超级军网印媒：2020年中国会像日本一样衰落 或爆水争端
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/18 12:25:00
资料图:印度国产战术导弹发射
环球网记者高友斌报道2010年第一天，印度主流英文报纸《印度时报》发文对2020年时的印度和世界进行了大胆预测。该文称，届时，印度经济发展速度将会超过中国。印度将收购媒体大亨默多克的“媒体帝国”，让美国著名大报《纽约时报》成为印度媒体巨头的 “子公司”。同时，印度还会最终加入核俱乐部，出口核设施，并转而“对其他国家进行核制裁”。另外，到2020年，印度还会进一步分裂，由当前的28个邦分裂为50个邦。该报还预测，到时中国会对印度的崛起感到担忧，并在边界线上制造紧张。全文大意如下：
过去的几十年，印度是世界上饿死人数最多、外国援助最多和贿赂最为盛行的国家。进入21世纪，印度从一个表现拙劣的国家改造成为了一个潜在的超级大国。到2020年，印度还将超过中国，成为世界上经济发展最快的国家。
到2020年，中国将开始变老，遭遇劳动力的减少，并被迫重估自己的货币。因此，中国的增长将会减速，就像日本在20世纪90年代的减速那样。日本在上世纪80年代的发展曾经看起来永远也不会停止。中国已成为世界第二大经济体，它以出口为导向的经济模式将会大大削弱——世界将不能再像以前那样吸收它的产品了。同时，印度将获得越来越多的受教育程度更高的劳动力。印度较穷的邦将开始追赶富裕邦。这会使印度的国内生产总值（GDP）到2020年达到10%，而中国的增长将降至7%到8%。
到2020年，印度还会取代美国成为世界上最大的英语国家。因此，全球出版行业将明显地转向印度。默多克的继承人会把他濒于崩溃的媒体帝国出售给印度。美国的《纽约时报》也会成为印度出版巨头的子公司。
到2020年，印度会最终加入核俱乐部，它受到的制裁已经被取消。到2020年，印度公司将成为核设施的主要出口者。因此，印度将能够对其他国家实行核制裁。印度将会同美国和加拿大一起，开发新技术，从气体水化物中开采天然气。印度拥有世界上最大的气体水化物储量，因此将成为世界上最大的生产国。印度将因此可以用天然气取代煤炭进行发电，从而大大减少二氧化碳的排放。
印度越来越多的地区会要求独立。到2020年，印度将有50个邦，而不是现在的28个。新邦不会很小。到时候，印度的50个邦会有15亿人口，每个邦平均会有3000万人口，比美国各州当前的平均600万人口高很多。
出于对印度崛起的担忧，中国将会挑起喜马拉雅边境线的紧张。中国将威胁把从西藏流向印度的水引向本国缺水的北方，而印度将会威胁炸掉中国任何这样的工程。这一问题将吵到联合国安理会去。
到2020年，恐怖主义会在印度崛起，但印度经济仍会保持发展。http://news.ifeng.com/mil/1/201001/0102_339_1495803_2.shtml
资料图:印度国产战术导弹发射
环球网记者高友斌报道2010年第一天，印度主流英文报纸《印度时报》发文对2020年时的印度和世界进行了大胆预测。该文称，届时，印度经济发展速度将会超过中国。印度将收购媒体大亨默多克的“媒体帝国”，让美国著名大报《纽约时报》成为印度媒体巨头的 “子公司”。同时，印度还会最终加入核俱乐部，出口核设施，并转而“对其他国家进行核制裁”。另外，到2020年，印度还会进一步分裂，由当前的28个邦分裂为50个邦。该报还预测，到时中国会对印度的崛起感到担忧，并在边界线上制造紧张。全文大意如下：
过去的几十年，印度是世界上饿死人数最多、外国援助最多和贿赂最为盛行的国家。进入21世纪，印度从一个表现拙劣的国家改造成为了一个潜在的超级大国。到2020年，印度还将超过中国，成为世界上经济发展最快的国家。
到2020年，中国将开始变老，遭遇劳动力的减少，并被迫重估自己的货币。因此，中国的增长将会减速，就像日本在20世纪90年代的减速那样。日本在上世纪80年代的发展曾经看起来永远也不会停止。中国已成为世界第二大经济体，它以出口为导向的经济模式将会大大削弱——世界将不能再像以前那样吸收它的产品了。同时，印度将获得越来越多的受教育程度更高的劳动力。印度较穷的邦将开始追赶富裕邦。这会使印度的国内生产总值（GDP）到2020年达到10%，而中国的增长将降至7%到8%。
到2020年，印度还会取代美国成为世界上最大的英语国家。因此，全球出版行业将明显地转向印度。默多克的继承人会把他濒于崩溃的媒体帝国出售给印度。美国的《纽约时报》也会成为印度出版巨头的子公司。
到2020年，印度会最终加入核俱乐部，它受到的制裁已经被取消。到2020年，印度公司将成为核设施的主要出口者。因此，印度将能够对其他国家实行核制裁。印度将会同美国和加拿大一起，开发新技术，从气体水化物中开采天然气。印度拥有世界上最大的气体水化物储量，因此将成为世界上最大的生产国。印度将因此可以用天然气取代煤炭进行发电，从而大大减少二氧化碳的排放。
印度越来越多的地区会要求独立。到2020年，印度将有50个邦，而不是现在的28个。新邦不会很小。到时候，印度的50个邦会有15亿人口，每个邦平均会有3000万人口，比美国各州当前的平均600万人口高很多。
出于对印度崛起的担忧，中国将会挑起喜马拉雅边境线的紧张。中国将威胁把从西藏流向印度的水引向本国缺水的北方，而印度将会威胁炸掉中国任何这样的工程。这一问题将吵到联合国安理会去。
到2020年，恐怖主义会在印度崛起，但印度经济仍会保持发展。http://news.ifeng.com/mil/1/201001/0102_339_1495803_2.shtml
已经2010了。。。醒醒吧。。。阿三，。
出于对印度崛起的担忧，中国将会挑起喜马拉雅边境线的紧张。中国将威胁把从西藏流向印度的水引向本国缺水的北方，而印度将会威胁炸掉中国任何这样的工程。这一问题将吵到联合国安理会去。
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A San很会幻想……
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A San很会幻想……
预测，可能，将要，计划，或。。。
这些话如果是三哥说的。。。
大家就散了吧。。。。
这些话如果是三哥说的。。。
大家就散了吧。。。。
自己YY都这么嗨。。。
阿三啊,喜欢意淫嘛
过去的几十年，印度是世界上饿死人数最多、外国援助最多和贿赂最为盛行的国家。进入21世纪，印度从一个表现拙劣的国家改造成为了一个潜在的超级大国
{:3_98:}好大的转变-----------------------不是说不可能，但是发生这种变化的条件呢，在哪里？仅仅是下文中的人口红利吗？
{:3_98:}好大的转变-----------------------不是说不可能，但是发生这种变化的条件呢，在哪里？仅仅是下文中的人口红利吗？
YY的厉害.很符合A3的性格
还是YY一下三哥到2020年人口会达到多少?
到时候,会不会有:"世界能否养活印度"这种论调出来?
到时候,会不会有:"世界能否养活印度"这种论调出来?
书中自有颜如玉，书中自有黄金屋，A3的繁荣昌盛都在文字中体现了。
这个是硬科幻
我贴原文给大家娱乐一下
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.c ... cleshow/5401981.cms
India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar
In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:
India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply - the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India's GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China's growth will dip to 7-8%.
India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch's heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.
In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.
India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates - a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.
India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran's mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.
More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.
China, alarmed at India's rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.
Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai's suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai's growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.c ... cleshow/5401981.cms
India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar
In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:
India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply - the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India's GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China's growth will dip to 7-8%.
India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch's heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.
In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.
India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates - a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.
India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran's mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.
More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.
China, alarmed at India's rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.
Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai's suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai's growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.
A3不幻想，世界将会怎样？这个国家的人都是在幻想中饿死的！
A3不幻想，世界将会怎样？这个国家的人都是在幻想中饿死的！
中国劳动力再减少也至少有2亿人口，实在看不出有什么可怕的
想收购美国媒体，前提是必须入美国籍吧
opop6234 发表于 2010-1-2 12:59 
真是阿三写的？怀疑。
它不一直都是民主的典范，人民的天堂，世界的希望吗？
真是阿三写的？怀疑。
它不一直都是民主的典范，人民的天堂，世界的希望吗？
党的最中央 发表于 2010-1-2 21:31
从报道看应是阿三写的吧
从报道看应是阿三写的吧
唱衰中国的大有人在。
都2020了还有7%-8%的增长率也算可以接受了。。。三哥这次YY的不是太离谱，有进步了;P
到2020年，印度还会取代美国成为世界上最大的英语国家
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也就这条能实现...
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也就这条能实现...
碧落黄泉 发表于 2010-1-3 20:33
三哥说英语的人口其实比例没那么大.
三哥说英语的人口其实比例没那么大.
3哥有点天方夜谈了。
三哥国内难道没有JY和BKC
正常情况下，我应该还可以活十年的，等着瞧
阿三最大的优点就是够乐观，起码活的很幸福