超级军网國民黨掀中國熱 陳水扁面臨兩難困境
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/26 05:28:26
路透台北電---當國民黨主席連戰往訪中國時，是急於尋找歷史地位的二連敗總統落選人，亦是自從1949年國共內戰結束後第一位踏上大陸土地的國民黨主席。
分析家表示，與中國國家主席胡錦濤的歷史性握手之後，連戰的政治生涯似乎鹹魚翻身，如果他的手段夠高明，甚至可能以中國政策把政治對手陳水扁總統逼入困境。
在週五於北京與胡錦濤的歷史性會談中，連戰同意結束數十年敵對狀態，合力在亞洲最危險的爆發點避免戰爭，並促使恢復自1999年停滯至今的對話。
分析家認為此舉對傾向台灣獨立的陳水扁總統施加壓力，使他也與中國和解，否則可能被2,300萬台灣人民視為與北京緩和緊張氣氛的最大障礙。
倫敦大學亞非學院(SOAS)現代中國研究所所長丁斯(Phil Deans)表示，「我認為陳水扁倉皇失措，不確定接著該怎麼辦。商界人士對他與他傷害兩岸投資氣氛的作法日漸不滿。」他指出，商界對陳水扁，以及他破壞在對岸投資氣氛的行徑日益失望。
除非陳水扁與民進黨宣布放棄台獨，否則北京拒絕與他們打交道。而支持維持現狀，最終與民主中國統一的國民黨則同意，促進兩岸貿易，並為台灣農產品出口鋪平道路。這將有利於以農業為主的台灣南部，也就是陳水扁的票倉。
民進黨隨即進行損害控制，痛批連胡共識保證空泛，並抨擊連戰賣台。儘管塵埃尚未落定，但國民黨引發的中國熱對它究竟是利是弊，仍有待觀察。(完)
--編譯 李建興/楊幼蘭;審校 鄒衡天路透台北電---當國民黨主席連戰往訪中國時，是急於尋找歷史地位的二連敗總統落選人，亦是自從1949年國共內戰結束後第一位踏上大陸土地的國民黨主席。
分析家表示，與中國國家主席胡錦濤的歷史性握手之後，連戰的政治生涯似乎鹹魚翻身，如果他的手段夠高明，甚至可能以中國政策把政治對手陳水扁總統逼入困境。
在週五於北京與胡錦濤的歷史性會談中，連戰同意結束數十年敵對狀態，合力在亞洲最危險的爆發點避免戰爭，並促使恢復自1999年停滯至今的對話。
分析家認為此舉對傾向台灣獨立的陳水扁總統施加壓力，使他也與中國和解，否則可能被2,300萬台灣人民視為與北京緩和緊張氣氛的最大障礙。
倫敦大學亞非學院(SOAS)現代中國研究所所長丁斯(Phil Deans)表示，「我認為陳水扁倉皇失措，不確定接著該怎麼辦。商界人士對他與他傷害兩岸投資氣氛的作法日漸不滿。」他指出，商界對陳水扁，以及他破壞在對岸投資氣氛的行徑日益失望。
除非陳水扁與民進黨宣布放棄台獨，否則北京拒絕與他們打交道。而支持維持現狀，最終與民主中國統一的國民黨則同意，促進兩岸貿易，並為台灣農產品出口鋪平道路。這將有利於以農業為主的台灣南部，也就是陳水扁的票倉。
民進黨隨即進行損害控制，痛批連胡共識保證空泛，並抨擊連戰賣台。儘管塵埃尚未落定，但國民黨引發的中國熱對它究竟是利是弊，仍有待觀察。(完)
--編譯 李建興/楊幼蘭;審校 鄒衡天
分析家表示，與中國國家主席胡錦濤的歷史性握手之後，連戰的政治生涯似乎鹹魚翻身，如果他的手段夠高明，甚至可能以中國政策把政治對手陳水扁總統逼入困境。
在週五於北京與胡錦濤的歷史性會談中，連戰同意結束數十年敵對狀態，合力在亞洲最危險的爆發點避免戰爭，並促使恢復自1999年停滯至今的對話。
分析家認為此舉對傾向台灣獨立的陳水扁總統施加壓力，使他也與中國和解，否則可能被2,300萬台灣人民視為與北京緩和緊張氣氛的最大障礙。
倫敦大學亞非學院(SOAS)現代中國研究所所長丁斯(Phil Deans)表示，「我認為陳水扁倉皇失措，不確定接著該怎麼辦。商界人士對他與他傷害兩岸投資氣氛的作法日漸不滿。」他指出，商界對陳水扁，以及他破壞在對岸投資氣氛的行徑日益失望。
除非陳水扁與民進黨宣布放棄台獨，否則北京拒絕與他們打交道。而支持維持現狀，最終與民主中國統一的國民黨則同意，促進兩岸貿易，並為台灣農產品出口鋪平道路。這將有利於以農業為主的台灣南部，也就是陳水扁的票倉。
民進黨隨即進行損害控制，痛批連胡共識保證空泛，並抨擊連戰賣台。儘管塵埃尚未落定，但國民黨引發的中國熱對它究竟是利是弊，仍有待觀察。(完)
--編譯 李建興/楊幼蘭;審校 鄒衡天路透台北電---當國民黨主席連戰往訪中國時，是急於尋找歷史地位的二連敗總統落選人，亦是自從1949年國共內戰結束後第一位踏上大陸土地的國民黨主席。
分析家表示，與中國國家主席胡錦濤的歷史性握手之後，連戰的政治生涯似乎鹹魚翻身，如果他的手段夠高明，甚至可能以中國政策把政治對手陳水扁總統逼入困境。
在週五於北京與胡錦濤的歷史性會談中，連戰同意結束數十年敵對狀態，合力在亞洲最危險的爆發點避免戰爭，並促使恢復自1999年停滯至今的對話。
分析家認為此舉對傾向台灣獨立的陳水扁總統施加壓力，使他也與中國和解，否則可能被2,300萬台灣人民視為與北京緩和緊張氣氛的最大障礙。
倫敦大學亞非學院(SOAS)現代中國研究所所長丁斯(Phil Deans)表示，「我認為陳水扁倉皇失措，不確定接著該怎麼辦。商界人士對他與他傷害兩岸投資氣氛的作法日漸不滿。」他指出，商界對陳水扁，以及他破壞在對岸投資氣氛的行徑日益失望。
除非陳水扁與民進黨宣布放棄台獨，否則北京拒絕與他們打交道。而支持維持現狀，最終與民主中國統一的國民黨則同意，促進兩岸貿易，並為台灣農產品出口鋪平道路。這將有利於以農業為主的台灣南部，也就是陳水扁的票倉。
民進黨隨即進行損害控制，痛批連胡共識保證空泛，並抨擊連戰賣台。儘管塵埃尚未落定，但國民黨引發的中國熱對它究竟是利是弊，仍有待觀察。(完)
--編譯 李建興/楊幼蘭;審校 鄒衡天
以下是路透社原文，大家参考。
ANALYSIS - Taiwan's Chen seen in dilemma over KMT China fever
By Tiffany Wu
TAIPEI (Reuters) - When Taiwan opposition leader Lien Chan left for China, he was a twice-failed presidential contender seeking a place in history as the first Kuomintang (KMT) chief to set foot on Chinese soil since the civil war ended in 1949.
After a momentous handshake with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Lien has rejuvenated his political career and -- if he plays his cards right -- might even push his nemesis, President Chen Shui-bian, into a quandary over his China policy, analysts say.
At a historic meeting in Beijing on Friday, Chen's biggest opponents agreed to end decades of enmity, work together to avoid war in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints, and facilitate the resumption of fence-mending dialogue suspended since 1999.
Analysts say the move puts pressure on the pro-independence Chen to reconcile with China too or risk being seen by Taiwan's 23 million people as the main hurdle to reducing tensions with Beijing, which claims the democratic island as its own.
"I think Chen's been quite wrong-footed and isn't quite sure how to play it," said Phil Deans, head of the Contemporary China Institute at the University of London's SOAS.
"The business community is increasingly disillusioned with Chen Shui-bian and the way that he's damaged the investment climate across the Strait," he said.
With its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, Beijing refuses to deal with Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) unless they first renounce the vision of an independent Taiwan.
The KMT, which supports maintaining the status quo and eventual unification with a democratic China, agreed with Beijing to discuss a common market, boost trade across the Taiwan Strait and smooth the way for Taiwan farm exports, which would benefit the island's agricultural south, a core support base for Chen.
The DPP party machine immediately kicked into damage control, slamming the Lien-Hu consensus as empty promises and blasting Lien for selling out Taiwan by paying homage to an enemy country.
The DPP accused Lien of failing to reassert Taiwan's sovereignty or to raise the most pressing concerns of its people, such as over China's anti-secession law, which sanctioned the use of force against the island and was widely condemned in Taiwan.
DIVIDED TAIWAN
While the dust has yet to settle and it remains to be seen whether the KMT's China fever will finally work for or against it, an early opinion poll suggests Lien's visit is winning marks.
The poll conducted by Fu Jen Catholic University and commissioned by ETTV cable news found 53 percent were satisfied with Lien's performance at his meeting with Hu and 36 percent were not. It did not give a sample size.
Chen's top China policymaker denied any pressure, but said Lien's visit weakens Taiwan's hand against its giant neighbour.
"What the KMT's trip to China does actually is further divide Taiwan," Mainland Affairs Council chairman Joseph Wu told Reuters. "If the KMT is going on its own way, it's going to create chaos in Taiwan," he said, pointing to a violent protest by hundreds of people when Lien departed last week.
Besides having the red carpet rolled out for him by China's leaders, which was expected, the KMT chairman was also embraced by thousands of ordinary Chinese and his speech at the capital's Peking University earned a standing ovation.
While critics say Lien failed to emphasise Taiwan people's desire to be masters of their own fate, others argue that he was more eloquent than expected and that he did stand up for the Republic of China, Taiwan's official title.
"Lien Chan is genuinely seen as the most dull and boring politician in Taiwan. He never pulled the kind of crowd and reaction in Taiwan as he did in China," said Steve Tseng, a Taiwan expert at St Antony's College, University of Oxford.
"If a senior political figure from Taiwan can go to China and call Taiwan by its official name, does that not improve the dignity of Taiwan?"
OPEN DOORS?
The KMT, which ruled Taiwan for five decades before losing presidential elections to Chen in 2000 and 2004, will try to tell people it has found a viable alternative for dealing with China.
The party risks being painted as traitors by pro-independence groups, analysts say, but success would put Chen in a dilemma.
If the DPP reconciles with China, it may help further Chen's strategy of moving towards the centre of Taiwan politics to widen its support base. But the party also risks alienating pro-independence advocates who were its core voters.
"It's a delicate political game for him to play," said Tsang. "If the mood really is swinging to the side of Lien ... then I think Chen won't do anything. He will let it blow over first."
The biggest winner in all this appears to be China, whose united front tactics of divide and conquer seem to have reduced the animosity sparked by the anti-secession law, analysts say.
Beijing has another opportunity to fete a Taiwan opposition leader this week when James Soong of the People First Party arrives on the mainland on Thursday for an eight-day trip.
But while Soong also supports unification like the KMT, some analysts consider him to be an unofficial envoy for Chen because the two signed a 10-point consensus on China ties in February.
Soong has said the consensus, which includes pledges not to change the political status quo, will form the basis of his discussions with Hu, expected to take place on May 10 or 11.
(Additional reporting by Lindsay Beck)
ANALYSIS - Taiwan's Chen seen in dilemma over KMT China fever
By Tiffany Wu
TAIPEI (Reuters) - When Taiwan opposition leader Lien Chan left for China, he was a twice-failed presidential contender seeking a place in history as the first Kuomintang (KMT) chief to set foot on Chinese soil since the civil war ended in 1949.
After a momentous handshake with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Lien has rejuvenated his political career and -- if he plays his cards right -- might even push his nemesis, President Chen Shui-bian, into a quandary over his China policy, analysts say.
At a historic meeting in Beijing on Friday, Chen's biggest opponents agreed to end decades of enmity, work together to avoid war in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints, and facilitate the resumption of fence-mending dialogue suspended since 1999.
Analysts say the move puts pressure on the pro-independence Chen to reconcile with China too or risk being seen by Taiwan's 23 million people as the main hurdle to reducing tensions with Beijing, which claims the democratic island as its own.
"I think Chen's been quite wrong-footed and isn't quite sure how to play it," said Phil Deans, head of the Contemporary China Institute at the University of London's SOAS.
"The business community is increasingly disillusioned with Chen Shui-bian and the way that he's damaged the investment climate across the Strait," he said.
With its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, Beijing refuses to deal with Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) unless they first renounce the vision of an independent Taiwan.
The KMT, which supports maintaining the status quo and eventual unification with a democratic China, agreed with Beijing to discuss a common market, boost trade across the Taiwan Strait and smooth the way for Taiwan farm exports, which would benefit the island's agricultural south, a core support base for Chen.
The DPP party machine immediately kicked into damage control, slamming the Lien-Hu consensus as empty promises and blasting Lien for selling out Taiwan by paying homage to an enemy country.
The DPP accused Lien of failing to reassert Taiwan's sovereignty or to raise the most pressing concerns of its people, such as over China's anti-secession law, which sanctioned the use of force against the island and was widely condemned in Taiwan.
DIVIDED TAIWAN
While the dust has yet to settle and it remains to be seen whether the KMT's China fever will finally work for or against it, an early opinion poll suggests Lien's visit is winning marks.
The poll conducted by Fu Jen Catholic University and commissioned by ETTV cable news found 53 percent were satisfied with Lien's performance at his meeting with Hu and 36 percent were not. It did not give a sample size.
Chen's top China policymaker denied any pressure, but said Lien's visit weakens Taiwan's hand against its giant neighbour.
"What the KMT's trip to China does actually is further divide Taiwan," Mainland Affairs Council chairman Joseph Wu told Reuters. "If the KMT is going on its own way, it's going to create chaos in Taiwan," he said, pointing to a violent protest by hundreds of people when Lien departed last week.
Besides having the red carpet rolled out for him by China's leaders, which was expected, the KMT chairman was also embraced by thousands of ordinary Chinese and his speech at the capital's Peking University earned a standing ovation.
While critics say Lien failed to emphasise Taiwan people's desire to be masters of their own fate, others argue that he was more eloquent than expected and that he did stand up for the Republic of China, Taiwan's official title.
"Lien Chan is genuinely seen as the most dull and boring politician in Taiwan. He never pulled the kind of crowd and reaction in Taiwan as he did in China," said Steve Tseng, a Taiwan expert at St Antony's College, University of Oxford.
"If a senior political figure from Taiwan can go to China and call Taiwan by its official name, does that not improve the dignity of Taiwan?"
OPEN DOORS?
The KMT, which ruled Taiwan for five decades before losing presidential elections to Chen in 2000 and 2004, will try to tell people it has found a viable alternative for dealing with China.
The party risks being painted as traitors by pro-independence groups, analysts say, but success would put Chen in a dilemma.
If the DPP reconciles with China, it may help further Chen's strategy of moving towards the centre of Taiwan politics to widen its support base. But the party also risks alienating pro-independence advocates who were its core voters.
"It's a delicate political game for him to play," said Tsang. "If the mood really is swinging to the side of Lien ... then I think Chen won't do anything. He will let it blow over first."
The biggest winner in all this appears to be China, whose united front tactics of divide and conquer seem to have reduced the animosity sparked by the anti-secession law, analysts say.
Beijing has another opportunity to fete a Taiwan opposition leader this week when James Soong of the People First Party arrives on the mainland on Thursday for an eight-day trip.
But while Soong also supports unification like the KMT, some analysts consider him to be an unofficial envoy for Chen because the two signed a 10-point consensus on China ties in February.
Soong has said the consensus, which includes pledges not to change the political status quo, will form the basis of his discussions with Hu, expected to take place on May 10 or 11.
(Additional reporting by Lindsay Beck)
国民党对台政治的影响如何，还要看国民党的作为和手段
我认为国民党在台湾的政治腰杆还要再硬一些，就是要强硬坚持九二共识，强硬要求三通，强硬要求两岸经济联系再紧密一些，严格贯彻连胡公报，国共两党定期沟通
剩下的，就是中共的事了
国共联合反台独，呵呵，就看国共如何联合了
我认为国民党在台湾的政治腰杆还要再硬一些，就是要强硬坚持九二共识，强硬要求三通，强硬要求两岸经济联系再紧密一些，严格贯彻连胡公报，国共两党定期沟通
剩下的，就是中共的事了
国共联合反台独，呵呵，就看国共如何联合了