释放的可能。对配普京认定为杀人犯的人进行无罪释放可是难上加难。但是量刑的轻重将会是克里姆林宫着重讨论的问题。

The maths is important. State prosecutors have demanded a 14-year sentence, but Mr Khodorkovsky has already served seven years of his original eight-year sentence. This means that if prosecutors get their way, Mr Khodorkovsky would stay in jail for another seven years. However, if the judge sentences Mr Khodorkovsky to just eight years, Mr Khodorkovsky would be released next year, when he was due to come out anyway. The trouble is that a presidential election is due in 2012. None of these decisions will be taken lightly by the Kremlin.
量刑非常重要。州检察官曾要求判处霍氏十四年年监禁，但是霍氏已经服完了原判八年监禁刑期中的七年。这就意味着如果州检察官的要求成立，霍氏将会再坐上七年大牢。但是，如果法官判处霍氏八年监禁的话，那么霍氏在明年就可以被刑满释放。麻烦在于：2012年，彼时俄国大选将至，克里姆林宫肯定会仔细考虑这个因素。

Mr Medvedev has distanced himself from the case. “He feels that he was not the one who put Khodorkovsky in jail and he is not the one to let him go,” one person close to the president told me recently. Yet if Mr Khodorkovsky goes down for several more years, Mr Medvedev, as the president, will bear responsibility, whether he likes it or not, as will his entourage. As an open letter from a number of foreign politicians to the president published on Tuesday made clear, he will be judged upon that decision.
梅德韦杰夫先生在这个案子上躲得很远。因为总统身边的人最近告诉我说：“他大概认为他并没有亲手将霍多尔科夫斯基关进大牢因此他也不应该亲手将霍多尔科夫斯基放出来。”但是如果霍氏继续被监禁若干年的话，做为总统的梅德韦杰夫先生就会担有责任，因为不论他本人愿意与否，他的幕僚也会的。
But why should he, or anyone else in the Kremlin, care? As ever in Russia, the main reason is money. It is a rare top Russian official that does not own property or hold a bank account in the West. Getting access to that money and legitimising their wealth is of paramount importance to Russian bureaucrats. (This is one reason why certain members of the Russian elite support Mr Medvedev, who is more acceptable in the West.) A blatant violation of the rule of law in Mr Khodorkovsky’s case could jeopardise this.
但是为什么他本人，或者克里姆林宫里面的其他人，会在意这件事呢？因为即使在俄国，最主要的原因也是钱。几乎没有俄罗斯高官在西方国家不拥有房产和银行账户。获取这些钱财并且将他们的财产合法化是俄罗斯官僚们手头最重要的事情。（这也是为什么俄国精英集团会支持梅德韦杰夫的原因之一，他在西方吃得比较开。）在霍多尔科夫斯基案这个问题上，对相关法律的公然违反会危害到相关官僚集团的财产安全。
A test case in this respect is that of Sergei Magnitsky, a corporate lawyer who was in effect driven to his death in custody by Russian prosecutors. Earlier today the European Parliament called on member states to introduce visa bans and asset seizures against Russian state officials who played a role in the murder of Mr Magnitsky and the $230m fraud that he had uncovered. (Fearing the MEPs’ decision, earlier this week Russia urgently dispatched Duma deputies to Strasbourg.) The vote does not carry legal force, but it makes it easier for member states to take action.
谢尔盖.马尼茨基案就是这个层面上的相关判例。谢尔盖.马尼茨基是一名公司聘用的律师，他在得到俄罗斯检察官的监护的情况下非正常死亡。就在今天，欧洲议会号召其成员国对卷入马尼茨基案的俄罗斯官员们禁发签证并没收其财产。（由于这个缘故，俄罗斯在本周将杜马医院紧急派往了斯特拉斯堡。）这次投票并没有任何法律效力，但会在今后使成员国更加容易地采取相应措施。

Similar sanctions have been proposed in America, and are soon to be voted on in congress. On December 10th John McCain, a US senator, said they should be extended to "other Russian officials who are complicit in human rights violations. We should also block their families from travelling to, studying and vacationing in America—and we should encourage our European allies to do the same."
在美国，类似的制裁方案已经被提出，并且很快会被交给国会进行投票。在12月10日，美国参议院约翰.麦坎恩曾说制裁对象应当包括“其他元如违反人权案件的俄罗斯官员。我们同样应该禁止他们的家人来美国旅游，学习或度假，我们还应该鼓励我们的欧洲盟友一起来这么做。”

The list of Russian officials who participated in the imprisonment of Mr Khodorkovsky could be longer, and richer, than those involved in the Magnitsky case. The thought that they could lose access to their foreign accounts fills them with dread. This may explain why the Kremlin is trying to play for time.
如果对霍多尔科夫斯基案涉案官员和马尼茨基案涉案官员列出名单的话，那么前者的名单会更长，涉案金额会更大。对可能失去国外账户财产的担心使他们非常恐惧。这也许能够解释克里姆林宫为什么会在这个问题上拖延时间。

But there is another reason for uncertainty about the outcome of the second Khodorkovsky trial. And that is a change of mood, at least among parts of the Russian elite—both business and intellectual—who are feeling increasingly discontent with Mr Putin. (See The Economist's recent briefing.) The financial crisis has drawn a line under the period of Mr Putin’s "stability", and the desire for change among many Russians is real, even if it is not yet captured in opinion polls.
关于霍多尔科夫斯基案二审结果的不确定性，另一个原因在于心情的变化，至少在一部分俄罗斯精英当中情况会是这样的。比如商界和学术界，因为他为越来越对普京感到不放心。金融危机迫使普京采取“稳定”的方针政策，而多数俄罗斯人渴望改变的愿望依旧迫切，即使这种愿望在公众意见调查中难以被察觉到。

This is not surprising, for Russia is not a cohesive country. It has many different realities. The group of journalists and intellectuals who stood in the Moscow snow for a couple of hours in front of the court yesterday before drifting to a warm nearby café for what one Russian journalist called "après-ski" coffee and pastries is one reality. Different people feel unhappy for different reasons, but the feeling is common.
这并不令人感到意外，因为俄罗斯不是一个充满凝聚力的国家。在俄罗斯的国土上上演着很多种现实。昨天，在法院门外的莫斯科大雪中等候了几个小时的记者和知识分子们纷纷跑到咖啡馆里用一种名叫après-ski的咖啡和点心来暖身，这代表了一种现实。不同的人群因为不同的原因对现实不满，但是不满的心情却是普遍存在的。
The labour camp in Chita, in eastern Siberia, where Mr Khodorkovsky and Mr Lebedev serve their sentence is another. Last night, across the footbridge over the Moscow river, a third reality was making itself worryingly present. There, in front of the busy Kievsky railway station, riot police units were amassing to prevent clashes between ultra-right nationalists and men from the Caucasus, many of whom are Russian citizens. There was rioting in the centre of Moscow throughout the evening.
位于东西伯利亚赤塔的劳动营，也就是霍多尔科夫斯基和列别杰夫服刑的地方，又代表了另一种现实。昨晚，就在莫斯科河上的步行桥上，第三种现实正在令人担心地上演。在繁忙的基耶夫斯基火车站前，防暴警察部队正在奉命集结来防止极右翼民族主义者和高加索移民之间爆发冲突，双方中的大多数人都是俄罗斯公民。骚乱在莫斯科市中心持续了一个晚上。

Until recently, these different realities were separated by thick layers of money. Now they are starting to fuse, with unpredictable consequences. Conspiracy theorists say the riots were the work of Mr Putin’s clan, designed to show that only he can bring in order and that he must therefore return as president in 2012. Perhaps. But while Mr Putin can create an illusion of stability and order, he can not make Russia stable or orderly. And although the Kremlin can postpone its verdict about Mr Khodorkovsky and Mr Lebedev, it can no longer postpone the dangers caused by the tensions of a political and economic system held together by corruption and violence.
直到最近，这些不同的现实才被一沓沓的钞票所分割开来。现在他们正在开始融合，引发不可预知的后果。阴谋论者说这次骚乱是普京政治集团的杰作，目的在于证明只有他才能给俄罗斯带来秩序因此他必须在2012年重回总统宝座。也许是这样。但是当普京能够制造出稳定和秩序的错觉时，他并不能让俄罗斯保持秩序和稳定。再者，尽管克里姆林宫能够推迟对霍多尔科夫斯基和列别杰夫的判决，但是对于由被腐败和暴力所把持的政治对立和经济体制所带来的危机，克里姆林宫再也无法回避这样的危机了。

ECONOMIST.com
Ex-communist Europe
Eastern approaches
Justice delayed
Dec 16th 2010, 15:01 by A.O. | MOSCOW
A DAY after Viktor Danilkin, the reticent judge overseeing the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, inexplicably postponed his verdict until December 27th, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, delivered his own response. “A thief must stay in jail,” he said during a phone-in session with the Russian people. The line is uttered by a tough leather-clad cop in a vastly popular Soviet-era thriller.
就在负责米哈伊尔.霍多尔科夫斯基和普拉登.列别杰夫案件的维克多.达尼尔金法官令人费解地将判决日期推迟到12月27日的一天之后，俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔.普京在一次与俄民众进行的电话交谈中对此做出了回应：“盗贼必须被关在监狱里面。”这句话源于一部在苏联时代风靡全国的惊鯂小说中一名铁血警探的对白。
Pre-empting the judgement, Mr Putin continued: "We need to proceed from the fact that Mr Khodorkovsky's crime has been proven in court." The prime minister could—and certainly would, if confronted—argue that his statement referred to Mr Khodorkovsky’s current conviction, handed down in 2005. But delivered a day after the verdict was due, it sounded like an instruction to the judge.
在对判决进行定调的同时，普京继续说道：“我们必须以法庭已经证明了霍多尔科夫斯基先生所犯下的罪行的这个事实为出发点。”如果被质疑或被反对，总理可以并且当然会辩称他的话完全基于2005年对霍多尔科夫斯基先生的原判。但是鉴于原判的有效期限已经过去一天，普京的话听起来更像是对法官的一声指示。
Mr Putin knows his history. In the Stalinist show trials the verdict of guilt was delivered first by Stalin and the party, and only then confirmed by the court. As one of Mr Khodorkovsky's lawyers put it today: "I am very grateful to Vladimir Putin for what he has done... Right at the time when the judge is working on the verdict... he removed all doubt about who puts pressure on the court".
普京先生了解他自己的过去。在斯大林式的作秀式审判中，判决令首先由斯大林本人和党中央下达，法庭仅仅对判决令进行确认。就如霍多尔科夫斯基先生的律师今天说所的那样：“我非常感谢弗拉基米尔.普京先生所做的一切……就在法官研究下达判决的时候……他就已经打消了所有针对判决的幕后推手的猜测和怀疑。”
Mr Putin may have intervened simply to show that he can. He made mockery of the Russian court system by quoting from a Soviet-era comedy in which a character shouts: “Our court is the most humane court in the world”. Think for yourselves, Mr Putin suggested: Bernard Madoff had "received a 150-year prison term for a similar crime in the United States. I think we are a lot more liberal". Mr Putin also (again) charged Mr Khodorkovsky with murder, so a third criminal case against him can not be ruled out.
普京先生如同这般插手此事或许仅仅是为了向外界显示他能够插手此事。他曾经通过援引“我们的法庭是世界上最人道的法庭“这句苏联时期喜剧里的对白来嘲笑俄罗斯的法庭。想想你们自己，普京暗示，在美国，伯纳德.麦道夫因为类似罪行而被判了150年监禁，既然如此，我想我们的判决已经非常宽松了。普京先生还起诉霍多尔科夫斯基先生犯有谋杀罪，因此针对霍多尔科夫斯基的第三宗刑事审判也不会令人感到意外。
Mr Putin’s comments were a humiliating slap in the face of all those foreign dignitaries and Russian artists and writers who had lobbied Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, to stop persecuting Mr Khodorkovsky. But why did Mr Putin feel he needed to lean on the judge so publicly, and if the decision had already been made, why was the verdict postponed yesterday?
普京先生的言论对于那些试图通过游说迪米特里.梅德韦杰夫总统来阻止针对霍多尔科夫斯基先生的迫害的外国权贵们以及俄国内艺术家和作家们来说无异于当头一棒。但是普京先生为什么觉得他有必要如此公开地倚靠法官呢？假如判决已经做出，那么在昨天为什么要将判决推迟呢？
The most popular view is that the postponement was designed to deflate hype and distract attention. Indeed, at the end of Mr Khodorkovsky's first trial, the court delayed the verdict before sentencing him to eight years in prison.
最为普遍的观点认为推迟判决的目的在于避免炒作和转移视线。的确，就在霍多尔科夫斯基案一审结束的时候，法庭推迟了判决令的下达并在随后判处霍多尔科夫斯基先生八年监禁。

The court said yesterday that the new verdict would be delivered on December 27th. The argument is that this is a damage-limitation manoeuvre by the Kremlin, postponing the verdict to a time when most of the West is still in a post-Christmas lull and Russians are busy preparing for their ten-day new year holiday. “It is an old Soviet habit to move something to the end of the year, so that people pay less attention to it,” says  Lyudmila Alexeyeva, an 83-year old veteran human-rights activist with more experience than most of the state’s cowardly tactics.
法庭昨天声明将在12月27日下达新的判决。有一种观点认为这是克里姆林宫玩弄的一种“控制消极影响”的把戏，因为在12月27日，大多数西方国家正处于圣诞节后的休息之中，而俄罗斯人正在忙着准备他们的十天新年假期，所以人民就不太会去关注这件事了。柳德米拉.阿列克谢耶娃说：“把事情拖到年底解决是苏联时期的老做法，为得就是避开人们的注意。”她是一名83岁的老资格人权活动家，并且比该国的大多数胆小懦弱的权术家拥有更多的经验。

A minority view, however, is that the delay, and Mr Putin's persistence, show a degree of frustration and uncertainty in the final verdict and even a possible disagreement within the Kremlin on how to deal with Mr Khodorkovsy—hence Mr Putin's outburst.
然而，还有少数观点认为，这次判决的延期以及普京的坚持反映了终审所面对的阻力和不确定性的程度，甚至反映了克里姆林宫内部在霍多尔科夫斯基案上可能存在的分歧，因而普京才会如此语出惊人。
The chances that Mr Khodorkovsky will be acquitted are close to zero, given Mr Putin’s pronouncement. Only 4% of Russians, according to a poll taken before today's events, thought it could happen. An acquittal of a man branded as a murderer by Mr Putin would amount to a coup. But the length of a new sentence could be an important negotiating point within the Kremlin.
既然普京有话在先，那么霍多尔科夫斯基被无罪释放的可能性已经几乎为零。此前进行的一次调查显示，只有4%的俄罗斯人认为霍氏尚存被无罪释放的可能。对配普京认定为杀人犯的人进行无罪释放可是难上加难。但是量刑的轻重将会是克里姆林宫着重讨论的问题。

The maths is important. State prosecutors have demanded a 14-year sentence, but Mr Khodorkovsky has already served seven years of his original eight-year sentence. This means that if prosecutors get their way, Mr Khodorkovsky would stay in jail for another seven years. However, if the judge sentences Mr Khodorkovsky to just eight years, Mr Khodorkovsky would be released next year, when he was due to come out anyway. The trouble is that a presidential election is due in 2012. None of these decisions will be taken lightly by the Kremlin.
量刑非常重要。州检察官曾要求判处霍氏十四年年监禁，但是霍氏已经服完了原判八年监禁刑期中的七年。这就意味着如果州检察官的要求成立，霍氏将会再坐上七年大牢。但是，如果法官判处霍氏八年监禁的话，那么霍氏在明年就可以被刑满释放。麻烦在于：2012年，彼时俄国大选将至，克里姆林宫肯定会仔细考虑这个因素。

Mr Medvedev has distanced himself from the case. “He feels that he was not the one who put Khodorkovsky in jail and he is not the one to let him go,” one person close to the president told me recently. Yet if Mr Khodorkovsky goes down for several more years, Mr Medvedev, as the president, will bear responsibility, whether he likes it or not, as will his entourage. As an open letter from a number of foreign politicians to the president published on Tuesday made clear, he will be judged upon that decision.
梅德韦杰夫先生在这个案子上躲得很远。因为总统身边的人最近告诉我说：“他大概认为他并没有亲手将霍多尔科夫斯基关进大牢因此他也不应该亲手将霍多尔科夫斯基放出来。”但是如果霍氏继续被监禁若干年的话，做为总统的梅德韦杰夫先生就会担有责任，因为不论他本人愿意与否，他的幕僚也会的。
But why should he, or anyone else in the Kremlin, care? As ever in Russia, the main reason is money. It is a rare top Russian official that does not own property or hold a bank account in the West. Getting access to that money and legitimising their wealth is of paramount importance to Russian bureaucrats. (This is one reason why certain members of the Russian elite support Mr Medvedev, who is more acceptable in the West.) A blatant violation of the rule of law in Mr Khodorkovsky’s case could jeopardise this.
但是为什么他本人，或者克里姆林宫里面的其他人，会在意这件事呢？因为即使在俄国，最主要的原因也是钱。几乎没有俄罗斯高官在西方国家不拥有房产和银行账户。获取这些钱财并且将他们的财产合法化是俄罗斯官僚们手头最重要的事情。（这也是为什么俄国精英集团会支持梅德韦杰夫的原因之一，他在西方吃得比较开。）在霍多尔科夫斯基案这个问题上，对相关法律的公然违反会危害到相关官僚集团的财产安全。
A test case in this respect is that of Sergei Magnitsky, a corporate lawyer who was in effect driven to his death in custody by Russian prosecutors. Earlier today the European Parliament called on member states to introduce visa bans and asset seizures against Russian state officials who played a role in the murder of Mr Magnitsky and the $230m fraud that he had uncovered. (Fearing the MEPs’ decision, earlier this week Russia urgently dispatched Duma deputies to Strasbourg.) The vote does not carry legal force, but it makes it easier for member states to take action.
谢尔盖.马尼茨基案就是这个层面上的相关判例。谢尔盖.马尼茨基是一名公司聘用的律师，他在得到俄罗斯检察官的监护的情况下非正常死亡。就在今天，欧洲议会号召其成员国对卷入马尼茨基案的俄罗斯官员们禁发签证并没收其财产。（由于这个缘故，俄罗斯在本周将杜马医院紧急派往了斯特拉斯堡。）这次投票并没有任何法律效力，但会在今后使成员国更加容易地采取相应措施。

Similar sanctions have been proposed in America, and are soon to be voted on in congress. On December 10th John McCain, a US senator, said they should be extended to "other Russian officials who are complicit in human rights violations. We should also block their families from travelling to, studying and vacationing in America—and we should encourage our European allies to do the same."
在美国，类似的制裁方案已经被提出，并且很快会被交给国会进行投票。在12月10日，美国参议院约翰.麦坎恩曾说制裁对象应当包括“其他元如违反人权案件的俄罗斯官员。我们同样应该禁止他们的家人来美国旅游，学习或度假，我们还应该鼓励我们的欧洲盟友一起来这么做。”

The list of Russian officials who participated in the imprisonment of Mr Khodorkovsky could be longer, and richer, than those involved in the Magnitsky case. The thought that they could lose access to their foreign accounts fills them with dread. This may explain why the Kremlin is trying to play for time.
如果对霍多尔科夫斯基案涉案官员和马尼茨基案涉案官员列出名单的话，那么前者的名单会更长，涉案金额会更大。对可能失去国外账户财产的担心使他们非常恐惧。这也许能够解释克里姆林宫为什么会在这个问题上拖延时间。

But there is another reason for uncertainty about the outcome of the second Khodorkovsky trial. And that is a change of mood, at least among parts of the Russian elite—both business and intellectual—who are feeling increasingly discontent with Mr Putin. (See The Economist's recent briefing.) The financial crisis has drawn a line under the period of Mr Putin’s "stability", and the desire for change among many Russians is real, even if it is not yet captured in opinion polls.
关于霍多尔科夫斯基案二审结果的不确定性，另一个原因在于心情的变化，至少在一部分俄罗斯精英当中情况会是这样的。比如商界和学术界，因为他为越来越对普京感到不放心。金融危机迫使普京采取“稳定”的方针政策，而多数俄罗斯人渴望改变的愿望依旧迫切，即使这种愿望在公众意见调查中难以被察觉到。

This is not surprising, for Russia is not a cohesive country. It has many different realities. The group of journalists and intellectuals who stood in the Moscow snow for a couple of hours in front of the court yesterday before drifting to a warm nearby café for what one Russian journalist called "après-ski" coffee and pastries is one reality. Different people feel unhappy for different reasons, but the feeling is common.
这并不令人感到意外，因为俄罗斯不是一个充满凝聚力的国家。在俄罗斯的国土上上演着很多种现实。昨天，在法院门外的莫斯科大雪中等候了几个小时的记者和知识分子们纷纷跑到咖啡馆里用一种名叫après-ski的咖啡和点心来暖身，这代表了一种现实。不同的人群因为不同的原因对现实不满，但是不满的心情却是普遍存在的。
The labour camp in Chita, in eastern Siberia, where Mr Khodorkovsky and Mr Lebedev serve their sentence is another. Last night, across the footbridge over the Moscow river, a third reality was making itself worryingly present. There, in front of the busy Kievsky railway station, riot police units were amassing to prevent clashes between ultra-right nationalists and men from the Caucasus, many of whom are Russian citizens. There was rioting in the centre of Moscow throughout the evening.
位于东西伯利亚赤塔的劳动营，也就是霍多尔科夫斯基和列别杰夫服刑的地方，又代表了另一种现实。昨晚，就在莫斯科河上的步行桥上，第三种现实正在令人担心地上演。在繁忙的基耶夫斯基火车站前，防暴警察部队正在奉命集结来防止极右翼民族主义者和高加索移民之间爆发冲突，双方中的大多数人都是俄罗斯公民。骚乱在莫斯科市中心持续了一个晚上。

Until recently, these different realities were separated by thick layers of money. Now they are starting to fuse, with unpredictable consequences. Conspiracy theorists say the riots were the work of Mr Putin’s clan, designed to show that only he can bring in order and that he must therefore return as president in 2012. Perhaps. But while Mr Putin can create an illusion of stability and order, he can not make Russia stable or orderly. And although the Kremlin can postpone its verdict about Mr Khodorkovsky and Mr Lebedev, it can no longer postpone the dangers caused by the tensions of a political and economic system held together by corruption and violence.
直到最近，这些不同的现实才被一沓沓的钞票所分割开来。现在他们正在开始融合，引发不可预知的后果。阴谋论者说这次骚乱是普京政治集团的杰作，目的在于证明只有他才能给俄罗斯带来秩序因此他必须在2012年重回总统宝座。也许是这样。但是当普京能够制造出稳定和秩序的错觉时，他并不能让俄罗斯保持秩序和稳定。再者，尽管克里姆林宫能够推迟对霍多尔科夫斯基和列别杰夫的判决，但是对于由被腐败和暴力所把持的政治对立和经济体制所带来的危机，克里姆林宫再也无法回避这样的危机了。