乌克兰威胁俄国，停止供应军用零件

基督教箴言报7小时前报道

离开乌克兰零件，俄国军队会不会散架？
俄国军队以来乌克兰发动机、武器、飞机——基辅面临侵略，考虑停止供货。
俄国部署在东乌克兰边境的精锐之师面临小小的麻烦：它需要乌克兰生产的零件。
乌克兰临时政府在困境中发出警告，可能停止供应武器给俄国。基辅的第一副总理Vitaliy Yarema说，“帮俄国人造武器，然后来对付我们，是愚蠢行为。”
专家说这将导致俄国战斗力受损，因为俄军在2008年格鲁吉亚战争后受到刺激而进行的大规模现代化改装的成本将大增。但是长久地看，乌克兰面临的经济压力更大，因为乌克兰90%的军事出口是给俄国的。

克里姆林宫对此事很重视，周三的政府会议上，普京下令采取紧急措施预防乌克兰零件突然断供。普京对部长们说，“我们要赶紧找俄国公司了解生产这些东西的时间和成本，”工业部长说，从乌克兰进口的“民用和防务”产品价值150亿美元以上。分析家说，其中主要的是军用的。
   塔斯社的军事专家说，“这真是不好的消息，”因为与乌克兰的军事合作是关键的。
   尽管俄、乌合作已远远不如苏联时代，乌克兰仍在俄国的武器生产上提供很多关键的零件。
   2009年基辅的Razumkov 中心报告说，绝大多数俄国武装直升机的发动机是乌克兰提供的，俄国战斗机上一半的空空导弹，以及海空军的多种发动机由乌克兰提供。
   基辅安东诺夫公司是著名的飞机制造商，包括安-70.俄国空军正准备接收60架这种短距离起降飞机，现在可能要吹了。
   专家说，甚至俄国的新型伊尔-476运输机也离不开乌克兰零件，如果在这些领域停止合作，俄国将受到伤害。
   苏联时代在第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克制造的SS-18撒旦多弹头洲际导弹仍需要乌克兰专家维护。不过，Razumkov报告说，新一代的俄国战略导弹，包括白杨M型，将全部在俄国生产。

克里姆林宫还担心乌克兰会出售其军事机密。
俄国外交部门本周提交报告称，生产SS18导弹的南方机械厂在和好几个国家的代表接触，谈判重型洲际弹道导弹的生产技术。
该报告说，“尽管现在乌克兰很乱，现在的政府应该尽责”遵守法律条款和国际惯例，阻止导弹技术扩散。
一些俄国网友说，乌克兰在试图向土耳其这个北约国家卖重型导弹技术。
专家说，俄国依赖乌克兰是苏联时代以来的恶习，如果失去乌克兰的合作，会刺激俄国建立自己的国防工业体系。
“我想我们会克服困难的，”“俄国工业会补上损失的，但我们需要投资。”
对于乌克兰，终止和俄国合作会损失巨大。乌克兰的军工很少有整装、总装的，除了T84坦克，一些苏联时代的防空导弹，还有安东诺夫飞机，很难找到新的买家。
乌克兰的军工产业会大片倒闭，工人失业，莫斯科专家说。
“对于俄国，情况糟糕，不过我们会挺过去的。”


Can Russia's military fly without Ukraine's parts?
Russian forces rely on Ukrainian engines, weapons, and aircraft – and Kiev, fearing invasion, is considering pulling the plug on its supplies.
Christian Science Monitor
By Fred Weir 7 hours ago

Russia's sleek new military machine, currently poised on Ukraine's eastern borders, has a problem: It runs on components produced in Ukraine, which are still being delivered by Ukrainian companies.
And now, Ukraine's beleaguered interim government is warning that it might call a halt to all arms supplies to Russia: "Manufacturing products for Russia that will later be aimed against us would be complete insanity," Vitaliy Yarema, Kiev's first deputy prime minister, said.
Such a move, experts say, could cause serious damage to Russia's military capacity, by greatly increasing the costs of the sweeping modernization ordered by the Kremlin after Russia's 2008 war with Georgia exposed serious shortcomings in the country's military preparedness. But in the longer term, experts add, the economic pain is likely to be felt more deeply in Ukraine, for whom Russia is the irreplaceable market for about 90 percent of its military exports.

RUSSO-UKRAINIAN MILITARY INDUSTRY

The Kremlin is taking the prospect of a cutoff very seriously. At a government meeting Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin ordered emergency measures to work around any sudden cutoff of military components from Ukraine and promised to find funds to pay for it. "We need to look ahead and work out which Russian companies, in what time frame, and at what cost could produce these goods," Mr. Putin told his ministers.
Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov told Putin that the value of outstanding orders from Ukraine in the "civilian and defense" sectors is more than $15 billion. Analysts say a major part of that would be military parts and equipment.
"This is a really unpleasant moment for Russia," because military cooperation with Ukraine was vital, says Viktor Litovkin, a military expert with the official ITAR-Tass news agency.
Though military integration between Russia and Ukraine is well down from its Soviet-era peak, Ukraine still makes a surprising number of essential parts that go into modern Russian weaponry.
According to a 2009 survey by Kiev's Razumkov Center, Ukrainian factories produce the engines that power most Russian combat helicopters; about half of the air-to-air missiles deployed on Russian fighter planes; and a range of engines used by Russian aircraft and naval vessels. The state-owned Antonov works in Kiev makes a famous range of transport aircraft, including the modern AN-70. The Russian Air Force was to receive 60 of the sleek new short-takeoff-and-landing aircraft, which now it may have to do without.
Valentin Badrak, director of the Center of Army Studies in Kiev, says that even Russia's new Ilyushin Il-476 transport aircraft, which is built in the central Russian city of Ulyanovsk, cannot be produced without Ukrainian spare parts. He says Russia will be hurt by a cutoff of cooperation in "several spheres.... In Ukraine we have about two dozen companies that had projects with Russia important to Russia's security and defense."

The mainstay of Russia's strategic missile forces is the SS-18 Satan multiple-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile, all of which were produced in Soviet times at the giant Yuzhmash works in Dnipropetrovsk, and which still rely on Ukrainian expertise to keep in working order. However, the Razumkov report notes that Russia's next generation of strategic missiles, including the mobile Topol-M, are entirely produced in Russia.

"We have our own specialists who can service the Satan missiles," says Mr. Litovkin. "The problem is mostly a legal one," because the Ukrainians have the propriety rights to do that work, he adds.


  

SELLING RUSSIAN SECRETS?
The Kremlin may also be worried that a Ukraine freed from its contractual obligations to Moscow might go out and sell Russian military secrets to other countries.
Russia's foreign ministry posted an unusual note earlier this week warning that Ukrainian representatives of Yuzhmash, which built the SS-18, were meeting with "representatives of some countries, regarding the sale of a production technology for heavy-class intercontinental ballistic missiles."
It added "we trust that despite the complicated foreign policy situation in Ukraine and the lack of legitimate supreme authorities, the current leaders of the country will be responsible, will fully comply with their obligation" to fulfill legal requirements and international rules against the proliferation of missile technologies.
Some Russian bloggers suggested that Ukraine was trying to sell Russian heavy missile technology to Turkey, a NATO country.
COSTS FOR UKRAINE
Experts say that Russia's dependence on Ukraine is a Soviet-era habit that, once broken, will prove to be a boost to Russia's own military-industrial development.
"I think we will survive this stroke of misfortune," says Litovkin. "Russian industry can compensate for the losses, but it will require investment and may take some time."
For Ukraine, on the other hand, severing military manufacturing ties with Russia could be devastating in the long run. Ukraine makes few complete weapons systems – other than T-84 tanks, some Soviet-era air defense missiles, and Antonov planes – and would struggle to find alternative markets for its mainstay production of Russian military hardware components.
"For the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, it will be a disaster," leading to plant closures and tens of thousands of unemployed workers, predicts Igor Korotchenko, director of the independent Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow.
"As for Russia, the situation is bad," he adds, "but we'll survive."


基督教箴言报7小时前报道

离开乌克兰零件，俄国军队会不会散架？
俄国军队以来乌克兰发动机、武器、飞机——基辅面临侵略，考虑停止供货。
俄国部署在东乌克兰边境的精锐之师面临小小的麻烦：它需要乌克兰生产的零件。
乌克兰临时政府在困境中发出警告，可能停止供应武器给俄国。基辅的第一副总理Vitaliy Yarema说，“帮俄国人造武器，然后来对付我们，是愚蠢行为。”
专家说这将导致俄国战斗力受损，因为俄军在2008年格鲁吉亚战争后受到刺激而进行的大规模现代化改装的成本将大增。但是长久地看，乌克兰面临的经济压力更大，因为乌克兰90%的军事出口是给俄国的。

克里姆林宫对此事很重视，周三的政府会议上，普京下令采取紧急措施预防乌克兰零件突然断供。普京对部长们说，“我们要赶紧找俄国公司了解生产这些东西的时间和成本，”工业部长说，从乌克兰进口的“民用和防务”产品价值150亿美元以上。分析家说，其中主要的是军用的。
   塔斯社的军事专家说，“这真是不好的消息，”因为与乌克兰的军事合作是关键的。
   尽管俄、乌合作已远远不如苏联时代，乌克兰仍在俄国的武器生产上提供很多关键的零件。
   2009年基辅的Razumkov 中心报告说，绝大多数俄国武装直升机的发动机是乌克兰提供的，俄国战斗机上一半的空空导弹，以及海空军的多种发动机由乌克兰提供。
   基辅安东诺夫公司是著名的飞机制造商，包括安-70.俄国空军正准备接收60架这种短距离起降飞机，现在可能要吹了。
   专家说，甚至俄国的新型伊尔-476运输机也离不开乌克兰零件，如果在这些领域停止合作，俄国将受到伤害。
   苏联时代在第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克制造的SS-18撒旦多弹头洲际导弹仍需要乌克兰专家维护。不过，Razumkov报告说，新一代的俄国战略导弹，包括白杨M型，将全部在俄国生产。

克里姆林宫还担心乌克兰会出售其军事机密。
俄国外交部门本周提交报告称，生产SS18导弹的南方机械厂在和好几个国家的代表接触，谈判重型洲际弹道导弹的生产技术。
该报告说，“尽管现在乌克兰很乱，现在的政府应该尽责”遵守法律条款和国际惯例，阻止导弹技术扩散。
一些俄国网友说，乌克兰在试图向土耳其这个北约国家卖重型导弹技术。
专家说，俄国依赖乌克兰是苏联时代以来的恶习，如果失去乌克兰的合作，会刺激俄国建立自己的国防工业体系。
“我想我们会克服困难的，”“俄国工业会补上损失的，但我们需要投资。”
对于乌克兰，终止和俄国合作会损失巨大。乌克兰的军工很少有整装、总装的，除了T84坦克，一些苏联时代的防空导弹，还有安东诺夫飞机，很难找到新的买家。
乌克兰的军工产业会大片倒闭，工人失业，莫斯科专家说。
“对于俄国，情况糟糕，不过我们会挺过去的。”


Can Russia's military fly without Ukraine's parts?
Russian forces rely on Ukrainian engines, weapons, and aircraft – and Kiev, fearing invasion, is considering pulling the plug on its supplies.
Christian Science Monitor
By Fred Weir 7 hours ago

Russia's sleek new military machine, currently poised on Ukraine's eastern borders, has a problem: It runs on components produced in Ukraine, which are still being delivered by Ukrainian companies.
And now, Ukraine's beleaguered interim government is warning that it might call a halt to all arms supplies to Russia: "Manufacturing products for Russia that will later be aimed against us would be complete insanity," Vitaliy Yarema, Kiev's first deputy prime minister, said.
Such a move, experts say, could cause serious damage to Russia's military capacity, by greatly increasing the costs of the sweeping modernization ordered by the Kremlin after Russia's 2008 war with Georgia exposed serious shortcomings in the country's military preparedness. But in the longer term, experts add, the economic pain is likely to be felt more deeply in Ukraine, for whom Russia is the irreplaceable market for about 90 percent of its military exports.

RUSSO-UKRAINIAN MILITARY INDUSTRY

The Kremlin is taking the prospect of a cutoff very seriously. At a government meeting Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin ordered emergency measures to work around any sudden cutoff of military components from Ukraine and promised to find funds to pay for it. "We need to look ahead and work out which Russian companies, in what time frame, and at what cost could produce these goods," Mr. Putin told his ministers.
Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov told Putin that the value of outstanding orders from Ukraine in the "civilian and defense" sectors is more than $15 billion. Analysts say a major part of that would be military parts and equipment.
"This is a really unpleasant moment for Russia," because military cooperation with Ukraine was vital, says Viktor Litovkin, a military expert with the official ITAR-Tass news agency.
Though military integration between Russia and Ukraine is well down from its Soviet-era peak, Ukraine still makes a surprising number of essential parts that go into modern Russian weaponry.
According to a 2009 survey by Kiev's Razumkov Center, Ukrainian factories produce the engines that power most Russian combat helicopters; about half of the air-to-air missiles deployed on Russian fighter planes; and a range of engines used by Russian aircraft and naval vessels. The state-owned Antonov works in Kiev makes a famous range of transport aircraft, including the modern AN-70. The Russian Air Force was to receive 60 of the sleek new short-takeoff-and-landing aircraft, which now it may have to do without.
Valentin Badrak, director of the Center of Army Studies in Kiev, says that even Russia's new Ilyushin Il-476 transport aircraft, which is built in the central Russian city of Ulyanovsk, cannot be produced without Ukrainian spare parts. He says Russia will be hurt by a cutoff of cooperation in "several spheres.... In Ukraine we have about two dozen companies that had projects with Russia important to Russia's security and defense."

The mainstay of Russia's strategic missile forces is the SS-18 Satan multiple-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile, all of which were produced in Soviet times at the giant Yuzhmash works in Dnipropetrovsk, and which still rely on Ukrainian expertise to keep in working order. However, the Razumkov report notes that Russia's next generation of strategic missiles, including the mobile Topol-M, are entirely produced in Russia.

"We have our own specialists who can service the Satan missiles," says Mr. Litovkin. "The problem is mostly a legal one," because the Ukrainians have the propriety rights to do that work, he adds.


  

SELLING RUSSIAN SECRETS?
The Kremlin may also be worried that a Ukraine freed from its contractual obligations to Moscow might go out and sell Russian military secrets to other countries.
Russia's foreign ministry posted an unusual note earlier this week warning that Ukrainian representatives of Yuzhmash, which built the SS-18, were meeting with "representatives of some countries, regarding the sale of a production technology for heavy-class intercontinental ballistic missiles."
It added "we trust that despite the complicated foreign policy situation in Ukraine and the lack of legitimate supreme authorities, the current leaders of the country will be responsible, will fully comply with their obligation" to fulfill legal requirements and international rules against the proliferation of missile technologies.
Some Russian bloggers suggested that Ukraine was trying to sell Russian heavy missile technology to Turkey, a NATO country.
COSTS FOR UKRAINE
Experts say that Russia's dependence on Ukraine is a Soviet-era habit that, once broken, will prove to be a boost to Russia's own military-industrial development.
"I think we will survive this stroke of misfortune," says Litovkin. "Russian industry can compensate for the losses, but it will require investment and may take some time."
For Ukraine, on the other hand, severing military manufacturing ties with Russia could be devastating in the long run. Ukraine makes few complete weapons systems – other than T-84 tanks, some Soviet-era air defense missiles, and Antonov planes – and would struggle to find alternative markets for its mainstay production of Russian military hardware components.
"For the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, it will be a disaster," leading to plant closures and tens of thousands of unemployed workers, predicts Igor Korotchenko, director of the independent Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow.
"As for Russia, the situation is bad," he adds, "but we'll survive."