美报告称中国094核潜艇噪音比俄老式核潜艇还大

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/11/subnoise.php

China’s newest nuclear submarines are noisier than 1970s-era Soviet nuclear submarines.

China’s new Jin-class ballistic missile submarine is noisier than the Russian Delta III-class submarines built more than 30 years ago, according to a report produced by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

The report, which was first posted on the FAS Secrecy News Blog and has since been removed from the ONI web site, is to my knowledge the first official description made public of Chinese and Russian modern nuclear submarine noise levels.

Force Level

The report shows that China now has two Jin SSBNs, one of which is based at Hainan Island with the South Sea Fleet, along with two Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). The Jin was first described at Hainan in February 2008 and the two Shangs in September 2008. The second Jin SSBN is based at Jianggezhuang with the North Sea Fleet alongside the old Xia-class SSBN and four Han-class SSNs.

The report confirms the existence of the Type 095, a third-generation SSN intended to follow the Type 093 Shang-class. Five Type 095s are expected from around 2015. The Type-95 is estimated to be noisier than the Russian Akula I SSN built 20 years ago.

Missile Range

The ONI report states that the JL-2 sea-launched ballistic missile on the Jin SSBNs has a range of ~4,000 nautical miles (~7,400 km) “is capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese littorals.” Not quite, unless Chinese littorals extend well into the Sea of Japan. Since the continental United States does not include Alaska and Hawaii, a warhead from a 7,400-km range JL-2 would fall into the sea about 800 km from Seattle. A JL-2 carrying penetration aids in addition to a warhead would presumably have a shorter range.

Although the ONI report states that the Julang-2 can target the Continental United States, the range estimate it provides is insufficient to reach the lower 48 states or Hawaii.


Alaska would be in range if the JL-2 is launched from the very northern parts of Chinese waters, but Hawaii is out of range unless the missile is launched from a position close to South Korea or Japan. The U.S. Defense Department’s 2009 report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China also shows the range of the JL-2 to be insufficient to target the Continental United States or Hawaii from Chinese waters. The JL-2 instead appears to be a regional weapon with potential mission against Russia and India and U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

Patrol Levels

The report also states that Chinese submarine patrols have “more than tripled” over the past few years, when compared to the historical levels of the last two decades.

That sounds like a lot, but given that the entire Chinese submarine fleet in those two decades in average conducted fewer than three patrols per year combined, a trippling doesn’t amout to a whole lot for a submarine fleet of 63 submarines. According to data obtained from ONI under FOIA, the patrol number in 2008 was 12.

Since only the most capable of the Chinese attack submarines presumably conduct these patrols away from Chinese waters – and since China has yet to send one of its ballistic missile submarines on patrol – that could mean one or two patrols per year per submarine.

Implications

The ONI report concludes that the Jin SSBN with the JL-2 SLBM gives the PLA Navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability. The authors must mean in principle, because in a war such noisy submarines would presumably be highly vulnerabe to U.S. or Japanese anti-submarine warfare forces. (The noise level of China’s most modern diesel-electric submarines is another matter; ONI says some are comparable to Russian diesel-electric submarines).

That does raise an interesting question about the Chinese SSBN program: if Chinese leaders are so concerned about the vulnerability of their nuclear deterrent, why base a significant portion of it on a few noisy platforms and send them out to sea where they can be sunk by U.S. attack submarines in a war? And if Chinese planners know that the sea-based deterrent is much more vulnerable than its land-based deterrent, why do they waste money on the SSBN program?

The answer is probably a combination of national prestige and scenarios involving India or Russia that have less capable anti-submarine forces.

http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/11/subnoise.php

China’s newest nuclear submarines are noisier than 1970s-era Soviet nuclear submarines.

China’s new Jin-class ballistic missile submarine is noisier than the Russian Delta III-class submarines built more than 30 years ago, according to a report produced by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

The report, which was first posted on the FAS Secrecy News Blog and has since been removed from the ONI web site, is to my knowledge the first official description made public of Chinese and Russian modern nuclear submarine noise levels.

Force Level

The report shows that China now has two Jin SSBNs, one of which is based at Hainan Island with the South Sea Fleet, along with two Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). The Jin was first described at Hainan in February 2008 and the two Shangs in September 2008. The second Jin SSBN is based at Jianggezhuang with the North Sea Fleet alongside the old Xia-class SSBN and four Han-class SSNs.

The report confirms the existence of the Type 095, a third-generation SSN intended to follow the Type 093 Shang-class. Five Type 095s are expected from around 2015. The Type-95 is estimated to be noisier than the Russian Akula I SSN built 20 years ago.

Missile Range

The ONI report states that the JL-2 sea-launched ballistic missile on the Jin SSBNs has a range of ~4,000 nautical miles (~7,400 km) “is capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese littorals.” Not quite, unless Chinese littorals extend well into the Sea of Japan. Since the continental United States does not include Alaska and Hawaii, a warhead from a 7,400-km range JL-2 would fall into the sea about 800 km from Seattle. A JL-2 carrying penetration aids in addition to a warhead would presumably have a shorter range.

Although the ONI report states that the Julang-2 can target the Continental United States, the range estimate it provides is insufficient to reach the lower 48 states or Hawaii.


Alaska would be in range if the JL-2 is launched from the very northern parts of Chinese waters, but Hawaii is out of range unless the missile is launched from a position close to South Korea or Japan. The U.S. Defense Department’s 2009 report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China also shows the range of the JL-2 to be insufficient to target the Continental United States or Hawaii from Chinese waters. The JL-2 instead appears to be a regional weapon with potential mission against Russia and India and U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

Patrol Levels

The report also states that Chinese submarine patrols have “more than tripled” over the past few years, when compared to the historical levels of the last two decades.

That sounds like a lot, but given that the entire Chinese submarine fleet in those two decades in average conducted fewer than three patrols per year combined, a trippling doesn’t amout to a whole lot for a submarine fleet of 63 submarines. According to data obtained from ONI under FOIA, the patrol number in 2008 was 12.

Since only the most capable of the Chinese attack submarines presumably conduct these patrols away from Chinese waters – and since China has yet to send one of its ballistic missile submarines on patrol – that could mean one or two patrols per year per submarine.

Implications

The ONI report concludes that the Jin SSBN with the JL-2 SLBM gives the PLA Navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability. The authors must mean in principle, because in a war such noisy submarines would presumably be highly vulnerabe to U.S. or Japanese anti-submarine warfare forces. (The noise level of China’s most modern diesel-electric submarines is another matter; ONI says some are comparable to Russian diesel-electric submarines).

That does raise an interesting question about the Chinese SSBN program: if Chinese leaders are so concerned about the vulnerability of their nuclear deterrent, why base a significant portion of it on a few noisy platforms and send them out to sea where they can be sunk by U.S. attack submarines in a war? And if Chinese planners know that the sea-based deterrent is much more vulnerable than its land-based deterrent, why do they waste money on the SSBN program?

The answer is probably a combination of national prestige and scenarios involving India or Russia that have less capable anti-submarine forces.

露珠湿纱碧，暮幽晓寂寂

qaqa00007 发表于 2009-11-22 21:08


    兰州市烧饼，木有小JJ？

俺只是翻译。。。

fas? 这是啥网站?  还有google广告和donate{:2_71:}{:3_91:}

楼猪是SB，没有小JJ

93/94的具体性能知道的人肯定不会说滴。不过某些方面落后那是肯定滴。

JL2射程7400，打死兰州我也不信

看标题就是某网来的……

美国海军情报办公室日前公布的中国海军军力发展报告称，中国的新型晋级弹道导弹核潜艇的噪音较大，超过俄罗斯30年前建造的德尔塔III级核潜艇水平。美国核武器专家汉斯·克里斯滕森21日在美国科学家联盟网站撰文称，这是美国官方首次公开谈论中俄两国新型核潜艇噪音情况。

美国海军的这份报告称，中国目前已经拥有两艘晋级弹道导弹核潜艇，其中一艘与两艘093级商级攻击型核潜艇一起部署在南海舰队的海南基地。2008年2月，外界消息首次提及晋级弹道导弹核潜艇部署海南；同年9月，两艘商级核潜艇也被曝部署在海南。第二艘晋级弹道导弹核潜艇与陈旧的夏级弹道导弹核潜艇和4艘汉级攻击型核潜艇一起，部署在隶属于北海舰队的姜各庄基地。

报告还证实了095型攻击型核潜艇的存在。该潜艇为中国第三代攻击型核潜艇，旨在替换现役的093级潜艇。五艘095级攻击型核潜艇有望于2015年部署部队。据信095型核潜艇的噪音要比俄罗斯20年前建造的阿库拉I级核潜艇的大。

报告还指出，晋级弹道导弹核潜艇配备的巨浪-2海射弹道导弹射程为4000海里（约7400公里），从中国沿海发射可以攻击美国大陆，但除非深入日本海域附近发射，否则其射程尚不足以覆盖美国所有州。巨浪-2导弹的弹头将会落入距离西雅图800公里的水域。如果巨浪-2导弹携带突防辅助工具，弹头的射程将会进一步缩短。

报告称，要想打击阿拉斯加，必须从中国领海的极北端发射巨浪-2导弹，而要打击夏威夷，则必须在靠近韩国或日本的地点进行发射。美国国防部在2009年提交给国会的中国军力报告评估中也认为，巨浪-2导弹从中国海域发射不能打击美国整个大陆以及夏威夷，其主要作为区域武器用以对付针对俄罗斯、印度或美国在关岛和日本的军事基地的相关任务。

报告也指出，与过去20年的历史巡逻水平相比，中国潜艇的巡逻次数在过去几年增加了三倍多。美国核武器专家克里斯滕森称，尽管这听上去很多，之际上考虑到整个中国潜艇舰队在过去20年里每年出海巡逻的次数平均总共不超过3次，这与拥有63艘潜艇的中国潜艇部队来说是不相称的。根据美国海军情报办公室报告中透露的数据，中国潜艇2008年出海巡逻的次数为12次。

鉴于中国很可能只有最先进的攻击型核潜艇才会出海执行巡逻任务，而且中国尚未没有派遣弹道导弹核潜艇出海进行巡逻，这意味着每艘潜艇每年巡逻大概一两次。

报告最后得出结论认为，装备有巨浪-2海射弹道导弹的晋级弹道导弹核潜艇，使中国海军第一次拥有了可靠地二次核打击能力。不过中国晋级核潜艇的噪音水平使其在与美日反潜部队作战时很容易遭到攻击。中国最现代的柴电潜艇则另当别论，其静音能力与俄罗斯的柴电潜艇非常接近。

克里斯滕森称，这也提出了一个非常有意思的问题：如果中国领导层非常关注核威慑力的脆弱性，又为何打造一个噪音极高的核武平台，并将其派遣到很容易在战时遭美国攻击型潜艇击沉的海域？如果中国决策层清楚海基核威慑的脆弱性超过陆基核威慑，其为何又斥巨资进行弹道导弹核潜艇项目？答案很可能是中国主要为了谋求国家声望，以及对付反潜作战能力稍逊一筹的印度和俄罗斯部队。

70年代的苏联潜艇都停在港里或者是尸体，当然没有噪音~

FAS跟global security，好一阵子没去了。不知道FAS网站还有没有一打开就一堆要求donate的视窗？

如果连30年前的毛货的噪音水平都不如,那宁可相信母猪都上树.

文中没提093的噪音，纵使093跟094使用相同推进系统，但是094那个大龟背就会导致双方噪音特性天差地别。

不能说中国的不好吗？还用悍然

既然如此，米军是否以后就别来捣乱了？:D

人家也就是个大忽悠，真正能说的，不会说，说出来的很多也是烟雾弹，不必措辞“悍然”

只要是TB的，就是落后的，不管这年头流行不流行畅爽毛B，家B不如毛B。

如是真的那可
超级BKC了

很好啊，这样中国威胁论者就可以闭嘴.................

TG说，我都没造呢，哪来的噪音给你测。

毛都没见着一根就说三道四，跟神棍算命没什么区别，多喝二两后估计说得更玄乎。

很正常 不大就不是中国造了

美国佬有时候也会想当然..........;

用得着这样大的反应骂楼主吗？人家只是转帖而已。
而且就看094那如蜂窝一样瘆人的排水孔，水下噪音也小不了。

onepiece 发表于 2009-11-23 09:22

hellogirl 发表于 2009-11-23 08:07

大家都是文明人

由他说吧。。。反正要钱的时候就TG天下无敌。。。要选票的时候TG比游击队还游击队

米帝的胡言乱语

文明文明

用骂人压制人家那是不好的，
以后论坛会变口水兵大战的，

话说美国的报告啥时候准过{:yi:}

MD说话从来是放屁

元老院不给海军钱了啊……

美国人怎么知道我们的核潜艇的噪音分贝数的

咱们艇不如人，弹不如人，所以就不要再说中国威胁论了

永远爱海军 发表于 2009-11-23 22:09
坐在电脑前面编的呗{:3_90:} 要不咋能确定就是094呢

好吧……噪音再大也是战略核潜艇

比以前应该还是进步了不少吧

TG这么差劲，大家以后就别瞎嚷嚷TG威胁别人了吧:D